Best bets for every CFB bowl game
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's bowl season. ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis and their best bets for every single bowl game to be played from Dec. 16 through New Year's Day.
This file will be continuously updated throughout bowl season with fresh information, providing you with a thorough one-stop destination for all of your bowl game betting advice.
Note: The College Football Playoff semifinals and national championship will be separately addressed by ESPN Chalk. All game times listed are Eastern. Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday, Dec. 13.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Troy Trojans (-6.5, 62) vs. North Texas Mean Green
Dec. 16, 1 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
PickCenter: 78 percent pick North Texas
Steele: Troy tied for the Sun Belt title, while North Texas lost to Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game. North Texas' four losses came by an average of 24.3 points per game, and five of its nine wins came by seven points or less (four were by three or less). Troy went 10-2 straight up but just 5-6 ATS. Trojans QB Brandon Silvers had more than 20 touchdown passes in both 2015 and 2016 but has only a 13-6 ratio this year. I give a slight edge at quarterback to North Texas' Mason Fine, who improved in his second year as a starter, completing 64 percent with a 28-13 ratio.
The Mean Green have a slight edge at receiver and on special teams (I rate them No. 7 in the country) and have faced the tougher schedule (No. 94 versus No. 117). With North Texas' top running back (Jeffery Wilson) out, I give Troy the edge in the running game, led by the school's all-time rushing leader, Jordan Chunn. Troy's biggest edge is at defensive line, and its deep unit has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and has recorded 36 sacks.
I like Troy to win the game, as the Trojans have a significant edge on defense, and I will use them in my bowl confidence contest. With the North Texas offense averaging 66 yards per game more than its opponent allows on average, and the Trojans' defense allowing foes 57 yards per game more than they come in averaging, I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Harris: We love the year-round emphasis North Texas coach Seth Littrell places on winning, rather than just attending, a bowl game. It would be better if Wilson were available (he's very doubtful), but redshirt frosh Nick Smith has been an adequate fill-in, and this offense still has the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year (quarterback Mason Fine) throwing to the league's Newcomer of the Year (wideout Jalen Guyton). With 10 wins, a signature victory at LSU and a conference championship all in the bank, Troy's 2017 success is a fait accompli, while the Mean Green are still hungry for more.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: Troy 31, North Texas 30
Fallica: Troy is the known side here after winning at LSU earlier this year. North Texas struggled to slow Florida Atlantic in the C-USA championship game, but the Mean Green won't face as prolific an offense here in Troy, which was held under 300 yards despite the win at Arkansas State to end the regular season. The Trojans' defense took a hit with the injury to top cornerback Blace Brown, so if Mason Fine doesn't turn it over and Nic Smith can continue producing for injured running back Jeffrey Wilson, I like North Texas to pull off the upset and get its 10th win of the season.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: North Texas 34, Troy 31
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-6, 51.5) vs. Georgia State Panthers
Dec. 16, 2:30 p.m., CBSSN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
PickCenter: 73 percent pick Georgia State
Steele: Western Kentucky defeated teams that were a combined 18-53, while Georgia State vanquished foes that were 16-56. Mike Sanford Jr. took over a Hilltoppers team that had averaged 529 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry while scoring 46 PPG last year. Western Kentucky's offense took a big drop to just 400 yards per game of total offense (66 rushing yards per game) and just 26 PPG despite quarterback Mike White returning. White threw for 4,352 yards in 2016 with a 37-7 ratio and dropped to 3,826 yards with a 24-7 ratio this year.
The Hilltoppers allowed 22 sacks last year but yielded 42 this season. The good news is that Georgia State does not have a great pass rush, entering with just 20 total sacks. Georgia State averages only 3.2 yards per carry on offense, and quarterback Conner Manning, a Utah transfer, has just a 13-7 ratio despite facing Sun Belt foes. The Panthers' best offensive player is wide receiver Penny Hart, but he is questionable.
Western Kentucky has the edge on offense, defense and special teams, and needs a win to avoid a losing season. Georgia State is 6-5 and just happy to be in a bowl after a 3-9 record last year. The Hilltoppers were plus-23 yards per game against the five bowl teams they faced, while Georgia State was minus-165 yards per game against the three bowl teams it faced.
ATS pick: Western Kentucky
Las Vegas Bowl
No. 25 Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon Ducks (-7.5, 60)
Dec. 16, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas
PickCenter: 55 percent pick Boise State
Fallica: Bowls are often decided by who is motivated to play, and I think the Ducks will be motivated to play after Mario Cristobal was named head coach, replacing Willie Taggart. Quarterback Justin Herbert missed five games this year with an injury, but he's back, and the Ducks are a legit top-20 team with him in the lineup. With Herbert, they went 6-1 and averaged 50 PPG. I like the Ducks to win by double digits.
ATS pick: Oregon
Score: Oregon 38, Boise State 24
Steele: Oregon coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State, but Cristobal was already on staff. I thought Cristobal did a great job at Florida International, taking over a winless team and guiding it to a pair of winning seasons in his six years. He is 1-1 in bowls. Boise has my No. 11-rated special-teams unit, while Oregon is just No. 90; all the other edges belong to the Ducks. They faced the tougher schedule and outgained foes by 95 yards per game, while Boise was only plus-64 yards per game. While Boise has the edge statistically on defense, the Ducks took on much more potent offenses. I give Oregon a small edge on the defensive line with edges at linebacker and the secondary.
The biggest wild card in this game is quarterback Justin Herbert, who started the first five games but was injured and missed five before starting the last two. Without Herbert, Oregon averaged just 15 PPG, but in his seven games they averaged an amazing 52.1. I like Oregon to win the game, but the Ducks are laying over a touchdown, so I will go with the over as the top play in this one.
