Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals

NFLTrends · Dec 23, 2017

You are telling me that a linesmaker is GIVING the home team points here, against a sub-par dome team, on the road outside in the coldest game they have played all year (low 30's + snow), with the team possibly playing for their coaches job, and finishing the season with some semblance of success? Bengals arent an organization that plays for draft position, and to knock a team out of the playoffs could be their shining moment for their season.

I expect the Bengals lay it all on the line at home for their coaches and fans and give the lions a huge "FUCK YOU" and send them home packing. Look for them to play as hard as they have all season.

Bengals +3.5

And I wish everyone a Merry Christmas.

bobbyjones2 · Dec 23, 2017

that's a bold call.. wishing you and yours a merry Christmas trends

NFLTrends · Dec 23, 2017

bobbyjones2 said:
that's a bold call.. wishing you and yours a merry Christmas trends

I love being bold!

Merry Christmas to you as well!

mason456 · Dec 23, 2017

That's how you win, separate yourself from the others

JETE · Dec 23, 2017

BuckitDude · Dec 23, 2017

Like a BOSS!

exploited17 · Dec 23, 2017

Thanks for the pick. Absolutely agree GL

indiana · Dec 23, 2017

NFL/T.........on it with you.........you and your family have a great Holiday buddy..........indy

sdf · Dec 23, 2017

thanks and good luck with the pick

i wasnt sure what you meant by

"with the team possibly playing for their coaches job,"

i thought Lewis was gone after this season regardless? this had me fading them since they had nothing to play for with a lame duck coaching staff.

Serbone · Dec 23, 2017

sdf said:
thanks and good luck with the pick

i wasnt sure what you meant by

"with the team possibly playing for their coaches job,"

i thought Lewis was gone after this season regardless? this had me fading them since they had nothing to play for with a lame duck coaching staff.

Cincy players knew coach was leaving last two games and they got hammered. Risky to take a team in disarray like Cincy is, vs motivated team with playoff hopes and superior O & QB.
GL!

Ketch · Dec 23, 2017

Thx trends!!

MikeyLo · Dec 23, 2017

Thanks for the play

croaker · Dec 23, 2017

Thanks Trends

Completely agree, I cap it at Bengals +1 using metrics.

However taking the situation into account:

Stafford is less effective in cold weather. And Lions struggle without production from Stafford.

With Mixon, Kirkpatrick and Burfict back, and it being their last home game and maybe for coach as well, tomorrow is effectively their superbowl.

They may mail it in next week but tomorrow will play hard. Will be easy for them to get up for this one.

Cooper22 · Dec 23, 2017

Thanks trends-and merry Christmas to you and everybody else on here,

sdf · Dec 23, 2017

Serbone said:
Cincy players knew coach was leaving last two games and they got hammered. Risky to take a team in disarray like Cincy is, vs motivated team with playoff hopes and superior O & QB.
GL!

the motivation is tough here for Cincy. betting on them assumes Det will struggle in the cold (they have in the past) and Cincy gives one last good effort for Lewis at home (possible but they clearly havent tried at all since the comeback loss to Pitt 3 weeks ago).

it's a good situational play for the Bengals here. I get the pick by NFLT. guessing a team's motivation is the tough part.

Biz · Dec 23, 2017

I am right there with you sir, here are my comments from another thread....................

......................I took Cincinnati at +5.

The "team needs to win" angle is a gambler's fallacy. Over the last 10 years in games 15 and 16, teams with a winning record playing a team with a losing record are as follows:

40-49%: 19-31 (38%). Road Fav 3-5 (37.5%)
30-40%: 18-29 (38.3%), Road Fav 5-10 (33.3%)
0-29%: 34-33 (50.7%), RF 17-16 (51.5%)

Bengals 5-9 (35.7%). They have looked like crap for 2 weeks, lame duck coach, injuries, etc.. They should get Burfict and Kirkpatrick back, both listed as probable. Detroit has injury issues on the OL, dome team playing outdoors, a defense that isn't very good. Stafford is good but superstar HOF in a better situation is really stretching it. He is a prone to mistakes. Their defense is average at best.

Both teams have similar rushing numbers - awful. Detroit the better passing attack, and also a worse passing defense.

The key will be the health of the Detroit OL and the pressure the Bengals front can put on Stafford. Starting center Travis Swanson is out, RG TJ Lang is doubtful, RT Rick Wagner questionable. So looks like 2 starters are out, and a 3rd possibly out and if not will be less than 100%. Cincinnati 7th in the league with 38 sacks.

