How to bet Denver-Indianapolis
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 40.5
PickCenter: 64 percent on Denver
Phil Steele
I made a handful of points why Denver should win last week's game against the New York Jets, but concluded that I just couldn't play the Broncos until their eight-game ATS losing streak was snapped. Well, Denver snapped that streak last week with a 23-0 shutout win. Denver is a nine-loss team, but it is actually plus-32 yards per game with a top-five defense. Quarterback Trevor Siemian is 4-6 as a starter this year and hit 19-of-30 for 200 yards versus the Jets. However, the Broncos are 0-6 on the road this year, losing by an average of 31-14.
Indianapolis lost in a blizzard last week, but returns to its comfy dome. The Colts are minus-85 yards per game on the season, but they could have easily beaten both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans, which would have made them 5-8. The numbers say Denver, and home field says Indianapolis. I will call for the Colts to win by three points, as I am surprised they are the 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis
Warren Sharp
The Broncos face yet another bad pass defense, this time the Colts' 30th-ranked unit. They have faced the No. 26, No. 27 and No. 32 pass defenses in consecutive weeks, and the assortment of Denver quarterbacks disappointed immensely in all three contests. Against the 27th-ranked Jets pass defense last week, Siemian was successful on just 39 percent of his passes and barely totaled 200 passing yards.
Meanwhile, after playing in the cold, wind and snow last week, the Colts will surely enjoy playing in their own dome. They have been highly competitive in every single game this season, save for against the Los Angeles Rams (lost by 33), the Seattle Seahawks (lost by 28) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (lost by 27 and 20). Every other game has been decided by one score, one way or another. The Broncos aren't the caliber of any of those three teams. The Colts will have to lean on quarterback Jacoby Brissett's arm to attack the weakness of the Broncos' defense.
I believe Indianapolis makes for an intriguing teaser leg, even though the Broncos are the more talented team. It's a mystery how they haven't been able to get more out of their roster.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis
Mike Clay
Prediction: Indianapolis 20, Denver 19
ATS pick: Indianapolis and the under
John Parolin's prop bets
Five combined sacks in game (O/U -110)
Neither of these quarterbacks should feel particularly secure in the pocket. Indy quarterbacks have been sacked a league-high 52 times this season, eight more than any other team in the league. Don't expect much sympathy from Siemian, as Broncos quarterbacks have been sacked 41 times, tied for fourth most. Without factoring in the quality of any pass rush, that's 93 combined sacks in 13 games, rounding out to 7.2 per game.
Neither pass rush has produced much by normal metrics. The Colts' pass rush has outright struggled, producing 20 sacks in 13 games (second fewest), while Denver's defense has produced 30 sacks (tied for 19th). The advanced metrics don't help Indianapolis, either, as the Colts' pass-rushers aren't even getting close. They have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 24 percent of passing plays, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. However, Denver gets a boost here. The Broncos have pressured opponents on the 11th-highest percentage of pass plays this season. Anything the Colts' pass rush gives will be a bonus, but Brissett's sacks haven't been flukes. He has been pressured on 37 percent of his passing plays this season, the highest of any quarterback with at least eight games played. Linebacker Von Miller and the rest of the Denver pass rush could hit six on their own. After all, Brissett has been sacked six times twice already this season.
Play: Over
67.5 receiving yards by Demaryius Thomas (O/U -110)
It hasn't been a season to remember for Siemian and, by extension, the Broncos' passing game. Denver has cycled through Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch and now back to Siemian. The inconsistency has hurt Thomas' production. He has had over 60 yards in eight games this season, but has also been under 30 in four of his past seven with Siemian under center. Despite the inconsistent production, Thomas' involvement in the offense hasn't waned. He has had at least eight targets in seven straight games and in 11 of his 13 contests this year. That sort of volume will come in handy against a bad Colts secondary. Indianapolis is ranked in the bottom five in pass yards per game and yards per attempt allowed to wide receivers this season. Over his past seven games, Thomas is averaging 9.7 targets per game. At the Colts' 8.57 yards per attempt average, Thomas projects over 83 yards per game. Even using Thomas' more conservative 7.09 yards per target average from Siemian (which doesn't factor in Indy at all) gets you over the 67.5 number. The Siemian-to-Thomas connection is primed to be on track on Thursday.