Pick: Over 60 total points
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Colorado State Rams (-5.5, 58.5)
Dec. 16, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
PickCenter: 61 percent pick Colorado State
Steele: This game features two teams that started out fast and had solid hopes of winning their conferences but combined to finish 3-7 over the last five games of the season. Colorado State has the clear offensive edge with Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews at running back and Biletnikoff finalist Michael Gallup at wide receiver. The offensive line opened up holes for 5.2 yards per carry, and Marshall averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Marshall has the clear edge on defense, as it allowed just 3.5 yards per carry, while the Rams' defense yielded 5.0 yards per carry. Marshall also ranks No. 58 in my pass defense rankings (Colorado State is No. 90).
Colorado State is closer to home, used to the altitude and played in this stadium this year. The final three factors all favor the Herd. Marshall faced the tougher schedule and is No. 16 in my special-teams ratings, while Colorado State is No. 55. Doc Holiday is a perfect 4-0 in bowl games, and Mike Bobo is 0-2. I will take the points in a possible upset.
ATS pick: Marshall
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-4, 62.5)
Dec. 16, 8 p.m., ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
PickCenter: 68 percent pick Arkansas State
Steele: Arkansas State might have been the best team in the Sun Belt, but it did not share the title. In their last game, the Red Wolves had a 313-yard edge but lost to Troy. On the season, they outgained SBC foes by 231 yards per game. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Justice Hansen had a 34-15 ratio, and diminutive Warren Wand is the top rusher with 667 yards. Middle Tennessee came into the season in great shape with its pass game, but quarterback Brent Stockstill was injured after two games and missed six, and top wide receiver Richie James was lost for the year after eight games.
With Stockstill in the lineup, Middle Tennessee averaged 30 PPG, but without him it managed just 19.5. Arkansas State has a legitimate defensive line led by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Alabama transfer Dee Liner. I like Arkansas State to win the game, but I will side with the over now that Stockstill is healthier.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Akron Zips vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (-22.5, 61.5)
Dec. 19, 7 p.m., ESPN
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
PickCenter: 67 percent pick FAU
Steele: This is the largest point spread in a bowl game in more than 20 years, and it is deserved. Florida Atlantic won 10 games, and seven were by 24 points or more. Florida Atlantic outgained conference foes by 127 yards per game, and Akron, despite going 6-2 against the weak MAC East, was actually outgained by 103 yards per game.
Akron quarterback Thomas Woodson was suspended a couple of games and had just 35 yards passing his last game but completed 57 percent of his passes on the year. Kato Nelson completed just 49 percent. Florida Atlantic running back Devin Singletary will be the best player on the field, and my computer calls for the Owls to rush for 301 yards and pass for 226. Florida Atlantic's biggest edge is on special teams, where I have them rated at No. 13 versus Akron at No. 129. Akron does have the edge of being a huge bowl underdog and should be highly motivated with no one giving it a chance to win. I have Florida Atlantic at the top of my bowl confidence contest to win this game, but I like the Zips to keep this within the huge spread.
ATS pick: Akron
DXL Frisco Bowl
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs (-5, 70)
Dec. 20, 8 p.m., ESPN
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
PickCenter: 61 percent pick SMU
Steele: Chad Morris did a great job getting SMU to a bowl for the first time since 2012, but after getting that magical sixth win, the Mustangs lost their next three against some of the AAC elite. They edged Tulane in the finale but played at just a 79.75 average game grade the last four games. Louisiana Tech needed to win its last two to get to six wins but played at only an average game grade of 80.05 the last four games. SMU was minus-19 yards per game versus the rugged AAC, while Louisiana Tech was plus-16 yards per game against C-USA foes.
Morris has left for Arkansas, so SMU will be guided by running backs coach Jeff Traylor. Louisiana Tech's Skip Holtz is 3-0 in bowls with the Bulldogs. SMU has the edge at all four areas on offense. Quarterback Ben Hicks has a super 32-9 ratio, running back Xavier Jones topped 1,000 yards and wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn both topped 1,000 yards receiving. Louisiana Tech has the edge on defense in all three areas, as it allows 387 yards per game, while SMU yields 487 yards per game. The special teams are even.
SMU will have the crowd edge being just 24 miles from home and was the first choice of the Frisco Bowl all season. The Mustangs did win every game they were favored in, and lost every game in which they were an underdog. They were 4-3 ATS as a favorite. I like SMU to win close, so it is tough to pick a side ATS. My computer is calling for 76 points, so I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 70 total points
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
Temple Owls (-7.5, 56) vs. Florida Intl Golden Panthers
Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida
PickCenter: 56 percent pick FIU
Steele: The Owls looked like they were going to miss the postseason in their first year under new head coach Geoff Collins. Temple won just three of its first eight games, but quarterback Frank Nutile started the last five, and the Owls averaged 31.8 PPG in Nutile's starts. Butch Davis did a great job in his first year, as Florida International doubled its win total and pulled off five outright upsets.
Panthers veteran quarterback Alex McGough opened slow with a 5-6 ratio the first six games, but he had a 12-2 ratio in his last six. Temple has the edge at wide receiver, while FIU has the slight edge at running back, with the top four combining for 1,774 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry. Temple has the edge on defense in all three areas, but Florida International doesn't have to leave the state and will have the crowd edge as well as the special-teams advantage. Despite getting over a touchdown, Florida International could pull the upset.
ATS pick: Florida International
Fallica: Butch Davis did a great job at FIU this season, getting the Golden Panthers to a bowl game with a string of upsets despite a lot of injuries. Still, the Temple defense is decent, and the Owls have improved throughout the season. Remember, this group of juniors and seniors has gotten to a bowl game each of the last two years, but lost as a favorite both times. I expect the Owls to finish the job this time around.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: Temple 42, Florida Intl 24
Bahamas Bowl
UAB Blazers vs. Ohio Bobcats (-7.5, 57.5)
Dec. 22, 12:30 p.m., ESPN
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
PickCenter: 63 percent pick UAB
Steele: UAB's Bill Clark is up for most national coach of the year awards. Many suggested that after taking two years off from football, the program should return at the FCS level, as it would be noncompetitive. The Blazers instead won eight games taking on my No. 129 toughest schedule. UAB quarterback A.J. Erdely completed 62 percent of his passes with a 16-4 ratio.
