I notice some scammers telling people to buy half points and I wanted to warn anyone who might be taking their advice. Making the Vig go from -110 to -120 or higher like -135 is a horrible move. One guy I'll call BL is well known and likes to tell his paying customers all the time to buy half points. This move is loved by the bookie. Very seldom does the half point come into play. Usually you will easy cover or easy lose. Ive read maybe 1-8 to 1-10 does the buying a half point actually save you. So what happens to all those other games were you paid extra vig to buy a half point? Compared to the one game that it may have caused you to push, you lost your ass on buying the half point that's what happened! Its a foolish thing to do and that's exactly why your bookie offers it in the first place. In this article: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/64441086/nfl-statistical-analysis-average-nfl-game they sum it up nice. The NFL average point differential is 11.2 points with the median being 8 points. 48% of all NFL games finish as 2 score games, 24% of games finish as three score games. Also Bobby Smiths book How to beat the pro football pointspread, he mentions on pg.54 the median margin of the final score vs the point-spread being 8.5 points for NFL, 10 points CFB, 7.5 NBA, 6.5 CBB, stats from 1993-2007. Just look into your own history and see for yourself how stupid buying a half point over the long haul really is. All the extra vig you paid on the lost wagers adds up over the years. Don't listen when some so called "expert" tells you to buy a half point. That person is in cooperation with the books we are all trying to beat.
Yes, this is true. If buying points was a winning strategy long-term books would charge more for it.
I still do it at times on key numbers. Touts love to say buy points to help their records (or pick moneylines).
But if you make (for sake of argument) 75 $100 bets, how many will be impacted by the half point? 1? Maybe you won from buying down to 6.5 and it costs you -120) or so. So you are up 100. But if you lay -120 1 or 2 times a week over the course of a season, you still are lucky to break even. If the half point never factors in, you probably lose a couple units a season just on buying points.
I will read your study. This is a rule I know, but don't always follow. It is hard to ever lay 3.5 when you can get 3 at (-120). Often when this happens I try to find an angle on Team Total.
But if you bet all season it is probably a losing proposition.
I still do it at times on key numbers. Touts love to say buy points to help their records (or pick moneylines).
But if you make (for sake of argument) 75 $100 bets, how many will be impacted by the half point? 1? Maybe you won from buying down to 6.5 and it costs you -120) or so. So you are up 100. But if you lay -120 1 or 2 times a week over the course of a season, you still are lucky to break even. If the half point never factors in, you probably lose a couple units a season just on buying points.
I will read your study. This is a rule I know, but don't always follow. It is hard to ever lay 3.5 when you can get 3 at (-120). Often when this happens I try to find an angle on Team Total.
But if you bet all season it is probably a losing proposition.
