Best bets on Week 16 NFL games

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Best bets on Week 16 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
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It's Week 16 of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Saturday's and Sunday's games.

Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)

Total: 41
PickCenter: 56 percent Indianapolis

Phil Steele's take: The Colts are the worst team in the NFL statistically as they have been outgained by 95 yards per game. They have now lost four in a row ATS. I was down on Baltimore midseason, but this current Ravens team would have beaten that midseason team by at least a touchdown, as they have gotten better weekly. Baltimore is plus-13 in turnovers the last five weeks and has four wins by 18 points per game this season. Baltimore is 3-1-1 ATS as a home favorite this season and needs just one loss by Buffalo or Tennessee, who are both large 'dogs this week. Joe Flacco has had his top three passing performances the last three weeks (269 yards per game), and Indianapolis has mustered just 253 yards per game total offense the last five weeks. My main caution is that with playoff need, this line is pretty elevated.


ATS pick: Lean on Baltimore

Warren Sharp's take: The Colts' offense is in a quagmire, given the fact they cannot protect QB Jacoby Brissett at all, as they rank 32nd in pass-protection efficiency. Last week in Cleveland, the Ravens defense, which has its weak points once CB Jimmy Smith went out for the season, was able to shut down the 32nd-ranked passing offense of the Browns 27-10 and now faces the 31st-ranked Colts passing offense. In games against top passing defenses, like the second-ranked Ravens, the Colts have totaled 0, 9 and 10 points. Meanwhile, the Ravens should have little trouble moving the ball in the air or on the ground against the Colts' defense, which has been hemorrhaging explosive runs and passes of late and ranks 31st in pass-rush efficiency, giving Flacco ample time to find his targets.

Lean: Ravens

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Baltimore 25, Indianapolis 14
The pick: Indianapolis and the under -- IND +13.5, 41


Minnesota Vikings (-9) at Green Bay Packers

Total: 41
PickCenter: 57 percent Minnesota

Phil Steele's take: Aaron Rodgers nearly led the Packers to a victory over a rugged Carolina team in his return from a nine-week layoff. Now that they are eliminated from the playoffs, it is time to put him back on the shelf and get their franchise quarterback ready for 2018. Brett Hundley is 1-3 in starts at home, with the Packers' lone win coming in overtime against Tampa Bay (outgained by 101 yards per game in those contests with losses by 9, 13 and 23). Minnesota is still fighting for a possible No. 1 seed and needs to hang on to the No. 2 seed and bye at the least. The Vikings are 4-1 straight up and ATS in their last five road games, and they are on an 8-1 ATS run overall. Minnesota has the No. 8 offense and No. 2 defense and is plus-84 yards per game. Green Bay has always been a tough home 'dog, but that was with Rodgers, and I like the Vikings here.

ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota

Warren Sharp's take: It was so unfortunate to see the Packers lose last week and fall out of playoff contention entirely, because it resulted in us losing one of the NFL's best QBs for a second time this season, as Rodgers will not play anymore this season. The big question is how does Mike McCarthy play this game, now that the Packers are out of contention. The team was 4-1 before Rodgers was injured, and they played their eight games without Rodgers desperately trying to win each game. With Rodgers on the road against a tough Panthers defense, they couldn't get it done, and for the first time in years, McCarthy has no shot at the playoffs. So how does he play this game with Hundley? Do the Packers play as if things are normal? Do they go for broke as large home underdogs, much like they did against the Steelers in Pittsburgh? With too many question marks for the Packers' offense, their strategy and health, there isn't enough to go on. And the Vikings bring the fourth-best defense in the league. In two meetings with top-five defenses where Hundley started or took the most snaps, he put up 10 and zero points.