Ohio turned the offense over to Canadian Nathan Rourke in Week 2, and he threw for 2,031 yards, completing 54 percent with a 15-7 ratio, and was the No. 2 rusher with 877 yards (21 rushing touchdowns). Ohio wide receiver Papi White will be the most explosive player on the field, but he had only 520 receiving yards. Ohio has the edge on both the offensive and defensive lines, and at linebacker. UAB has the edge in one area, the secondary, where it was No. 38 in my pass defense numbers, led by first-team C-USA Darious Williams.
Frank Solich has the bowl game experience edge but is just 4-9 in bowls. Ohio's biggest edge is special teams, at No. 9 in my rankings, while UAB is just No. 124. UAB pulled five outright upsets and is getting over a touchdown. I like UAB to stay within the number.
ATS pick: UAB
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Wyoming Cowboys (PK, 45)
Dec. 22, 4 p.m., ESPN
Lyle Smith Field at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
PickCenter: 55 percent pick Central Michigan
Steele: The big question for this bowl is whether NFL prospect Josh Allen will be healthy enough to play for Wyoming. Allen didn't have the type of year many expected, throwing for just 1,658 yards and a 13-6 ratio. Michigan transfer Shane Morris is Central's quarterback and has better numbers, throwing for 2,910 yards, but with just 55 percent completions, and a 26-13 ratio. Central has the edge on offense, averaging 105 yards and eight points per game more. Central running back Jonathan Ward has 988 rushing yards and averages 5.9 yards per carry.
Wyoming has a slight edge on defense, allowing 46 yards per game less but also nine points per game less. Wyoming's biggest edges are with the No. 54 special-teams unit versus Central's No. 123, and the site. Wyoming is used to altitude and played at this stadium this year. This game looks like a toss-up, and that is where the line is.
Two factors will have me leaning with the MAC squad. Over the last four games, Central Michigan played to an average game grade of 82.2 and Wyoming to just a 74.7. Wyoming beat two bowl teams but trailed in the fourth quarter in those wins. Central beat a Big 12 team on the road, while also beating two bowl teams in Ohio and Northern Illinois. Central was minus-6 yards per game vs. the five bowl teams it faced, while Wyoming was minus-109 yards per game against its six bowl foes.
ATS pick: Central Michigan
Birmingham Bowl
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. South Florida Bulls (-2.5, 67.5)
Dec. 23, noon, ESPN
Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
PickCenter: 80 percent pick USF
Steele: South Florida faced a very easy schedule (No. 119 by my numbers). I had predicted the Bulls to go unbeaten, and they were favored in every regular-season game. They had Houston beaten but allowed a late fourth-and-long conversion and then a touchdown with 11 seconds left to lose. They gave unbeaten UCF everything they wanted in the AAC title game but lost by seven. After a slow start, South Florida dominated four straight foes but lost its last four regular-season games against the number. Texas Tech faced my No. 14 toughest schedule, so it comes up short statistically at plus-34 yards per game versus the Bulls' plus-166.
South Florida has a nice matchup edge with my No. 18-rated pass defense against the pass-heavy Texas Tech offense. Nic Shimonek is your typical first-year Texas Tech quarterback, as he has thrown for 3,547 yards, completing 68 percent, with a 30-8 ratio. South Florida quarterback Quinton Flowers is dangerous with 2,600 passing yards and another 972 rushing yards. Texas Tech has a slight edge on offense and South Florida a slight edge on defense. Texas Tech beat Arizona State, Houston and Texas, and had close losses to Oklahoma State, West Virginia (blew a 35-17 lead) and Kansas State (overtime). I will go with the more battle-tested team to pull off the upset here.
ATS pick: Texas Tech
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs (-7, 49.5) vs. Army Black Knights
Dec. 23, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
PickCenter: 68 percent pick Army
Steele: The Black Knights have a nice edge of having played just two weeks ago, while San Diego State hasn't played in 28 days. Army got its first Commander-in-Chief's trophy since 1996 and now is attempting to get a rare 10-win season. Ahmad Bradshaw is completing just 33 percent of his passes but throws less than five times a game and is the leading rusher with 1,566 yards and a nifty 7.5 yards per carry. San Diego State's offensive line has allowed 30 sacks and is No. 60 in my special-teams rankings, while Army is No. 26. Rashaad Penny has rushed for 1,824 yards and 7.2 yards per carry for the Aztecs and should have success against an Army defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
Army figures to have the crowd edge, with a good portion of its roster originating from the state of Texas. San Diego State is the more talented team, but its biggest edge is that Rocky Long's defenses always do well versus the option. He is 11-1 straight up and 8-4 ATS versus option teams. They have the bowl practices to help prep for the option and in the 2014 bowl held Navy to a season-low 271 yards, which was 161 yards per game below the Middies' season average.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Dollar General Bowl
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Toledo Rockets (-8, 63)
Dec. 23, 7 p.m., ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
PickCenter: 51 percent pick Toledo
Steele: There have been a couple of times recently when I felt that Toledo had the best team in the MAC but did not win the title; in fact, the Rockets had not appeared in the MAC title game since 2004. The drought is over, and they won the MAC title this year going away against Akron. Appalachian State had a veteran squad and was the preseason favorite to win the SBC again, but it had a disappointing year despite sharing the league title. The Mountaineers were favored in every game except their opener with Georgia but went only 8-4.
These teams are very evenly matched, as I rate their running backs, offensive lines, linebackers and defensive backs all even. Both teams have veteran quarterbacks, with Toledo's Logan Woodside entering with a 28-5 ratio and Appalachian State's Taylor Lamb with a 27-6 ratio. The biggest edge at any position is on special teams, with Toledo at No. 8 and Appalachian State at No. 66. Toledo is playing with revenge in mind after losing a tight game by three in last year's Camellia Bowl. I expect a very similar game, but this time Appalachian State is getting over a touchdown after being a slight favorite last year.
