Best bets on Week 17 NFL games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's the last week of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games. Pay attention to which teams are resting players in preparation for the playoffs and which teams are looking to play spoiler.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Total: 40.5
Phil Steele's take: The Bengals played their final game for Marvin Lewis at home last week and sent him out a winner, upsetting the Lions. The last time they played an all-effort home game was on a Monday night when they almost upset the Steelers. The next week, they were destroyed by the Bears 33-7. The Bengals' incentive here is to knock division rival Baltimore out of the playoffs. These two played in the opener, and Baltimore had only a 47 yardage edge but was plus-four in turnovers in a 20-0 road win. The Ravens will treat this like a postseason game, and the Bengals might have little left after last week's upset. That has me leaning with the Ravens, even though Baltimore is 1-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2011.
ATS pick: Lean on Baltimore
Sharp: While Cincinnati was eliminated from the playoffs long ago and this will be Marvin Lewis' last game, Baltimore is currently the AFC fifth seed and clinches a playoff berth with a win. The Bengals run defense ranks 23rd overall and 29th in rushing success rate allowed, and will be without LB Vontaze Burfict. Cincinnati rallied for its first win in a month last week to beat the Lions but may have cashed out with that win. The Ravens should win and I don't know that the Bengals' pass offense is explosive enough to keep up.
Lean: Ravens
Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 15
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Total: 43
Phil Steele's take: Jim Caldwell is rumored to be on his way out, while the Lions were eliminated from postseason contention with a Week 16 loss. Detroit rolled over a Brett Hundley-led Packers team in Green Bay this year 30-17, even allowing a touchdown on the final play. Detroit is trying to earn its first series sweep of Green Bay in 26 years. In the Packers' past three road games with Hundley as the starter, they have beaten Chicago and Cleveland and lost only to the Steelers by three, so I will take the points in this meaningless game.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Sharp: With the Lions' playoff elimination last weekend and rumors circulating about head coach Jim Caldwell, there is a lot of uncertainty in Detroit. Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy finds himself in uncharted territory, with the option of being able to test out younger players. After playing three straight games against top-six run defenses, Green Bay should be able to run on the 28th-ranked Lions defense. Detroit should be able to pass the ball on the Packers' poor pass defense, and the Lions claim they will play all of their starters. After being shut out, I presume the Packers give a better effort offensively, but they will be without Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams.
Lean: Packers
Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 27, Green Bay 22
ATS pick: Green Bay and the over
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
Total: 42.5
Phil Steele's take: The Bills are still alive for the playoffs but need to win and have both the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Chargers lose to get in. The game was moved to 4:25 p.m. ET, so all three games are going on at the same time. Just two weeks ago, Buffalo led Miami 24-6 at home in the eventual eight-point victory. Last week, Buffalo led 16-13 in the third quarter but lost by 21 to the mighty New England Patriots. The Dolphins did win their past two home games, over Denver and New England, and are plus-72 yards per game in Miami. The Bills' only two losses the past five weeks have come to New England. The Patriots are at the top of the NFL and Miami is at the bottom, and I look for a repeat performance from Buffalo.
ATS pick: Lean on Buffalo
Sharp: Buffalo is currently out of the playoffs but can earn a wild card in a few scenarios. The Bills played excellently for most of the game against the Patriots but still were creamed on the scoreboard. If Kenyan Drake gets the bulk of carries, he should have no problem producing against this porous, 30th-ranked Bills run defense. The Dolphins should have produced better on the scoreboard in their last meeting but were limited by costly turnovers in the red zone.
Lean: Dolphins
Clay:
Prediction: Miami 22, Buffalo 19
ATS pick: Miami and the under
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Total: 45
Phil Steele's take: The Panthers could still win the division but would need to win here and have the Saints lose to Tampa Bay. If that happens and Minnesota loses to Chicago, the Panthers would net the No. 2 seed and a bye week. If the Saints win, the Panthers will be the No. 5 seed regardless of this outcome. The Falcons made the Super Bowl last year, and despite an uneven season, they just need a win here to get back into the playoffs (they would also get in with a Seattle loss). Carolina was fortunate to score a late touchdown and get past Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers had a 392-255 yardage edge last week. The Panthers are the stronger team, and they are getting over a field goal advantage, which is attractive. The only negative is that if the Panthers find out the Saints are up big, they might protect some of their key players at the end.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Sharp: Carolina has clinched a playoff berth and can be anywhere between the 2- and the 5-seed, while Atlanta can earn a trip to the playoffs with a win over Carolina. This game is far more important to the Falcons, but Carolina should keep playing tough so long as they don't scoreboard-watch and see the Saints crushing the Buccaneers. The Panthers' pass defense is trending extremely poorly, particularly in explosive passing, which is something the Falcons should look to exploit early and often. Carolina has been much better running the ball of late, and the Falcons' run defense is the easiest they've faced since Week 5 against the Lions.