Pick: Pass

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Minnesota 26, Green Bay 17
The pick: Minnesota and the over -- MIN -9, 40.5


Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

Total: 38
PickCenter: 60 percent Chicago

Phil Steele's take: The Browns have won just a single game in two years, but it was on Christmas Eve, and it is that magical day again this year. The Bears are 8-1-2 ATS as a home 'dog the last two years, but a poor 0-6 ATS as a home favorite the past three years, losing all six outright and to some pretty poor teams. Despite the Bears having four wins, the teams are even statistically, with Cleveland at minus-24 yards per game and Chicago at minus-28. Pittsburgh will not be resting players next week, so if the Browns are going to avoid 0-16, they need to win here with Hue Jackson's future potentially depending on it. Last week, the Bears trailed Detroit 20-3, being outgained 266-92 before some garbage yards and points. I have gone against the Browns almost every week this season, but I see this as a low-scoring slugfest with two solid defenses and just the No. 26 and No. 30 offenses. The spread is up near a touchdown, and I will call for the Browns in the outright upset.

ATS pick: Cleveland

Warren Sharp's take: The opportunities for the Browns to erase the "0" in their record have dwindled to just two games. The matchup with the Bears i- well suited for their strengths, as the Browns are the NFL's best run defense and the Bears are the NFL's third-most run heavy team and are far more efficient running the ball than passing the ball. The problem for the Browns is their run defense has tailed off of late, dropping from the NFL's best team to the 23rd-ranked team over their last four games. The Bears certainly will probe that deficiency and see if it opens the flood gates to an easier path to beat the Browns rather than passing the ball. On the other side, the Bears are one of the best-coached and hardest-working defenses. But they aren't the level of the Ravens or the Chargers, and they are more injured than those teams were when they really limited this Browns offense.

Lean: Browns

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Chicago 20, Cleveland 13
The pick: Chicago and the under -- CHI -6.5, 38


Detroit Lions (-4) at Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 44
PickCenter: 64 percent Detroit

Phil Steele's take: The Lions were outgained by the Bears last week but had a 266-92 yardage edge early in the third quarter and led 20-3 with Chicago getting 223 yards on its last three drives. The Bengals took their best shot against Pittsburgh three weeks ago but came up short. With playoff hopes gone, their banged-up team has been noncompetitive the last two games. The Bengals have been outscored 80-14 the last nine quarters, so they are the 'dog here. This appears to be Marvin Lewis' final game at home, as news has surfaced that he'll be moving on. The Lions have slim playoff hopes, as they need to win twice and have the Falcons lose twice, and despite their 8-6 record, they are minus-22 yards per game. The Bengals are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 nondivision home 'dog roles. I expect the Bengals to rally for Lewis after 15 years with the franchise and will call for the upset here.

ATS pick: Lean on Cincinnati

Warren Sharp's take: Off of two straight wins and needing another for the postseason, the Lions are hungry for another victory, which is something the Bengals haven't tasted since Week 12. With Lewis announcing he will be leaving the team following this season, inevitably the team should be motivated in their final home game in Lewis' tenure. The questions remain as to whether the Bengals will see the return of many of their defensive players, including LB Vontaze Burfict, for this game or not. The 20-10 Lions victory over the Bears was deceiving, in that the Bears actually were the more efficient team in both rushing and passing, as well as total yards per play and play success rate. They simply lost the game on account of three turnovers, one of which was in the end zone and the other was at the Lions' 16-yard line. There is zero value on the Lions in this spot, unless the Bengals truly are laying down and have no desire to play for Marvin Lewis one more time in Cincinnati. If they do play hard, they should cover. If they don't, the Lions could easily win this game by at least a touchdown.