ATS pick: Appalachian State
Hawai'i Bowl
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Houston Cougars (-2.5, 50)
Dec. 24, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Hawaiian Tel Federal Credit Union Field at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu
PickCenter: 51 percent pick Fresno State
Steele: Head coach Jeff Tedford did an incredible job, as Fresno State won just one game last year and played in the Mountain West title game this year. Fresno State had four losses, with two coming at Alabama and Washington, where the Bulldogs covered both.
Fresno State defensive coordinator Orlando Steinhauer came over from the Canadian Football League but had no problems adjusting to the college game, as his defense held foes to 53 yards per game below their season average. Houston began the year with Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen at quarterback, but he was replaced by Kyle Postma, and then converted wide receiver D'Eriq King, who started the final three games. Despite using three quarterbacks, the Cougars completed 70 percent of their passes.
The top NFL prospect in this game is Nagurski Award-winning defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who is a true sophomore. The defenses are even. Houston has the edge on offense, while Fresno has the edge on special teams and played at this site six weeks ago. The game is a toss-up, so I will focus on the total. My computer is calling for 35 total points scored, so I will side with the under.
Pick: Under 50 total points
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Utah Utes (-7, 56.5) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Dec. 26, 1:30 p.m., ESPN
Cotton Bowl, Dallas
PickCenter: 62 percent pick WVU
Steele: The big news in this game is that West Virginia QB Will Grier injured his finger and is doubtful. Grier threw for 3,490 yards, completing 64 percent with a 34-12 ratio. Chris Chugunov started versus Oklahoma, but has completed just 55 percent with a 2-0 ratio.
Utah switched to more of a passing offense this year and the unit operated at its best with Tyler Huntley under center. West Virginia has the edge on the offensive line, allowing just 17 sacks, while the Utes gave up 32. Utah has a large edge on defense, allowing 99 yards per game less, while holding foes to 63 yards per game below their season average. West Virginia allowed foes 35 yards per game more than their average. The biggest edge is on special teams as Utah is No. 15 in my rankings and West Virginia is 120th.
The Utah defensive line is one of the best in the country led by Lowell Lotulelei and Filipo Mokofisi. Dana Holgorsen is 2-3 in bowl games, while Kyle Whittingham is one the best at 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS. With a coach who knows how to win along with the defensive and special teams edges, I will side with the Utes.
ATS pick: Utah
Quick Lane Bowl
Duke Blue Devils (-4.5, 47.5) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Dec. 26, 5:15 p.m., ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit
PickCenter: 70 percent pick Northern Illinois
Steele: Duke has won a grand total of one bowl game since 1961. Northern Illinois coach Rod Carey is 0-3 in bowls both straight up and ATS (losing by 7, 29 and 48 points), and the MAC lost all six bowl games last year.
The Duke offense was dynamic early with Daniel Jones throwing for 226 yards per game and having a 5-2 ratio the first four games, but he struggled the rest of the year. During their six-game losing streak, Jones threw for just 168 yards per game, completing just 49 percent of his passes, with a 3-6 ratio.
Northern Illinois switched quarterbacks midyear, and Marcus Childers picked up the offense with a 15-5 ratio, and is the team's No. 2 rusher. Northern Illinois has the edge on the defensive line, but Duke has edges at linebacker and defensive back. Northern Illinois has the edge of playing in the MAC title game six of the past eight years at this site. Duke faced my No. 55 toughest schedule, while Northern Illinois took on my No. 106-toughest slate.
I think this will be a lower scoring game with the two solid defenses, so the under would be worth a look. I will go with Duke to win the game in my bowl confidence contest, but these teams are very close talent-wise, so I will take the points with the Huskies.
ATS pick: Northern Illinois
Fallica: Duke had to pull a couple of upsets just to get to a bowl game, so the Blue Devils are clearly happy to be here. MAC teams have struggled lately in bowls, but people might not realize the NIU defense is in the top 20 nationally in expected points added. Defensive lineman Sutton Smith led the nation with 14 sacks, and the defense single-handedly won the game at Nebraska earlier this season. I also like the added dimension that freshman quarterback Marcus Childers gives NIU since taking over. The Huskies will be in this one all the way and just might even pull off the outright upset.
ATS pick: Northern Illinois
Score: Northern Illinois 24, Duke 23
Cactus Bowl
Kansas State Wildcats (-2.5, 63) vs. UCLA Bruins
Dec. 26, 9 p.m., ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix
PickCenter: 75 percent pick Kansas State
Steele: Bill Snyder is one of the greatest head coaches in the country, so it is a surprise to me that he is just 8-10 in bowl games straight up. UCLA is led by interim head coach Jedd Fisch, who called all the plays this year as the offensive coordinator. Fisch does have Josh Rosen as his quarterback, and the Bruins averaged 495 yards per game, despite struggling to establish the run most of the year. The UCLA defense suffered a bunch of injuries to the front seven and allowed a ridiculous 283 yards rushing per game and 5.7 yards per carry.
Kansas State was down to its third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson over the final three games, but he acquitted himself well. The Wildcats match up well as they like to run the ball and go versus that porous rush defense. I rank the Kansas State defense No. 39, and UCLA's at No. 82. I was already leaning with Kansas State with the defense and coaching edge, but then tossed in the special teams. I rate Kansas State with the No. 1 special teams unit, while UCLA is way down at No. 116. I am surprised that Kansas State is favored by less than field goal.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Harris: We fully expect UCLA to outperform Kansas State on a per-play basis, but Snyder knows that the game is about possessions, not plays. The Wildcats will take advantage of superior special teams and a miserable UCLA rushing defense to control the ball, the clock, the field position and the game. Rosen probably will throw for 400 yards, but moving the ball between the 20s isn't the same as finishing drives. UCLA won't get many chances, and a ball-hawking Kansas State secondary led by D.J. Reed and Duke Shelley will end enough Bruins drives with turnovers to make the difference.
Score: Kansas State 35, UCLA 28
ATS pick: Kansas State
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's bowl season. ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis and their best bets for every single bowl game to be played from Dec. 16 through New Year's Day.
This file will be continuously updated throughout bowl season with fresh information, providing you with a thorough one-stop destination for all of your bowl game betting advice.