ATS pick: Panthers
Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 23, Carolina 21
ATS pick: Carolina and the under
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 50
Phil Steele's take: The Saints led Atlanta 23-6 last week in a 10-point win and now just need a win here to wrap up the NFC South title and either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. They can also win the NFC South if Carolina loses to Atlanta. With a loss and a Carolina win, the Saints would be on the road next week, making this matchup important. Tampa Bay is just 4-11 but is playing strong down the stretch, as it has lost to three playoff contenders in Detroit, Atlanta and Carolina by just three points each over the past three weeks. Tampa Bay has been giving great effort despite being banged up, and it remains a bit depleted.
The good thing about backing New Orleans is that the Saints tend to win their games by good margins. The spread here is 6.5, and the Saints have won 10 of their past 11 games by eight points or more, including nine by double digits. Tampa Bay is just 9-22 ATS since 2009 as a home underdog. The Saints had a 407-200 yardage edge when these two played in November and are one of my key selections for Week 17.
ATS pick: New Orleans
Sharp: New Orleans has clinched a playoff berth and can win the NFC South with a victory over the Bucs, so the Saints have tremendous motivation in this game. Eliminated long ago, the Buccaneers are actually gutting out performances, not losing by a TD in any of their last four games. Tampa Bay will look to take advantage of a Saints defense that is trending poorly in rushing and explosive passing defense. With Saints No. 1 WR Michael Thomas nursing a hamstring injury, expect the Saints to lean on the run game early and often.
ATS pick: Buccaneers
Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Tampa Bay 21
ATS pick: New Orleans and the under
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Total: 41.5
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars learned before kickoff last week that they had locked up the AFC South title, and the defense took the week off, allowing 44 points. Tennessee benefited from the Rams missing a field goal and an extra point, as well as getting a 4-yard fumble return touchdown to lead 10-6. Tennessee won this matchup 37-16 back in Week 2, but Jacksonville is clearly the superior team. If this game mattered to both teams, I would take the Jaguars to win by at least a touchdown, but since they are locked into the No. 3 seed and could be playing the Titans again next week, they might rest players here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Jacksonville has won the AFC South and is locked into the No. 3 seed and may rest players but plans to play everyone. The Jaguars likely don't want to have the 44-point performance to the 49ers last week leaving a bad taste in their mouth, but at the same time, they very well may meet the Titans next week in the wild-card round. Meanwhile, the Titans need to win this game to lock up a spot in the playoffs.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 23, Tennessee 19
ATS pick: Jacksonville
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-15)
Total: 43
Phil Steele's take: I would think that avoiding a return trip to Pittsburgh would be a high priority for Bill Belichick, making a win here important. The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS versus the Patriots and almost pulled the upset at home this year with a touchdown taken off the board after a controversial review in a seven-point loss. The Patriots are on an 8-1 ATS run and get to take on backup quarterback Bryce Petty, who has hit just 34 of 67 passes for 149 yards per game with a 1-to-3 ratio the past two weeks. The Jets forget to pack their offense when they travel, as they average 375 yards per game at home and just 234 on the road. The Patriots wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a solid win.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Sharp: New England is currently the AFC's top seed and can clinch home-field advantage with a win. The Jets are still playing out the string extremely hard, but Bryce Petty has shown limited offensive ability, completing just 47 percent of his passes as a starter. It's likely too many points and rather than lean Jets, it really depends how big the Patriots are up and how long they play their starters.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: New England 32, New York Jets 15
ATS pick: New England and the over
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5)
Total: 40
Phil Steele's take: The Colts are the worst team in the NFL statistically, being outgained by 91 yards per game. They have also been the worst team in the league over the past four weeks, at minus-122 yards per game. While the Texans are stronger in 2017, that is because they had Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt early in the season. Over the past four weeks, Houston is minus-112 yards per game.
Houston had one last shot to shine Monday night versus Pittsburgh but lost 34-6 and now travels on a short holiday week. The Texans were already down to their third- and fourth-string quarterbacks last week in a contest in which both left with potential concussions. The Colts, meanwhile, had the ball deep in Baltimore territory late last week on the road trailing by just a touchdown and almost upset Pittsburgh and Tennessee in recent home games. I know the Colts' only wins have been by three, three and six points this year, but this could be their spot to shine.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis
Rynning: This Colts offense is on the verge of finally producing points. The Colts have played capable defensive teams of late, including the Broncos and Jaguars and the Ravens in brutal weather in Week 16. The decimated Texans defense is a firm step-down in class. It's not easy to see the light at the end of the tunnel for this Texans offense with T.J. Yates under center. Still, he's faced two top-notch defensive teams the last two weeks in the Steelers and Jaguars. He'll likely be without DeAndre Hopkins in this one but should have Will Fuller to make plays.
