I like the Titans +9 as well.......its the only dog I like this week.......& I like Georgia +4.5 on MNF over Bama
So...do you go against the two worst QBs in Bortles and Smith? Or...do you go with the two better QBs in Cam and Ryan? At the same time if you go against the two worst QBs you are taking Taylor and Mariotta. While going with the two better QBs you are going against Brees and Geoff. I am more of a dog player but don't like any of the options. I would probably take Carolina and hoping they keep it close and maybe win.
Yes, this week the favorites look good at first glance, next week the dogs will look good at first glance.
Rams - 6.5
Jax - 8.5
NO - 6.5
KC - 8.5
In that order, to me look good, the bottom 2 you can consider the dog but not so sure you should take 'em. Still a lot of things to consider with 3 days to go, weather, injuries, etc. Have to take a look at SOS all year and "recently" and recent trends on offense especially, and QB performance is always something to look at (Mariota has looked especially bad compared to expectations). Some teams coasted the last game or two and are stronger than their last few games results, some had to push till the end and you have to assess how they will play on Sat & Sun based on that, not the average for the year.
Rams - 6.5
Jax - 8.5
NO - 6.5
KC - 8.5
In that order, to me look good, the bottom 2 you can consider the dog but not so sure you should take 'em. Still a lot of things to consider with 3 days to go, weather, injuries, etc. Have to take a look at SOS all year and "recently" and recent trends on offense especially, and QB performance is always something to look at (Mariota has looked especially bad compared to expectations). Some teams coasted the last game or two and are stronger than their last few games results, some had to push till the end and you have to assess how they will play on Sat & Sun based on that, not the average for the year.
Cam better than Bree's?? Whaaaaa.......
Cam better than Brees? Have to strongly disagree there.
Ryan isn't that much of an upgrade over Goff, if at all, especially when you consider the coaching.
That is not what I said. Yes, Brees is better. I asked the question because either way you are going against the better QB. But with two games they all aren't good and the other two all 4 are good. I was comparing all 4 of the dog QBs to each other. Cam and Geoff are both begtter than Taylor and Mariotta.I will take Carolina because they might be the best of the four teams and a division rival. I think Tenn is probably the next best dog
Got it.
Last year the home teams all won easily, but Miami and Oakland were both playing their backup QB's.
OBJ had his much publicized dropathon after vacationing in Miami before the game.
Anyway
Bills Jags
Bills don't turn the ball over. They ranked 6th in giveaways. Bills gave up 10 interceptions, but half of them came in one half of ugly football with Peterman, and Joe Webb chipped in a sneaky one as well. Taylor was responsible for only 4 interceptions [which ranks him number 1].
If you ignore Peterman, the Bills were ranked top in giveaways with 10 for the season.
Its way more probable that Bortles turns the ball over than Taylor.
Also the Bills traded away most of their weapons earlier in year, in an obvious tank attempt. They benched Taylor for Peterman while in the playoff hunt. But the team didn't quit and ended up making the playoffs. Its had to put a metric on this but there must be some good team vibe, underdog, brotherhood in adversity kind of thing going on.
They are the least talented team in the playoffs and hard to see them beating the Pats or Steelers if they win, so this will effectively be their superbowl. Not sure they will win but game should be close, Jags will shut Bortles down if they get a lead so even if ahead by 15pts late there is a good chance for a Bills backdoor with the 9pt spread. Jags would be reasonably happy to give up late TD in exchange for time off the clock.
So I like Bills in this spot because of:
1. 9pt spread [would make a good teaser candidate as well]
2. Bill's don't turn the ball over
3. Jags shut it down if ahead, preventing blowout and allowing opportunity for backdoor
4. Reasonable chance that Bortles plays like the Bortles we have become accustomed to over the past 4 years.Billy has had 88 turnovers in last 4 years c/w Tyrod's 27 over same period.
5. Intangible team spirit thing hard to quantify
OBJ had his much publicized dropathon after vacationing in Miami before the game.
Anyway
Bills Jags
Bills don't turn the ball over. They ranked 6th in giveaways. Bills gave up 10 interceptions, but half of them came in one half of ugly football with Peterman, and Joe Webb chipped in a sneaky one as well. Taylor was responsible for only 4 interceptions [which ranks him number 1].
If you ignore Peterman, the Bills were ranked top in giveaways with 10 for the season.
Its way more probable that Bortles turns the ball over than Taylor.
Also the Bills traded away most of their weapons earlier in year, in an obvious tank attempt. They benched Taylor for Peterman while in the playoff hunt. But the team didn't quit and ended up making the playoffs. Its had to put a metric on this but there must be some good team vibe, underdog, brotherhood in adversity kind of thing going on.
They are the least talented team in the playoffs and hard to see them beating the Pats or Steelers if they win, so this will effectively be their superbowl. Not sure they will win but game should be close, Jags will shut Bortles down if they get a lead so even if ahead by 15pts late there is a good chance for a Bills backdoor with the 9pt spread. Jags would be reasonably happy to give up late TD in exchange for time off the clock.
So I like Bills in this spot because of:
1. 9pt spread [would make a good teaser candidate as well]
2. Bill's don't turn the ball over
3. Jags shut it down if ahead, preventing blowout and allowing opportunity for backdoor
4. Reasonable chance that Bortles plays like the Bortles we have become accustomed to over the past 4 years.Billy has had 88 turnovers in last 4 years c/w Tyrod's 27 over same period.
5. Intangible team spirit thing hard to quantify
