Next year now: 26 bold predictions for the 2018 NFL season
Mike Sando
ESPN INSDER
With the new year approaching, I've collected 26 NFL predictions for 2018 from league insiders, ranking them from most believable to most outlandish.
Why 26? That's how many I had collected when my deadline arrived. Some seem downright far-fetched, but is anything far-fetched in a league that saw the Los Angeles Rams transform themselves into an offensive powerhouse overnight?
We begin with Tom Brady and end with Bill Belichick, with predictions involving Ed Hochuli, Jon Gruden, Dez Bryant and even the UFC in between. I predict you'll enjoy the read.
1. Tom Brady will be even better in 2018
The reason: Welcoming back Julian Edelman from injury next season will restore the Patriots' offense to full power in 2018, as Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks will remain under contract. Brady struggled against Miami when forced to play without both Edelman and Gronkowski. Give Brady one of them and he's fine. Give Brady both of them and look out, rest of NFL.
The caveat: The Patriots could lose offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to a head-coaching job, threatening the continuity that has further set apart New England from most teams. How would the Patriots compensate? They could try to bring back Brian Daboll, who left New England for Alabama after the 2016 season.
2. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will command some Tier 1 votes in 2018 QB Tiers balloting
The reason: While I expect Garoppolo to land in the second tier overall, excitement surrounding his hot start will create enough recency bias for some in the league to err on the side of optimism. There are also voters who had Garoppolo rated among the very best quarterbacks of the 2014 draft class. A few will be ready to anoint him the next in the top tier.
The caveat: Garoppolo still has one more start to make this season. A poor showing against the Rams could affect perceptions, especially if Garoppolo suffers an injury (concerns over his durability linger).
3. Kirk Cousins will not sign an extension with the Washington Redskins
The reason: The thinking is that Cousins, slighted by the team's treatment of him dating to the Robert Griffin III days, has already ruled out a long-term deal with the Redskins. There are no outward signs he is interested in one.
The caveat: Cousins could change his mind if he doesn't see better options elsewhere.
4. Arizona Cardinals QB Carson Palmer will retire
The reason: Palmer has hard miles on his 38-year-old body. People who know him think he's strongly leaning toward retirement.
The caveat: Walking away can be tough. Palmer could feel good enough this offseason to reconsider. The injury he suffered this season was to his non-throwing arm, so there should be no injury-based limitations.
5. The Cardinals will make a huge push for a veteran QB
The reason: It's what must be done for Arizona to keep pace in an NFC West division featuring Russell Wilson, Garoppolo and Jared Goff. The Cardinals will not be selecting early enough in the 2018 draft to target a starting quarterback there. The team hasn't hesitated seeking out veteran QBs in the recent past, from Palmer to Kevin Kolb. Time to move aggressively again.
The caveat: There isn't much of one, but no final decisions have been made regarding Palmer.
6. Jon Gruden will return to coaching with Tampa Bay
The reason: The timing is finally right. Multiple teams with talented young quarterbacks who are underperforming could be in the market for head coaches, starting with the Buccaneers, who just inducted Gruden into their ring of honor amid great fanfare. That ceremony cemented Gruden's legacy in Tampa. A lot of people in the league think it's close to a done deal.
The caveat: Gruden is undefeated since leaving the NFL. He has previously resisted all temptations to walk away from what he has built at ESPN.
7. Patrick Mahomes will be the Chiefs' starting QB
The reason: Alex Smith is entering the final year of his contract, which makes this coming offseason the best time for Kansas City to trade him. Mahomes is going to be the starter in the next year or so, regardless. While Smith has been more explosive than ever as a passer this season, Tyreek Hill is a huge part of that equation.
The caveat: Moving on from Smith could go from difficult to problematic if Smith leads the team on a Super Bowl run. Offensive head coaches such as Andy Reid also appreciate all the little things a veteran quarterback brings to the table.
