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Thread: 2018 achandicap soccer plays

  1. #176  
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    Here's my World Cup futures. Nothing real shocking here that others haven't predicted throughout the Internet. I've grouped them by units played. My thought process is this:

    --Germany, Brazil and France are rightful favorites. If everything goes to plan, Germany has the easiest road, with Brazil and France on the other side of the bracket. I'm concerned about Brazil, however. They have a tendency to choke in group stages, and if they finish second would face a group-winning Germany in the first round. Finally, if that happens, then France has the easy path to the finals.
    --I like England, Belgium and Colombia as longshots. England and Belgium should cruise through their group, which also includes Tunisia and Panama. One of those teams will get Colombia and the other Group H advancing country. I am hoping to have two of these three countries in the quarterfinals, and then can hedge against them if necessary.
    --I like Morocco, Peru, Iceland and Costa Rica as live dogs to advance to the knockout stage. Peru (Group C) and Iceland (Group D) have the best chances. Peru is a team on the rise that played very well through qualifying. Iceland is somehow media darlings yet still underrated. Morocco could sneak past perennially overrated Portugal if the Portuguese are still looking back at a loss to Spain. Costa Rica has the best goalie in Keylor Navas and a group that includes the methodical Swiss and Serbia (chances to win 1-0) and the chokeable Brazil.
    --Playing Peru, Morocco and Iceland to go over point totals, coinciding with my thought that they advance. They could not advance and still hit the point totals. Panama can beat Tunisia; I think at +150 I'll get better odds here than once they play in the final match of the group stage.

    5 units
    Colombia O4.5 points -160
    Iceland O2.5 points -105

    4 units
    Germany advances to quarterfinals -210
    Peru O3.5 points -105

    3 units
    France to win +645
    Morocco O2.5 points -135

    2 units
    Brazil to win +415
    Germany to advance to semifinals +107
    Peru to advance to knockout +153
    Iceland to advance to knockout +295
    Panama O1.5 points +150

    1 unit
    England to win +1695
    Belgium to win +1095
    Colombia to win +4490
    Morocco to advance to knockout +320
    Costa Rica to advance to knockout +395
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  2. #177  
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    WEDNESDAY
    BRAZIL
    America MG -.5 +114/Chapacoense, 2 units
    Parana +.5 -125/Cruziero, 1 unit
    Sport Recife/Gremio DRAW +209, 2 units
    Botafogo -.5 +102/Atletico PR, 1 unit
    Vasco da Gama +1 +104/Inter, 1 unit

    Record: 190-234, -28.95
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  3. #178  
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    THURSDAY
    Russia/Saudi Arabia U2 +122, 1 unit

    Expecting a dull, tight match with Russia scoring a hard-fought goal to win the opener. If you want to get gutsy, Russia 1, Saudi Arabia 0 is +410.
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  4. #179  
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    So are the Russians better than expected or the Saudis even worse than expected?

    FRIDAY
    Uruguay/Egypt O2.5 +127, 1 unit
    Morocco -.5 +128/Iran, 2 units
    Portugal +.5 -118/Spain, 1 unit
    Portugal -.5 +328/Spain, 1 unit

    Republic of Ireland also plays Friday. I will probably have plays from there in the morning.
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  5. #180  
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    Last matchday in Ireland for a couple weeks.

    IRELAND
    Bray +1 -123/Waterford, 2 units
    Derry City +1.5 -130/Dundalk, 2 units
    Limerick +1 -106/Shamrock, 3 units
    Sligo +.5 +121/St. Patrick's, 1 unit
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  6. #181  
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    SATURDAY
    France -1.75 -110/Australia, 2 units
    Iceland +1.5 -115/Argentina, 3 units
    Peru PK +128/Denmark, 3 units

    Record: 193-237, -26.72
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  7. #182  
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    SUNDAY
    Costa Rica +.5 +104/Serbia, 2 units
    Mexico +1 +114/Germany, 1 unit
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  8. #183  
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    Dropping units here and there, but feeling good about what I've seen.