Pick: Over
Sharp: In a meaningless game for both teams, even if both play their starters and give full effort, it could be a dud. Even against the weaker defenses of the Titans and Texans in the second half of the season, the Colts were unable to top 20 points. They are a run-first team going up against a top-10 run defense of the Texans. The Texans will be starting T.J. Yates and will be without DeAndre Hopkins.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Indianapolis 21, Houston 19
ATS pick: Houston
Washington Redskins (-3) at New York Giants
Total: 39.5
Phil Steele's take: This could be Eli Manning's last game as quarterback of the New York Giants. In their last home game, they took Philadelphia to the wire and even had a 504-341 yardage edge. This is just the third time in the past 12 years that the Redskins have been an away favorite in a divisional game, and they lost earlier this year at a depleted Dallas 38-14. The Redskins' offense averaged just 233 yards the previous three games before putting up 386 yards on the Broncos' excellent defense. Washington can actually get to 8-8 with a win here, while the Giants can wrap up the No. 2 spot in the draft with a loss. Last week's results would have you thinking Washington in an easy victory, but all season long, these teams have zigged when you thought they would zag, and that has me leaning with the home 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on the New York Giants
Rynning: Look for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to put plenty of points on the scoreboard against a reduced Giants secondary now without stalwart Landon Collins (and a suspended Eli Apple). This is still a capable passing unit that's faced rock-solid defensive backfields the last three weeks in the Broncos, Cardinals and Chargers. Yes, the Giants are woeful, but that's on both sides of the football. Keep in mind the Giants put up 504 yards of offense two weeks ago against a good Eagles defense. After playing slower throughout much of the year, they've picked up the pace the last two weeks.
ATS pick: Over and lean Redskins
Sharp: With both teams eliminated, this game is a total wild card. The Redskins' run defense is the second worst in the NFL, which should be welcomed by the Giants after facing two of the best in the Eagles and Cardinals. Question marks surround key NYG TE Evan Engram and WR Sterling Shepard and their availability.
Lean: Redskins
Clay:
Prediction: Washington 21, New York Giants 20
ATS pick: New York Giants and the over
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11.5)
Total: 39
Phil Steele's take: Minnesota wraps up the No. 2 seed and a bye if it wins this game or gets some help from either the Buccaneers or Falcons. This is an early game, and the other two are played late, so a win is the priority. The Vikings look like the best team in the NFC, as they have the best defense in the NFL and a top-10 offense. Minnesota's plus-78 yards per game is the second best in the NFL. Last week's shutout win was actually the Vikings' first since 1993, and they are on a 9-1 ATS run. Minnesota has held foes to just 255 yards per game and 12.8 points per game at home, while the Bears come in with the No. 30 offense in the NFL at just 293 yards per game. Home is the theme here, as the Vikings are trying to become the first team to ever host a Super Bowl, and right now I give them a great shot at it.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Sharp: Minnesota can clinch a first-round bye with a win, and it's hard not to envision a game effort, particularly in the first half. The Bears were able to run on the Browns' tough run defense, but that unit has trended very poorly of late, whereas Minnesota's run defense is top five. Mitchell Trubisky will be under siege, and the Vikings are the first top-half pass defense he's faced since a 31-3 drubbing at the hands of the Eagles in Week 12.
Lean: Vikings
Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Chicago 12
ATS pick: Minnesota and the under
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 39
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles clinched home field throughout the playoffs with last week's lackluster win over Oakland. The Eagles figure to rest some players, but the offense produced only 216 yards against a weak Raiders defense, so they could feel the need to get Nick Foles more in gear before that first playoff game in two weeks. Dallas had a dominating 283-136 yardage edge versus Seattle last week but shot itself in the foot numerous times and was eliminated from the playoffs. Last year, the Cowboys had a playoff seed clinched and lost at home to the non-playoff Eagles 27-13, with Philadelphia having a 346-195 yardage edge. Ezekiel Elliott shook off the rust last week, and Dallas is playing with legitimate revenge after being embarrassed at home 37-9 in the first matchup of these divisional rivals.
ATS pick: Lean on Dallas
Sharp: The Eagles have clinched the No. 1 seed and will rest starters. The Cowboys' Jerry Jones wants to see younger players get some action, while Jason Garrett said that he plans to play everyone who is healthy. Too many questions on playing time here.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 24, Philadelphia 22
ATS pick: Philadelphia and the over
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-8)
Total: 42
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers need a win here and a Tennessee loss to make the playoffs. The Chargers had a 379-295 yardage edge at New York last week against the Jets. Oakland, meanwhile, had a 274-216 yardage edge, with the Eagles taking a 13-10 lead on a field goal with 22 seconds left following a late interception. Philadelphia added a 23-yard fumble return touchdown on a lateral play for a misleading nine-point win. When these two met back in October, it was Derek Carr's first game back from injury and the Chargers won on the road 17-16, holding him to 165 yards passing. Oakland could very well have the crowd edge, with plenty of Raiders fans residing in Los Angeles.