8. The Browns will select USC quarterback Sam Darnold with the first overall pick
The reason: The Browns must address the position aggressively after so many years of neglect/futility. Darnold projects as a lower-risk alternative to Josh Rosen among quarterbacks atop the draft.
The caveat: There's still a chance that Darnold will return for another season at USC, or that the scouting process could lead Cleveland in another direction.
9. The Rams' Aaron Donald will become the NFL's highest-paid defensive player, but not for long
The reason: Donald held out last summer and should be a priority to re-sign, but the Oakland Raiders' Khalil Mack could get even more as an outside pass-rusher.
The caveat: Mack could always get a deal done first.
10. Gary Kubiak will emerge as an offensive coordinator in 2018
The reason: Kubiak cited health reasons for stepping down as the Broncos' head coach one year ago. If the year off did him good, he could be a candidate to take on a job with less responsibility. The 49ers could be a good fit.
The caveat: Kubiak's health would seem to be the only one.
11. Gus Bradley will return to the Seattle Seahawks
The reason: Insiders expect an eventful offseason for the Seahawks, with big changes to the roster and staff. Bradley, Seattle's defensive coordinator from 2009 to 2012, is finishing a one-year deal with the Chargers. One exec predicted the team could bring back both Bradley and Ken Norton Jr., with or without current defensive coordinator Kris Richard in the picture.
The caveat: Bradley already has a job with the Chargers and is showing he can coordinate an excellent defense outside Seattle. He could re-sign with the Chargers.
12. Bruce Arians will be the next head coach making a splash in the booth
The reason: Arians isn't afraid to speak his mind now, while he's a head coach. Imagine how entertaining and insightful he'd be on TV. Arians could remain relevant and in the spotlight without all the stress. Any network hiring him might need a seven-second delay, however.
The caveat: There could be other competitors in this space, from Marvin Lewis to Jeff Fisher. It's also possible Arians could return to the Cardinals.
13. Dez Bryant will remain with the Dallas Cowboys despite a performance drop
The reason: While Bryant's production no longer justifies his $16.5 million cap figure for 2018, owner Jerry Jones loves certain players and tends to stand by them. For that reason, the Cowboys will consider staff changes more seriously than they will consider moving on from Bryant.
The caveat: The thinking could change if the Cowboys determine Bryant's decline is accelerating.
14. The Jacksonville Jaguars will part with quarterback Blake Bortles
The reason: Poor performances from Bortles have been frequent enough for the Jaguars to know he is not their future quarterback. This is a championship team with the right quarterback. Tom Coughlin will see that and act accordingly.
The caveat: There's evidence that Bortles has improved this season. The sides could work out a compromise contract, allowing Jacksonville to acquire an alternative to compete for the starting job.
15. Former UFC owners Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta will be the next owners of the Carolina Panthers
The reason: The Fertitta brothers are billionaire football lovers with the vision, money and marketing skills the NFL could use; a cousin, Tilman Fertitta, is the new owner of the NBA's Houston Rockets. They are thought to be in contact with the league behind the scenes, conveying their interest in purchasing a team.
The caveat: There will be other suitors, and it's tough to know at this early stage what conditions current owner Jerry Richardson might put in place regarding a sale. Relocation is another consideration here, as the Panthers are not committed to the city beyond the 2018 season.
16. We'll hear much more about the NFL starting a developmental league
The reason: A developmental league could ward off attempts from upstart competitors while helping the NFL develop alliances with an expanding array of digital operators, even if those operators aren't associated with the primary product. The league could also address concerns over quality of play while providing a place to develop coaches, executives and officials.
The caveat: Such a move could require vision. It also could carry upfront costs.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will retire
The reason: Roethlisberger talked about retirement last offseason, revealing a mindset much different from the mindsets that continue to drive Brady and Drew Brees well past their 35th birthdays. This prediction will feel additionally plausible if the Steelers win it all this season.
The caveat: Roethlisberger is scheduled to earn $17 million next season. Most people don't walk away from huge sums of cash.
