Best bets for Alabama-Clemson

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Best bets for Alabama-Clemson
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
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ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis and their best bets for New Year's Day's Allstate Sugar Bowl, a College Football Playoff semifinal between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the defending national champion Clemson Tigers.

The rematch of last year's national championship game will be on Jan. 1 at 8:45 p.m. ET (ESPN) from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

Note: Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday, Dec. 29.

Allstate Sugar Bowl



No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-3, 47) vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers

PickCenter: 53 percent on Clemson

Steele: Clemson deserves to be the No. 1 team in the country. It has the nation's best defensive line, and the defense has held foes to 138 yards per game below their season averages. Clemson has a solid rush attack, and Kelly Bryant is completing 67 percent of his passes with a tidy 13-6 ratio. Clemson is 8-4-1 against the spread, and Dabo Swinney is 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread in his past 10 postseason games. Clemson beat five ranked foes, while Alabama beat just three. Despite that, I feel the Tide crash in and win. Alabama's defense was beat up down the stretch, particularly the linebacker corps. The Tide not only get back most of those 'backers who missed the end of the season but also return Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis, both of whom were injured in the opener. Alabama has a great offensive line, along with my No. 1 set of running backs in the country, who averaged 6.0 yards per carry. Calvin Ridley is a top NFL prospect, and Jalen Hurts should be highly motivated after last year's poor title game. His quarterback rating is 19 points higher than Bryant's.

I give Alabama the edge on offense along with a slight edge on defense. The Tide have my No. 24-rated special teams against the Tigers' No. 99 unit, so I feel Alabama is the more talented team. Alabama feels like the 'dog as it barely made it into the playoffs. In the only two games Alabama has been a 'dog since 2009, the Tide won by 19 and 28 points. Alabama rarely loses and is playing with legitimate revenge. Bama led by 10 in the fourth quarter last year, but the brilliant Deshaun Watson led a comeback. Bryant is good, but he is not Watson, who entered the title game with 80 career touchdown passes (Bryant has 14) and starred in the NFL this year. Alabama is off a loss, and I love to play premier teams off a loss. Take advantage of Bama being in a rare situation.

ATS pick: Alabama

Harris: One way Alabama has rendered Clemson ordinary the past two meetings? The Tigers haven't gotten any more production out of their tailback game than anybody else does against the Tide. Watson carried the ball more than all other players combined in both games, and Clemson's rushing production in those matchups is less than 3 yards per carry, with Watson's 73 yards in 2015 leading all Clemson rushers in the two-game series. The Tigers were in position to cover both games with last-second Hunter Renfrow catches because Watson threw for more than 400 yards both times. Neither came as a total shock -- in both seasons, the Bama game was the fifth 350-yard passing day for Watson -- but it would be if Bryant repeats the feat this year. This year's offense is not as explosive in the passing game as the Watson-led attacks, and Bryant enters this tilt with just one game with more than 272 passing yards.

Clemson will rush the ball like 2015 and 2016, which is to say, not much. But it won't be able to replicate the success through the air, and that's going to make it hard to put much on the scoreboard against a Tide defense that will be much healthier than it was in November.

Alabama's offense is loaded at every position group, but the last time it took the field, it looked broken. The NFL stylings of playcaller Brian Daboll are still a liability at this point, and even at 39 points per game, this unit has been a disappointment. It also has been at its worst down the stretch. Clemson's defensive front is the best unit on the field, and, at this stage, the one thing we're most sure of about the semifinal games is that Bama-Clemson III won't be a high-scoring affair like the first two editions.

Pick: Under 47

Fallica: Swinney's record in bowl games as an underdog has been well-documented, and I see no need to try to overthink this pick. Although Hurts turned the ball over just twice this year versus Power 5 teams, his other numbers -- sack percentage, total YPG, 20-yard plays, TD responsibility -- are all down considerably. Given Clemson's ability to stop the run, Hurts is going to have to make some plays with his arm, but I don't know whether Bama's offensive line or wide receivers (other than Ridley) will allow Hurts to get it done. Alabama is a healthier team than it was in the loss to Auburn, and most will lean on the "Nick Saban with revenge" and "Alabama here for redemption" angles for picking the game, but I'll call for the Tigers to make a third straight trip to the national title game. I see them as the better team. For what it's worth, Alabama was 1-6 ATS versus bowl teams this season, although many of those came in the role of big favorite.

ATS Pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 28, Alabama 24

Coughlin: There is so much to be excited for in this matchup, but the most-anticipated aspect of this game is the Alabama offense vs. the Clemson defense. We know the Tigers' defense is an elite unit, leading the country in sacks with 44, but I do believe the Tide have the goods to neutralize the talent and scheme of Brent Venable's defense with speed and versatility at wide receiver and running back. This isn't the same Alabama offensive line that mashed its way to a national title over Notre Dame in 2012 (that line included the likes of Chance Warmack, D.J. Fluker and Cyrus Kouandjio), but I think it has enough talent to help Bama run the ball effectively. I'm not really confident in the Clemson offense's ability to control the game or move the chains consistently, so I am picking the Tide to win and cover in what will be a very tight game.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 24, Clemson 19
 

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