Playoff Thread

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 2, 2018

My record posting for 2 seasons here is 23-15-1. This year only had 2 posts going 1-1. I feel I can contribute in this playoffs hence this thread.

Parlay Kansas City ML, Los Angeles Rams ML, New Orleans ML Risking 2 units to win 2.10 units

I do not want to mess with the spreads as I see one of these 3 winning but no cover. Kansas City is playing well as of late of the veteran qb

vs the inexperience of Marriota in the playoffs will be the main factor. The Rams are better offensively and defensively than the Falcons. Rams

will either have a big game from Gurley or use the play action off him to create some nice plays. New Orleans is clearly the better team here in

their matchup with Carolina. This isn't a sexy pick but I don't care because I do not see this losing.

Feel free to discuss these games and if you can convince me to change my mind that is welcomed.

TheComputerGroup · Jan 2, 2018

I like this parlay, don't see KC losing SU, but do think Titans can cover.....the other two IMO will cover spread as well.

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 8, 2018

I was dead wrong on that parlay. 0-1 -2 Units

Atlanta ML -145 Risking 2.9 units to win 2 units. Atlanta looks to me in the lst couple of games like a defense that can keep them in any game. With there offense being well balanced I think this is a game they should win regardless of it being outdoors in the cold. It's more a fade of how the Eagles are playing with Foles right now.

Saints ML +170 Risking 1.5 units to win 2.05 units. You look at these two teams and you can see Minnesota is probably a better overall football team than the Saints. So that means they should win the game right? Not really in my eyes. Brees is 38 years old and this may be his last real chance of winning a SB. Yes they have a lot of young talent that will improve but so many things have to go right in season to get back to be a good playoff team. Let's face it, unless your the Patriots, you can't pencil yourselves into the 2nd rd of the playoffs every season. Late in yesterday's game, Brees threw to a well covered wr on 3rd down and he put it in a spot where on the wr could get to it and well he made a heck of a catch late in the game. Guy's like Brees and Rodgers who don't always have the better team will their team to victory with spectacularly accurate throws. Minnesota can do everything right in this game but in the end, I believe the qb of Brees will be the difference that gets them the victory.

TheComputerGroup · Jan 8, 2018

What's the actual ranking on defense for remaining playoffs teams.....it seems I get different rankings everywhere I go......

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 8, 2018

The DVOA whic grades efficiency has the Vikings the #2 defense. This was as of 1/1. JAgs are 1st, Philly 5 and Falcons 22. I know for ppg int he regular season Vikings were #1 on defense.

Last year in the playoffs if betting on the team with the better overall DVOA you would have been 10-1 ATS, the lone loss was Dallas to GB... So far these playoffs it is 0-4 ATS. Could be a reversal of last year. They update the #'s usually monday or tuesday night.

TheComputerGroup · Jan 8, 2018

TheWorldIsMine said:
The DVOA whic grades efficiency has the Vikings the #2 defense. This was as of 1/1. JAgs are 1st, Philly 5 and Falcons 22. I know for ppg int he regular season Vikings were #1 on defense.

Last year in the playoffs if betting on the team with the better overall DVOA you would have been 10-1 ATS, the lone loss was Dallas to GB... So far these playoffs it is 0-4 ATS. Could be a reversal of last year. They update the #'s usually monday or tuesday night.

Yup, looks like a reversal........public picks up on a trend & the following year they play previous years playoff trends & get crushed.

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 9, 2018

Tenn/NE 1st half Over Risk 1 .1 unit to win 1 unit Do not have a line with my book but will make a wager soon as it comes out. I play 1st half overs in the playoffs in certain situations and this happens to fall into that spot.

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 9, 2018

Atl/Philly Under 41.5 Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. This will be a grind it out type game. The Falcons do not put up the offensive numbers like last year. Philly will focus on running the ball more and playing good defense. I see a 20-16 type game.

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 15, 2018

That Saints ML loss hurt. Win some lose some.

I will be on Jags + pts as well as 1st half Over Minn/Phil game.

TheComputerGroup · Jan 15, 2018

TheWorldIsMine said:
That Saints ML loss hurt. Win some lose some.

I will be on Jags + pts as well as 1st half Over Minn/Phil game.

Yeah, I had Saints ML also, so many mistakes by Payton & his players in that final minute, unreal! Go Jags!

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 18, 2018

Minn/Phil 1st Half Over 19 Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units I expect this game to have more scoring than everyone is predicting. Ed Hochuli calls 6.91% more penalties on the home team than the league average and has 5.8% more yardage in penalties than the league average. Why would this effect the total to go over? If the penalties drive the opponent back closer to their own goaline and they have to put it should give the opposition a shorter field. We might get some turnovers causing short fields setting up prime scoring chances.

I lean the Jaguars right now but a lot of people in the forums do as well which is a bit scary.

powerz · Jan 18, 2018

Official	Home Record (ATS)	Under Record	PPG
Ed Hochuli	72-82 (46.8% -13.15 units)	82-76 (51.9% 1.93 units)	44.1

Gl with your plays

TheComputerGroup · Jan 18, 2018

TheWorldIsMine said:
Minn/Phil 1st Half Over 19 Risking 5.5 units to win 5 units I expect this game to have more scoring than everyone is predicting. Ed Hochuli calls 6.91% more penalties on the home team than the league average and has 5.8% more yardage in penalties than the league average. Why would this effect the total to go over? If the penalties drive the opponent back closer to their own goaline and they have to put it should give the opposition a shorter field. We might get some turnovers causing short fields setting up prime scoring chances.

I lean the Jaguars right now but a lot of people in the forums do as well which is a bit scary.

I like the Over 39 full game.......will be 44 degrees at kick off, should be Ok to have some nice scoring.

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 19, 2018

Thank you powerz.
TCG the warmer weather will help the offenses move the ball.

Jax/NE Under 47 risking 3.3 units to win 3 units

Minn/Phil Over 39. Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

Will give an explanation later on.

TheComputerGroup · Jan 19, 2018

TheWorldIsMine said:
Thank you powerz.
TCG the warmer weather will help the offenses move the ball.

Jax/NE Under 47 risking 3.3 units to win 3 units

Minn/Phil Over 39. Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

Will give an explanation later on.

The Pats/Jags came down to 45, I jumped on Under 47 last night, we got lucky to get it in before the move.

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 19, 2018

The Computer Group said:
The Pats/Jags came down to 45, I jumped on Under 47 last night, we got lucky to get it in before the move.

I put my bet in last night too. Glad we got 47!

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 21, 2018

Under on the first game because New England will not move the ball with ease like they are accustomed to. Brady is going to feel hurried by the front 4 of Jacksonville. The Jags on offense will be very basic and run, run, run to control the clock and keep Brady on the sidelines.

The next game I feel like both defenses will cause short fields for their offenses and look for a lot of flags from Ed Hochuli which can pin an offense back giving the opposing team excellent field postion. I expect the other teams to dare the opposing quarterback to throw the ball deep so we might get a couple of deep pockets balls to help the over.

Also have 1st half over in the Philly game for 5 units.

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 21, 2018

Adding Minnesota ML -165. Risking 1.65 units to win 1 unit

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 21, 2018

1st half over cash it for 5 units @)

TheWorldIsMine · Jan 21, 2018

Will be betting 5-8 units on 1st half over in the Superbowl

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