How to bet New England at Miami
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
New England Patriots (-11) at Miami Dolphins
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent on New England
Phil Steele
This marks the fourth road game in five weeks for New England, with another key trip to Pittsburgh on the horizon. The schedule hasn't been an issue for the Patriots, however, as they've rattled off eight straight victories overall, including six consecutive ATS, following an easy win in Buffalo. The Dolphins had no issue disposing of the Broncos last week in South Beach behind a season-best 35 points. With Miami on just a 10-21-2 ATS run in division matchups dating back to 2012, and the Patriots earning an easy 18-point victory just two weeks ago in Foxborough, I'll give the visiting team the lean here despite the suspension of tight end Rob Gronkowski.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Erin Rynning
It's still about Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense, as they lead the NFL in yards per game. Look for their hurry-up attack in the first half with a goal of putting the game away early. Their defense has done an admirable job keeping teams off the scoreboard, although they've allowed plenty of yardage. Of course, the Dolphins know what they're up against, as they'll have to score 20-plus points to have any chance with an improving passing unit. Jay Cutler is always an option for a turnover in helping the opposition score.
Pick: First-half over
Warren Sharp
In their meeting a couple of weeks ago, a costly Matt Moore turnover in field goal range right before the half cost the Dolphins the chance at the full-game cover. The confidence has returned to the Dolphins with their huge victory over the Broncos last week, but the Patriots' stingy red zone defense will make it difficult for Cutler & Co. to score enough to keep up. The Dolphins like to pass early and often, and they should look to pass the ball to their running backs in this game, as the Patriots rank dead last in defending RB passes. On the other side, the Patriots should regain the services of WR Chris Hogan but will lose Gronkowski. Losing Gronkowski certainly is a big downgrade, so it will be interesting to see how the Patriots combat that missing piece. They could attempt to implement a short-pass offense with occasional deep shots to Hogan and Brandin Cooks, or they could look to run the ball more frequently. In their previous meeting, the Patriots ran for 5.2 yards per carry and recorded a 53 percent rushing success rate, with Dion Lewis posting a ridiculous 7.5 yards per carry and a 73 percent success rate.
Pick: Lean Dolphins
Mike Clay
Prediction: New England 29, Miami 16
The pick: New England and the under -- NE -11, 47
John Parolin's prop bets
2.5 pass TD by Tom Brady (Over +115, Under -135)
The losses are starting to pile up for Brady -- if not on the scoreboard, then on the depth chart. Brady will face the Dolphins in Miami without Julian Edelman and Gronkowski. Since Gronkowski was drafted in 2010, Brady has a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with either of his top weapons on the field and a 2.1-1 TD-INT ratio without both of them. Brady really feels the loss of Gronk in the red zone, where he's completed only 57 percent of his throws without Gronk since 2010.
It doesn't matter who the quarterback is; three touchdowns is a lot to expect. Brady has had a healthy Gronkowski for this season and still put up three touchdowns in only five of his 12 starts. It also matters that this has been one of the toughest road venues for Brady throughout his career. Miami has given Brady more road losses than he's had in Buffalo and at the Jets combined. He's thrown three or more touchdowns in only four of his 11 starts on South Beach. Factor in the Gronkowski suspension, and two is the most likely outcome.
The play: Under
216.5 passing yards by Jay Cutler (O/U -110)
Remember how the Patriots' defense started the season? New England was the first defense in NFL history to allow an opponent to pass for 300 yards in six straight games over the first six weeks of the season. It has come a long way since -- the Patriots' defense has allowed 5.8 yards per attempt since Week 7, best in the AFC and second only to the red-hot Eagles. This pass defense isn't a punch line anymore, plus Cutler simply hasn't been effective this year. Cutler is averaging 6.08 yards per attempt this year, 33rd among 35 qualified passers and ahead of only DeShone Kizer and Joe Flacco.