The Chargers are No. 7 in the NFL at plus-41 yards per game, while Oakland is minus-17 yards per game. Oakland's defense has shown a lot of improvement, as it has allowed just 288 yards per game over the past five. Oakland could have beaten both Dallas and Philadelphia the past two weeks, and with the spread inflated for playoff need, I will lean with the Raiders.
ATS pick: Lean on Oakland
Sharp: The Chargers need to win and have the Jaguars beat the Titans and possibly the Ravens beat the Bengals. It's a messy scenario, but they can control only their game against the Raiders. Last week, the Chargers' newly porous run defense gave up 145 rushing yards to Bilal Powell on just 19 carries, which should give hope to the Raiders' rushing offense. While Derek Carr has regressed tremendously, the Raiders' defense has done enough to keep their games competitive since their drubbing by the Patriots in Mexico.
ATS pick: Raiders
Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 24, Oakland 16
Pick: Under
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Total: 38.5
Phil Steele's take: Seattle is still alive for the playoffs but needs a win here and an Atlanta loss. Seattle has a weak offensive line, its current top running back Mike Davis has just 192 rushing yards on the year (3.3 yards per carry), and the pass game has produced 71 and 60 yards the past two weeks. Seattle had 149 total yards versus the Rams and beat the Cowboys last week despite being outgained 283-136. Arizona is a different team at home at plus-41 yards per game and 4-0-1 ATS over its past five but is 1-6 ATS on the road this year and minus-34 yards per game.
Back in November, Arizona led Seattle 15-7 with a 190-90 yardage edge at the half but did trail 22-10, getting a touchdown with 20 seconds left to lose by six. Seattle is overpriced at -9.5 for this game, but Arizona backup quarterback Drew Stanton has completed just 48.4 percent this year.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Sharp: Seattle is currently out of the playoffs, but if the Seahawks win and the Falcons lose, Seattle will be the No. 6 seed. As such, there is tremendous motivation for the Seahawks. Seattle has faced a grueling schedule of run offenses and finally gets to face a team that can't run the football, ranking 32nd in the league. Arizona will have to turn to the pass, and that means more Drew Stanton, which is never a good thing.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 22, Arizona 15
ATS pick: Arizona and the under
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Total: 38
Phil Steele's take: Last week, Denver had a 215-139 yardage edge at the half against the Redskins but trailed 10-3, which is the story of their season. The Broncos' defense allowed 247 yards in the second half, and the team trailed 27-3 before a garbage touchdown with 1:13 left. Kansas City is locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC and will rest a good portion of its starters with a home playoff game on deck. Patrick Mahomes makes his first NFL start in his first-ever action in Mile High against Denver's No. 2-rated defense. Denver is actually plus-39 yards per game this year, which is eighth best in the NFL, while Kansas City is only plus-eight and No. 13. With this figuring to be Denver's starters at home versus the Chiefs' backups, I'll make the Broncos an ATS selection in this one.
ATS pick: Denver
Sharp: Kansas City has clinched the AFC West and is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Chiefs are playing backups, but the questions remain: how many backups and how long do their other starters play? Denver is starting Paxton Lynch, and this is a game that could go any number of ways based on quarterback play.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Denver 20, Kansas City 17
ATS pick: Kansas City and the under
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Total: 43.5
Phil Steele's take: The Rams lost outstanding kicker Greg Zuerlein prior to last week's matchup against Tennessee, which would prove costly as far as the spread was concerned with backup Sam Ficken missing an extra point and a 36-yard field goal in the 27-23 victory (the Rams were a six-point favorite). Jimmy Garoppolo improved to 6-0 as a starter as San Francisco took advantage of a Jacksonville team that wrapped up its division title when Tennessee lost earlier. The Rams have wrapped up their own division title and will host a playoff game next week regardless of this outcome (expected to rest starters). San Francisco is statistically the third-best team in the NFL the past four weeks at plus-83 yards per game. The 49ers figure to be much more interested in keeping the momentum going, while the Rams are looking to get out of this matchup unscathed.
ATS pick: Lean on San Francisco
Rynning: Handicapping the final week of the NFL regular season is always an interesting study. There are a few games in which one can throw out all the numbers throughout the campaign. This matchup will serve as one of those opportunities, although this 49ers team continues to make waves down the stretch. They have all the momentum with Jimmy Garoppolo under center as they build to actually challenge the Rams in 2018. The bottom line is that this 49ers team wants to continue to play well and win. That's not the case for this Rams team with an eye toward the playoffs. This will serve more as a preseason game for them with crucial starters like Jared Goff and Todd Gurley not suiting up.
