Best bets on Week 15 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
It's Week 15 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Saturday
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5)
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: The underdog is now 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine Bears games, as they are strong in that role, but poor as a favorite. Chicago beat the Bengals on the road last week, and after generating just 140 and 147 yards the previous two weeks, they had a 482-234 yardage edge. Four weeks ago, Chicago was a three-point 'dog against Detroit and led 17-7 but lost on a late 52-yard field goal by three. Detroit is just 1-3 in its past four home games, but those losses were to Carolina, Pittsburgh and Minnesota, which are three of the NFL's elite. Since Mitchell Trubisky was named starter, the Bears have either won or been within one score of every game except for a trip to Philadelphia. The Bears are getting close to a touchdown here, and I think they have a shot at pulling the upset.
ATS pick: Lean on Chicago
Warren Sharp's take: Chicago has faced one of the most brutal stretches of run defenses in the NFL, but the Lions' run defense is one of the weakest they've faced. In that Week 11 meeting, the Bears were dominant on the ground: They ran the ball for 222 yards, at 7.4 yards per carry and a 60 percent success rate. From Weeks 1-5, when Haloti Ngata was in the starting lineup, the Lions' run defense ranked sixth in rushing success rate allowed (39 percent) and 10th in explosive run rate allowed (10 percent). But in hindsight, there were some issues. This solid success came against the third-easiest schedule of rushing offenses. Then, the Lions lost Ngata. And since Week 6, the Lions have played the most difficult schedule of rushing offenses and rank 31st in rushing success rate allowed (54 percent) and 27th in explosive run rate allowed (14 percent). With a strong, explosive run game, I see the Bears staying in this one from start to finish.
Play: Bears +5.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 23, Chicago 19
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI +5.5, 44
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (PK)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: I could make a case for both teams here. Kansas City is 22-8 straight up at home the past four years, and during that span, they have been a home 'dog once, beating the mighty New England Patriots 41-14 in 2014. Kansas City has also won the past seven matchups between these two, including a win on the road this year. The Chargers are currently the hottest team in football, as the last four weeks they are plus-182 yards per game, albeit versus a soft schedule. They began the year 0-4 but have won seven of the past nine, and a win here gives the visitor control of the division. While I will enjoy watching this, I also have a tough time going against either of these two in a huge AFC West matchup.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers are peaking at the right time, but they've also defeated a fair number of non-quality teams. In fact, in their four games against top-10 teams in total efficiency, the Chargers are 0-4, losing to the Jaguars, Patriots, Eagles and the Chiefs earlier this season. The Chiefs' massive offensive dropoff in the middle of the season appears to be turning around, with strong performances against the Jets and Raiders, but the problem for the Chiefs is that four of their five most recent opponents rank 23rd or worse in explosive pass defense, which allowed the Chiefs to gain more explosive passing. The Chargers rank fourth in explosive pass defense. In their prior meeting back in Week 3, the Chargers were successful on just 35 percent of their passes, and only 4percent made explosive gains. The Chargers are playing more consistent football, and if they can get better production inside the red zone, they could pull this one out.
Pick: Lean Chargers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Kansas City 21
The pick: Los Angeles Chargers and the under -- LAC -1, 46
Sunday
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Miami
Phil Steele's take: The Miami players must have cringed a little looking at the highlights of the Bills game last week, knowing they had to travel there this week. The early forecast is just cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow and temperatures in the high 20s. The Dolphins are coming off a huge effort on Monday night against New England, when they dominated the game, leading 27-10 with a 362-248 yardage edge. Miami is 1-5 ATS in its past six road trips with the five losses coming by an average of 23.2 points per game.
The Bills have beaten all five teams they have taken on at home that have losing records and won those game by 9.6 points per game. The Bills' only home losses were to New England and New Orleans. Tyrod Taylor returns this week, and Buffalo has the much stronger run game, as Miami's leading rusher this year is still Jay Ajayi, who isn't even on the team. Kenyan Drake has produced consecutive 100-yard efforts for the Dolphins, but Buffalo has LeSean McCoy, who is capable of taking over a game. At 7-6, Buffalo is still very much alive for the playoffs and should grab the frigid home win.
ATS pick: Lean on Buffalo
Warren Sharp's take: After the upset win over the Patriots, the Dolphins are in a prime letdown spot heading on the road to cold Buffalo. The Dolphins' offense has trended upward substantially the past two games, but the Broncos lack a strong run game and the Patriots were unable to run, thanks to a solid lead by the Dolphins that forced short passes from the Patriots. Buffalo can and will look to run, as they are the No. 1 most run-heavy team in the league. However, year to date, the strength of the Dolphins' defense has been against the run, and the Bills have personnel limitations in their offensive pass game. I would look to back the Dolphins, but on the short week, the spot is terrible.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Buffalo 21, Miami 19
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: I am really looking forward to playing these Browns on a weekly basis next season. The Browns have proved they can play with most teams and are actually middle of the road statistically this season, being outgained by just 17 yards per game and having a top-10 defense. Add in all the high draft picks they get in 2018, and the Browns will have a huge turnaround. Enough about the future; the Ravens come in lower than Cleveland statistically at minus-23 yards per game. They are actually playing their best ball of the year recently, going 4-2. They are coming off a Sunday night loss to Pittsburgh, during which they led 38-29 in the fourth quarter, so at 7-6, they are in a must-win mode.
Baltimore has handled two teams they faced on the road that had backup quarterbacks (Oakland and Green Bay) and beat them by 18 points per game. DeShone Kizer would be a backup quarterback on almost every other team. The Browns will put up their usual fight and appear to be on their way to a win, but just like every other week, they will find a way not to win (led Green Bay 21-7 in fourth quarter last week), and more importantly, to cover. Baltimore is plus-13 in turnovers, and Cleveland is minus-17. The Browns' magic number is two to wrap up the top pick in the draft, and I expect them to get one step closer here.