Note: The College Football Playoff semifinals and national championship will be separately addressed by ESPN Chalk. All game times listed are Eastern. Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wednesday, Dec. 13.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Troy Trojans (-6.5, 62) vs. North Texas Mean Green
Dec. 16, 1 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
PickCenter: 78 percent pick North Texas
Steele: Troy tied for the Sun Belt title, while North Texas lost to Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game. North Texas' four losses came by an average of 24.3 points per game, and five of its nine wins came by seven points or less (four were by three or less). Troy went 10-2 straight up but just 5-6 ATS. Trojans QB Brandon Silvers had more than 20 touchdown passes in both 2015 and 2016 but has only a 13-6 ratio this year. I give a slight edge at quarterback to North Texas' Mason Fine, who improved in his second year as a starter, completing 64 percent with a 28-13 ratio.
The Mean Green have a slight edge at receiver and on special teams (I rate them No. 7 in the country) and have faced the tougher schedule (No. 94 versus No. 117). With North Texas' top running back (Jeffery Wilson) out, I give Troy the edge in the running game, led by the school's all-time rushing leader, Jordan Chunn. Troy's biggest edge is at defensive line, and its deep unit has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and has recorded 36 sacks.
I like Troy to win the game, as the Trojans have a significant edge on defense, and I will use them in my bowl confidence contest. With the North Texas offense averaging 66 yards per game more than its opponent allows on average, and the Trojans' defense allowing foes 57 yards per game more than they come in averaging, I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Harris: We love the year-round emphasis North Texas coach Seth Littrell places on winning, rather than just attending, a bowl game. It would be better if Wilson were available (he's very doubtful), but redshirt frosh Nick Smith has been an adequate fill-in, and this offense still has the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year (quarterback Mason Fine) throwing to the league's Newcomer of the Year (wideout Jalen Guyton). With 10 wins, a signature victory at LSU and a conference championship all in the bank, Troy's 2017 success is a fait accompli, while the Mean Green are still hungry for more.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: Troy 31, North Texas 30
Fallica: Troy is the known side here after winning at LSU earlier this year. North Texas struggled to slow Florida Atlantic in the C-USA championship game, but the Mean Green won't face as prolific an offense here in Troy, which was held under 300 yards despite the win at Arkansas State to end the regular season. The Trojans' defense took a hit with the injury to top cornerback Blace Brown, so if Mason Fine doesn't turn it over and Nic Smith can continue producing for injured running back Jeffrey Wilson, I like North Texas to pull off the upset and get its 10th win of the season.
ATS pick: North Texas
Score: North Texas 34, Troy 31
AutoNation Cure Bowl
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-6, 51.5) vs. Georgia State Panthers
Dec. 16, 2:30 p.m., CBSSN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
PickCenter: 73 percent pick Georgia State
Steele: Western Kentucky defeated teams that were a combined 18-53, while Georgia State vanquished foes that were 16-56. Mike Sanford Jr. took over a Hilltoppers team that had averaged 529 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry while scoring 46 PPG last year. Western Kentucky's offense took a big drop to just 400 yards per game of total offense (66 rushing yards per game) and just 26 PPG despite quarterback Mike White returning. White threw for 4,352 yards in 2016 with a 37-7 ratio and dropped to 3,826 yards with a 24-7 ratio this year.
The Hilltoppers allowed 22 sacks last year but yielded 42 this season. The good news is that Georgia State does not have a great pass rush, entering with just 20 total sacks. Georgia State averages only 3.2 yards per carry on offense, and quarterback Conner Manning, a Utah transfer, has just a 13-7 ratio despite facing Sun Belt foes. The Panthers' best offensive player is wide receiver Penny Hart, but he is questionable.
Western Kentucky has the edge on offense, defense and special teams, and needs a win to avoid a losing season. Georgia State is 6-5 and just happy to be in a bowl after a 3-9 record last year. The Hilltoppers were plus-23 yards per game against the five bowl teams they faced, while Georgia State was minus-165 yards per game against the three bowl teams it faced.
ATS pick: Western Kentucky
Las Vegas Bowl
No. 25 Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon Ducks (-7.5, 60)
Dec. 16, 3:30 p.m., ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas
PickCenter: 55 percent pick Boise State
Fallica: Bowls are often decided by who is motivated to play, and I think the Ducks will be motivated to play after Mario Cristobal was named head coach, replacing Willie Taggart. Quarterback Justin Herbert missed five games this year with an injury, but he's back, and the Ducks are a legit top-20 team with him in the lineup. With Herbert, they went 6-1 and averaged 50 PPG. I like the Ducks to win by double digits.
ATS pick: Oregon
Score: Oregon 38, Boise State 24
Steele: Oregon coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State, but Cristobal was already on staff. I thought Cristobal did a great job at Florida International, taking over a winless team and guiding it to a pair of winning seasons in his six years. He is 1-1 in bowls. Boise has my No. 11-rated special-teams unit, while Oregon is just No. 90; all the other edges belong to the Ducks. They faced the tougher schedule and outgained foes by 95 yards per game, while Boise was only plus-64 yards per game. While Boise has the edge statistically on defense, the Ducks took on much more potent offenses. I give Oregon a small edge on the defensive line with edges at linebacker and the secondary.
The biggest wild card in this game is quarterback Justin Herbert, who started the first five games but was injured and missed five before starting the last two. Without Herbert, Oregon averaged just 15 PPG, but in his seven games they averaged an amazing 52.1. I like Oregon to win the game, but the Ducks are laying over a touchdown, so I will go with the over as the top play in this one.
Pick: Over 60 total points
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Colorado State Rams (-5.5, 58.5)
Dec. 16, 4:30 p.m., ESPN
Branch Field at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
PickCenter: 61 percent pick Colorado State
Steele: This game features two teams that started out fast and had solid hopes of winning their conferences but combined to finish 3-7 over the last five games of the season. Colorado State has the clear offensive edge with Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews at running back and Biletnikoff finalist Michael Gallup at wide receiver. The offensive line opened up holes for 5.2 yards per carry, and Marshall averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Marshall has the clear edge on defense, as it allowed just 3.5 yards per carry, while the Rams' defense yielded 5.0 yards per carry. Marshall also ranks No. 58 in my pass defense rankings (Colorado State is No. 90).