ATS pick: 49ers
Clay:
Prediction: San Francisco 24, Los Angeles Rams 23
ATS pick: Los Angeles Rams and the over
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
It's the last week of the NFL season, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games. Pay attention to which teams are resting players in preparation for the playoffs and which teams are looking to play spoiler.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Total: 40.5
Phil Steele's take: The Bengals played their final game for Marvin Lewis at home last week and sent him out a winner, upsetting the Lions. The last time they played an all-effort home game was on a Monday night when they almost upset the Steelers. The next week, they were destroyed by the Bears 33-7. The Bengals' incentive here is to knock division rival Baltimore out of the playoffs. These two played in the opener, and Baltimore had only a 47 yardage edge but was plus-four in turnovers in a 20-0 road win. The Ravens will treat this like a postseason game, and the Bengals might have little left after last week's upset. That has me leaning with the Ravens, even though Baltimore is 1-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2011.
ATS pick: Lean on Baltimore
Sharp: While Cincinnati was eliminated from the playoffs long ago and this will be Marvin Lewis' last game, Baltimore is currently the AFC fifth seed and clinches a playoff berth with a win. The Bengals run defense ranks 23rd overall and 29th in rushing success rate allowed, and will be without LB Vontaze Burfict. Cincinnati rallied for its first win in a month last week to beat the Lions but may have cashed out with that win. The Ravens should win and I don't know that the Bengals' pass offense is explosive enough to keep up.
Lean: Ravens
Clay:
Prediction: Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 15
ATS pick: Cincinnati
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Total: 43
Phil Steele's take: Jim Caldwell is rumored to be on his way out, while the Lions were eliminated from postseason contention with a Week 16 loss. Detroit rolled over a Brett Hundley-led Packers team in Green Bay this year 30-17, even allowing a touchdown on the final play. Detroit is trying to earn its first series sweep of Green Bay in 26 years. In the Packers' past three road games with Hundley as the starter, they have beaten Chicago and Cleveland and lost only to the Steelers by three, so I will take the points in this meaningless game.
ATS pick: Lean on Green Bay
Sharp: With the Lions' playoff elimination last weekend and rumors circulating about head coach Jim Caldwell, there is a lot of uncertainty in Detroit. Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy finds himself in uncharted territory, with the option of being able to test out younger players. After playing three straight games against top-six run defenses, Green Bay should be able to run on the 28th-ranked Lions defense. Detroit should be able to pass the ball on the Packers' poor pass defense, and the Lions claim they will play all of their starters. After being shut out, I presume the Packers give a better effort offensively, but they will be without Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams.
Lean: Packers
Clay:
Prediction: Detroit 27, Green Bay 22
ATS pick: Green Bay and the over
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins
Total: 42.5
Phil Steele's take: The Bills are still alive for the playoffs but need to win and have both the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Chargers lose to get in. The game was moved to 4:25 p.m. ET, so all three games are going on at the same time. Just two weeks ago, Buffalo led Miami 24-6 at home in the eventual eight-point victory. Last week, Buffalo led 16-13 in the third quarter but lost by 21 to the mighty New England Patriots. The Dolphins did win their past two home games, over Denver and New England, and are plus-72 yards per game in Miami. The Bills' only two losses the past five weeks have come to New England. The Patriots are at the top of the NFL and Miami is at the bottom, and I look for a repeat performance from Buffalo.
ATS pick: Lean on Buffalo
Sharp: Buffalo is currently out of the playoffs but can earn a wild card in a few scenarios. The Bills played excellently for most of the game against the Patriots but still were creamed on the scoreboard. If Kenyan Drake gets the bulk of carries, he should have no problem producing against this porous, 30th-ranked Bills run defense. The Dolphins should have produced better on the scoreboard in their last meeting but were limited by costly turnovers in the red zone.
Lean: Dolphins
Clay:
Prediction: Miami 22, Buffalo 19
ATS pick: Miami and the under
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Total: 45
Phil Steele's take: The Panthers could still win the division but would need to win here and have the Saints lose to Tampa Bay. If that happens and Minnesota loses to Chicago, the Panthers would net the No. 2 seed and a bye week. If the Saints win, the Panthers will be the No. 5 seed regardless of this outcome. The Falcons made the Super Bowl last year, and despite an uneven season, they just need a win here to get back into the playoffs (they would also get in with a Seattle loss). Carolina was fortunate to score a late touchdown and get past Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers had a 392-255 yardage edge last week. The Panthers are the stronger team, and they are getting over a field goal advantage, which is attractive. The only negative is that if the Panthers find out the Saints are up big, they might protect some of their key players at the end.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Sharp: Carolina has clinched a playoff berth and can be anywhere between the 2- and the 5-seed, while Atlanta can earn a trip to the playoffs with a win over Carolina. This game is far more important to the Falcons, but Carolina should keep playing tough so long as they don't scoreboard-watch and see the Saints crushing the Buccaneers. The Panthers' pass defense is trending extremely poorly, particularly in explosive passing, which is something the Falcons should look to exploit early and often. Carolina has been much better running the ball of late, and the Falcons' run defense is the easiest they've faced since Week 5 against the Lions.