ATS pick: Lean on Baltimore
Warren Sharp's take: It's hard to envision more ways the Browns can blow not just straight up wins, but also ATS wins. The Browns are catching seven in this game against the Ravens, but even large spreads are not safe. The Ravens pass defense has fallen apart since losing CB Jimmy Smith. Meanwhile, the Browns rushing defense is still playing at a very high level and hopes to slow down the surprising Alex Collins. The Ravens may rely more on the arm of Joe Flacco given his recent performance, and the Browns pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL (29th).
ATS pick: Browns
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cleveland 17
The pick: Over -- CLV +7, 40
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: I went against a road-weary Vikings squad (third straight away from home) last week, as Carolina was at home and desperate. While the Vikings trailed 24-13 in the fourth quarter, they actually tied it late (361-275 yardage edge) until a 62-yard run by Cam Newton sparked the Panthers' game-winning touchdown. That shows me that Minnesota has a legitimate shot at earning home field for the NFC and being the first ever team to host a Super Bowl. Minnesota has been dominant at home this year outgaining foes by 130 yards per game, including a 451-254 yardage edge versus the powerful Los Angeles Rams. The Bengals got themselves back into the playoff chase a few weeks back but fired their best shot at Pittsburgh and came up short. With their hopes basically gone, they were destroyed by the Bears last week. The 5-8 Bengals now take to the road, and in their last four road games, they have been outgained by 190 yards per game. I like to play on the best teams in the NFL the week after a loss, and even though the spread is inflated and the Vikings offensive line is banged up, Minnesota gets a feel-good win at home.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: If the Bengals' defense was 100 percent, this game would look much different. LB Vontaze Burfict, CB Dre Kirkpatrick and LB Nick Vigil did not practice as of Thursday, and multiple Bengals are listed as questionable. The reason it would have been big was because the Vikings' offensive line has been bit by the injury bug as well. After the big home loss to the Steelers, the undermanned Bengals stood little chance physically and mentally against the Bears. The Bengals' run defense was completely gutted by the Bears without Burfict in there, and the Vikings will have plenty of opportunities to put in work on the ground.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 28, Cincinnati 15
The pick: Minnesota and the over -- MIN -10.5, 42
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-15.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: I like to take good teams in the NFL that are coming off a loss, and that has me on the side of the Saints in this one. The Saints have now lost two of the past three games, but both losses were versus solid teams on the road, in the Rams and Falcons. New Orleans has won its past five home games, but only by 11 points per game. The Jets had outgained four straight teams including Carolina, but last week came up flat in the altitude of Denver, getting shut out and totaling only 100 yards of offense. They now face a Saints defense that is allowing just 309 yards per game at home. While the Jets are highly competitive at home, they are now minus-132 yards per game on the road. Unfortunately, the public will bet this up, as the Jets lost by 23 on the road to the lowly Broncos last week. The line was New Orleans -10.5 and jumped to -16 now that Jets quarterback Josh McCown is out for the season. Bryce Petty doesn't inspire confidence.
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans
Warren Sharp's take: With Bryce Petty under center, and the Saints in the middle of a sandwich game against the Falcons, this is a game I want no part of. The Saints' offensive specialty is their rushing offense, and the Jets rank 13th against the run, but are extremely poor against the pass. With the struggling Jets offense likely to give the Saints the ball back frequently, expect the Saints offense to be productive. But the Jets defense is still not a pushover, and there is not any value in this number to take the Saints, even though they should win decisively.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 32, New York Jets 17
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO -15, 47
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles are coming off what could basically be considered two road playoff games, as both were important and went down to the wire. The good news is Philadelphia had 115- and 148-yardage edges in those matchups and looked like the best team in the NFL. The bad news is they lost quarterback Carson Wentz, who has a 33:7 TD:INT ratio this season. Nick Foles does have 36 NFL starts and led the comeback win in Los Angles last week. This is the last NFC foe that the Eagles face this season, and a win would put them 10-1 vs. the conference and give them the tiebreaker over the Vikings. The Eagles need to get Foles up to speed, as he could be sitting on the bench in the season finale to avoid a potential injury for the playoffs.
Eli Manning returned to the lineup for the Giants, and they showed some heart for three quarters last week, as they were tied 10-10 heading into the final frame. The Cowboys would go on to score 20 points in the last 7:38 of the game for the victory. Philadelphia is No. 1 in the NFL statistically at plus-96 yards per game, and the Giants are dead last at minus-100 yards per game.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp's take: The Foles era takes a second turn in the city of Philadelphia this week, and they get to face a reeling Giants defense, which has allowed tremendous rushing efficiency to recent opponents. The Eagles will need to lean more on their run offense, so it is fortuitous they get to face the 27th-ranked Giants run defense. Meanwhile, while the Giants have returned the services of Eli , the offense is not markedly different than it has been most of the season. I expect the Eagles to struggle on third-and-long situations, as Wentz had a knack for excelling in that situation and prevented far more punts than the Eagles actually kicked away. Look for the Eagles to pull out the win, but with so many moving pieces, my confidence is low.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 25, New York Giants 15
The pick: Philadelphia -7.5
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4.5)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Arizona
Phil Steele's take: The Cardinals delivered an ATS winner for me last week with their upset of the Titans. The Redskins have played the second-toughest schedule in the NFL this season and are a respectable minus-13 yards per game despite their 5-8 record. The past four weeks, they have not played at that level, as they are minus-52 yards per game versus only the No. 19 schedule. Washington has also started seven different offensive line combos over the past eight games. Those numbers indicate a strong play on Arizona +4.5. The only negative is that the Redskins are a much stronger team at home at plus-76 yards per game, and their only losses have been to the Eagles, Cowboys and Vikings. Arizona is just 2-4 on the road with its only wins at the Colts and 49ers, who have combined for five wins. The Cardinals are minus-51 yards per game and minus-11 points per game on the road. While Arizona is in better current form, Washington has a large home edge, so I will pass on this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: After back-to-back road blowouts the Redskins return home against a tough Cardinals defense. The Redskins are down to just RB Samaje Perine, as their RB corps has been decimated by injury, and he is unlikely to have much success against a stout Cardinals run defense. That means the burden will fall to Kirk Cousins, as it has done much of the season. Fortunately, Blaine Gabbert has struggled of late for the Cardinals, and the Redskins will welcome that reprieve after having to deal with the passing offenses of the Chargers (No. 3), Saints (No. 7) and Vikings (No. 6) in three of their last five games.
