How To Bet Monday Night's Bucs-Falcons NFL Game
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's game between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 49
PickCenter: 82 percent on Atlanta
Phil Steele
The Falcons head to Tampa with some extra rest following a Thursday night victory over the Saints on Dec. 7. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, saw the Lions connect on a 46-yard field goal with 20 seconds on the clock for their third consecutive defeat. While the Falcons need a win here to stay within range of claiming a second straight NFC South title, keep in mind that Tampa Bay has covered three of its past five matchups against Atlanta. With the line quickly approaching a touchdown in favor of the visiting Falcons, I'll lean in the direction of the home team here as Atlanta has actually trailed at halftime in three of its past four away games.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay
Erin Rynning
Simply put, the Buccaneers are the worst defensive team in the NFL, allowing a horrible 6.1 yards per play. To make matters worse, they're expected to be without their two best defenders, Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. The Falcons are obviously equipped to take advantage with Matt Ryan and his third-ranked offense averaging 6 yards per play. Obviously, the onus falls on a capable Buccaneers offense, as Jameis Winston takes healthy steps forward each week.
Pick: Over (and lean on Atlanta)
Warren Sharp
David, McCoy and Vernon Hargreaves III have all been ruled out, so it gets that much easier for Ryan and the Falcons. After facing the top-10 pass defenses of the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints, the Falcons get to face the No. 31 Bucs pass defense. Last week, Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions had a 59 percent success rate and gained 8.7 yards per play against that unit and would have done even more on the scoreboard if not for multiple turnovers in Buccaneers territory. This Falcons defense has buttoned things up of late and is unlikely to allow big, explosive plays to DeSean Jackson. Still, the spot is terrible for the Falcons with a must-win matchup against the Saints on deck.
Pick: Lean on Atlanta
Mike Clay
Prediction: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 22
ATS pick: Tampa Bay and the under
John Parolin's prop bets
74.5 receiving yards by Mike Evans (O/U -110)
What has happened to the Tampa Bay offense? Even before and after Winston's injury, the offense simply hasn't been the productive unit everyone predicted it would be. Mike Evans is still getting the looks -- his 105 targets are tied for 15th in the league -- but he's outside the top 20 in catches, yards and touchdowns. Winston simply hasn't hit on the big plays with Evans at all -- Evans has four receptions on throws at least 20 yards downfield, tied for 33rd in the league. This was an Evans staple, as only Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton and Antonio Brown had more catches on deep balls than Evans did in the first three years of his career (37).
Don't expect much improvement Monday night, either. Atlanta has been one of the better teams in the league at limiting big plays, a staple of the defenses Dan Quinn ran in Seattle. The Falcons' defense has allowed 12 completions at least 20 yards downfield, tied for fifth fewest in the league. Only the Eagles and Chargers allowed fewer yards per attempt on deep throws than the Falcons. As for the really big plays, the "instant overs"? Winston is 1-for-6 targeting Evans at least 30 yards downfield this year -- and don't blame Jackson for soaking up all the production, as the speedy wideout is 0-for-9 on the same throws. It's not Evans or Jackson -- it's Winston. He's flat-out missed on two-thirds of his 30-yard throws this season. Atlanta isn't the opponent to bet on the Evans bounce-back.
Play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's game between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 49
PickCenter: 82 percent on Atlanta
Phil Steele
The Falcons head to Tampa with some extra rest following a Thursday night victory over the Saints on Dec. 7. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, saw the Lions connect on a 46-yard field goal with 20 seconds on the clock for their third consecutive defeat. While the Falcons need a win here to stay within range of claiming a second straight NFC South title, keep in mind that Tampa Bay has covered three of its past five matchups against Atlanta. With the line quickly approaching a touchdown in favor of the visiting Falcons, I'll lean in the direction of the home team here as Atlanta has actually trailed at halftime in three of its past four away games.
ATS pick: Lean on Tampa Bay
Erin Rynning
Simply put, the Buccaneers are the worst defensive team in the NFL, allowing a horrible 6.1 yards per play. To make matters worse, they're expected to be without their two best defenders, Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. The Falcons are obviously equipped to take advantage with Matt Ryan and his third-ranked offense averaging 6 yards per play. Obviously, the onus falls on a capable Buccaneers offense, as Jameis Winston takes healthy steps forward each week.
Pick: Over (and lean on Atlanta)
Warren Sharp
David, McCoy and Vernon Hargreaves III have all been ruled out, so it gets that much easier for Ryan and the Falcons. After facing the top-10 pass defenses of the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints, the Falcons get to face the No. 31 Bucs pass defense. Last week, Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions had a 59 percent success rate and gained 8.7 yards per play against that unit and would have done even more on the scoreboard if not for multiple turnovers in Buccaneers territory. This Falcons defense has buttoned things up of late and is unlikely to allow big, explosive plays to DeSean Jackson. Still, the spot is terrible for the Falcons with a must-win matchup against the Saints on deck.
Pick: Lean on Atlanta
Mike Clay
Prediction: Atlanta 24, Tampa Bay 22
ATS pick: Tampa Bay and the under
John Parolin's prop bets
74.5 receiving yards by Mike Evans (O/U -110)
What has happened to the Tampa Bay offense? Even before and after Winston's injury, the offense simply hasn't been the productive unit everyone predicted it would be. Mike Evans is still getting the looks -- his 105 targets are tied for 15th in the league -- but he's outside the top 20 in catches, yards and touchdowns. Winston simply hasn't hit on the big plays with Evans at all -- Evans has four receptions on throws at least 20 yards downfield, tied for 33rd in the league. This was an Evans staple, as only Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton and Antonio Brown had more catches on deep balls than Evans did in the first three years of his career (37).
Don't expect much improvement Monday night, either. Atlanta has been one of the better teams in the league at limiting big plays, a staple of the defenses Dan Quinn ran in Seattle. The Falcons' defense has allowed 12 completions at least 20 yards downfield, tied for fifth fewest in the league. Only the Eagles and Chargers allowed fewer yards per attempt on deep throws than the Falcons. As for the really big plays, the "instant overs"? Winston is 1-for-6 targeting Evans at least 30 yards downfield this year -- and don't blame Jackson for soaking up all the production, as the speedy wideout is 0-for-9 on the same throws. It's not Evans or Jackson -- it's Winston. He's flat-out missed on two-thirds of his 30-yard throws this season. Atlanta isn't the opponent to bet on the Evans bounce-back.
Play: Under