ATS pick: Panthers
Clay:
Prediction: Atlanta 23, Carolina 21
ATS pick: Carolina and the under
New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 50
Phil Steele's take: The Saints led Atlanta 23-6 last week in a 10-point win and now just need a win here to wrap up the NFC South title and either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. They can also win the NFC South if Carolina loses to Atlanta. With a loss and a Carolina win, the Saints would be on the road next week, making this matchup important. Tampa Bay is just 4-11 but is playing strong down the stretch, as it has lost to three playoff contenders in Detroit, Atlanta and Carolina by just three points each over the past three weeks. Tampa Bay has been giving great effort despite being banged up, and it remains a bit depleted.
The good thing about backing New Orleans is that the Saints tend to win their games by good margins. The spread here is 6.5, and the Saints have won 10 of their past 11 games by eight points or more, including nine by double digits. Tampa Bay is just 9-22 ATS since 2009 as a home underdog. The Saints had a 407-200 yardage edge when these two played in November and are one of my key selections for Week 17.
ATS pick: New Orleans
Sharp: New Orleans has clinched a playoff berth and can win the NFC South with a victory over the Bucs, so the Saints have tremendous motivation in this game. Eliminated long ago, the Buccaneers are actually gutting out performances, not losing by a TD in any of their last four games. Tampa Bay will look to take advantage of a Saints defense that is trending poorly in rushing and explosive passing defense. With Saints No. 1 WR Michael Thomas nursing a hamstring injury, expect the Saints to lean on the run game early and often.
ATS pick: Buccaneers
Clay:
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Tampa Bay 21
ATS pick: New Orleans and the under
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Total: 41.5
Phil Steele's take: The Jaguars learned before kickoff last week that they had locked up the AFC South title, and the defense took the week off, allowing 44 points. Tennessee benefited from the Rams missing a field goal and an extra point, as well as getting a 4-yard fumble return touchdown to lead 10-6. Tennessee won this matchup 37-16 back in Week 2, but Jacksonville is clearly the superior team. If this game mattered to both teams, I would take the Jaguars to win by at least a touchdown, but since they are locked into the No. 3 seed and could be playing the Titans again next week, they might rest players here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Jacksonville has won the AFC South and is locked into the No. 3 seed and may rest players but plans to play everyone. The Jaguars likely don't want to have the 44-point performance to the 49ers last week leaving a bad taste in their mouth, but at the same time, they very well may meet the Titans next week in the wild-card round. Meanwhile, the Titans need to win this game to lock up a spot in the playoffs.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Jacksonville 23, Tennessee 19
ATS pick: Jacksonville
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-15)
Total: 43
Phil Steele's take: I would think that avoiding a return trip to Pittsburgh would be a high priority for Bill Belichick, making a win here important. The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS versus the Patriots and almost pulled the upset at home this year with a touchdown taken off the board after a controversial review in a seven-point loss. The Patriots are on an 8-1 ATS run and get to take on backup quarterback Bryce Petty, who has hit just 34 of 67 passes for 149 yards per game with a 1-to-3 ratio the past two weeks. The Jets forget to pack their offense when they travel, as they average 375 yards per game at home and just 234 on the road. The Patriots wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a solid win.
ATS pick: Lean on New England
Sharp: New England is currently the AFC's top seed and can clinch home-field advantage with a win. The Jets are still playing out the string extremely hard, but Bryce Petty has shown limited offensive ability, completing just 47 percent of his passes as a starter. It's likely too many points and rather than lean Jets, it really depends how big the Patriots are up and how long they play their starters.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: New England 32, New York Jets 15
ATS pick: New England and the over
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5)
Total: 40
Phil Steele's take: The Colts are the worst team in the NFL statistically, being outgained by 91 yards per game. They have also been the worst team in the league over the past four weeks, at minus-122 yards per game. While the Texans are stronger in 2017, that is because they had Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt early in the season. Over the past four weeks, Houston is minus-112 yards per game.
Houston had one last shot to shine Monday night versus Pittsburgh but lost 34-6 and now travels on a short holiday week. The Texans were already down to their third- and fourth-string quarterbacks last week in a contest in which both left with potential concussions. The Colts, meanwhile, had the ball deep in Baltimore territory late last week on the road trailing by just a touchdown and almost upset Pittsburgh and Tennessee in recent home games. I know the Colts' only wins have been by three, three and six points this year, but this could be their spot to shine.
ATS pick: Lean on Indianapolis
Rynning: This Colts offense is on the verge of finally producing points. The Colts have played capable defensive teams of late, including the Broncos and Jaguars and the Ravens in brutal weather in Week 16. The decimated Texans defense is a firm step-down in class. It's not easy to see the light at the end of the tunnel for this Texans offense with T.J. Yates under center. Still, he's faced two top-notch defensive teams the last two weeks in the Steelers and Jaguars. He'll likely be without DeAndre Hopkins in this one but should have Will Fuller to make plays.