If Cincinnati shows up, and after 2 wretched performances I think they will at home, they have a solid shot at winning the game outright. Getting Burfict and Kirkpatrick back will make a difference. I don't see this team laying down with them on the field.

Its early but 36% bets/57% money on the Bengals so the betting markets as of now point to the Bengals also.

Its the final home game of the year, after 2 embarrassing performances. Can Detroit win by a TD?? Sure they can, but I would expect a much better performance from the Bengals on Sunday.

Serbone · Dec 24, 2017

Biz said:
I am right there with you sir, here are my comments from another thread....................

......................I took Cincinnati at +5.

The "team needs to win" angle is a gambler's fallacy. Over the last 10 years in games 15 and 16, teams with a winning record playing a team with a losing record are as follows:

40-49%: 19-31 (38%). Road Fav 3-5 (37.5%)
30-40%: 18-29 (38.3%), Road Fav 5-10 (33.3%)
0-29%: 34-33 (50.7%), RF 17-16 (51.5%)

Bengals 5-9 (35.7%). They have looked like crap for 2 weeks, lame duck coach, injuries, etc.. They should get Burfict and Kirkpatrick back, both listed as probable. Detroit has injury issues on the OL, dome team playing outdoors, a defense that isn't very good. Stafford is good but superstar HOF in a better situation is really stretching it. He is a prone to mistakes. Their defense is average at best.

Both teams have similar rushing numbers - awful. Detroit the better passing attack, and also a worse passing defense.

The key will be the health of the Detroit OL and the pressure the Bengals front can put on Stafford. Starting center Travis Swanson is out, RG TJ Lang is doubtful, RT Rick Wagner questionable. So looks like 2 starters are out, and a 3rd possibly out and if not will be less than 100%. Cincinnati 7th in the league with 38 sacks.

If Cincinnati shows up, and after 2 wretched performances I think they will at home, they have a solid shot at winning the game outright. Getting Burfict and Kirkpatrick back will make a difference. I don't see this team laying down with them on the field.

Its early but 36% bets/57% money on the Bengals so the betting markets as of now point to the Bengals also.

Its the final home game of the year, after 2 embarrassing performances. Can Detroit win by a TD?? Sure they can, but I would expect a much better performance from the Bengals on Sunday.

Teams last week with coaches out or on the bubble 0-4

Chicago
Cincy
Houston
Cleveland

A few games had both teams with coaches on hit seat. Other issues with you answer but that’s enough.

Biz · Dec 24, 2017

Please enlighten us with some of your other "issues" with Cincinnati, other than your "coach on the hot seat" or "better QB".

Geezus, you think the coach on a hot seat angle is plenty enough of a reason to bet a game.

If you have issue with my answer then state them. I'm up for a good debate, but giving one square ass reason isn't enough. Tell me the other reasons you have.

bradyisgod · Dec 24, 2017

This number has come down on my book to -3 Lions. Also, no recent history. Last game was played in 2013 with a Bengals win. I'm very, very cautious betting teams who are not in playoff contention at this point in the year. There may be too much importance placed on playing for the coach as opposed to playing for a playoff spot. I'm not saying to insta bet lions, what I am saying is pump the brakes. Teams definitely fight tooth and nail to make sure they have playoff opportunities. I would tread lightly on this one (and I may even bet lions -3).

Just my opinion on the out sight. I need to review the data and see if anything pops out to me.

Biz · Dec 24, 2017

Serbone said:
Cincy players knew coach was leaving last two games and they got hammered. Risky to take a team in disarray like Cincy is, vs motivated team with playoff hopes and superior O & QB.
GL!

What was different about the last 2 games?? The injury report.

Burfict and Kirkpatrick didn't play the last 2 games.

This is Lewis' final home game, I would be very surprised if the players lay down and quit. I've already given multiple reasons why this game is a good spot for Cincinnati and a tough one for Detroit.

Apparently, you don't think missing 2-3 starters from your OL is a big deal. Or a dome team playing outside in the cold weather, or 2 key defensive starters returning.

You over estimate Stafford, calling him "disagree with those that criticize Stafford, he has been in terrible situations for years, if he was on the right team he would be considered a super star HOF candidate. IMO."

You have got to be kidding me. 212 TDS and 117 INTS in his career, playing in a dome throwing to Calvin Johnson for some of those years. Yeah, what an awful situation to be in throwing to a bum like that. He's thrown for DD Ints every year. He's a solid QB but stop with the HOF superstar on a better team nonsense.

I've also showed you the numbers regarding 50%+ teams vs < 50% teams late in the season. But go ahead and ignore that data also. Detroit can certainly win the game, and perhaps cover, but the Bengals aren't going to lay down which is what you are implying.

Detroit Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals

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