Automatically? No. Is it something to consider? Yes.
It is something to consider if that CFB league was bad for a few years in a row. You should check what that particular conference did after a really bad year, if you don`t have more stats then it`s ridiculous to say that conference will be just as bad this year too.
As you can see, I don’t post much, but I read a lot of threads. Forums are for exchanging ideas, theories, systems, even hunches, and for lurkers like me to check them out and accept or reject them. If you disagree with someone’s methods, you should make a note to ignore them and avoid their threads. There is nothing to be accomplished by telling someone their thinking is bullshit. And, I think Enfuego is either unable or unwilling to look behind Serbone’s statement to see his point. Public perception of the PAC-12 being better than it is may in fact result in Vegas setting lines which are off in their games, giving an edge to a gambler who notices that those teams consistently fail to cover over the years. The teams and coaches change year to year, but if the factor he is observing is an over perception by the betting public year to year that a conference is stronger than it really is.
Since this thread was started to attack my thread to recommend Boise + 7 (BIG) by someone who invaded other threads to smear Boise and support Oregon, let me restate:
YES, a capper should consider and evaluate previous years conference vs conference ATS results, especially when they are one sided as in the case of the 0-6 PAC 12. No it should not be used for every single game. It is a factor, not a 100% system.
I was passing on what proved to be valuable information.
Last year ACC went 9-2. Are the lines adjusted this year?
I even look at top teams vs lower level teams in the standings in conferences, for example some times the top 2 do well and the rest get slaughtered especially in non power 5 conferences. Just an example not a formula.
Last night I mentioned CUSA top conference winner vs lil MAC team that got blown out in its conference championship as a factor.
GL!
YES, a capper should consider and evaluate previous years conference vs conference ATS results, especially when they are one sided as in the case of the 0-6 PAC 12. No it should not be used for every single game. It is a factor, not a 100% system.
I was passing on what proved to be valuable information.
Last year ACC went 9-2. Are the lines adjusted this year?
I even look at top teams vs lower level teams in the standings in conferences, for example some times the top 2 do well and the rest get slaughtered especially in non power 5 conferences. Just an example not a formula.
Last night I mentioned CUSA top conference winner vs lil MAC team that got blown out in its conference championship as a factor.
GL!
There's more than one way to get to the right decision....I don't believe in discounting one's theories or their key pieces of information they use to cap games because they are contrary to what i think. It's all worth some level of consideration and if it's an angle that can help improve my ability or knowledge to cap games, even better. We all have the same objective.
This isn't the premise of the conversation and you know it. Your premise was since one conference did badly in bowls in a previous year, they will do bad the next year.
In math and in life, this isn't something you can say under any circumstance. If XYZ happened previously, it doesn't mean XYZ will happen in the future. This is a ludicrous thought process.
And quit being a fucking baby. Nobody attacked your thread. You won the game. I congratulated you. Your capping method was dumb but it won.
mac 8-22 su and 10-20 ats since 2012 in bowl games...trending downward past few seasons. Great thinking on your part.
pac 12 25-18 su and 21-21 ats since 2012 in bgs...ly 0-6 was an outlier for the conference. Only time conference was more than a game under .500 ats was a long time ago and they bounced back strong. If we want to make a case by numbers, enfuego is correct. Ly is irrelevant in the case of the Pac 12. Outlier not a trend.
Best of luck this bowl season.
RE this ridiculous, warped thread, please note that I cited other factors, not just previous conference success, please see my original post on the game.
I looked at motivation (Boise would like to beat fancy pants regional power conference Oregon as much as or more than the Oregon kids wanted to win for their new fru fru coach... everybody said that, but "why?")
I looked at success (conference championship game winners tend to do well in bowls)
I looked at Boise's QB, not too shabby...
ETC.
Read it.
AND I did not say the Pac 12 has sucked going back to John McCay's days, I said they were overrated last year and it is likely to continue. I did not say I will go against the Pac 12 every game, did I?
I had Boise as a top 25 club and a lot of other things to consider but if you post too much even if you win some weirdo loserboy will pick apart something and misrepresent what was stated, as has been done repeatedly.
I look at last year's bowl results conference to conference and adjust as the bowls adjust. If you had Michigan - 7 last year against Florida State when the ACC was on a tear, well, you probably make a living working in a toll booth.
YES I look at previous bowl results. It works. Look at a few other posts of mine, I took into consideration the Sun and CUSA early bowl success lately depending on the opponent.
GL!
Serbone
RX Senior
Join DateSep 2010LocationMidwestPosts1,449
12-16-2017, 12:38 PM
I looked at motivation (Boise would like to beat fancy pants regional power conference Oregon as much as or more than the Oregon kids wanted to win for their new fru fru coach... everybody said that, but "why?")
I looked at success (conference championship game winners tend to do well in bowls)
I looked at Boise's QB, not too shabby...
ETC.
Read it.
AND I did not say the Pac 12 has sucked going back to John McCay's days, I said they were overrated last year and it is likely to continue. I did not say I will go against the Pac 12 every game, did I?
I had Boise as a top 25 club and a lot of other things to consider but if you post too much even if you win some weirdo loserboy will pick apart something and misrepresent what was stated, as has been done repeatedly.
I look at last year's bowl results conference to conference and adjust as the bowls adjust. If you had Michigan - 7 last year against Florida State when the ACC was on a tear, well, you probably make a living working in a toll booth.
YES I look at previous bowl results. It works. Look at a few other posts of mine, I took into consideration the Sun and CUSA early bowl success lately depending on the opponent.
GL!
Serbone
RX Senior
Wasn't the Pac 12 0-6 ATS in bowls last year?
Boise won the MWC this year, and that ain't so bad.
They are getting 7 points.
Everybody on Earth says "Oregon is motivated to win for their new coach". Yes their # 1 QB is solid. But who did they beat?
What, do the Boise kids not want to win? Beat a big shot POWER conference Pac 12 team?
Boise has a good QB, solid team, I say take Boise + 7, medium wager.
GL!
Boise won the MWC this year, and that ain't so bad.
They are getting 7 points.
Everybody on Earth says "Oregon is motivated to win for their new coach". Yes their # 1 QB is solid. But who did they beat?
What, do the Boise kids not want to win? Beat a big shot POWER conference Pac 12 team?
Boise has a good QB, solid team, I say take Boise + 7, medium wager.
GL!
