Contrarian NFL betting strategy for Week 15
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER
Just a few weeks left! Hopefully there will be no more blizzards that get in the way of our picks going forward.
This week, we'll be looking at teams whose record on paper is not indicative of their actual skill level.
Using a tool called "Pythagorean plus/minus" at Bet Labs Sports, we can find teams whose record is better or worse than their point differential suggests it should be.
Many of you out there have probably heard of the Pythagorean Theorem, but you may not have heard of a Pythagorean record or Pythagorean plus/minus.
A Pythagorean record or expectation uses a team's point differential to show what its record should be rather than what it is. The Pythagorean plus/minus is simply the number you get when you subtract the team's actual winning percentage from its Pythagorean winning percentage. If it's positive, the team is underperforming, and if it's negative, the team is overperforming.
The stat was created for baseball by legendary statistician Bill James, and a terrific example of how a team's Pythagorean expectations can come back to bite it is available in the 2016 MLB season. That year, the Texas Rangers went 36-11 in one-run games, an MLB record. This allowed them to win 95 games with a run differential of just plus-8, 13 more wins than their Pythagorean record suggests. This past year, however, their luck ran dry, and they fell back to earth with just 78 wins.
This Bill Barnwell article from August touched on five teams that should have improved this year using Pythagorean expectations from the 2016 season, and they included the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers. Not too shabby.
There are also some more great examples in the NFL this year, though. For example, the Buffalo Bills and Chargers both have 7-6 records. However, the Chargers have outscored their opponents by 73 points while the Bills have been outscored by 50 points. Same record on paper, but the Chargers are clearly much better when looking at point differential.
I went ahead and looked at teams at this point of the season whose winning percentage is at least 10 percent worse than their Pythagorean winning percentage. Historically, betting on these teams has been quite profitable.
Week 15 Contrarian System
ATS WIN % UNITS WON ROI
Full season 548-505-32 (52%) +18.84 +1.7%
Weeks 15-17 76-49-7 (60.8%) +25.00 +18.9%
Why it works
Looking at Pythagorean records and point differentials is not exactly something that casual football fans do on a regular basis. In fact, I'm sure it's something that never crosses their mind.
Since we're so late in the season, bettors have already made their minds up about most teams. Square bettors don't all necessarily hate or dislike these underperforming teams, but it's safe to say that they're generally overlooked for the most part.
Obviously, a team like the Chargers isn't going to get as much respect with a 7-6 record as they would with an 8-5 or 9-4 record, which is what their Pythagorean record suggests. With bettors and oddsmakers setting their expectations lower for these teams than they should, we can pick up some extra value on the spread.
There are five teams remaining in the league with a winning percentage of at least 10 percent worse than their Pythagorean record suggests. Unfortunately, two of them, the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, are playing each other this week, so they'll have to be omitted.
Week 15 system matches
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs
The aforementioned Chargers and Chiefs will play a crucial game this weekend as far as the AFC West is concerned. And to make it even more entertaining, the game is on Saturday.
This game is close to a pick 'em around the betting market. On one hand, you have the underperforming Chargers, and on the other, you have the Chiefs, who have spiraled out of control since their undefeated start.
Bettors are having a tough time with this one so far, with spread bets close to 50/50. Will the Chiefs return to form with another divisional home win, or will the Chargers overtake the division lead with their fifth consecutive victory?
The pick: Chargers -1
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10)
The Jaguars were last season's biggest underperformer, and they're making Bill Barnwell and his readers look like geniuses with their nine wins this season. However, we're going to have to hold off on the Sacksonville hype for a bit; their opponent this week fits the Pythagorean mold.
The Texans have not had the best luck this season. They've lost DeShaun Watson, J.J. Watt and a slew of other defensive players for the season. At 4-9, they're looking at a top-10 draft pick in 2018, but their minus-23 point differential suggests that they should have a couple more wins. In fact, the 8-5 Titans have a differential of just two points better!
We'll have to be brave and bet on T.J. Yates, but 10.5 points is not a bad deal for this team.
The pick: Texans +10.5
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another 4-9 team, the Bucs have dealt with some bad luck of their own. They've been forced to start Ryan Fitzpatrick a handful of times, and Jameis Winston has never appeared to be at 100 percent when he has played. Though their point differential of minus-48 isn't quite as extreme as Houston's, they should still be better than a 4-9 team.
With just 18 percent of the early spread bets, I can definitely see this line moving to the key number of seven before week's end. A seven-point home dog is never a bad bet in my book.