Lean: Cardinals
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 23, Arizona 19
The pick: Arizona +4.5
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Carolina
Phil Steele's take: Aaron Rodgers is an amazing player, and he can take an average Green Bay team and turn it into a Super Bowl contender. If he returns and leads Green Bay to an upset here, it would be yet another incredible accomplishment, but I am banking against it. He has not played in eight weeks and is taking on a Carolina defense that is No. 2 in the NFL in holding foes below their season averages. Cam Newton has tossed just one interception the past five games. Green Bay trailed Cleveland last week 21-7 and were being outgained 297-162 before the Browns found a way to lose yet again. Green Bay has the No. 23 defense in the NFL, and the Panthers have a solid home edge and can cement their playoff berth with a win.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Erin Rynning's take: Much is made, and deservedly so, of Rodgers' return for the Packers this week. However, expect a more conservative offensive game plan for the Packers. It's imperative they max-protect against a tremendous Panthers front line, while it'd be no surprise if Rodgers is a bit rusty in his first game back. Meanwhile, the Panthers want to play keep away and control the game with their robust ground attack, which has averaged 194 yards per game rushing their last five games.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: As Rodgers returns for his first game since Week 6, the scary part for the Panthers' strong defense is the fact that while Rodgers was gone, the Packers worked to develop the third-most efficient rushing offense. So this offense, which was pass-heavy last season and to start this one, can now be fully balanced and gets the supreme decision making from Rodgers. Two key areas where Rodgers will help immensely: deep passing and red zone efficiency. Rodgers posted a 103 rating as compared to Brett Hundley's 68 rating on deep passing, and Rodgers averaged 17 yards per attempt, which was almost eight yards per attempt better than Hundley. And in the red zone, Rodgers led the Packers to a 79 percent conversion rate, by far the best in the NFL, as compared to Hundley's 50 percent mark.
Lean: Packers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 24, Green Bay 21
The pick: Green Bay and the under -- GB +3.0, 47
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11)
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Jacksonville's up-and-down record against the spread came to an end last week, as they scored two touchdowns in 1:43 on a 75-yard touchdown pass followed by a 72-yard punt return to the 1-yard line. They benefited from a 3-1 turnover edge versus the veteran, big-game Seahawks. Jacksonville has a great defense, and Blake Bortles has had consecutive solid games. Houston is 4-2 ATS on the road but could struggle here with the injury bug continuing to mount. These teams met in the opener, and Houston had its top defensive players, but lost at home 29-7. Jacksonville took another step up that ladder, as they now have beaten two of the top teams in the NFL (Pittsburgh and Seattle). The Jaguars have only San Francisco on deck, so they will not look past their division rival. Tom Savage was replaced by T.J. Yates last week, but both will struggle here versus "Sacksonville." The next step for the Jaguars is to string together three straight good games, and I think they get that accomplished.
ATS pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: Following the huge victory over Seattle, the Jaguars are in a big flat spot taking on the Texans. However, the Jaguars have a few things going for them. First, this is their last home game of the year. Second, at 9-4 the Jaguars are still fighting with the 8-5 Titans for the AFC South as well as the possibility of a first-round bye. And third and most important, they are by far the better team. The Titans just played two very bad defenses (Titans and 49ers) and lost both by double digits. But the issue becomes, can the Jaguars win this by a large margin when the Texans do have a very good run defense. It will be more difficult for the Jaguars to run out the clock against the sixth-rated Jaguars run defense.
Lean: Texans
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 26, Houston 14
The pick: Jacksonville and the over -- JAX -10.5, 39
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Total:
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: Statistically these two teams are almost dead even, with the Seahawks plus-33 yards per game and the Rams plus-25 yards per game. I love to play on top-notch teams coming off a loss, but both come in following a defeat, so there is no value here. My eyeball test tells me that the Rams are the stronger team, and the Seahawks' mystique factor dropped a few notches last week with their road loss to upstart Jacksonville. While a game down in the standings and having five losses this season, all Seattle has to do is win its final three games, and the NFC West title belongs to them. If the Seahawks lose, they could end up missing the playoffs altogether, so I will take Pete Carroll at home in a must-win situation with a playoff atmosphere.
ATS pick: Seattle
Warren Sharp's take: The most intriguing matchup in this game will be the Rams offense, with the infusion of Robert Woods, against this banged-up Seahawks defense. The Seahawks are already without two of the three "Legion of Boom" in the secondary, and saw both LBs Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright go down last week with injuries, and neither has practiced yet this week. Offensively the Rams line is dealing with injuries to LT Andrew Whitworth and RG Rob Havenstein, but Havenstein did practice on Thursday, and beat reporters believe Whitworth is on track to play. The reason why this side of the ball is so huge is the Rams offense has struggled in hostile territory this year, putting up just 7 points in Minnesota, and Goff has certainly showed regression in matchups against marquee defenses. There is a very good chance the Rams could control time of possession in this game, which would be huge to their chances of winning this game. The Rams run defense is noticeably worse than their pass defense, but the Seahawks struggle immensely to run the ball. The Rams lost starting CB Kayvon Webster last week and since week 8 they are allowing TEs to record a 57 percent success rate on red zone targets. This game will come down to big plays from Russell Wilson and targets to Jimmy Graham in the red zone.