18. Nick Caserio and Josh McDaniels will begin a great exodus from New England before the kingdom crashes
The reason: It could be better to leave one year early instead of one year late, especially if Caserio and McDaniels see great opportunities for 2018. The Giants could already provide such an opportunity. So could Tampa, Chicago and others.
The caveat: Brady could be playing well enough despite his age to convince Caserio and McDaniels to stick around for another championship or two.
19. The Cleveland Browns will not finish last in the AFC North
The reason: New general manager John Dorsey will dramatically upgrade the quarterback position one way (the draft) or another (veteran market) and probably both. There's enough uncertainty in the rest of the division for Cleveland to rise.
The caveat: Every team in the division has more talent than the Browns have, and the losing culture could be tough to break overnight.
20. Chicago Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky will become the next Jared Goff
The reason: Goff survived a rough rookie season to see his career take off with improved weaponry and the right offensive-minded head coach. Why couldn't a similar formula work for Trubisky? The Bears already have the running game. Trubisky's numbers through 11 starts line up closely with the ones for Goff at the same stage.
The caveat: The fact that one player overcame a rough start does not mean another player will do the same. It could be unrealistic for the Bears to find the next Sean McVay. They also do not have Todd Gurley II.
21. Peyton Manning will choose the Titans over the Browns in becoming part-owner of an NFL franchise
The reason: Both teams have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Manning in the past. Let's go with the Titans here, as they could use the boost.
The caveat: Why now?
22. Marvin Lewis will slide into a front-office role with the Bengals, clearing the way for the team to hire Hue Jackson as head coach
The reason: The Bengals are averse to change. They could move on from Lewis as coach without moving on from him entirely. Jackson is also familiar to them.
The caveat: Jackson is not yet available. He could be a tough sell as a head coach after posting a 1-30 record in Cleveland so far.
23. The NFL will amend or scrap the Rooney Rule
The reason: The rule creates cynicism around the process of interviewing minority candidates for head-coaching positions when teams plot to get around it. The NFL could substitute an annual seminar at the league meetings each spring as a form of continuing education on the subject, letting the hiring results speak for themselves before reassessing down the line.
The caveat: There could still be enough reverence for the rule to keep it around.
24. Ed Hochuli will replace Al Riveron as the NFL's officiating czar
The reason: The league needs new direction from its officiating office following a difficult year. Hochuli's background as a trial attorney shines through in his ability to communicate, an area in which Riveron is not as strong. Hochuli is also 67 years old and No. 2 in seniority among all officials, behind only fellow referee Walt Coleman. The timing could be right for such a move.
The caveat: Moving to New York could be a deal breaker for the Arizona-based Hochuli, who also could resist such a move on its face. His son, Shawn, is an official who could be a candidate for promotion to referee.
25. Drew Brees will be the next quarterback of the Redskins
The reason: New Orleans finally has the defense and running game it needs to contend, just as Brees is winding down. Instead of paying top dollar for Brees at the expense of other positions, why not trust Sean Payton's ability to coach up the offense around another signal-caller? After all, Payton went to a Super Bowl as the Giants' offensive coordinator when Kerry Collins was his QB. Brees could then replace Cousins in Washington, getting a jump on a post-football political career he has alluded to in the past.
The caveat: That's a lot of moving parts. Why dump Brees when the Saints have a great thing going and can finally support him?
26. Bill Belichick will be the New York Giants' next head coach
The reason: Prediction No. 18 had Caserio and McDaniels bailing from New England before the kingdom fell. This prediction flips the script. Belichick becomes the first to leave, allowing the Patriots to continue with Caserio and McDaniels in charge. Belichick gets a new challenge with an organization that remains fond of him from his days as an assistant. The Giants get a coach uniquely equipped to handle whatever might come his way.
The caveat: Why would Belichick leave a championship operation for a floundering one? If he really wanted change, he could have his choice of jobs after Brady retires -- whenever that day comes.