Colorado State is closer to home, used to the altitude and played in this stadium this year. The final three factors all favor the Herd. Marshall faced the tougher schedule and is No. 16 in my special-teams ratings, while Colorado State is No. 55. Doc Holiday is a perfect 4-0 in bowl games, and Mike Bobo is 0-2. I will take the points in a possible upset.
ATS pick: Marshall
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-4, 62.5)
Dec. 16, 8 p.m., ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
PickCenter: 68 percent pick Arkansas State
Steele: Arkansas State might have been the best team in the Sun Belt, but it did not share the title. In their last game, the Red Wolves had a 313-yard edge but lost to Troy. On the season, they outgained SBC foes by 231 yards per game. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Justice Hansen had a 34-15 ratio, and diminutive Warren Wand is the top rusher with 667 yards. Middle Tennessee came into the season in great shape with its pass game, but quarterback Brent Stockstill was injured after two games and missed six, and top wide receiver Richie James was lost for the year after eight games.
With Stockstill in the lineup, Middle Tennessee averaged 30 PPG, but without him it managed just 19.5. Arkansas State has a legitimate defensive line led by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones and Alabama transfer Dee Liner. I like Arkansas State to win the game, but I will side with the over now that Stockstill is healthier.
Pick: Over 62 total points
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
Akron Zips vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (-22.5, 61.5)
Dec. 19, 7 p.m., ESPN
Howard Schnellenberger Field at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
PickCenter: 67 percent pick FAU
Steele: This is the largest point spread in a bowl game in more than 20 years, and it is deserved. Florida Atlantic won 10 games, and seven were by 24 points or more. Florida Atlantic outgained conference foes by 127 yards per game, and Akron, despite going 6-2 against the weak MAC East, was actually outgained by 103 yards per game.
Akron quarterback Thomas Woodson was suspended a couple of games and had just 35 yards passing his last game but completed 57 percent of his passes on the year. Kato Nelson completed just 49 percent. Florida Atlantic running back Devin Singletary will be the best player on the field, and my computer calls for the Owls to rush for 301 yards and pass for 226. Florida Atlantic's biggest edge is on special teams, where I have them rated at No. 13 versus Akron at No. 129. Akron does have the edge of being a huge bowl underdog and should be highly motivated with no one giving it a chance to win. I have Florida Atlantic at the top of my bowl confidence contest to win this game, but I like the Zips to keep this within the huge spread.
ATS pick: Akron
DXL Frisco Bowl
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs (-5, 70)
Dec. 20, 8 p.m., ESPN
Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
PickCenter: 61 percent pick SMU
Steele: Chad Morris did a great job getting SMU to a bowl for the first time since 2012, but after getting that magical sixth win, the Mustangs lost their next three against some of the AAC elite. They edged Tulane in the finale but played at just a 79.75 average game grade the last four games. Louisiana Tech needed to win its last two to get to six wins but played at only an average game grade of 80.05 the last four games. SMU was minus-19 yards per game versus the rugged AAC, while Louisiana Tech was plus-16 yards per game against C-USA foes.
Morris has left for Arkansas, so SMU will be guided by running backs coach Jeff Traylor. Louisiana Tech's Skip Holtz is 3-0 in bowls with the Bulldogs. SMU has the edge at all four areas on offense. Quarterback Ben Hicks has a super 32-9 ratio, running back Xavier Jones topped 1,000 yards and wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Trey Quinn both topped 1,000 yards receiving. Louisiana Tech has the edge on defense in all three areas, as it allows 387 yards per game, while SMU yields 487 yards per game. The special teams are even.
SMU will have the crowd edge being just 24 miles from home and was the first choice of the Frisco Bowl all season. The Mustangs did win every game they were favored in, and lost every game in which they were an underdog. They were 4-3 ATS as a favorite. I like SMU to win close, so it is tough to pick a side ATS. My computer is calling for 76 points, so I will lean with the over.
Pick: Over 70 total points
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
Temple Owls (-7.5, 56) vs. Florida Intl Golden Panthers
Dec. 21, 8 p.m., ESPN
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida
PickCenter: 56 percent pick FIU
Steele: The Owls looked like they were going to miss the postseason in their first year under new head coach Geoff Collins. Temple won just three of its first eight games, but quarterback Frank Nutile started the last five, and the Owls averaged 31.8 PPG in Nutile's starts. Butch Davis did a great job in his first year, as Florida International doubled its win total and pulled off five outright upsets.
Panthers veteran quarterback Alex McGough opened slow with a 5-6 ratio the first six games, but he had a 12-2 ratio in his last six. Temple has the edge at wide receiver, while FIU has the slight edge at running back, with the top four combining for 1,774 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry. Temple has the edge on defense in all three areas, but Florida International doesn't have to leave the state and will have the crowd edge as well as the special-teams advantage. Despite getting over a touchdown, Florida International could pull the upset.
ATS pick: Florida International
Fallica: Butch Davis did a great job at FIU this season, getting the Golden Panthers to a bowl game with a string of upsets despite a lot of injuries. Still, the Temple defense is decent, and the Owls have improved throughout the season. Remember, this group of juniors and seniors has gotten to a bowl game each of the last two years, but lost as a favorite both times. I expect the Owls to finish the job this time around.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: Temple 42, Florida Intl 24
Bahamas Bowl
UAB Blazers vs. Ohio Bobcats (-7.5, 57.5)
Dec. 22, 12:30 p.m., ESPN
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
PickCenter: 63 percent pick UAB
Steele: UAB's Bill Clark is up for most national coach of the year awards. Many suggested that after taking two years off from football, the program should return at the FCS level, as it would be noncompetitive. The Blazers instead won eight games taking on my No. 129 toughest schedule. UAB quarterback A.J. Erdely completed 62 percent of his passes with a 16-4 ratio.
