Best system bets for NFL wild-card weekend

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Best system bets for NFL wild-card weekend
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER

The NFL postseason is here, and though there will be significantly fewer games on the board, we can definitely find some value from a betting perspective.

With all of these games being nationally televised, you may find yourself betting on a game just for the action, but that's something you want to avoid. There are four games this weekend, with eight potential side or total bets, but we will focus here on just two of those matches -- both for totals.

Closed dome overs

The first method you can use when betting on playoff totals involves games played in a dome. Historically, taking the over in these games has been very profitable.


Closed Dome Games
OVERS
Record (win pct.) 25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won +16.41
ROI +49.7 percent
Not too shabby. Last season, playoff games in a dome went over the closing total every time, going 5-0. This even included the NFC Championship and Super Bowl, which closed with totals of 59.5 and 57, respectively.

Why it works

They say defense wins championships. Well, that may often be true, and many people expect unders to do well in the postseason given the caliber of playoff teams' defenses, but that does not hold true indoors.

With no elements to battle, postseason offenses run like well-oiled machines in closed domes. Though the total has dropped or remained at its opening number in 19 of the 33 matches, suggesting sharper bettors aren't expecting high-scoring affairs, it hasn't mattered. In fact, these totals have gone over by an average margin of 6.33 points.



Wild-card match: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

We have one match that fits this weekend, as two familiar foes clash in the Superdome. Six of the past seven games between the Saints and Panthers have gone over, including both games this season.

This game will be essentially a replica of the game a month ago, in which the Saints won 31-21. Seventy-nine percent of bettors took the over in that game, which opened and closed at 48. This weekend's total is sitting at 48.5/49 around the market, but just 54 percent of bettors are on the over.

As I mentioned before, it seems as if bettors expect playoff games to be more of a defensive showdown than regular-season games. There really isn't a reason why close to 80 percent of bettors liked the over a month ago, but barely half do now. It's the same teams, same coaches and same players. Nothing has changed other than the fact that we're now in the playoffs.

With 57 percent of dollars on the under, we may see this total drop down to 48 by week's end. Keep an eye on the number but take the over below 49 if you can.

Pick: Over 48.5 total points

Outdoor unders

If dome games usually go over in the playoffs, one would imagine that outdoor games may go under more often than not. If we take a look at the Bet Labs database, we find that has been the case since the 2003 season, even more so when focusing on high totals.

Since many of these outdoor games have featured brutal winter elements, it's understandable that offenses have had a tough time scoring points. At nearly a 57 percent clip, betting on outdoor unders as a whole has been a profitable approach over the past decade-plus. However, if we only look at games with a closing total of 47.5 or higher, our winning percentage and return on investment both skyrocket.

Why it works

We saw that games go over in domed games regardless of the total, but when oddsmakers set high totals for outdoor games, the under has had a significant advantage.

This really goes against the public's beliefs, as it usually takes the over in games featuring potent offenses. Of the 33 outdoor playoff games since 2003 with a total of 47.5 or higher, only one has had more than 50 percent of bets on the under -- and it was 51 percent.

Taking the under in a football or basketball game always has some contrarian value because the public has historically sided with the over in more than 80 percent of games.



Wild-card match: Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams

There is one match this weekend that may scare off some bettors, and it features the Rams and their league-best offense. At 29.9 point per game (including the Sean Mannion Week 17 affair), the Rams shocked the league thanks to Todd Gurley II and Jared Goff. They'll be hosting Atlanta, whose high-scoring offense from 2016 had a down season. At 22.1 points per game, the Falcons were essentially an average team this season.

So far, 57 percent of bettors have taken the over, but 80 percent of the dollars have come in on the under. That caused the total to drop from 50 to 48.5 at the sharp offshore sportsbook Pinnacle, and from 50.5 to 49 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Try to grab the under on the highest number that you can in case it continues to drop.

Pick: Under 49 total points

Note: Lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check in at ESPN Chalk's Live NFL Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and public betting percentage data. Odds info used in system matches reflects current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
 

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