Best bets for Georgia-Oklahoma
CFB VEGAN EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis and their best bets for New Year's Day's Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual, a College Football Playoff semifinal between the Georgia Bulldogs and Oklahoma Sooners.
The game will be on Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN) from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
Note: Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday, Dec. 29.
Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-2, 60) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners
PickCenter: 56 percent on Oklahoma
Steele: This one will be a battle of offense against defense. Oklahoma has one of the nation's best offensive lines, a deep set of running backs, a John Mackey Award-winning tight end in Mark Andrews, dangerous wide receivers and Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Despite facing nine bowl teams, including Ohio State, the Sooners averaged 199 yards per game more than what their opponents allowed on average. Meanwhile, Georgia has my No. 4-rated defense, led by SEC Defensive Player of the Year Roquan Smith. The Bulldogs' defense held foes to 158 yards below their season averages. Georgia also has my No. 10-rated special teams, while Oklahoma checks in at just No. 79. I normally side with the team that has the stronger defense and special teams, but Oklahoma has taken on the tougher schedule, and the majority of Georgia's foes had below-average passing attacks. Well, the Dawgs now face an elite quarterback.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Harris: Sure, Mayfield is the face of the unit, but what makes this an offense for the ages is the special connection he has with his playcaller-turned-head coach and the fact that the Sooners have surrounded him with all-star players at every position. The young receivers have exceeded all expectations, new backs have stepped in to replace the record-setting duo that last year's team lost and the offensive line is arguably the best in school history. Last but definitely not least, Andrews and do-it-all fullback Dimitri Flowers provide the versatility and physical presence that make an attack with Air Raid roots just as effective in short yardage, red zone and four-minute as it is downfield. There's an old coaching adage that "there are five offensive linemen, and the playcaller's job is to make all of the other six players dangerous." Lincoln Riley has done a masterful job of that, and we doubt any of the Sooners' fellow playoff entrants can hold this crew under 30 points the way Texas did.
Georgia's always-fresh three-headed tailback monster must be respected, and that makes the Bulldogs' play-action game deadly. The Dawgs run the ball relentlessly and make their share of big plays. This group wears down opponents and will be hard to hold all game. Neither defensive line can control this game, and that's got us thinking that enough haymakers will be exchanged to send this over the total.
Pick: Over 60
Fallica: I've finally settled on Georgia in the Rose Bowl. We've seen many examples in the BCS era of a high-powered offense getting shut down by a top-10 defense in a title game, and it's been Oklahoma a few of those times (vs. LSU, USC and Florida). The Sooners have faced some of the weakest defenses out there (just one top-25 opponent in yards per play allowed, and five of the worst 27), and Georgia is sixth nationally in YPP allowed. One never wants to overreact to performances, but I worry a little bit that West Virginia couldn't get a first down against Utah but that same offense ran the ball at a really good clip on the Sooners. Now OU faces a better, deeper running attack, with a better quarterback and a far superior defense. Expect Georgia to minimize possessions, allowing some big plays but getting just enough stops to win the Rose Bowl and set up a game in its home state for the national title.
ATS Pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 31, Oklahoma 28
Coughlin: Whenever there is a matchup between a great offense and a great defense, I always side with the offense. That's simply because I played on the offensive side of the football. But I'm not doing that this time. Oklahoma makes a living off defenses that make mistakes, whether its blitzing on the wrong down or blown coverage or just gambling with inferior corners against the Sooners' great offensive playmakers. I think Georgia is going to focus on keeping everything in front of it and will try not to give up enormous plays through the air.
On the other side of the ball, I know the Sooners have been better since the second half of the Oklahoma State game, but I think their lack of size on the back end of their defense will not be able to hold up physically. They will be asked time after time to come up and tackle the Dawgs' stable of running backs. I think the boys from Athens will win and cover.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 31, Oklahoma 27
CFB VEGAN EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis and their best bets for New Year's Day's Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual, a College Football Playoff semifinal between the Georgia Bulldogs and Oklahoma Sooners.
The game will be on Jan. 1 at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN) from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.
Note: Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday, Dec. 29.
Rose Bowl presented by Northwestern Mutual
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-2, 60) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners
PickCenter: 56 percent on Oklahoma
Steele: This one will be a battle of offense against defense. Oklahoma has one of the nation's best offensive lines, a deep set of running backs, a John Mackey Award-winning tight end in Mark Andrews, dangerous wide receivers and Heisman winner Baker Mayfield. Despite facing nine bowl teams, including Ohio State, the Sooners averaged 199 yards per game more than what their opponents allowed on average. Meanwhile, Georgia has my No. 4-rated defense, led by SEC Defensive Player of the Year Roquan Smith. The Bulldogs' defense held foes to 158 yards below their season averages. Georgia also has my No. 10-rated special teams, while Oklahoma checks in at just No. 79. I normally side with the team that has the stronger defense and special teams, but Oklahoma has taken on the tougher schedule, and the majority of Georgia's foes had below-average passing attacks. Well, the Dawgs now face an elite quarterback.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Harris: Sure, Mayfield is the face of the unit, but what makes this an offense for the ages is the special connection he has with his playcaller-turned-head coach and the fact that the Sooners have surrounded him with all-star players at every position. The young receivers have exceeded all expectations, new backs have stepped in to replace the record-setting duo that last year's team lost and the offensive line is arguably the best in school history. Last but definitely not least, Andrews and do-it-all fullback Dimitri Flowers provide the versatility and physical presence that make an attack with Air Raid roots just as effective in short yardage, red zone and four-minute as it is downfield. There's an old coaching adage that "there are five offensive linemen, and the playcaller's job is to make all of the other six players dangerous." Lincoln Riley has done a masterful job of that, and we doubt any of the Sooners' fellow playoff entrants can hold this crew under 30 points the way Texas did.
Georgia's always-fresh three-headed tailback monster must be respected, and that makes the Bulldogs' play-action game deadly. The Dawgs run the ball relentlessly and make their share of big plays. This group wears down opponents and will be hard to hold all game. Neither defensive line can control this game, and that's got us thinking that enough haymakers will be exchanged to send this over the total.
Pick: Over 60
Fallica: I've finally settled on Georgia in the Rose Bowl. We've seen many examples in the BCS era of a high-powered offense getting shut down by a top-10 defense in a title game, and it's been Oklahoma a few of those times (vs. LSU, USC and Florida). The Sooners have faced some of the weakest defenses out there (just one top-25 opponent in yards per play allowed, and five of the worst 27), and Georgia is sixth nationally in YPP allowed. One never wants to overreact to performances, but I worry a little bit that West Virginia couldn't get a first down against Utah but that same offense ran the ball at a really good clip on the Sooners. Now OU faces a better, deeper running attack, with a better quarterback and a far superior defense. Expect Georgia to minimize possessions, allowing some big plays but getting just enough stops to win the Rose Bowl and set up a game in its home state for the national title.
ATS Pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 31, Oklahoma 28
Coughlin: Whenever there is a matchup between a great offense and a great defense, I always side with the offense. That's simply because I played on the offensive side of the football. But I'm not doing that this time. Oklahoma makes a living off defenses that make mistakes, whether its blitzing on the wrong down or blown coverage or just gambling with inferior corners against the Sooners' great offensive playmakers. I think Georgia is going to focus on keeping everything in front of it and will try not to give up enormous plays through the air.
On the other side of the ball, I know the Sooners have been better since the second half of the Oklahoma State game, but I think their lack of size on the back end of their defense will not be able to hold up physically. They will be asked time after time to come up and tackle the Dawgs' stable of running backs. I think the boys from Athens will win and cover.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 31, Oklahoma 27