Lean: Bengals

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Detroit 25, Cincinnati 20
The pick: Detroit -4.5


Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Tennessee Titans

Total: 47.5
PickCenter: 67 percent Los Angeles

Phil Steele's take: Both teams would be in the playoffs right now, but the gap between these two is like the Grand Canyon. Last week, I said my eye test said the Rams were better than the Seahawks, and they were a rare team to go into Seattle and dominate the game leading 34-0 at the half. Wade Phillips' defense gets better by the week and held Seattle to 159 total yards, and the offense averages 31.3 points per game. The Rams are in great shape but have not clinched a playoff berth yet. They are coming off two big efforts, but on the season, are plus-37 yards per game despite taking on the league's toughest schedule. I have been going against Tennessee regularly, as they are not a playoff-caliber team despite an 8-6 record. They have taken on the weakest schedule in the NFL but are still minus-14 yards per game. Marcus Mariota has a 12-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio, compared to Jared Goff's 24-7 ratio. Tennessee is 5-1 at home, but not a single game was versus a team that would be in the playoffs this week. The Titans are just 4-12-2 ATS their last 18 as a home 'dog.

ATS pick: Los Angeles

Erin Rynning's take: There's little doubt the Rams brought their "A" game last week in dismantling the Seahawks. However, in the NFL, it's simply not that easy to duplicate that performance on the road in back-to-back weeks. If this still-maturing Rams team has shown a weakness this season, it's stopping the run game. That weakness plays to the Titans' strength. The numbers don't jump off the page this year, but the Titans still own a dynamic run game. The Titans have everything to play for, as garnering almost a touchdown on their home turf is too much.

Pick: Titans

Warren Sharp's take: After weeks of playing top defenses, the Rams finally were able to face a good Seahawks defense riddled with injuries and put up 42 points. The Titans' defense is a substantial drop-off from the talent the Rams have been facing recently. Meanwhile, the Titans actually match up well with the Rams' defense, in that the Rams are the third-best pass defense but the 19th-best run defense, and the Titans like to run and are the fifth-most efficient rush team. The issue for the Titans is they struggle in the red zone, and Mariota is far from the player we saw in 2016. The other edge for the Titans is the situation; the Rams are going east for an early kickoff after their biggest win all season, defeating the rival Seahawks.

Pick: Pass

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 28, Tennessee 21
The pick: Los Angeles Rams and the over -- LAR -6.5, 48


Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

Total: 43.5
PickCenter: 56 percent Kansas City

Phil Steele's take: The Chiefs are back in form. The first five weeks of the season, Kansas City averaged 156 yards per game rushing, played to an average game grade of 92.5 and was 5-0 both straight up and ATS. The Chiefs then went 1-6 during their next seven games rushing for an average of just 81 yards per game with an average game grade of just 83.5. The last two games, they were back to the early levels with 170 yards per game rushing and a 95.7 average game grade. That means the buy sign is back on, and I look for them to continue to play at this level the last two games. Kansas City has not allowed any of the last 20 teams that visited Arrowhead to top 20 points on offense, and the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight Chiefs games. Miami was just eliminated from the playoff chase last week and is 1-6 in its last seven road games, losing by an average of 21 points per game (minus-121 yards per game). Kansas City needs one win to wrap up the division and gets a comfortable win here.

ATS pick: Lean on Kansas City

Warren Sharp's take: Miami was solid rushing the football last week, but thanks to the large halftime deficit of 21-6 and going 81 percent pass in the second half, it was a very inefficient second-half performance from Jay Cutler, as he posted a 32 passer rating and averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt, tossing three interceptions in the second half alone. Kansas City appears to have gotten back on track, and plays extremely well at home, thanks to a massive home-field advantage. The Dolphins' defense has looked much better against the pass than against the run, but a large part of that has been as a result of playing the terrible pass offenses of the Broncos (30th) and Bills (28th). The Chiefs are a top-10 pass offense and should be explosive enough against the Dolphins' defense, which ranks as one of the worst against explosive plays the past month. With Travis Kelce being questionable, I'll pass.