Pick: Over
Sharp: In a meaningless game for both teams, even if both play their starters and give full effort, it could be a dud. Even against the weaker defenses of the Titans and Texans in the second half of the season, the Colts were unable to top 20 points. They are a run-first team going up against a top-10 run defense of the Texans. The Texans will be starting T.J. Yates and will be without DeAndre Hopkins.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Indianapolis 21, Houston 19
ATS pick: Houston
Washington Redskins (-3) at New York Giants
Total: 39.5
Phil Steele's take: This could be Eli Manning's last game as quarterback of the New York Giants. In their last home game, they took Philadelphia to the wire and even had a 504-341 yardage edge. This is just the third time in the past 12 years that the Redskins have been an away favorite in a divisional game, and they lost earlier this year at a depleted Dallas 38-14. The Redskins' offense averaged just 233 yards the previous three games before putting up 386 yards on the Broncos' excellent defense. Washington can actually get to 8-8 with a win here, while the Giants can wrap up the No. 2 spot in the draft with a loss. Last week's results would have you thinking Washington in an easy victory, but all season long, these teams have zigged when you thought they would zag, and that has me leaning with the home 'dog.
ATS pick: Lean on the New York Giants
Rynning: Look for Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to put plenty of points on the scoreboard against a reduced Giants secondary now without stalwart Landon Collins (and a suspended Eli Apple). This is still a capable passing unit that's faced rock-solid defensive backfields the last three weeks in the Broncos, Cardinals and Chargers. Yes, the Giants are woeful, but that's on both sides of the football. Keep in mind the Giants put up 504 yards of offense two weeks ago against a good Eagles defense. After playing slower throughout much of the year, they've picked up the pace the last two weeks.
ATS pick: Over and lean Redskins
Sharp: With both teams eliminated, this game is a total wild card. The Redskins' run defense is the second worst in the NFL, which should be welcomed by the Giants after facing two of the best in the Eagles and Cardinals. Question marks surround key NYG TE Evan Engram and WR Sterling Shepard and their availability.
Lean: Redskins
Clay:
Prediction: Washington 21, New York Giants 20
ATS pick: New York Giants and the over
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11.5)
Total: 39
Phil Steele's take: Minnesota wraps up the No. 2 seed and a bye if it wins this game or gets some help from either the Buccaneers or Falcons. This is an early game, and the other two are played late, so a win is the priority. The Vikings look like the best team in the NFC, as they have the best defense in the NFL and a top-10 offense. Minnesota's plus-78 yards per game is the second best in the NFL. Last week's shutout win was actually the Vikings' first since 1993, and they are on a 9-1 ATS run. Minnesota has held foes to just 255 yards per game and 12.8 points per game at home, while the Bears come in with the No. 30 offense in the NFL at just 293 yards per game. Home is the theme here, as the Vikings are trying to become the first team to ever host a Super Bowl, and right now I give them a great shot at it.
ATS pick: Lean on Minnesota
Sharp: Minnesota can clinch a first-round bye with a win, and it's hard not to envision a game effort, particularly in the first half. The Bears were able to run on the Browns' tough run defense, but that unit has trended very poorly of late, whereas Minnesota's run defense is top five. Mitchell Trubisky will be under siege, and the Vikings are the first top-half pass defense he's faced since a 31-3 drubbing at the hands of the Eagles in Week 12.
Lean: Vikings
Clay:
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Chicago 12
ATS pick: Minnesota and the under
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 39
Phil Steele's take: The Eagles clinched home field throughout the playoffs with last week's lackluster win over Oakland. The Eagles figure to rest some players, but the offense produced only 216 yards against a weak Raiders defense, so they could feel the need to get Nick Foles more in gear before that first playoff game in two weeks. Dallas had a dominating 283-136 yardage edge versus Seattle last week but shot itself in the foot numerous times and was eliminated from the playoffs. Last year, the Cowboys had a playoff seed clinched and lost at home to the non-playoff Eagles 27-13, with Philadelphia having a 346-195 yardage edge. Ezekiel Elliott shook off the rust last week, and Dallas is playing with legitimate revenge after being embarrassed at home 37-9 in the first matchup of these divisional rivals.
ATS pick: Lean on Dallas
Sharp: The Eagles have clinched the No. 1 seed and will rest starters. The Cowboys' Jerry Jones wants to see younger players get some action, while Jason Garrett said that he plans to play everyone who is healthy. Too many questions on playing time here.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Dallas 24, Philadelphia 22
ATS pick: Philadelphia and the over
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-8)
Total: 42
Phil Steele's take: The Chargers need a win here and a Tennessee loss to make the playoffs. The Chargers had a 379-295 yardage edge at New York last week against the Jets. Oakland, meanwhile, had a 274-216 yardage edge, with the Eagles taking a 13-10 lead on a field goal with 22 seconds left following a late interception. Philadelphia added a 23-yard fumble return touchdown on a lateral play for a misleading nine-point win. When these two met back in October, it was Derek Carr's first game back from injury and the Chargers won on the road 17-16, holding him to 165 yards passing. Oakland could very well have the crowd edge, with plenty of Raiders fans residing in Los Angeles.