Mike Sando
ESPN INSDER
With the new year approaching, I've collected 26 NFL predictions for 2018 from league insiders, ranking them from most believable to most outlandish.
Why 26? That's how many I had collected when my deadline arrived. Some seem downright far-fetched, but is anything far-fetched in a league that saw the Los Angeles Rams transform themselves into an offensive powerhouse overnight?
We begin with Tom Brady and end with Bill Belichick, with predictions involving Ed Hochuli, Jon Gruden, Dez Bryant and even the UFC in between. I predict you'll enjoy the read.
1. Tom Brady will be even better in 2018
The reason: Welcoming back Julian Edelman from injury next season will restore the Patriots' offense to full power in 2018, as Rob Gronkowski and Brandin Cooks will remain under contract. Brady struggled against Miami when forced to play without both Edelman and Gronkowski. Give Brady one of them and he's fine. Give Brady both of them and look out, rest of NFL.
The caveat: The Patriots could lose offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to a head-coaching job, threatening the continuity that has further set apart New England from most teams. How would the Patriots compensate? They could try to bring back Brian Daboll, who left New England for Alabama after the 2016 season.
2. San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will command some Tier 1 votes in 2018 QB Tiers balloting
The reason: While I expect Garoppolo to land in the second tier overall, excitement surrounding his hot start will create enough recency bias for some in the league to err on the side of optimism. There are also voters who had Garoppolo rated among the very best quarterbacks of the 2014 draft class. A few will be ready to anoint him the next in the top tier.
The caveat: Garoppolo still has one more start to make this season. A poor showing against the Rams could affect perceptions, especially if Garoppolo suffers an injury (concerns over his durability linger).
3. Kirk Cousins will not sign an extension with the Washington Redskins
The reason: The thinking is that Cousins, slighted by the team's treatment of him dating to the Robert Griffin III days, has already ruled out a long-term deal with the Redskins. There are no outward signs he is interested in one.
The caveat: Cousins could change his mind if he doesn't see better options elsewhere.
4. Arizona Cardinals QB Carson Palmer will retire
The reason: Palmer has hard miles on his 38-year-old body. People who know him think he's strongly leaning toward retirement.
The caveat: Walking away can be tough. Palmer could feel good enough this offseason to reconsider. The injury he suffered this season was to his non-throwing arm, so there should be no injury-based limitations.
5. The Cardinals will make a huge push for a veteran QB
The reason: It's what must be done for Arizona to keep pace in an NFC West division featuring Russell Wilson, Garoppolo and Jared Goff. The Cardinals will not be selecting early enough in the 2018 draft to target a starting quarterback there. The team hasn't hesitated seeking out veteran QBs in the recent past, from Palmer to Kevin Kolb. Time to move aggressively again.
The caveat: There isn't much of one, but no final decisions have been made regarding Palmer.
6. Jon Gruden will return to coaching with Tampa Bay
The reason: The timing is finally right. Multiple teams with talented young quarterbacks who are underperforming could be in the market for head coaches, starting with the Buccaneers, who just inducted Gruden into their ring of honor amid great fanfare. That ceremony cemented Gruden's legacy in Tampa. A lot of people in the league think it's close to a done deal.
The caveat: Gruden is undefeated since leaving the NFL. He has previously resisted all temptations to walk away from what he has built at ESPN.
7. Patrick Mahomes will be the Chiefs' starting QB
The reason: Alex Smith is entering the final year of his contract, which makes this coming offseason the best time for Kansas City to trade him. Mahomes is going to be the starter in the next year or so, regardless. While Smith has been more explosive than ever as a passer this season, Tyreek Hill is a huge part of that equation.
The caveat: Moving on from Smith could go from difficult to problematic if Smith leads the team on a Super Bowl run. Offensive head coaches such as Andy Reid also appreciate all the little things a veteran quarterback brings to the table.