Pick: Pass

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Kansas City 25, Miami 18
The pick: Miami +10.5


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-12)

Total: 47
PickCenter: 54 percent New England

Phil Steele's take: I am a little concerned about this being a letdown spot for the Patriots, as they're coming off their much-anticipated matchup versus Pittsburgh and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. The visitor is a perfect 7-0 ATS the last four years in this matchup, and the Bills have won two of the last three in Foxborough straight up. Since Tyrod Taylor retook the quarterback job, the Buffalo defense has thrived, going from allowing 45 points per game in a three-week span to yielding just 14 points per game over the last four. All those points say the Bills have a chance, but do you really think Bill Belichick got his hands on the No. 1 seed with a hard-fought road win and is going to let that slip away? The Patriots went into Buffalo and dominated this year with a 435-268 advantage in yardage. New England is on a 7-1 ATS run, and I will side with the home squad here.

ATS pick: Lean on New England

Warren Sharp's take: After a comeback win that they likely should have lost against the Steelers, the Patriots return home after three straight road games, including dismantling the Bills 23-3 just three weeks ago. The Patriots have yet to establish a truly explosive offensive game since Week 12, but need to win this game in order to secure home field throughout the AFC playoffs. The Bills theoretically should take advantage of the Patriots' run defense weaknesses, and the only time in the last half of the season the Bills ran for better than 50 percent rushing success was Week 13 against the Patriots, when they delivered a 65 percent rushing success rate, by far the best of the season. However, they delivered just an 18 percent passing success rate and won't be able to compete with the Patriots unless that improves.

Lean: Bills

Mike Clay:

Prediction: New England 31, Buffalo 16
The pick: New England -12


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6)

Total: 52.5
PickCenter: 50 percent on both teams

Phil Steele's take: The Falcons and Saints met just two weeks ago. The Saints led 17-10 in the fourth quarter, but Atlanta got a late 52-yard field goal for the win and did have a 26-18 first-down edge in a must-win game for the home team. The Saints were intercepted in the end zone at the end, and Alvin Kamara got injured on the opening drive and did not return. The Saints played a below-average game last week at home versus the Jets and are home again, while Atlanta travels again on a short week after narrowly getting past Tampa Bay. While the Saints are No. 5 in the NFL at plus-73 yards per game, they have faced the toughest schedule of the top five teams. New Orleans has won 10 games, with nine of them by eight or more points. Atlanta is 9-5, and six of those were by six or fewer, so they could be a 4-10 team right now. In its last division showdown at home, New Orleans led Carolina 31-14 before allowing a late touchdown. New Orleans has the better team, is at home, in a solid situation and is playing for revenge.

ATS pick: Lean on New Orleans

Erin Rynning's take: Once again, it's tricky to find fault with the Saints and especially their offense. They rank second in yards per play in both the run and pass game. However, their defense is still concerning down the stretch, as they've faced an easier slate of offenses. The Falcons present the balance to give this team issues from the stout short running game to the deep pass. I have these two teams power rated on equal footing, as the plus six-points is inviting.

Pick: Falcons

Warren Sharp's take: The Saints' defense has played a brutal stretch of strong offenses, facing the Rams, Panthers and Falcons in consecutive weeks, losing both of the games which were on the road. While their defense is nowhere near where they were to start the season, they have performed better in pass defense than run defense. The Falcons' defense has done an excellent job at limiting explosive plays, but their efficiency has struggled immensely, ranking dead last in defensive-passing success rate over the past month of the season. The Saints should have success through both the air and ground, and Julio Jones for the Falcons hasn't practiced as of Thursday.

Lean: Saints

Mike Clay:

Prediction: New Orleans 28, Atlanta 21
The pick: New Orleans and the under -- NO -5.5, 52.5


Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at New York Jets

Total: 42.5
PickCenter: 61 percent Los Angeles

Phil Steele's take: While the Jets are just 5-9 this season, they have had just two poor games all year. One was in September at Oakland, and the other was two weeks ago when they gained just 100 total yards in a shutout loss in Denver. The Jets are 4-3 at home with a win over Kansas City, and their only losses came to powerhouses New England, Atlanta and Carolina (none by more than one score). The Jets are 11-3 ATS as a home 'dog the last three years, including 6-1 this year. The Chargers blew their chance to take charge of the AFC West last week in their road loss to Kansas City. The Chargers did win at this stadium when they beat the Giants back in October. The momentum of the Chargers' four-game win streak is gone. Bryce Petty was a respectable 19-of-39 for 179 yards last week at New Orleans, and they trailed only 24-19 late. Look for a ground-heavy Jets attack to have success against a defense giving up 4.9 yards per carry.