The pick: Buccaneers +6.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER
Just a few weeks left! Hopefully there will be no more blizzards that get in the way of our picks going forward.
This week, we'll be looking at teams whose record on paper is not indicative of their actual skill level.
Using a tool called "Pythagorean plus/minus" at Bet Labs Sports, we can find teams whose record is better or worse than their point differential suggests it should be.
Many of you out there have probably heard of the Pythagorean Theorem, but you may not have heard of a Pythagorean record or Pythagorean plus/minus.
A Pythagorean record or expectation uses a team's point differential to show what its record should be rather than what it is. The Pythagorean plus/minus is simply the number you get when you subtract the team's actual winning percentage from its Pythagorean winning percentage. If it's positive, the team is underperforming, and if it's negative, the team is overperforming.
The stat was created for baseball by legendary statistician Bill James, and a terrific example of how a team's Pythagorean expectations can come back to bite it is available in the 2016 MLB season. That year, the Texas Rangers went 36-11 in one-run games, an MLB record. This allowed them to win 95 games with a run differential of just plus-8, 13 more wins than their Pythagorean record suggests. This past year, however, their luck ran dry, and they fell back to earth with just 78 wins.
This Bill Barnwell article from August touched on five teams that should have improved this year using Pythagorean expectations from the 2016 season, and they included the Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers. Not too shabby.
There are also some more great examples in the NFL this year, though. For example, the Buffalo Bills and Chargers both have 7-6 records. However, the Chargers have outscored their opponents by 73 points while the Bills have been outscored by 50 points. Same record on paper, but the Chargers are clearly much better when looking at point differential.
I went ahead and looked at teams at this point of the season whose winning percentage is at least 10 percent worse than their Pythagorean winning percentage. Historically, betting on these teams has been quite profitable.
Week 15 Contrarian System
ATS WIN % UNITS WON ROI
Full season 548-505-32 (52%) +18.84 +1.7%
Weeks 15-17 76-49-7 (60.8%) +25.00 +18.9%
Why it works
Looking at Pythagorean records and point differentials is not exactly something that casual football fans do on a regular basis. In fact, I'm sure it's something that never crosses their mind.
Since we're so late in the season, bettors have already made their minds up about most teams. Square bettors don't all necessarily hate or dislike these underperforming teams, but it's safe to say that they're generally overlooked for the most part.
Obviously, a team like the Chargers isn't going to get as much respect with a 7-6 record as they would with an 8-5 or 9-4 record, which is what their Pythagorean record suggests. With bettors and oddsmakers setting their expectations lower for these teams than they should, we can pick up some extra value on the spread.
There are five teams remaining in the league with a winning percentage of at least 10 percent worse than their Pythagorean record suggests. Unfortunately, two of them, the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns, are playing each other this week, so they'll have to be omitted.
Week 15 system matches
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs
The aforementioned Chargers and Chiefs will play a crucial game this weekend as far as the AFC West is concerned. And to make it even more entertaining, the game is on Saturday.
This game is close to a pick 'em around the betting market. On one hand, you have the underperforming Chargers, and on the other, you have the Chiefs, who have spiraled out of control since their undefeated start.
Bettors are having a tough time with this one so far, with spread bets close to 50/50. Will the Chiefs return to form with another divisional home win, or will the Chargers overtake the division lead with their fifth consecutive victory?
The pick: Chargers -1
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10)
The Jaguars were last season's biggest underperformer, and they're making Bill Barnwell and his readers look like geniuses with their nine wins this season. However, we're going to have to hold off on the Sacksonville hype for a bit; their opponent this week fits the Pythagorean mold.
The Texans have not had the best luck this season. They've lost DeShaun Watson, J.J. Watt and a slew of other defensive players for the season. At 4-9, they're looking at a top-10 draft pick in 2018, but their minus-23 point differential suggests that they should have a couple more wins. In fact, the 8-5 Titans have a differential of just two points better!
We'll have to be brave and bet on T.J. Yates, but 10.5 points is not a bad deal for this team.
The pick: Texans +10.5
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another 4-9 team, the Bucs have dealt with some bad luck of their own. They've been forced to start Ryan Fitzpatrick a handful of times, and Jameis Winston has never appeared to be at 100 percent when he has played. Though their point differential of minus-48 isn't quite as extreme as Houston's, they should still be better than a 4-9 team.
With just 18 percent of the early spread bets, I can definitely see this line moving to the key number of seven before week's end. A seven-point home dog is never a bad bet in my book.
The pick: Buccaneers +6.5
Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