Ohio turned the offense over to Canadian Nathan Rourke in Week 2, and he threw for 2,031 yards, completing 54 percent with a 15-7 ratio, and was the No. 2 rusher with 877 yards (21 rushing touchdowns). Ohio wide receiver Papi White will be the most explosive player on the field, but he had only 520 receiving yards. Ohio has the edge on both the offensive and defensive lines, and at linebacker. UAB has the edge in one area, the secondary, where it was No. 38 in my pass defense numbers, led by first-team C-USA Darious Williams.
Frank Solich has the bowl game experience edge but is just 4-9 in bowls. Ohio's biggest edge is special teams, at No. 9 in my rankings, while UAB is just No. 124. UAB pulled five outright upsets and is getting over a touchdown. I like UAB to stay within the number.
ATS pick: UAB
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Wyoming Cowboys (PK, 45)
Dec. 22, 4 p.m., ESPN
Lyle Smith Field at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
PickCenter: 55 percent pick Central Michigan
Steele: The big question for this bowl is whether NFL prospect Josh Allen will be healthy enough to play for Wyoming. Allen didn't have the type of year many expected, throwing for just 1,658 yards and a 13-6 ratio. Michigan transfer Shane Morris is Central's quarterback and has better numbers, throwing for 2,910 yards, but with just 55 percent completions, and a 26-13 ratio. Central has the edge on offense, averaging 105 yards and eight points per game more. Central running back Jonathan Ward has 988 rushing yards and averages 5.9 yards per carry.
Wyoming has a slight edge on defense, allowing 46 yards per game less but also nine points per game less. Wyoming's biggest edges are with the No. 54 special-teams unit versus Central's No. 123, and the site. Wyoming is used to altitude and played at this stadium this year. This game looks like a toss-up, and that is where the line is.
Two factors will have me leaning with the MAC squad. Over the last four games, Central Michigan played to an average game grade of 82.2 and Wyoming to just a 74.7. Wyoming beat two bowl teams but trailed in the fourth quarter in those wins. Central beat a Big 12 team on the road, while also beating two bowl teams in Ohio and Northern Illinois. Central was minus-6 yards per game vs. the five bowl teams it faced, while Wyoming was minus-109 yards per game against its six bowl foes.
ATS pick: Central Michigan
Birmingham Bowl
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. South Florida Bulls (-2.5, 67.5)
Dec. 23, noon, ESPN
Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
PickCenter: 80 percent pick USF
Steele: South Florida faced a very easy schedule (No. 119 by my numbers). I had predicted the Bulls to go unbeaten, and they were favored in every regular-season game. They had Houston beaten but allowed a late fourth-and-long conversion and then a touchdown with 11 seconds left to lose. They gave unbeaten UCF everything they wanted in the AAC title game but lost by seven. After a slow start, South Florida dominated four straight foes but lost its last four regular-season games against the number. Texas Tech faced my No. 14 toughest schedule, so it comes up short statistically at plus-34 yards per game versus the Bulls' plus-166.
South Florida has a nice matchup edge with my No. 18-rated pass defense against the pass-heavy Texas Tech offense. Nic Shimonek is your typical first-year Texas Tech quarterback, as he has thrown for 3,547 yards, completing 68 percent, with a 30-8 ratio. South Florida quarterback Quinton Flowers is dangerous with 2,600 passing yards and another 972 rushing yards. Texas Tech has a slight edge on offense and South Florida a slight edge on defense. Texas Tech beat Arizona State, Houston and Texas, and had close losses to Oklahoma State, West Virginia (blew a 35-17 lead) and Kansas State (overtime). I will go with the more battle-tested team to pull off the upset here.
ATS pick: Texas Tech
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
San Diego State Aztecs (-7, 49.5) vs. Army Black Knights
Dec. 23, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
PickCenter: 68 percent pick Army
Steele: The Black Knights have a nice edge of having played just two weeks ago, while San Diego State hasn't played in 28 days. Army got its first Commander-in-Chief's trophy since 1996 and now is attempting to get a rare 10-win season. Ahmad Bradshaw is completing just 33 percent of his passes but throws less than five times a game and is the leading rusher with 1,566 yards and a nifty 7.5 yards per carry. San Diego State's offensive line has allowed 30 sacks and is No. 60 in my special-teams rankings, while Army is No. 26. Rashaad Penny has rushed for 1,824 yards and 7.2 yards per carry for the Aztecs and should have success against an Army defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
Army figures to have the crowd edge, with a good portion of its roster originating from the state of Texas. San Diego State is the more talented team, but its biggest edge is that Rocky Long's defenses always do well versus the option. He is 11-1 straight up and 8-4 ATS versus option teams. They have the bowl practices to help prep for the option and in the 2014 bowl held Navy to a season-low 271 yards, which was 161 yards per game below the Middies' season average.
ATS pick: San Diego State
Dollar General Bowl
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Toledo Rockets (-8, 63)
Dec. 23, 7 p.m., ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
PickCenter: 51 percent pick Toledo
Steele: There have been a couple of times recently when I felt that Toledo had the best team in the MAC but did not win the title; in fact, the Rockets had not appeared in the MAC title game since 2004. The drought is over, and they won the MAC title this year going away against Akron. Appalachian State had a veteran squad and was the preseason favorite to win the SBC again, but it had a disappointing year despite sharing the league title. The Mountaineers were favored in every game except their opener with Georgia but went only 8-4.
These teams are very evenly matched, as I rate their running backs, offensive lines, linebackers and defensive backs all even. Both teams have veteran quarterbacks, with Toledo's Logan Woodside entering with a 28-5 ratio and Appalachian State's Taylor Lamb with a 27-6 ratio. The biggest edge at any position is on special teams, with Toledo at No. 8 and Appalachian State at No. 66. Toledo is playing with revenge in mind after losing a tight game by three in last year's Camellia Bowl. I expect a very similar game, but this time Appalachian State is getting over a touchdown after being a slight favorite last year.