ATS pick: New York

Warren Sharp's take: Last week, the Jets gave a tremendous effort in New Orleans, narrowly dropping the game. This week they host the extremely desperate Chargers, who absolutely must win to have a shot at the playoffs. However, the Chargers sustained several key injuries last week. They will be without TE Hunter Henry, one of the most dynamic offensive weapons in the NFL, in addition to RB Austin Ekeler and possibly OT Russell Okung. On the other side, they are without LB Denzel Perryman and DE Corey Liuget. With the Jets playing hard, open, free and at home, there is the potential for the Jets to produce against an injury-riddled Chargers defense, especially on the ground. But Petty totaled just 179 yards and 4.4 yards per attempt last week. New York will need to receive more from Petty to keep this game within a TD.

Lean: Jets

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 24, New York Jets 17
The pick: Los Angeles Chargers and the under -- LAC -6.5, 42.5


Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (-3)

Total: 40.5
PickCenter: 56 percent Washington

Phil Steele's take: Denver has the No. 1 defense in the NFL, allowing just 277 yards per game, and they are plus-46 yards per game overall, which is sixth best in the NFL despite their 5-9 record. Denver has faced only the No. 25 schedule, and Washington has faced the fourth-toughest, so it is no surprise that the Redskins are minus-17 yards per game. My average game grade takes into account the strength of foes, and Washington has an 87.3 rating and Denver is at 84.7. Kirk Cousins may be auditioning for the Denver quarterback spot, but the Redskins' offense, which has had games like 472 yards versus Oakland and 456 versus the Saints, has ground to a halt with just 233 yards per game the last three weeks. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Denver, but I like that No. 1 defense versus the struggling Washington offense. I rate this game a toss-up with Washington playing its final home game, so I will take the 'dog that is getting more than a field goal.

ATS pick: Lean on Denver

Warren Sharp's take: The Redskins' defense has fallen off tremendously due to injuries, but the Redskins have done tremendously well against the pass, though they have fallen off against the run. The Broncos got their ground game going in a big way last week against the Colts, but they had a ton of opportunities, given how bad the Colts' offense played. The Redskins' offense is stuck playing great defense after great defense, struggling to perform against two top-10 defenses in the Chargers and Cardinals the last two weeks. Without rushing options, the Redskins gained just 1.6 yards per carry and posted just a 40 percent success rate on the ground. Without knowing if Paxton Lynch or Brock Osweiler goes for Denver, this is an easy pass.

Pick: Pass

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Washington 23, Denver 17
The pick: Washington -3.5


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10)

Total: 46.5
PickCenter: 68 percent Carolina

Phil Steele's take: The Panthers' offense is back to full speed now that tight end Greg Olsen is back in form, as he had 12 catches last week. Carolina averaged just 18.6 points per game over the first nine games, but have 32.6 points per game the last five. The Panthers' defense took a hit with linebacker Thomas Davis suspended here. Tampa Bay is a depleted squad but just played its Super Bowl on national TV Monday night versus the Falcons, coming up a missed field goal short at the end. The Panthers are on a 6-1 ATS run, and earlier this year, I had a Best Bet on Carolina +1.5 at Tampa Bay, and the Panthers delivered 17-3. The Panthers led Minnesota 24-13 and the Rodgers-led Packers 31-17 in their last two home games and take a step down in competition. Carolina has plenty to play for, and while they are the No. 5 seed right now, they could climb as high as the No. 2 spot. Carolina is 20-6 straight up and 17-9 ATS over the final four weeks of the season since Ron Rivera took over and is 11-6 ATS the last three years as a home favorite.

