NBA Week 12,...

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brewers7

brewers7

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
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37-23 (regular season), +$1170.

Sides: 19-11
Totals: 16-7
2H: 0-5
1Q: 1-0
1H: 1-0
#1 Sides: 46-27-2
#1 Totals: 42-32-1

Picks

Sides: (1) Por, (2) Mem, (3) Cha, (4) NY, (5) Atl

Totals: (1) Por un, (2) Atl ov, (3) Cha un, (4) NY un, (5) Mem ov

Thoughts: Damian Lillard returns for Portland, while Isaiah Thomas returns for Cleveland. However, Thomas will be on a minutes restriction and will only play 8 to 12 minutes tonight. Kevin Love is questionable for the Cavs with an illness and missed their shootaround. Portland is 3-1-2 ATS in back-enders while the Cavs are an atrocious 1-5 ATS when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender. Cleveland is trending toward the Under and if Love is out, I really like the Under more. Also, with Thomas playing 8 to 12 minutes tonight, this will potentially disrupt their rotations. Portland has been an Under team all year despite occasional very high-scoring outputs.

I do not like anything else. I want to bet Memphis and the Clips Overs, but despite hearing about how the Grizzlies coach wants to push the Pace more. However, despite the Grizzles averaging 123/7 points per game their last 3 games, their Pace numbers for those games are only up slightly from their seasonal Pace number. But the Grizzlies offensive efficiency in those 3 games are off the charts. Makes me wonder whether they can possibly continue to keep shooting lights out. Doubt it, but you never know.
 
brewers7

brewers7

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
Messages
2,726
Tokens
37-23 (regular season), +$1170.

Sides: 19-11
Totals: 16-7
2H: 0-5
1Q: 1-0
1H: 1-0
#1 Sides: 46-28-2
#1 Totals: 42-33-1

Picks

Sides: (1) Phi, (2) Bos, (3) Tor, (4) NO, (5) OKC, (6) Mia, (7) Ind, (8) Orl, (9) Pho, (10) Dal, (11) NY, (12) Min

Totals: (1) Dal ov, (2) Bos un, (3) Pho ov, (4) Tor ov, (5) NO ov, (6) Phi ov, (7) OKC un, (8) Orl un, (9) NY ov, (10) Mia un, (11) Ind un, (12) Min un

Thoughts: Extended cold streak here. I would strongly recommend not taking any of my plays until you see some winners in the Top 3 picks and especially #1 picks. I do like some picks tonight, but just cannot bet anything until I KNOW I am seeing things better. My totals gave been flat out awful for 2 weeks now.

I simply cannot have a #1 pick go against a chart-play. The Cavs snapped their NC5 with a Cover last night at home vs. Portland and now play the Celtics. Boston is 3-1-1 in checkmark games (meaning they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender) and the Cavs are 3-3 ATS in back-enders (although 3-0 ATS their last 3 in this spot). The Cavs are also 6-0 to the Under in back-ender this season. So I obviously like Boston and the Under.

Draymond Green and Zaza Pachulia are questionable tonight for Golden State. Missing Green means the Warriors are missing a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate which means this game trends to the Over. Dallas has also averaged 238.5 points per game in their last 2 games as their offense is clicking. I do like this Over as my best play of the day, but I have been so off on my totals the last 2 weeks that I cannot recommend any total as a play right now.
 
vinnyvegas

vinnyvegas

F me, F U
Joined
Oct 15, 2004
Messages
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It'll pass buddy. You always turn it around. Hey, I missed, but i always LOVE playing a team that has LOST their best player...James Hardin tonight I think is OUT and first game for Houston w/o him...the STAR PLAYER angle, LOL. I see you went w/ ORL and I'm late to comment but will track to see how this plays out tonight.

Thanks again for posting
 
brewers7

brewers7

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
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Will give this a try:

New York / Washington under 105.5, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...
 
brewers7

brewers7

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
Messages
2,726
Tokens
38-23 (regular season), +$1270.

Sides: 19-11
Totals: 16-7
2H: 1-5
1Q: 1-0
1H: 1-0
#1 Sides: 47-28-2
#1 Totals: 43-33-1

Picks

Sides: (1) GS, (2) OKC

Totals: (1) GS un, (2) OKC ov

Thoughts: Finally broke out in a big way last night. Top 4 picks on sides and totals went 8-0. Does this mean I am back picking winners left and right for the next 4 or 5 weeks in a row? I would not go that far, but I liked a lot of picks last night and I ranked them well and had a lot of winners, so I feel good about that. I like tonight’s board a bit, too.