ATS pick: Appalachian State
Hawai'i Bowl
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Houston Cougars (-2.5, 50)
Dec. 24, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Hawaiian Tel Federal Credit Union Field at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu
PickCenter: 51 percent pick Fresno State
Steele: Head coach Jeff Tedford did an incredible job, as Fresno State won just one game last year and played in the Mountain West title game this year. Fresno State had four losses, with two coming at Alabama and Washington, where the Bulldogs covered both.
Fresno State defensive coordinator Orlando Steinhauer came over from the Canadian Football League but had no problems adjusting to the college game, as his defense held foes to 53 yards per game below their season average. Houston began the year with Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen at quarterback, but he was replaced by Kyle Postma, and then converted wide receiver D'Eriq King, who started the final three games. Despite using three quarterbacks, the Cougars completed 70 percent of their passes.
The top NFL prospect in this game is Nagurski Award-winning defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who is a true sophomore. The defenses are even. Houston has the edge on offense, while Fresno has the edge on special teams and played at this site six weeks ago. The game is a toss-up, so I will focus on the total. My computer is calling for 35 total points scored, so I will side with the under.
Pick: Under 50 total points
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl
Utah Utes (-7, 56.5) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
Dec. 26, 1:30 p.m., ESPN
Cotton Bowl, Dallas
PickCenter: 62 percent pick WVU
Steele: The big news in this game is that West Virginia QB Will Grier injured his finger and is doubtful. Grier threw for 3,490 yards, completing 64 percent with a 34-12 ratio. Chris Chugunov started versus Oklahoma, but has completed just 55 percent with a 2-0 ratio.
Utah switched to more of a passing offense this year and the unit operated at its best with Tyler Huntley under center. West Virginia has the edge on the offensive line, allowing just 17 sacks, while the Utes gave up 32. Utah has a large edge on defense, allowing 99 yards per game less, while holding foes to 63 yards per game below their season average. West Virginia allowed foes 35 yards per game more than their average. The biggest edge is on special teams as Utah is No. 15 in my rankings and West Virginia is 120th.
The Utah defensive line is one of the best in the country led by Lowell Lotulelei and Filipo Mokofisi. Dana Holgorsen is 2-3 in bowl games, while Kyle Whittingham is one the best at 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS. With a coach who knows how to win along with the defensive and special teams edges, I will side with the Utes.
ATS pick: Utah
Quick Lane Bowl
Duke Blue Devils (-4.5, 47.5) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies
Dec. 26, 5:15 p.m., ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit
PickCenter: 70 percent pick Northern Illinois
Steele: Duke has won a grand total of one bowl game since 1961. Northern Illinois coach Rod Carey is 0-3 in bowls both straight up and ATS (losing by 7, 29 and 48 points), and the MAC lost all six bowl games last year.
The Duke offense was dynamic early with Daniel Jones throwing for 226 yards per game and having a 5-2 ratio the first four games, but he struggled the rest of the year. During their six-game losing streak, Jones threw for just 168 yards per game, completing just 49 percent of his passes, with a 3-6 ratio.
Northern Illinois switched quarterbacks midyear, and Marcus Childers picked up the offense with a 15-5 ratio, and is the team's No. 2 rusher. Northern Illinois has the edge on the defensive line, but Duke has edges at linebacker and defensive back. Northern Illinois has the edge of playing in the MAC title game six of the past eight years at this site. Duke faced my No. 55 toughest schedule, while Northern Illinois took on my No. 106-toughest slate.
I think this will be a lower scoring game with the two solid defenses, so the under would be worth a look. I will go with Duke to win the game in my bowl confidence contest, but these teams are very close talent-wise, so I will take the points with the Huskies.
ATS pick: Northern Illinois
Fallica: Duke had to pull a couple of upsets just to get to a bowl game, so the Blue Devils are clearly happy to be here. MAC teams have struggled lately in bowls, but people might not realize the NIU defense is in the top 20 nationally in expected points added. Defensive lineman Sutton Smith led the nation with 14 sacks, and the defense single-handedly won the game at Nebraska earlier this season. I also like the added dimension that freshman quarterback Marcus Childers gives NIU since taking over. The Huskies will be in this one all the way and just might even pull off the outright upset.
ATS pick: Northern Illinois
Score: Northern Illinois 24, Duke 23
Cactus Bowl
Kansas State Wildcats (-2.5, 63) vs. UCLA Bruins
Dec. 26, 9 p.m., ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix
PickCenter: 75 percent pick Kansas State
Steele: Bill Snyder is one of the greatest head coaches in the country, so it is a surprise to me that he is just 8-10 in bowl games straight up. UCLA is led by interim head coach Jedd Fisch, who called all the plays this year as the offensive coordinator. Fisch does have Josh Rosen as his quarterback, and the Bruins averaged 495 yards per game, despite struggling to establish the run most of the year. The UCLA defense suffered a bunch of injuries to the front seven and allowed a ridiculous 283 yards rushing per game and 5.7 yards per carry.
Kansas State was down to its third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson over the final three games, but he acquitted himself well. The Wildcats match up well as they like to run the ball and go versus that porous rush defense. I rank the Kansas State defense No. 39, and UCLA's at No. 82. I was already leaning with Kansas State with the defense and coaching edge, but then tossed in the special teams. I rate Kansas State with the No. 1 special teams unit, while UCLA is way down at No. 116. I am surprised that Kansas State is favored by less than field goal.
ATS pick: Kansas State
Harris: We fully expect UCLA to outperform Kansas State on a per-play basis, but Snyder knows that the game is about possessions, not plays. The Wildcats will take advantage of superior special teams and a miserable UCLA rushing defense to control the ball, the clock, the field position and the game. Rosen probably will throw for 400 yards, but moving the ball between the 20s isn't the same as finishing drives. UCLA won't get many chances, and a ball-hawking Kansas State secondary led by D.J. Reed and Duke Shelley will end enough Bruins drives with turnovers to make the difference.
Score: Kansas State 35, UCLA 28
ATS pick: Kansas State
