Chonce NFL (week 15)

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Last week (link): 4-3 + .36

Year to Date: 68-53 + 13.64 units

NE - 2.5 (-120) - 2 units
SF (ML) (-125) - 2 units

 

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Colts + 3 (-115) - 1 unit

Hard to leave an island game alone, am I right? But I don't see Denver as being six points better on a neutral field so I will bite
 

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NE/PIT UNDER 54.5 - 1 unit

Think both teams will try and run the ball. Chance for some ugly weather as well. First Half under 26.5 is tempting, but NE is known for scoring a lot in the 2nd QTR, so I will take my chances on the full game instead. But I think UNDER is the way to go.
 

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Det (1st Half) -2.5 (-120)- 1 unit

I feel like I am on an island with this one. But the line has fallen so much that I feel like this is selling high on CHI. Both of these teams are bad, but Detroit is still considerably better. Detroit's point differential is woeful in the 2nd half, so I am trying to mitigate that by going FH.
 

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Det (1st Half) -2.5 (-120)- 1 unit

I feel like I am on an island with this one. But the line has fallen so much that I feel like this is selling high on CHI. Both of these teams are bad, but Detroit is still considerably better. Detroit's point differential is woeful in the 2nd half, so I am trying to mitigate that by going FH.


Not bad. No 2nd half play for me. I do need Marvin Jones to keep up his production for fantasy purposes though.

1-0 today. 1-1 for the week.
 

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Car (FH) ML (-140) - 1 unit

I don't usually bet moneylines, but 1.4 units to win 1 unit is the play. There is a thread on this line being an overreaction to Rodgers' return. I am playing FH in case he pulls out some miracle comeback, which seems plausible. But he should have some rust and he is playing a strong NFC team, coming off a huge win vs Minny at home. This is a tough game, even with Rodgers.
 

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Hou/Jax OVER 39 - 1 unit

Tough card this week. I feel like every game at 4 I can see an edge, but struggle to find anything playable at 1 pm. I may be chasing action, so be warned. Also trying to summon courage to play the NYG and/or CLE, but think I have chickened out. Anyway, I think TJ Yates is a little better than Savage and without Fournette, Bortles is due for at least pick in his own territory, which should given Houston a cheap TD or a pick 6. Hopefully that is enough to go over this total. But as I said, I may be chasing. It is 12:44 and I just decided on this after much deliberation.
 

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holy shit, that NE cover, the NE UNDER and SF all looked like sure losers for a bit there. But I got them all. Wow.

Jimmy G, Gronk and the NFL's crazy catch rules save me. Saved me in fantasy too
 

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Wins:

NE + 2
SF + 2
NE UNDER + 1
DET FH + 1
JAX OVER + 1


Losses:

Indy loss -1.15
LAC loss - -1.1
Car -1.4

I will double check but I thin that means

for the week: 5-3 + 3.35 units

Year to date: 73 - 56 + 16.99 units
 

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