Durant out so an automatic Under play for me as earlier this season I quoted numbers from last season when Durant was out and how ridiculous the number of Unders was with him out. The Warriors have a revenge spot here from Opening Night so despite this being a strong chart-play for Houston, I am taking the revenge spot instead. Which is what I did last night, picking Boston over Cleveland despite the Cavs having a strong chart-play.

OKC clearly a public play here, and I feel that line is extremely fishy. However, extremely public plays do win. No trends at all one way or the other as OKC is 3-3 ATS in back-enders and the Clips are 2-2 in check-mark games. I may stay out one more day before making an official play but I am debating this Golden State under.
 
HarryCaray

HarryCaray

EV Whore
Joined
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Thank you thank you thank you. I was looking at GS and LAC. 2-0 so much better than 1-1.

Keep up the good work man.
 
brewers7

brewers7

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Messages
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HarryCaray said:
Thank you thank you thank you. I was looking at GS and LAC. 2-0 so much better than 1-1.

Keep up the good work man.
Click to expand...

Thank you...


38-23 (regular season), +$1270.

Sides: 19-11
Totals: 16-7
2H: 1-5
1Q: 1-0
1H: 1-0
#1 Sides: 48-28-2
#1 Totals: 43-34-1

Picks

Sides: (1) LAL, (2) Dal, (3) Mil, (4) Min, (5) Mia, (6) Por, (7) Det, (8) Den, (9) Was, (10) SA

Totals: (1) Dal ov, (2) Was ov, (3) Por ov, (4) Min un, (5) LAL un, (6) Mil ov, (7) Den un, (8) SA ov, (9) Mia ov, (10 Det ov

Thoughts: Busy day at work. I like today’s board though. The 4 plays I asterisked as “top” plays were my top 2 sides and totals. I like others, too.

Milwaukee an auto-play with the short-revenge angle as the Raptors just beat them at in OT at Toronto 4 days ago. Bucks have the automatic revenge play just 4 days later. Portland also has the same spot with Atlanta, but I rank the Blazers lower due to the 6.5-point chalk. Dallas is FLYING over the total their last 3 games and Chicago has also gone Over 4 straight. Memphis Over 4 straight as they are pushing the Pace slightly more than earlier in the season during those games. Lakers have a HUGE bounce-back spot off a 37-point loss at home to OKC and Kyle Kuzma called his team out for quitting in that game. Lonzo Ball is probable to return for the Lakers. Dallas has won 4 out of 5 and covered 5 straight. They lost GS last time out because Stephen Curry swished a 3 with 3 seconds left in the game.

My totals have been dog shit for 2 weeks with the exception of this past Wednesday, so I do not know if I can bet my top 2 totals yet. I will bet the top 2 sides.

Los Angeles Lakers +1.5, laying $110 to win $100

Dallas Mavericks -4, laying $110 to win $100

Good Luck.
 
brewers7

brewers7

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
Messages
2,726
Tokens
38-25 (regular season), +$1050.

Sides: 19-13
Totals: 16-7
2H: 1-5
1Q: 1-0
1H: 1-0
#1 Sides: 48-29-2
#1 Totals: 44-34-1

Picks

Sides: (1) Cle, (2) Det, (3) Min, (4) Mil, (5) Sac, (6) Chi, (7) Bkn, (8) GS

Totals: (1) Cle ov, (2) Sac ov, (3) Bkn un, (4) Min un, (5) Mil ov, (6) Chi ov, (7) GS un, (8) Det un

Thoughts: Very, very close to taking a break at this point. Just too busy at work right now since I went back to full time and this is the busy season at the academy. Becoming harder and harder to post, especially when my top plays are failing the last 2 weeks and I do not want drag anybody down after starting hot the first 8+ weeks. If I do stop posting for a spell, I may just throw my picks on Twitter daily as I will always make my picks and rankings daily to get a pulse for how well (or not so well) I am seeing the board.

Quickly, looks like Cleveland has IT in the starting lineup, so I like them off a loss against a struggling Orlando team. Detroit in bounce-back mode off an embarrassing 36-point loss last night to Philly.
 
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