Powell seems just as dovish as his predecessors so I'll believe it when I see it. In interviews, he has also said the balance wind down will still leave like 2.5-3T on fed balance sheet.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Futures seems to indicate they see a few rate cuts this year but they've been overly hawkish during this cycle.
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Futures seems to indicate they see a few rate cuts this year but they've been overly hawkish during this cycle.
her swan song is set......................the remaining question is not whether she will raise rates but , rather, will she wear blue?
she was in STUNNING white a few weeks back.........don't see that shit happening again................what will happen to her? left to driving a golf cart at 25km/hr at an exclusive resort? playing online chess?....................going to miss her.......:sad3:
she was in STUNNING white a few weeks back.........don't see that shit happening again................what will happen to her? left to driving a golf cart at 25km/hr at an exclusive resort? playing online chess?....................going to miss her.......:sad3:
short term rates should be rising based upon powell's and other fed
statements. long term rates ( think mortgage) will NOT go up
significantly until there is real inflation or at least a strong increase
in inflation expectations. this has lead and will lead to a flatter yield
curve and potentially an inverted yield curve (means short term
rates are higher than long term rates and usually signals recession).
statements. long term rates ( think mortgage) will NOT go up
significantly until there is real inflation or at least a strong increase
in inflation expectations. this has lead and will lead to a flatter yield
curve and potentially an inverted yield curve (means short term
rates are higher than long term rates and usually signals recession).
Janet L. Yellen, America’s first female Fed chair, finishes to ‘standing ovation’
Andrew Wilson, Co-Head of Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:
“In 2018 we think that Powell will mirror Janet Yellen’s approach in 2017 and deliver three rate rises – more than the market is currently pricing in. Market expectations for US monetary policy are in our view too dovish, creating room for a pick-up in market volatility should the current Fed trajectory for rate hikes be recalibrated higher. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the Fed will be reactive to signs of higher inflation or pause to reassess its inflation outlook.”
Andrew Wilson, Co-Head of Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management:
“In 2018 we think that Powell will mirror Janet Yellen’s approach in 2017 and deliver three rate rises – more than the market is currently pricing in. Market expectations for US monetary policy are in our view too dovish, creating room for a pick-up in market volatility should the current Fed trajectory for rate hikes be recalibrated higher. Investors will be watching closely to see whether the Fed will be reactive to signs of higher inflation or pause to reassess its inflation outlook.”
Janet L Yellen;
[FONT="]“While changes in tax policy will likely provide some lift to economic activity in coming years, the magnitude and timing of the macroeconomic effects of any tax package remain uncertain,”..........[/FONT][FONT="]“Participants generally identified changes in tax policy as a factor supporting this modestly stronger outlook, although many noted that much uncertainty remains about the macroeconomic effects of the specific measures that ultimately may be implemented,” [/FONT]
[FONT="]“While changes in tax policy will likely provide some lift to economic activity in coming years, the magnitude and timing of the macroeconomic effects of any tax package remain uncertain,”..........[/FONT][FONT="]“Participants generally identified changes in tax policy as a factor supporting this modestly stronger outlook, although many noted that much uncertainty remains about the macroeconomic effects of the specific measures that ultimately may be implemented,” [/FONT]
unlike the Fed board, Mr Greenspan is clearly not optimistic about the tax cuts. His concern of the debt is oh so ironic.
(Of course, Yellen has REPEATEDLY warned of a potential debt crisis ..going as far as , well, borderline snapping; ' [FONT="]"I would simply say that I am very worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt trajectory.Our current debt-to-GDP ratio of about 75 percent is not frightening but it's also not low. [/FONT][FONT="]It's the type of thing that should keep people awake at night')
Mr Greenspan;
'[/FONT][FONT="]This is a terrible fiscal situation we've got ourselves into.[/FONT][FONT="]The administration is doing tax cuts and a spending decrease, but he's doing them in the wrong order. What we need right now is to focus totally on reducing the debt. [/FONT][FONT="]We're in a stage where if nothing is changed, we're about to go from stagnation to stagflation, with a significant rise in inflation and a wholly significant imbalance in the economy, which is very difficult to anticipate at this stage,But the outlook is not exactly terrific."
[/FONT][FONT="]Asked how much he thought tax reform would contribute to growth, Greenspan said: "Very little. The tax cuts, remember, at the same increase the deficit. All the econometrics that I've seen over the years tell me that when you increase the deficit and you increase the demand for funds, you're crowding out capital investment, and capital investment is the key statistic determining output per hour, that is, productivity."
keep in mind, there are quite a few people out there that feel Mr Greenspan should be in a home, tending to orchids......playing backgammon.....and what not.........
well, going to be fun to watch. Not a fundamentalist , but one thing Mr Greenspan may not be taking into account is growth around the globe. The emerging markets are in 'catch up mode'
eem
ytd daily (numero uno geographically, ytd)
[/FONT]
(Of course, Yellen has REPEATEDLY warned of a potential debt crisis ..going as far as , well, borderline snapping; ' [FONT="]"I would simply say that I am very worried about the sustainability of the U.S. debt trajectory.Our current debt-to-GDP ratio of about 75 percent is not frightening but it's also not low. [/FONT][FONT="]It's the type of thing that should keep people awake at night')
Mr Greenspan;
'[/FONT][FONT="]This is a terrible fiscal situation we've got ourselves into.[/FONT][FONT="]The administration is doing tax cuts and a spending decrease, but he's doing them in the wrong order. What we need right now is to focus totally on reducing the debt. [/FONT][FONT="]We're in a stage where if nothing is changed, we're about to go from stagnation to stagflation, with a significant rise in inflation and a wholly significant imbalance in the economy, which is very difficult to anticipate at this stage,But the outlook is not exactly terrific."
[/FONT][FONT="]Asked how much he thought tax reform would contribute to growth, Greenspan said: "Very little. The tax cuts, remember, at the same increase the deficit. All the econometrics that I've seen over the years tell me that when you increase the deficit and you increase the demand for funds, you're crowding out capital investment, and capital investment is the key statistic determining output per hour, that is, productivity."
keep in mind, there are quite a few people out there that feel Mr Greenspan should be in a home, tending to orchids......playing backgammon.....and what not.........
well, going to be fun to watch. Not a fundamentalist , but one thing Mr Greenspan may not be taking into account is growth around the globe. The emerging markets are in 'catch up mode'
eem
ytd daily (numero uno geographically, ytd)
[/FONT]