Pick: Pass (due to unknown status of Wagner and Wright)
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 24, Los Angeles Rams 23
The pick: Los Angeles Rams +1.5
New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: Both teams got caught looking ahead to this game, but the Steelers rallied back from a 38-29 fourth quarter deficit to get past Baltimore at home. The Patriots not only lost at Miami, but were outgained by 114 yards (trailed 27-10 at one point). If Pittsburgh wins, it knocks New England out of contention for the No. 1 seed, while a Patriots win gives them the upper hand, as they go into the season's final two weeks. New England rates the edge on offense, and surprisingly even with Le'Veon Bell leading the league in rushing, the Steelers have failed to top 92 yards rushing in five of their past six games. New England has won five of its past seven trips to Heinz Field, and Tom Brady has a 22-0 ratio in the last seven meetings between the two. This figures to be a high-scoring shootout with the Steelers missing LB Ryan Shazier, and I will call for New England to win yet another high-stakes game.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Erin Rynning's take: Look for a major bounce back for the Patriots' offense that floundered Monday night with a season-low 248 yards. Of course, the return of Rob Gronkowski is vital, as more cohesion can be expected from the unit. The Steelers are still weakened with the loss of Shazier and can break down in the secondary. The Steelers' offense is finally flashing the potential of their offense of late, averaging more than 450 yards of offense in their past three games. The Patriots' defensive numbers are poor. However, their bend-but-don't-break style has kept points off the board. Still, with the Steelers' vast array of playmaker touchdowns will be in order.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: The most efficient strategy for the Steelers to upset the Patriots will likely be the one they choose to avoid, and that is rely heavily on rushes from Bell. Over the past month, the Steelers have gone 72 percent passes, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL. Since Week 8 the Patriots have allowed a 40 percent success rate on passes, the fourth best in the league, while their run defense ranks worst in the league, allowing a 57 percent success rate. Focusing more on third down, the Patriots pass defense is allowing an incredible 27 percent success rate on third-down passes since Week 8, but a 72 percent success rate on third-down runs, the worst in the NFL.
Staying on the field, converting first downs and scoring points while keeping Tom Brady on the sideline should be a goal, and it will be achieved easiest if Pittsburgh commits to a more balanced strategy, with far more rushing plays than have been called recently. But because I'm uncertain the Steelers employ the most efficient strategy, I cannot ignore the 22 TDs to 0 INTs and 128 passer rating from Tom Brady against the Steelers since 2007.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 26, Pittsburgh 25
The pick: Pittsburgh and the under -- PIT +3, 53.5
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent San Francisco
Phil Steele's take: The 49ers have now won three of their past four games and are not doing it with smoke and mirrors. San Francisco is top-five on both offense and defense and plus-102 yards per game during that span. Jimmy Garoppolo has played in three games and has completed 67 percent of his passes with 314 yards per game in his two starts. I went against Tennessee last week with a 5-7 Arizona team, and the Cardinals had a 261-204 yardage edge and pulled off the upset. Despite their 8-5 record, the Titans are being outgained by seven yards per game. Marcus Mariota barely runs the ball anymore, and he has a 10:14 TD:INT ratio this season. The Titans have won just four of their 13 games by more than four points.
Since the Titans are playing with playoff needs, I was surprised that they're an underdog to a 3-10 San Francisco squad. The guys in Las Vegas are pretty smart, as the 49ers deserve to be favored. There is not much difference between being an underdog of less than three or a favorite of less than three, so the line won't affect me. The hometown 49ers are the stronger team here.
ATS pick: San Francisco
Erin Rynning's take: As noted last week, Garopplo is making all the difference for the 49ers with the offense averaging more than 400 yards the past two weeks. No question the offense is moving forward, but still this is a team loaded with flaws. There's a huge difference in value this week in dealing with this 49ers team, while facing a team's that has won six of their past eight. The 49ers were more than a field goal underdog two weeks ago against the Bears, while a month ago this team was actually a field goal underdog on their home turf against the Giants. Now, it is favored against a Titans team that is fighting for the playoffs seems too much. The Titans lost last week in Arizona and note they stayed on the West Coast all week much like the Eagles, who responded in a similar situation last week. The Titans still possess a potent ground game to eventually open the passing game against the decimated and weak San Francisco secondary.
Pick: Titans and over
Warren Sharp's take: Playing in back to back road games against West Coast opponents, the Titans are hoping to rebound after a 12-7 loss against the Cardinals last week, while the 49ers are hoping to push Garoppolo's record to 3-0 with a win in his first home game. I said last week the Titans were the most overrated 8-4 teams and took the Cardinals, who won outright. This week, the game truly comes down to how much Marcus Mariota has been depleted with injuries. His hamstring isn't 100 percent and he tweaked his knee against the Cardinals. Now he must face a somewhat resurgent 49ers defense. It's amazing how much an improved offense can help a defense, but the 49ers defense went from 26th against the pass to 14th in the last three weeks, and against the run, they went from 20th up to first. They also shifted from 29th in explosive run defense to fourth best. The Titans defense does a great job at limiting explosive plays but is struggling tremendously against the pass, and is the weakest defense Garoppolo has faced this year.
ATS pick: 49ers -1
Mike Clay:
Prediction: San Francisco 24, Tennessee 22
The pick: San Francisco and the over -- SF -2, 44.5
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
It's Week 15 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Saturday
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5)
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Detroit
Phil Steele's take: The underdog is now 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine Bears games, as they are strong in that role, but poor as a favorite. Chicago beat the Bengals on the road last week, and after generating just 140 and 147 yards the previous two weeks, they had a 482-234 yardage edge. Four weeks ago, Chicago was a three-point 'dog against Detroit and led 17-7 but lost on a late 52-yard field goal by three. Detroit is just 1-3 in its past four home games, but those losses were to Carolina, Pittsburgh and Minnesota, which are three of the NFL's elite. Since Mitchell Trubisky was named starter, the Bears have either won or been within one score of every game except for a trip to Philadelphia. The Bears are getting close to a touchdown here, and I think they have a shot at pulling the upset.