8. The Browns will select USC quarterback Sam Darnold with the first overall pick
The reason: The Browns must address the position aggressively after so many years of neglect/futility. Darnold projects as a lower-risk alternative to Josh Rosen among quarterbacks atop the draft.
The caveat: There's still a chance that Darnold will return for another season at USC, or that the scouting process could lead Cleveland in another direction.
9. The Rams' Aaron Donald will become the NFL's highest-paid defensive player, but not for long
The reason: Donald held out last summer and should be a priority to re-sign, but the Oakland Raiders' Khalil Mack could get even more as an outside pass-rusher.
The caveat: Mack could always get a deal done first.
10. Gary Kubiak will emerge as an offensive coordinator in 2018
The reason: Kubiak cited health reasons for stepping down as the Broncos' head coach one year ago. If the year off did him good, he could be a candidate to take on a job with less responsibility. The 49ers could be a good fit.
The caveat: Kubiak's health would seem to be the only one.
11. Gus Bradley will return to the Seattle Seahawks
The reason: Insiders expect an eventful offseason for the Seahawks, with big changes to the roster and staff. Bradley, Seattle's defensive coordinator from 2009 to 2012, is finishing a one-year deal with the Chargers. One exec predicted the team could bring back both Bradley and Ken Norton Jr., with or without current defensive coordinator Kris Richard in the picture.
The caveat: Bradley already has a job with the Chargers and is showing he can coordinate an excellent defense outside Seattle. He could re-sign with the Chargers.
12. Bruce Arians will be the next head coach making a splash in the booth
The reason: Arians isn't afraid to speak his mind now, while he's a head coach. Imagine how entertaining and insightful he'd be on TV. Arians could remain relevant and in the spotlight without all the stress. Any network hiring him might need a seven-second delay, however.
The caveat: There could be other competitors in this space, from Marvin Lewis to Jeff Fisher. It's also possible Arians could return to the Cardinals.
13. Dez Bryant will remain with the Dallas Cowboys despite a performance drop
The reason: While Bryant's production no longer justifies his $16.5 million cap figure for 2018, owner Jerry Jones loves certain players and tends to stand by them. For that reason, the Cowboys will consider staff changes more seriously than they will consider moving on from Bryant.
The caveat: The thinking could change if the Cowboys determine Bryant's decline is accelerating.
14. The Jacksonville Jaguars will part with quarterback Blake Bortles
The reason: Poor performances from Bortles have been frequent enough for the Jaguars to know he is not their future quarterback. This is a championship team with the right quarterback. Tom Coughlin will see that and act accordingly.
The caveat: There's evidence that Bortles has improved this season. The sides could work out a compromise contract, allowing Jacksonville to acquire an alternative to compete for the starting job.
15. Former UFC owners Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta will be the next owners of the Carolina Panthers
The reason: The Fertitta brothers are billionaire football lovers with the vision, money and marketing skills the NFL could use; a cousin, Tilman Fertitta, is the new owner of the NBA's Houston Rockets. They are thought to be in contact with the league behind the scenes, conveying their interest in purchasing a team.
The caveat: There will be other suitors, and it's tough to know at this early stage what conditions current owner Jerry Richardson might put in place regarding a sale. Relocation is another consideration here, as the Panthers are not committed to the city beyond the 2018 season.
16. We'll hear much more about the NFL starting a developmental league
The reason: A developmental league could ward off attempts from upstart competitors while helping the NFL develop alliances with an expanding array of digital operators, even if those operators aren't associated with the primary product. The league could also address concerns over quality of play while providing a place to develop coaches, executives and officials.
The caveat: Such a move could require vision. It also could carry upfront costs.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will retire
The reason: Roethlisberger talked about retirement last offseason, revealing a mindset much different from the mindsets that continue to drive Brady and Drew Brees well past their 35th birthdays. This prediction will feel additionally plausible if the Steelers win it all this season.
The caveat: Roethlisberger is scheduled to earn $17 million next season. Most people don't walk away from huge sums of cash.