ATS pick: Lean on Carolina

Warren Sharp's take: While this is a divisional rivalry game, it's hard not to envision Carolina rolling in this spot. Tampa Bay has played a slew of bad defenses in recent weeks, including the 25th-ranked Falcons twice, the 19th-ranked Packers and the 17th-ranked Lions. The Panthers are a legitimate top-10 defense, and even though they are without Davis, they should be able to play well defensively. The Panthers have historically slowed down Mike Evans, holding him to no more than a 50 percent catch rate in all games since the 2015 season, and have limited him to just two touchdowns in 50 targets. The Buccaneers have struggled against top defenses, posting 3, 10 and 17 points in their lone games against top-10 defenses in which Jameis Winston started and attempted more than 10 passes.

Play: Panthers -10

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Carolina 25, Tampa Bay 18
The pick: Tampa Bay and the under -- TB +10, 46.5


Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 42
PickCenter: 62 percent Jacksonville

Phil Steele's take: Blake Bortles has a 7-0 TD-to-INT ratio over the last three weeks. Jimmy Garoppolo, meanwhile, is now 5-0 as a starting quarterback after completing 31 of 43 passes for 381 yards last week (passer rating of 106.8) against the Titans. Jacksonville had been an up-and-down team all season but is stuck in the up mode with three straight wins and covers (plus-146 yards per game in that span). San Francisco has also won three in a row straight up and ATS and is plus-144 yards per game in those. I do not believe that Tennessee will make the playoffs, and that is the only win San Francisco has over a team that is currently in the playoff mix (the 49ers lost their other four versus playoff-caliber teams by 15 points per game). On the season, Jacksonville is plus-84 yards per game which is best in the NFL. The Jaguars have a slight edge on offense but have the No. 3 defense in the NFL, and San Francisco checks in at No. 22. Jacksonville is 5-2 away from home this season with its five wins by 22, 37, 21, 16 and 12.

ATS pick: Lean on Jacksonville

Warren Sharp's take: The 49ers are clearly a much different team with Garoppolo under center, but the biggest issue which has helped the 49ers has been a weak schedule of pass defenses, particularly the last two games against the 20th-ranked Texans and 24th-ranked Titans pass defenses. The Jaguars are the NFL's best pass defense, so this will be the true test for the 49ers' passing offense. The other big issue for the 49ers is their red zone offense. On the season, they rank 29th with just a 40 percent rate. But the last three weeks, with Garoppolo under center, they are converting just 23 percent. And that has come against the 17th- and 11th-ranked defenses. They now must face the NFL's best red zone defense in the Jaguars. Carlos Hyde has struggled tremendously of late, and the 49ers' ground game struggled tremendously against the Texans and Titans the past two weeks. Though not great, the Jaguars' defense has held every single opponent since their Week 8 bye to no better than a 50 percent rushing success rate, with five of the seven opponents posting 48 percent or worse. While I'd love nothing more than for the 49ers to continue winning under Garoppolo, it's a tough matchup without many weapons apart from Marquise Goodwin.

Play: Jaguars (wait for a better number)

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Jacksonville 24, San Francisco 18
The pick: Jacksonville -4.5


Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5)

Total: 47.5
PickCenter: 58 percent Dallas

Phil Steele's take: I thought that last week was a "back against the wall" type of game at home for Seattle and figured the Seahawks would play like they normally do in December and get the win. After one quarter, I did not have to watch any more, as they were dominated on offense, defense and special teams and trailed 34-0 at the half with just 59 total yards of offense. Both teams are alive for the playoffs, especially with Atlanta facing New Orleans and Carolina the last two games. I believed in that Pete Carroll magic, but the Seahawks lost their last two and have been outgained by 114 yards per game the last three weeks. Seattle has a weak defensive line, no run game besides quarterback Russell Wilson and an injury-plagued defense that is finally giving out. Dallas was on the verge of being eliminated, but has won the last three games and get back Ezekiel Elliott for this. Since Sean Lee returned to the defense, the Cowboys are holding foes to just 301 yards per game. Dallas wins this by more than a touchdown, as this is not the same Seattle squad that I'm used to seeing late in the year.