ATS pick: Lean on Chicago
Warren Sharp's take: Chicago has faced one of the most brutal stretches of run defenses in the NFL, but the Lions' run defense is one of the weakest they've faced. In that Week 11 meeting, the Bears were dominant on the ground: They ran the ball for 222 yards, at 7.4 yards per carry and a 60 percent success rate. From Weeks 1-5, when Haloti Ngata was in the starting lineup, the Lions' run defense ranked sixth in rushing success rate allowed (39 percent) and 10th in explosive run rate allowed (10 percent). But in hindsight, there were some issues. This solid success came against the third-easiest schedule of rushing offenses. Then, the Lions lost Ngata. And since Week 6, the Lions have played the most difficult schedule of rushing offenses and rank 31st in rushing success rate allowed (54 percent) and 27th in explosive run rate allowed (14 percent). With a strong, explosive run game, I see the Bears staying in this one from start to finish.
Play: Bears +5.5
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 23, Chicago 19
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI +5.5, 44
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (PK)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Kansas City
Phil Steele's take: I could make a case for both teams here. Kansas City is 22-8 straight up at home the past four years, and during that span, they have been a home 'dog once, beating the mighty New England Patriots 41-14 in 2014. Kansas City has also won the past seven matchups between these two, including a win on the road this year. The Chargers are currently the hottest team in football, as the last four weeks they are plus-182 yards per game, albeit versus a soft schedule. They began the year 0-4 but have won seven of the past nine, and a win here gives the visitor control of the division. While I will enjoy watching this, I also have a tough time going against either of these two in a huge AFC West matchup.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: The Chargers are peaking at the right time, but they've also defeated a fair number of non-quality teams. In fact, in their four games against top-10 teams in total efficiency, the Chargers are 0-4, losing to the Jaguars, Patriots, Eagles and the Chiefs earlier this season. The Chiefs' massive offensive dropoff in the middle of the season appears to be turning around, with strong performances against the Jets and Raiders, but the problem for the Chiefs is that four of their five most recent opponents rank 23rd or worse in explosive pass defense, which allowed the Chiefs to gain more explosive passing. The Chargers rank fourth in explosive pass defense. In their prior meeting back in Week 3, the Chargers were successful on just 35 percent of their passes, and only 4percent made explosive gains. The Chargers are playing more consistent football, and if they can get better production inside the red zone, they could pull this one out.
Pick: Lean Chargers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 23, Kansas City 21
The pick: Los Angeles Chargers and the under -- LAC -1, 46
Sunday
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent Miami
Phil Steele's take: The Miami players must have cringed a little looking at the highlights of the Bills game last week, knowing they had to travel there this week. The early forecast is just cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow and temperatures in the high 20s. The Dolphins are coming off a huge effort on Monday night against New England, when they dominated the game, leading 27-10 with a 362-248 yardage edge. Miami is 1-5 ATS in its past six road trips with the five losses coming by an average of 23.2 points per game.
The Bills have beaten all five teams they have taken on at home that have losing records and won those game by 9.6 points per game. The Bills' only home losses were to New England and New Orleans. Tyrod Taylor returns this week, and Buffalo has the much stronger run game, as Miami's leading rusher this year is still Jay Ajayi, who isn't even on the team. Kenyan Drake has produced consecutive 100-yard efforts for the Dolphins, but Buffalo has LeSean McCoy, who is capable of taking over a game. At 7-6, Buffalo is still very much alive for the playoffs and should grab the frigid home win.
ATS pick: Lean on Buffalo
Warren Sharp's take: After the upset win over the Patriots, the Dolphins are in a prime letdown spot heading on the road to cold Buffalo. The Dolphins' offense has trended upward substantially the past two games, but the Broncos lack a strong run game and the Patriots were unable to run, thanks to a solid lead by the Dolphins that forced short passes from the Patriots. Buffalo can and will look to run, as they are the No. 1 most run-heavy team in the league. However, year to date, the strength of the Dolphins' defense has been against the run, and the Bills have personnel limitations in their offensive pass game. I would look to back the Dolphins, but on the short week, the spot is terrible.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Buffalo 21, Miami 19
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Cleveland Browns
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Baltimore
Phil Steele's take: I am really looking forward to playing these Browns on a weekly basis next season. The Browns have proved they can play with most teams and are actually middle of the road statistically this season, being outgained by just 17 yards per game and having a top-10 defense. Add in all the high draft picks they get in 2018, and the Browns will have a huge turnaround. Enough about the future; the Ravens come in lower than Cleveland statistically at minus-23 yards per game. They are actually playing their best ball of the year recently, going 4-2. They are coming off a Sunday night loss to Pittsburgh, during which they led 38-29 in the fourth quarter, so at 7-6, they are in a must-win mode.
Baltimore has handled two teams they faced on the road that had backup quarterbacks (Oakland and Green Bay) and beat them by 18 points per game. DeShone Kizer would be a backup quarterback on almost every other team. The Browns will put up their usual fight and appear to be on their way to a win, but just like every other week, they will find a way not to win (led Green Bay 21-7 in fourth quarter last week), and more importantly, to cover. Baltimore is plus-13 in turnovers, and Cleveland is minus-17. The Browns' magic number is two to wrap up the top pick in the draft, and I expect them to get one step closer here.