The Chargers are No. 7 in the NFL at plus-41 yards per game, while Oakland is minus-17 yards per game. Oakland's defense has shown a lot of improvement, as it has allowed just 288 yards per game over the past five. Oakland could have beaten both Dallas and Philadelphia the past two weeks, and with the spread inflated for playoff need, I will lean with the Raiders.
ATS pick: Lean on Oakland
Sharp: The Chargers need to win and have the Jaguars beat the Titans and possibly the Ravens beat the Bengals. It's a messy scenario, but they can control only their game against the Raiders. Last week, the Chargers' newly porous run defense gave up 145 rushing yards to Bilal Powell on just 19 carries, which should give hope to the Raiders' rushing offense. While Derek Carr has regressed tremendously, the Raiders' defense has done enough to keep their games competitive since their drubbing by the Patriots in Mexico.
ATS pick: Raiders
Clay:
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers 24, Oakland 16
Pick: Under
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Total: 38.5
Phil Steele's take: Seattle is still alive for the playoffs but needs a win here and an Atlanta loss. Seattle has a weak offensive line, its current top running back Mike Davis has just 192 rushing yards on the year (3.3 yards per carry), and the pass game has produced 71 and 60 yards the past two weeks. Seattle had 149 total yards versus the Rams and beat the Cowboys last week despite being outgained 283-136. Arizona is a different team at home at plus-41 yards per game and 4-0-1 ATS over its past five but is 1-6 ATS on the road this year and minus-34 yards per game.
Back in November, Arizona led Seattle 15-7 with a 190-90 yardage edge at the half but did trail 22-10, getting a touchdown with 20 seconds left to lose by six. Seattle is overpriced at -9.5 for this game, but Arizona backup quarterback Drew Stanton has completed just 48.4 percent this year.
ATS pick: Lean on Seattle
Sharp: Seattle is currently out of the playoffs, but if the Seahawks win and the Falcons lose, Seattle will be the No. 6 seed. As such, there is tremendous motivation for the Seahawks. Seattle has faced a grueling schedule of run offenses and finally gets to face a team that can't run the football, ranking 32nd in the league. Arizona will have to turn to the pass, and that means more Drew Stanton, which is never a good thing.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Seattle 22, Arizona 15
ATS pick: Arizona and the under
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Total: 38
Phil Steele's take: Last week, Denver had a 215-139 yardage edge at the half against the Redskins but trailed 10-3, which is the story of their season. The Broncos' defense allowed 247 yards in the second half, and the team trailed 27-3 before a garbage touchdown with 1:13 left. Kansas City is locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC and will rest a good portion of its starters with a home playoff game on deck. Patrick Mahomes makes his first NFL start in his first-ever action in Mile High against Denver's No. 2-rated defense. Denver is actually plus-39 yards per game this year, which is eighth best in the NFL, while Kansas City is only plus-eight and No. 13. With this figuring to be Denver's starters at home versus the Chiefs' backups, I'll make the Broncos an ATS selection in this one.
ATS pick: Denver
Sharp: Kansas City has clinched the AFC West and is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Chiefs are playing backups, but the questions remain: how many backups and how long do their other starters play? Denver is starting Paxton Lynch, and this is a game that could go any number of ways based on quarterback play.
ATS pick: Pass
Clay:
Prediction: Denver 20, Kansas City 17
ATS pick: Kansas City and the under
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Total: 43.5
Phil Steele's take: The Rams lost outstanding kicker Greg Zuerlein prior to last week's matchup against Tennessee, which would prove costly as far as the spread was concerned with backup Sam Ficken missing an extra point and a 36-yard field goal in the 27-23 victory (the Rams were a six-point favorite). Jimmy Garoppolo improved to 6-0 as a starter as San Francisco took advantage of a Jacksonville team that wrapped up its division title when Tennessee lost earlier. The Rams have wrapped up their own division title and will host a playoff game next week regardless of this outcome (expected to rest starters). San Francisco is statistically the third-best team in the NFL the past four weeks at plus-83 yards per game. The 49ers figure to be much more interested in keeping the momentum going, while the Rams are looking to get out of this matchup unscathed.
ATS pick: Lean on San Francisco
Rynning: Handicapping the final week of the NFL regular season is always an interesting study. There are a few games in which one can throw out all the numbers throughout the campaign. This matchup will serve as one of those opportunities, although this 49ers team continues to make waves down the stretch. They have all the momentum with Jimmy Garoppolo under center as they build to actually challenge the Rams in 2018. The bottom line is that this 49ers team wants to continue to play well and win. That's not the case for this Rams team with an eye toward the playoffs. This will serve more as a preseason game for them with crucial starters like Jared Goff and Todd Gurley not suiting up.
ATS pick: 49ers
Clay:
Prediction: San Francisco 24, Los Angeles Rams 23
ATS pick: Los Angeles Rams and the over