ATS pick: Lean on Dallas

Erin Rynning's take: At this point, it's extremely difficult to count on this once proud, but now decimated Seahawks defense. They've allowed 72 points the previous two weeks, while the bloodshed just might not be complete. Of course, the Cowboys are sitting on a peak offensive performance, as Elliot returns to the fold, which opens all circuits up. For the Seahawks, the onus clearly falls on capable signal-caller Russell Wilson. He and the offense struggled mightily last week against the Rams, but the task is easier this week against the Cowboys' defense.

Pick: Over

Warren Sharp's take: Dallas has been outstanding in terms of successful runs over the past month, even without Ezekiel Elliott. They rank second in the league with a 57 percent success rate over that stretch. But the issue is the backfield's explosiveness, as well as the receiving out of the backfield. Dallas has produced just a 7 percent explosive run rate the past month, which was down from 14 percent when Elliott was the RB. Additionally, Dallas doesn't offer the same, dynamic RB-pass weaponry without Elliott.

The Seahawks were just pushed around by the Rams at home, and while you can expect them to improve over that performance, I'm not sure they can do it unless Bobby Wagner is close to returning to his previous form (he sat out practice on Thursday) for a second straight day.

Since Sean Lee returned for the Cowboys, their defensive numbers have shown considerable improvement. The big issue is whether Dallas can apply pressure to Russell Wilson and make him uncomfortable in the pocket, like the Rams were able to do. It's a tough ask, but I expect the ball control and efficiency of the Cowboys toforce the Seahawks to pass frequently.

Lean: Cowboys

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Dallas 26, Seattle 21
The pick: Dallas -5


New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

Total: 40.5
PickCenter: 56 percent New York

Phil Steele's take: Blaine Gabbert looked like Blaine Gabbert last week, hitting just 16 of 41 passes for 189 yards with 1 interception, but the Cardinals still had a 286-218 yardage edge on the road. After putting up 21 and 27 points in Gabbert's first two starts this season, they have averaged just 14.3 points per game over the last three. Arizona is a much stronger team at home, going 4-3 and plus-48 yards in the desert. The Giants are second to last in the NFL at minus-81 yards per game. They have been competitive on the road, losing only three of seven road games by more than five points. Eli Manning & Co. put up 504 yards against the Eagles last week. Only one of Arizona's six wins has come by more than five points. Arizona is just 6-11 as a home favorite but did beat both Tennessee and Jacksonville at home this year. I would have Arizona favored by five, so it is a slight lean to the Cardinals.

ATS pick: Lean on Arizona

Warren Sharp's take: The Giants defense has stepped up in a big way the past several weeks. In particular, Steve Spagnuolo has improved the explosive plays on that side of the ball. The Giants have improved from 25th in explosive pass defense to 11th, and from 29th in explosive run defense to 11th. And that has come against three offenses in the Raiders, Cowboys and Eagles, that rank No. 4, No. 10, and No. 11 in offensive efficiency. The Cardinals offense, meanwhile, ranks 29th and that has come against a number of below-average defenses.

The Giants offense is still a major work in progress, but has been substantially more effective in the last month than either the Redskins or Texans offenses -- two teams that put up 20-plus points in victories over the Cardinals. Eli Manning has helped to lead a passing offense which actually ranks 10th in success rate over the past month, and could have more success and better field position thanks to the Big Blue defense potentially performing well against the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals offense.

Pick: Giants +3.5

Mike Clay:

Prediction: Arizona 22, New York Giants 16
The pick: Arizona and the under -- ARZ -3.5, 40
 

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