ATS pick: Lean on Baltimore
Warren Sharp's take: It's hard to envision more ways the Browns can blow not just straight up wins, but also ATS wins. The Browns are catching seven in this game against the Ravens, but even large spreads are not safe. The Ravens pass defense has fallen apart since losing CB Jimmy Smith. Meanwhile, the Browns rushing defense is still playing at a very high level and hopes to slow down the surprising Alex Collins. The Ravens may rely more on the arm of Joe Flacco given his recent performance, and the Browns pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL (29th).
ATS pick: Browns
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cleveland 17
The pick: Over -- CLV +7, 40
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Minnesota
Phil Steele's take: I went against a road-weary Vikings squad (third straight away from home) last week, as Carolina was at home and desperate. While the Vikings trailed 24-13 in the fourth quarter, they actually tied it late (361-275 yardage edge) until a 62-yard run by Cam Newton sparked the Panthers' game-winning touchdown. That shows me that Minnesota has a legitimate shot at earning home field for the NFC and being the first ever team to host a Super Bowl. Minnesota has been dominant at home this year outgaining foes by 130 yards per game, including a 451-254 yardage edge versus the powerful Los Angeles Rams. The Bengals got themselves back into the playoff chase a few weeks back but fired their best shot at Pittsburgh and came up short. With their hopes basically gone, they were destroyed by the Bears last week. The 5-8 Bengals now take to the road, and in their last four road games, they have been outgained by 190 yards per game. I like to play on the best teams in the NFL the week after a loss, and even though the spread is inflated and the Vikings offensive line is banged up, Minnesota gets a feel-good win at home.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Warren Sharp's take: If the Bengals' defense was 100 percent, this game would look much different. LB Vontaze Burfict, CB Dre Kirkpatrick and LB Nick Vigil did not practice as of Thursday, and multiple Bengals are listed as questionable. The reason it would have been big was because the Vikings' offensive line has been bit by the injury bug as well. After the big home loss to the Steelers, the undermanned Bengals stood little chance physically and mentally against the Bears. The Bengals' run defense was completely gutted by the Bears without Burfict in there, and the Vikings will have plenty of opportunities to put in work on the ground.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 28, Cincinnati 15
The pick: Minnesota and the over -- MIN -10.5, 42
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-15.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent New York
Phil Steele's take: I like to take good teams in the NFL that are coming off a loss, and that has me on the side of the Saints in this one. The Saints have now lost two of the past three games, but both losses were versus solid teams on the road, in the Rams and Falcons. New Orleans has won its past five home games, but only by 11 points per game. The Jets had outgained four straight teams including Carolina, but last week came up flat in the altitude of Denver, getting shut out and totaling only 100 yards of offense. They now face a Saints defense that is allowing just 309 yards per game at home. While the Jets are highly competitive at home, they are now minus-132 yards per game on the road. Unfortunately, the public will bet this up, as the Jets lost by 23 on the road to the lowly Broncos last week. The line was New Orleans -10.5 and jumped to -16 now that Jets quarterback Josh McCown is out for the season. Bryce Petty doesn't inspire confidence.
ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans
Warren Sharp's take: With Bryce Petty under center, and the Saints in the middle of a sandwich game against the Falcons, this is a game I want no part of. The Saints' offensive specialty is their rushing offense, and the Jets rank 13th against the run, but are extremely poor against the pass. With the struggling Jets offense likely to give the Saints the ball back frequently, expect the Saints offense to be productive. But the Jets defense is still not a pushover, and there is not any value in this number to take the Saints, even though they should win decisively.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 32, New York Jets 17
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO -15, 47
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants
Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Philadelphia
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles are coming off what could basically be considered two road playoff games, as both were important and went down to the wire. The good news is Philadelphia had 115- and 148-yardage edges in those matchups and looked like the best team in the NFL. The bad news is they lost quarterback Carson Wentz, who has a 33:7 TD:INT ratio this season. Nick Foles does have 36 NFL starts and led the comeback win in Los Angles last week. This is the last NFC foe that the Eagles face this season, and a win would put them 10-1 vs. the conference and give them the tiebreaker over the Vikings. The Eagles need to get Foles up to speed, as he could be sitting on the bench in the season finale to avoid a potential injury for the playoffs.
Eli Manning returned to the lineup for the Giants, and they showed some heart for three quarters last week, as they were tied 10-10 heading into the final frame. The Cowboys would go on to score 20 points in the last 7:38 of the game for the victory. Philadelphia is No. 1 in the NFL statistically at plus-96 yards per game, and the Giants are dead last at minus-100 yards per game.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Warren Sharp's take: The Foles era takes a second turn in the city of Philadelphia this week, and they get to face a reeling Giants defense, which has allowed tremendous rushing efficiency to recent opponents. The Eagles will need to lean more on their run offense, so it is fortuitous they get to face the 27th-ranked Giants run defense. Meanwhile, while the Giants have returned the services of Eli , the offense is not markedly different than it has been most of the season. I expect the Eagles to struggle on third-and-long situations, as Wentz had a knack for excelling in that situation and prevented far more punts than the Eagles actually kicked away. Look for the Eagles to pull out the win, but with so many moving pieces, my confidence is low.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Philadelphia 25, New York Giants 15
The pick: Philadelphia -7.5
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4.5)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Arizona
Phil Steele's take: The Cardinals delivered an ATS winner for me last week with their upset of the Titans. The Redskins have played the second-toughest schedule in the NFL this season and are a respectable minus-13 yards per game despite their 5-8 record. The past four weeks, they have not played at that level, as they are minus-52 yards per game versus only the No. 19 schedule. Washington has also started seven different offensive line combos over the past eight games. Those numbers indicate a strong play on Arizona +4.5. The only negative is that the Redskins are a much stronger team at home at plus-76 yards per game, and their only losses have been to the Eagles, Cowboys and Vikings. Arizona is just 2-4 on the road with its only wins at the Colts and 49ers, who have combined for five wins. The Cardinals are minus-51 yards per game and minus-11 points per game on the road. While Arizona is in better current form, Washington has a large home edge, so I will pass on this one.
