How to bet Pittsburgh at Houston
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Houston Texans
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent on Pittsburgh
Phil Steele
Antonio Brown will miss the final two games of the regular season. Pittsburgh is also off the controversial loss to the Patriots. The Steelers can still regain that home-field edge if the Patriots slip up, but more importantly, they cannot afford a loss or the Jaguars pass them up for the No. 2 seed and bye week. Houston is a depleted team without Deshaun Watson and its top two defensive players. It actually outgained Baltimore and Tennessee on the road, but the past two games have been dominated. This is NBC's National TV game on Christmas Day at home so it figures to give its best effort here. Houston just lost 45-7 at Jacksonville, and the Steelers outgained New England 413-360. I like to play the premier teams in the NFL off a loss, and the Steelers fit that category. This goes from an ATS play to a lean because the Steelers have won only four of the their 14 games this season by more than a touchdown.
ATS pick: Lean on Pittsburgh
Erin Rynning
Of course, the Steelers' offense is in need of downgrading with the loss of the all-everything Brown. Still, the Steelers' offense is loaded on all levels with balance to run and pass, while peaking down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Texans' defense looks worn down allowing 400-plus yards each of the past two weeks to average offensive teams. The unit has lost a lot of talent, while the thin depth is clearly taking its toll. The Texans' offense was horrific against the top-notch Jaguars defense last week. Their offense still has playmakers, and with this essentially serving as their playoff game, nothing will be held back to put points on the board.
Pick: Over
Mike Clay
Prediction: Pittsburgh 26, Houston 20
The pick: Houston and the over -- HST +9, 44
John Parolin's prop bets
19 completions by T.J. Yates (O/U -110)
It hasn't been pretty for Yates. Houston's QB3 has completed 45.6 percent of his passes in his two starts this season, throwing for 152 yards per game against the 49ers and Jaguars. His start against division rival Jacksonville in Week 15 was especially tough -- Yates was 12-of-31 (39 percent) for 128 yards and 4 sacks, in a game in which Houston trailed 31-0 at halftime but Yates still racked up only seven completions in the second half. Jacksonville's cornerbacks are likely the best duo in the league, but expecting Yates to figure it out might be aggressive.
For regression's sake, let's use Yates' career 55.6 completion percentage. For him to complete 20 passes at his career average, he needs to throw 36 passes. He's done that in one of his eight starts -- back in Week 14 of 2011 against the Bengals. The Steelers as a team have had opposing quarterbacks reach 36 attempts in four of 14 games this season. Moving the completion percentage to Yates' current 45.6 figure leaves Yates needing 44 attempts -- an even longer shot.
The play: Under
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84.5 receiving yards by DeAndre Hopkins (O/U -110)
Despite uncertainty at the quarterback position, Hopkins is second in the NFL with 1,313 receiving yards this season. Hopkins is the only player in the top 10 who has caught passes from three different quarterbacks this season. In his past two games (both with Yates), Hopkins still has 12 catches on 24 targets for 192 yards. His 24 targets from Yates in that span are more than three times as many as any other player got from Yates -- but it's not just Yates. Hopkins has been the only Texan to produce in the passing game all season, with Will Fuller V the next-closest in receiving yards (396).
Hopkins has 38.5 percent of his team's receiving yards this season, the highest percentage of any player in the league. While this shows the depths of his production, it also shows how Pittsburgh can organize its game plan. Pittsburgh has allowed the opposing team's top wide receiver to reach at least 85 yards in two of its 14 games this season. Marvin Jones Jr. went for 128 in Week 8, and Rishard Matthews had 113 yards in Week 11. Those quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford and Marcus Mariota) inspire much more confidence than Yates does, even in a down season for Mariota. His target share won't be enough if Yates continues to struggle.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Monday night's tilt between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Houston Texans
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent on Pittsburgh
Phil Steele
Antonio Brown will miss the final two games of the regular season. Pittsburgh is also off the controversial loss to the Patriots. The Steelers can still regain that home-field edge if the Patriots slip up, but more importantly, they cannot afford a loss or the Jaguars pass them up for the No. 2 seed and bye week. Houston is a depleted team without Deshaun Watson and its top two defensive players. It actually outgained Baltimore and Tennessee on the road, but the past two games have been dominated. This is NBC's National TV game on Christmas Day at home so it figures to give its best effort here. Houston just lost 45-7 at Jacksonville, and the Steelers outgained New England 413-360. I like to play the premier teams in the NFL off a loss, and the Steelers fit that category. This goes from an ATS play to a lean because the Steelers have won only four of the their 14 games this season by more than a touchdown.
ATS pick: Lean on Pittsburgh
Erin Rynning
Of course, the Steelers' offense is in need of downgrading with the loss of the all-everything Brown. Still, the Steelers' offense is loaded on all levels with balance to run and pass, while peaking down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Texans' defense looks worn down allowing 400-plus yards each of the past two weeks to average offensive teams. The unit has lost a lot of talent, while the thin depth is clearly taking its toll. The Texans' offense was horrific against the top-notch Jaguars defense last week. Their offense still has playmakers, and with this essentially serving as their playoff game, nothing will be held back to put points on the board.
Pick: Over
Mike Clay
Prediction: Pittsburgh 26, Houston 20
The pick: Houston and the over -- HST +9, 44
John Parolin's prop bets
19 completions by T.J. Yates (O/U -110)
It hasn't been pretty for Yates. Houston's QB3 has completed 45.6 percent of his passes in his two starts this season, throwing for 152 yards per game against the 49ers and Jaguars. His start against division rival Jacksonville in Week 15 was especially tough -- Yates was 12-of-31 (39 percent) for 128 yards and 4 sacks, in a game in which Houston trailed 31-0 at halftime but Yates still racked up only seven completions in the second half. Jacksonville's cornerbacks are likely the best duo in the league, but expecting Yates to figure it out might be aggressive.
For regression's sake, let's use Yates' career 55.6 completion percentage. For him to complete 20 passes at his career average, he needs to throw 36 passes. He's done that in one of his eight starts -- back in Week 14 of 2011 against the Bengals. The Steelers as a team have had opposing quarterbacks reach 36 attempts in four of 14 games this season. Moving the completion percentage to Yates' current 45.6 figure leaves Yates needing 44 attempts -- an even longer shot.
The play: Under
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84.5 receiving yards by DeAndre Hopkins (O/U -110)
Despite uncertainty at the quarterback position, Hopkins is second in the NFL with 1,313 receiving yards this season. Hopkins is the only player in the top 10 who has caught passes from three different quarterbacks this season. In his past two games (both with Yates), Hopkins still has 12 catches on 24 targets for 192 yards. His 24 targets from Yates in that span are more than three times as many as any other player got from Yates -- but it's not just Yates. Hopkins has been the only Texan to produce in the passing game all season, with Will Fuller V the next-closest in receiving yards (396).
Hopkins has 38.5 percent of his team's receiving yards this season, the highest percentage of any player in the league. While this shows the depths of his production, it also shows how Pittsburgh can organize its game plan. Pittsburgh has allowed the opposing team's top wide receiver to reach at least 85 yards in two of its 14 games this season. Marvin Jones Jr. went for 128 in Week 8, and Rishard Matthews had 113 yards in Week 11. Those quarterbacks (Matthew Stafford and Marcus Mariota) inspire much more confidence than Yates does, even in a down season for Mariota. His target share won't be enough if Yates continues to struggle.
The play: Under