Play: Over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Thursday night's game between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bet.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 40.5
PickCenter: 64 percent on Denver
Phil Steele
I made a handful of points why Denver should win last week's game against the New York Jets, but concluded that I just couldn't play the Broncos until their eight-game ATS losing streak was snapped. Well, Denver snapped that streak last week with a 23-0 shutout win. Denver is a nine-loss team, but it is actually plus-32 yards per game with a top-five defense. Quarterback Trevor Siemian is 4-6 as a starter this year and hit 19-of-30 for 200 yards versus the Jets. However, the Broncos are 0-6 on the road this year, losing by an average of 31-14.
Indianapolis lost in a blizzard last week, but returns to its comfy dome. The Colts are minus-85 yards per game on the season, but they could have easily beaten both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans, which would have made them 5-8. The numbers say Denver, and home field says Indianapolis. I will call for the Colts to win by three points, as I am surprised they are the 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis
Warren Sharp
The Broncos face yet another bad pass defense, this time the Colts' 30th-ranked unit. They have faced the No. 26, No. 27 and No. 32 pass defenses in consecutive weeks, and the assortment of Denver quarterbacks disappointed immensely in all three contests. Against the 27th-ranked Jets pass defense last week, Siemian was successful on just 39 percent of his passes and barely totaled 200 passing yards.
Meanwhile, after playing in the cold, wind and snow last week, the Colts will surely enjoy playing in their own dome. They have been highly competitive in every single game this season, save for against the Los Angeles Rams (lost by 33), the Seattle Seahawks (lost by 28) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (lost by 27 and 20). Every other game has been decided by one score, one way or another. The Broncos aren't the caliber of any of those three teams. The Colts will have to lean on quarterback Jacoby Brissett's arm to attack the weakness of the Broncos' defense.
I believe Indianapolis makes for an intriguing teaser leg, even though the Broncos are the more talented team. It's a mystery how they haven't been able to get more out of their roster.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis
Mike Clay
Prediction: Indianapolis 20, Denver 19
ATS pick: Indianapolis and the under
John Parolin's prop bets
Five combined sacks in game (O/U -110)
Neither of these quarterbacks should feel particularly secure in the pocket. Indy quarterbacks have been sacked a league-high 52 times this season, eight more than any other team in the league. Don't expect much sympathy from Siemian, as Broncos quarterbacks have been sacked 41 times, tied for fourth most. Without factoring in the quality of any pass rush, that's 93 combined sacks in 13 games, rounding out to 7.2 per game.
Neither pass rush has produced much by normal metrics. The Colts' pass rush has outright struggled, producing 20 sacks in 13 games (second fewest), while Denver's defense has produced 30 sacks (tied for 19th). The advanced metrics don't help Indianapolis, either, as the Colts' pass-rushers aren't even getting close. They have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 24 percent of passing plays, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. However, Denver gets a boost here. The Broncos have pressured opponents on the 11th-highest percentage of pass plays this season. Anything the Colts' pass rush gives will be a bonus, but Brissett's sacks haven't been flukes. He has been pressured on 37 percent of his passing plays this season, the highest of any quarterback with at least eight games played. Linebacker Von Miller and the rest of the Denver pass rush could hit six on their own. After all, Brissett has been sacked six times twice already this season.
Play: Over
67.5 receiving yards by Demaryius Thomas (O/U -110)
It hasn't been a season to remember for Siemian and, by extension, the Broncos' passing game. Denver has cycled through Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch and now back to Siemian. The inconsistency has hurt Thomas' production. He has had over 60 yards in eight games this season, but has also been under 30 in four of his past seven with Siemian under center. Despite the inconsistent production, Thomas' involvement in the offense hasn't waned. He has had at least eight targets in seven straight games and in 11 of his 13 contests this year. That sort of volume will come in handy against a bad Colts secondary. Indianapolis is ranked in the bottom five in pass yards per game and yards per attempt allowed to wide receivers this season. Over his past seven games, Thomas is averaging 9.7 targets per game. At the Colts' 8.57 yards per attempt average, Thomas projects over 83 yards per game. Even using Thomas' more conservative 7.09 yards per target average from Siemian (which doesn't factor in Indy at all) gets you over the 67.5 number. The Siemian-to-Thomas connection is primed to be on track on Thursday.
Play: Over