ATS pick: Pass
Warren Sharp's take: After back-to-back road blowouts the Redskins return home against a tough Cardinals defense. The Redskins are down to just RB Samaje Perine, as their RB corps has been decimated by injury, and he is unlikely to have much success against a stout Cardinals run defense. That means the burden will fall to Kirk Cousins, as it has done much of the season. Fortunately, Blaine Gabbert has struggled of late for the Cardinals, and the Redskins will welcome that reprieve after having to deal with the passing offenses of the Chargers (No. 3), Saints (No. 7) and Vikings (No. 6) in three of their last five games.
Lean: Cardinals
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Washington 23, Arizona 19
The pick: Arizona +4.5
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Carolina
Phil Steele's take: Aaron Rodgers is an amazing player, and he can take an average Green Bay team and turn it into a Super Bowl contender. If he returns and leads Green Bay to an upset here, it would be yet another incredible accomplishment, but I am banking against it. He has not played in eight weeks and is taking on a Carolina defense that is No. 2 in the NFL in holding foes below their season averages. Cam Newton has tossed just one interception the past five games. Green Bay trailed Cleveland last week 21-7 and were being outgained 297-162 before the Browns found a way to lose yet again. Green Bay has the No. 23 defense in the NFL, and the Panthers have a solid home edge and can cement their playoff berth with a win.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Erin Rynning's take: Much is made, and deservedly so, of Rodgers' return for the Packers this week. However, expect a more conservative offensive game plan for the Packers. It's imperative they max-protect against a tremendous Panthers front line, while it'd be no surprise if Rodgers is a bit rusty in his first game back. Meanwhile, the Panthers want to play keep away and control the game with their robust ground attack, which has averaged 194 yards per game rushing their last five games.
Pick: Under
Warren Sharp's take: As Rodgers returns for his first game since Week 6, the scary part for the Panthers' strong defense is the fact that while Rodgers was gone, the Packers worked to develop the third-most efficient rushing offense. So this offense, which was pass-heavy last season and to start this one, can now be fully balanced and gets the supreme decision making from Rodgers. Two key areas where Rodgers will help immensely: deep passing and red zone efficiency. Rodgers posted a 103 rating as compared to Brett Hundley's 68 rating on deep passing, and Rodgers averaged 17 yards per attempt, which was almost eight yards per attempt better than Hundley. And in the red zone, Rodgers led the Packers to a 79 percent conversion rate, by far the best in the NFL, as compared to Hundley's 50 percent mark.
Lean: Packers
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Carolina 24, Green Bay 21
The pick: Green Bay and the under -- GB +3.0, 47
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11)
Total: 38.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Houston
Phil Steele's take: Jacksonville's up-and-down record against the spread came to an end last week, as they scored two touchdowns in 1:43 on a 75-yard touchdown pass followed by a 72-yard punt return to the 1-yard line. They benefited from a 3-1 turnover edge versus the veteran, big-game Seahawks. Jacksonville has a great defense, and Blake Bortles has had consecutive solid games. Houston is 4-2 ATS on the road but could struggle here with the injury bug continuing to mount. These teams met in the opener, and Houston had its top defensive players, but lost at home 29-7. Jacksonville took another step up that ladder, as they now have beaten two of the top teams in the NFL (Pittsburgh and Seattle). The Jaguars have only San Francisco on deck, so they will not look past their division rival. Tom Savage was replaced by T.J. Yates last week, but both will struggle here versus "Sacksonville." The next step for the Jaguars is to string together three straight good games, and I think they get that accomplished.
ATS pick: Lean on Jacksonville
Warren Sharp's take: Following the huge victory over Seattle, the Jaguars are in a big flat spot taking on the Texans. However, the Jaguars have a few things going for them. First, this is their last home game of the year. Second, at 9-4 the Jaguars are still fighting with the 8-5 Titans for the AFC South as well as the possibility of a first-round bye. And third and most important, they are by far the better team. The Titans just played two very bad defenses (Titans and 49ers) and lost both by double digits. But the issue becomes, can the Jaguars win this by a large margin when the Texans do have a very good run defense. It will be more difficult for the Jaguars to run out the clock against the sixth-rated Jaguars run defense.
Lean: Texans
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 26, Houston 14
The pick: Jacksonville and the over -- JAX -10.5, 39
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Total:
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent Seattle
Phil Steele's take: Statistically these two teams are almost dead even, with the Seahawks plus-33 yards per game and the Rams plus-25 yards per game. I love to play on top-notch teams coming off a loss, but both come in following a defeat, so there is no value here. My eyeball test tells me that the Rams are the stronger team, and the Seahawks' mystique factor dropped a few notches last week with their road loss to upstart Jacksonville. While a game down in the standings and having five losses this season, all Seattle has to do is win its final three games, and the NFC West title belongs to them. If the Seahawks lose, they could end up missing the playoffs altogether, so I will take Pete Carroll at home in a must-win situation with a playoff atmosphere.
ATS pick: Seattle
Warren Sharp's take: The most intriguing matchup in this game will be the Rams offense, with the infusion of Robert Woods, against this banged-up Seahawks defense. The Seahawks are already without two of the three "Legion of Boom" in the secondary, and saw both LBs Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright go down last week with injuries, and neither has practiced yet this week. Offensively the Rams line is dealing with injuries to LT Andrew Whitworth and RG Rob Havenstein, but Havenstein did practice on Thursday, and beat reporters believe Whitworth is on track to play. The reason why this side of the ball is so huge is the Rams offense has struggled in hostile territory this year, putting up just 7 points in Minnesota, and Goff has certainly showed regression in matchups against marquee defenses. There is a very good chance the Rams could control time of possession in this game, which would be huge to their chances of winning this game. The Rams run defense is noticeably worse than their pass defense, but the Seahawks struggle immensely to run the ball. The Rams lost starting CB Kayvon Webster last week and since week 8 they are allowing TEs to record a 57 percent success rate on red zone targets. This game will come down to big plays from Russell Wilson and targets to Jimmy Graham in the red zone.