    MONDAY
    South Korea +.5 -123/Sweden, 2 units
    South Korea -.5 +340/Sweden, 1 unit
    Belgium -.5 -572 and England -.5 -220, 4 units (-139 parlay)
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  9. #184  
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    Like the Belgium and England parlay, good luck with the World Cup action!!
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  10. #185  
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    TUESDAY
    Colombia -.5 -131/Japan, 2 units
    Senegal PK +142/Poland, 1 unit
    Egypt +.5 -123/Russia, 3 units
    Egypt -.5 +320/Russia, 1 unit

    Record: 199-247, -34.84
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  11. #186  
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    So Colombia goes full Luis Saurez in the third minute, and then Russia again plays Superman. So it's time to reach a little bit on what is probably the worst day of the World Cup and go full big-favorite parlay. My concern is Portugal going tits up as they are known to do. But having tied Spain, they absolutely need this win considering Spain should smoke Iran.

    WEDNESDAY
    Portugal -161/Uruguay -550/Spain -486 parlay (+131), 5 units
    Uruguay/Saudia Arabia O3 +105, 2 units
    Spain/Iran O2.5 -127, 2 units
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  12. #187  
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    Wednesday was a day of favorites. Thursday may be the day of dogs. I think all three dogs are live for at least a draw.

    THURSDAY
    Peru +1 -128/France, 1 unit
    Croatia +.5 -129/Argentina, 3 units
    Croatia -.5 +289/Argentina, 1 unit
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  13. #188  
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    FRIDAY
    Costa Rica +1.5 +106/Brazil, 1 unit
    Serbia/Switzerland DRAW +203, 1 unit
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  14. #189  
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    Both of Friday's bets gets burned in the final minutes. Damn...

    SATURDAY
    Tunisia/Belgium U2.5 -109, 2 units
    South Korea +.5 +128/Mexico, 2 units
    Sweden/Germany U2.5 -106, 3 units
    Belgium -276 and Germany -196 parlay (+106), 5 units
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  15. #190  
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    With all that, I only lost two units while going 1-3. Moving on...

    SUNDAY
    Senegal +130 and Colombia +128 parlay (+424), 2 units
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  16. #191  
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    MONDAY
    Russia PK +110/Uruguay, 2 units
    Egypt/Saudia Arabia O2.5 +112, 3 units
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  17. #192  
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    TUESDAY
    Peru -.25 +103/Australia, 4 units
    Argentina -1 -118/Nigeria, 2 units

    Mexico wins World Cup +3350, 1 unit

    Waiting until morning for expanded odds on the preliminary round of Champs and Europa League. Yes, Champs and Europa start this week!
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  18. #193  
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    CHAMPS
    La Fiorita +1.25 +129/Lincoln, 3 units
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  19. #194  
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    Adding CHAMPS
    Drita -.5 -117/FC Santa Coloma, 4 units
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  20. #195  
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    WEDNESDAY
    Brazil -185 and Germany -486 parlay (-117), 3 units

    Record: 207-260, -32.41
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  21. #196  
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    Costa Rica/Switzerland U2 +132, 2 units
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  22. #197  
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    If Brazil is smart, they play for a draw and hope the Swiss beat Costa Rica. That would make Brazil second on group and avoid the hardest half of the knockout stage.

    Brazil/Serbia DRAW +338, 2 units
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  23. #198  
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    THURSDAY
    Belgium/England DRAW +202, 3 units

    Hopefully have some Europa Leg 1 plays in the morning.
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  24. #199  
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    EUROPA PRELIMS LEG 1
    Europa/Prishtima DRAW +206, 2 units
    Kiaksvik +.75 -107/Birkirkara, 4 units
    St. Josephs +1 -104/B36, 3 units
    Druids +1 -118/Trakai, 3 units
    Folgore +1 -109/Engordany, 3 units
    Tre Fiori +1.75 -117/Bala Town, 5 units
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  25. #200  
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    Quote Originally Posted by achandicap View Post
    TUESDAY
    Peru -.25 +103/Australia, 4 units
    Argentina -1 -118/Nigeria, 2 units

    Mexico wins World Cup +3350, 1 unit

    Waiting until morning for expanded odds on the preliminary round of Champs and Europa League. Yes, Champs and Europa start this week!
    I loved that Mexico future until they lost yest and went from the easiest bracket in modern history to now a super tough one
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