18. Nick Caserio and Josh McDaniels will begin a great exodus from New England before the kingdom crashes
The reason: It could be better to leave one year early instead of one year late, especially if Caserio and McDaniels see great opportunities for 2018. The Giants could already provide such an opportunity. So could Tampa, Chicago and others.
The caveat: Brady could be playing well enough despite his age to convince Caserio and McDaniels to stick around for another championship or two.
19. The Cleveland Browns will not finish last in the AFC North
The reason: New general manager John Dorsey will dramatically upgrade the quarterback position one way (the draft) or another (veteran market) and probably both. There's enough uncertainty in the rest of the division for Cleveland to rise.
The caveat: Every team in the division has more talent than the Browns have, and the losing culture could be tough to break overnight.
20. Chicago Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky will become the next Jared Goff
The reason: Goff survived a rough rookie season to see his career take off with improved weaponry and the right offensive-minded head coach. Why couldn't a similar formula work for Trubisky? The Bears already have the running game. Trubisky's numbers through 11 starts line up closely with the ones for Goff at the same stage.
The caveat: The fact that one player overcame a rough start does not mean another player will do the same. It could be unrealistic for the Bears to find the next Sean McVay. They also do not have Todd Gurley II.
21. Peyton Manning will choose the Titans over the Browns in becoming part-owner of an NFL franchise
The reason: Both teams have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Manning in the past. Let's go with the Titans here, as they could use the boost.
The caveat: Why now?
22. Marvin Lewis will slide into a front-office role with the Bengals, clearing the way for the team to hire Hue Jackson as head coach
The reason: The Bengals are averse to change. They could move on from Lewis as coach without moving on from him entirely. Jackson is also familiar to them.
The caveat: Jackson is not yet available. He could be a tough sell as a head coach after posting a 1-30 record in Cleveland so far.
23. The NFL will amend or scrap the Rooney Rule
The reason: The rule creates cynicism around the process of interviewing minority candidates for head-coaching positions when teams plot to get around it. The NFL could substitute an annual seminar at the league meetings each spring as a form of continuing education on the subject, letting the hiring results speak for themselves before reassessing down the line.
The caveat: There could still be enough reverence for the rule to keep it around.
24. Ed Hochuli will replace Al Riveron as the NFL's officiating czar
The reason: The league needs new direction from its officiating office following a difficult year. Hochuli's background as a trial attorney shines through in his ability to communicate, an area in which Riveron is not as strong. Hochuli is also 67 years old and No. 2 in seniority among all officials, behind only fellow referee Walt Coleman. The timing could be right for such a move.
The caveat: Moving to New York could be a deal breaker for the Arizona-based Hochuli, who also could resist such a move on its face. His son, Shawn, is an official who could be a candidate for promotion to referee.
25. Drew Brees will be the next quarterback of the Redskins
The reason: New Orleans finally has the defense and running game it needs to contend, just as Brees is winding down. Instead of paying top dollar for Brees at the expense of other positions, why not trust Sean Payton's ability to coach up the offense around another signal-caller? After all, Payton went to a Super Bowl as the Giants' offensive coordinator when Kerry Collins was his QB. Brees could then replace Cousins in Washington, getting a jump on a post-football political career he has alluded to in the past.
The caveat: That's a lot of moving parts. Why dump Brees when the Saints have a great thing going and can finally support him?
26. Bill Belichick will be the New York Giants' next head coach
The reason: Prediction No. 18 had Caserio and McDaniels bailing from New England before the kingdom fell. This prediction flips the script. Belichick becomes the first to leave, allowing the Patriots to continue with Caserio and McDaniels in charge. Belichick gets a new challenge with an organization that remains fond of him from his days as an assistant. The Giants get a coach uniquely equipped to handle whatever might come his way.
The caveat: Why would Belichick leave a championship operation for a floundering one? If he really wanted change, he could have his choice of jobs after Brady retires -- whenever that day comes.