Pick: Pass (due to unknown status of Wagner and Wright)
Mike Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 24, Los Angeles Rams 23
The pick: Los Angeles Rams +1.5
New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent New England
Phil Steele's take: Both teams got caught looking ahead to this game, but the Steelers rallied back from a 38-29 fourth quarter deficit to get past Baltimore at home. The Patriots not only lost at Miami, but were outgained by 114 yards (trailed 27-10 at one point). If Pittsburgh wins, it knocks New England out of contention for the No. 1 seed, while a Patriots win gives them the upper hand, as they go into the season's final two weeks. New England rates the edge on offense, and surprisingly even with Le'Veon Bell leading the league in rushing, the Steelers have failed to top 92 yards rushing in five of their past six games. New England has won five of its past seven trips to Heinz Field, and Tom Brady has a 22-0 ratio in the last seven meetings between the two. This figures to be a high-scoring shootout with the Steelers missing LB Ryan Shazier, and I will call for New England to win yet another high-stakes game.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Erin Rynning's take: Look for a major bounce back for the Patriots' offense that floundered Monday night with a season-low 248 yards. Of course, the return of Rob Gronkowski is vital, as more cohesion can be expected from the unit. The Steelers are still weakened with the loss of Shazier and can break down in the secondary. The Steelers' offense is finally flashing the potential of their offense of late, averaging more than 450 yards of offense in their past three games. The Patriots' defensive numbers are poor. However, their bend-but-don't-break style has kept points off the board. Still, with the Steelers' vast array of playmaker touchdowns will be in order.
Pick: Over
Warren Sharp's take: The most efficient strategy for the Steelers to upset the Patriots will likely be the one they choose to avoid, and that is rely heavily on rushes from Bell. Over the past month, the Steelers have gone 72 percent passes, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL. Since Week 8 the Patriots have allowed a 40 percent success rate on passes, the fourth best in the league, while their run defense ranks worst in the league, allowing a 57 percent success rate. Focusing more on third down, the Patriots pass defense is allowing an incredible 27 percent success rate on third-down passes since Week 8, but a 72 percent success rate on third-down runs, the worst in the NFL.
Staying on the field, converting first downs and scoring points while keeping Tom Brady on the sideline should be a goal, and it will be achieved easiest if Pittsburgh commits to a more balanced strategy, with far more rushing plays than have been called recently. But because I'm uncertain the Steelers employ the most efficient strategy, I cannot ignore the 22 TDs to 0 INTs and 128 passer rating from Tom Brady against the Steelers since 2007.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay:
Prediction: New England 26, Pittsburgh 25
The pick: Pittsburgh and the under -- PIT +3, 53.5
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent San Francisco
Phil Steele's take: The 49ers have now won three of their past four games and are not doing it with smoke and mirrors. San Francisco is top-five on both offense and defense and plus-102 yards per game during that span. Jimmy Garoppolo has played in three games and has completed 67 percent of his passes with 314 yards per game in his two starts. I went against Tennessee last week with a 5-7 Arizona team, and the Cardinals had a 261-204 yardage edge and pulled off the upset. Despite their 8-5 record, the Titans are being outgained by seven yards per game. Marcus Mariota barely runs the ball anymore, and he has a 10:14 TD:INT ratio this season. The Titans have won just four of their 13 games by more than four points.
Since the Titans are playing with playoff needs, I was surprised that they're an underdog to a 3-10 San Francisco squad. The guys in Las Vegas are pretty smart, as the 49ers deserve to be favored. There is not much difference between being an underdog of less than three or a favorite of less than three, so the line won't affect me. The hometown 49ers are the stronger team here.
ATS pick: San Francisco
Erin Rynning's take: As noted last week, Garopplo is making all the difference for the 49ers with the offense averaging more than 400 yards the past two weeks. No question the offense is moving forward, but still this is a team loaded with flaws. There's a huge difference in value this week in dealing with this 49ers team, while facing a team's that has won six of their past eight. The 49ers were more than a field goal underdog two weeks ago against the Bears, while a month ago this team was actually a field goal underdog on their home turf against the Giants. Now, it is favored against a Titans team that is fighting for the playoffs seems too much. The Titans lost last week in Arizona and note they stayed on the West Coast all week much like the Eagles, who responded in a similar situation last week. The Titans still possess a potent ground game to eventually open the passing game against the decimated and weak San Francisco secondary.
Pick: Titans and over
Warren Sharp's take: Playing in back to back road games against West Coast opponents, the Titans are hoping to rebound after a 12-7 loss against the Cardinals last week, while the 49ers are hoping to push Garoppolo's record to 3-0 with a win in his first home game. I said last week the Titans were the most overrated 8-4 teams and took the Cardinals, who won outright. This week, the game truly comes down to how much Marcus Mariota has been depleted with injuries. His hamstring isn't 100 percent and he tweaked his knee against the Cardinals. Now he must face a somewhat resurgent 49ers defense. It's amazing how much an improved offense can help a defense, but the 49ers defense went from 26th against the pass to 14th in the last three weeks, and against the run, they went from 20th up to first. They also shifted from 29th in explosive run defense to fourth best. The Titans defense does a great job at limiting explosive plays but is struggling tremendously against the pass, and is the weakest defense Garoppolo has faced this year.
ATS pick: 49ers -1
Mike Clay:
Prediction: San Francisco 24, Tennessee 22
The pick: San Francisco and the over -- SF -2, 44.5