Even the modest requirement to hit the over here would be a stretch for Cutler. He would need to throw 37 passes (at 5.9 per attempt) to hit the over, something he's done in only three of his ten games this season. A high-volume Cutler game doesn't make sense out of the gate, either, as Miami has run the ball pretty well since the Jay Ajayi trade. The Dolphins are averaging 4.7 yards per rush since Week 8 (the first week after Ajayi was shipped to Philadelphia), the eighth-best mark in the league. Miami rushers are averaging 2.32 yards after contact per rush in that span, second best. Cutler could hit 217 in garbage time, but it's a tall order.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
New England Patriots (-11) at Miami Dolphins
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent on New England
Phil Steele
This marks the fourth road game in five weeks for New England, with another key trip to Pittsburgh on the horizon. The schedule hasn't been an issue for the Patriots, however, as they've rattled off eight straight victories overall, including six consecutive ATS, following an easy win in Buffalo. The Dolphins had no issue disposing of the Broncos last week in South Beach behind a season-best 35 points. With Miami on just a 10-21-2 ATS run in division matchups dating back to 2012, and the Patriots earning an easy 18-point victory just two weeks ago in Foxborough, I'll give the visiting team the lean here despite the suspension of tight end Rob Gronkowski.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Erin Rynning
It's still about Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense, as they lead the NFL in yards per game. Look for their hurry-up attack in the first half with a goal of putting the game away early. Their defense has done an admirable job keeping teams off the scoreboard, although they've allowed plenty of yardage. Of course, the Dolphins know what they're up against, as they'll have to score 20-plus points to have any chance with an improving passing unit. Jay Cutler is always an option for a turnover in helping the opposition score.
Pick: First-half over
Warren Sharp
In their meeting a couple of weeks ago, a costly Matt Moore turnover in field goal range right before the half cost the Dolphins the chance at the full-game cover. The confidence has returned to the Dolphins with their huge victory over the Broncos last week, but the Patriots' stingy red zone defense will make it difficult for Cutler & Co. to score enough to keep up. The Dolphins like to pass early and often, and they should look to pass the ball to their running backs in this game, as the Patriots rank dead last in defending RB passes. On the other side, the Patriots should regain the services of WR Chris Hogan but will lose Gronkowski. Losing Gronkowski certainly is a big downgrade, so it will be interesting to see how the Patriots combat that missing piece. They could attempt to implement a short-pass offense with occasional deep shots to Hogan and Brandin Cooks, or they could look to run the ball more frequently. In their previous meeting, the Patriots ran for 5.2 yards per carry and recorded a 53 percent rushing success rate, with Dion Lewis posting a ridiculous 7.5 yards per carry and a 73 percent success rate.
Pick: Lean Dolphins
Mike Clay
Prediction: New England 29, Miami 16
The pick: New England and the under -- NE -11, 47
John Parolin's prop bets
2.5 pass TD by Tom Brady (Over +115, Under -135)
The losses are starting to pile up for Brady -- if not on the scoreboard, then on the depth chart. Brady will face the Dolphins in Miami without Julian Edelman and Gronkowski. Since Gronkowski was drafted in 2010, Brady has a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with either of his top weapons on the field and a 2.1-1 TD-INT ratio without both of them. Brady really feels the loss of Gronk in the red zone, where he's completed only 57 percent of his throws without Gronk since 2010.
It doesn't matter who the quarterback is; three touchdowns is a lot to expect. Brady has had a healthy Gronkowski for this season and still put up three touchdowns in only five of his 12 starts. It also matters that this has been one of the toughest road venues for Brady throughout his career. Miami has given Brady more road losses than he's had in Buffalo and at the Jets combined. He's thrown three or more touchdowns in only four of his 11 starts on South Beach. Factor in the Gronkowski suspension, and two is the most likely outcome.
The play: Under
216.5 passing yards by Jay Cutler (O/U -110)
Remember how the Patriots' defense started the season? New England was the first defense in NFL history to allow an opponent to pass for 300 yards in six straight games over the first six weeks of the season. It has come a long way since -- the Patriots' defense has allowed 5.8 yards per attempt since Week 7, best in the AFC and second only to the red-hot Eagles. This pass defense isn't a punch line anymore, plus Cutler simply hasn't been effective this year. Cutler is averaging 6.08 yards per attempt this year, 33rd among 35 qualified passers and ahead of only DeShone Kizer and Joe Flacco.
Even the modest requirement to hit the over here would be a stretch for Cutler. He would need to throw 37 passes (at 5.9 per attempt) to hit the over, something he's done in only three of his ten games this season. A high-volume Cutler game doesn't make sense out of the gate, either, as Miami has run the ball pretty well since the Jay Ajayi trade. The Dolphins are averaging 4.7 yards per rush since Week 8 (the first week after Ajayi was shipped to Philadelphia), the eighth-best mark in the league. Miami rushers are averaging 2.32 yards after contact per rush in that span, second best. Cutler could hit 217 in garbage time, but it's a tall order.
The play: Under
