Forum: International and Other Sports Forum - Discuss betting important International sports such as tennis and golf etc. with sharp handicappers from around the world.

Thread: Fore! 2018

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  1. #101  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Barracuda:

    Outrights:

    Sam Saunders(45/1) e.w.
    Zac Blair(100/1) e.w.
    Martin Laird(30/1) e.w.
    Ben Crane(110/1) e.w.
    Andres Romero(40/1) e.w.
    Hunter Mahan(66/1) e.w.
    Steve Wheatcroft(80/1) e.w.
    Ricky Barnes(80/1) e.w.

    GL
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  2. #102  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Through 31 weeks:
    Outrights YTD: 41-338 (+62.09*)
    Matchups YTD: 36-34 (+2.65*)


    100th P.G.A. Championship:

    Dustin Johnson(8/1) e.w.
    Brooks Koepka(18/1) e.w.
    Rory McIlroy(12/1) e.w.
    Justin Thomas(14/1) e.w.
    Phil Mickelson(75/1) e.w.
    Jason Dufner(150/1) e.w.
    Jason Day(18/1) e.w.
    Henrik Stenson(45/1) e.w.
    Brandt Snedeker(100/1) e.w.

    Beau Hossler(110/1) e.w. First Round Leader
    Matthew Fitzpatrick(40/1) e.w. Top European
    Ross Fisher(50/1) e.w. Top European
    Danny Willett(50/1) e.w. Top European
    Kiradech Aphibarnrat(30/1) e.w. Top ROW
    Patrick Cantlay(25/1) e.w. Top American
    J.J. Spaun(125/1) e.w. Top American

    Rory McIlroy(-145) Finish Un20'
    Brooks Koepka(-105) Finish Un20'
    Justin Thomas(-115) Finish Un20'
    Dustin Johnson(+125) Finish Un10'


    GL
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  3. #103  
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    Nordea Masters:

    Outrights:

    Marcus Kinhult(30/1) e.w.
    Marcel Siem(110/1) e.w.
    Benjamin Hebert(60/1) e.w.
    Matteo Manassero(110/1) e.w.

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  4. #104  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Dick's Sporting Goods:

    Stephen Ames(66/1) e.w.
    Michael Bradley(300/1) e.w.

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  5. #105  
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    First . . . I see that for the first time this year I overlooked posting a play at theRX that I did post on "another forum".
    I only keep one record, so I am posting this documented play here now, and will be including it in my record:

    Wyndham:

    Outrights::

    Si Woo Kim(45/1) e.w.
    Chris Kirk(70/1) e.w.
    Sam Saunders(100/1) e.w.
    Abraham Ancer(70/1) e.w.
    Sam Ryder(100/1) e.w.
    Brandt Snedeker(25/1) e.w.
    Ryan Moore(33/1) e.w.
    Harold Varner(55/1) e.w.
    Andres Romero(200/1) e.w.
    Johnson Wagner(80/1) e.w.
    Hunter Mahan(110/1) e.w.


    Second . . . Wyndham . . . In-running:

    Sam Saunders(500/1) e.w.


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  6. #106  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Czech Masters:

    Outrights:

    Eddie Pepperell(16/1) e.w.
    Dean Burmester(22/1) e.w.
    Scott Hend(40/1) e.w.
    Matthieu Pavon(60/1) e.w.
    Oliver Fisher(80/1) e.w.
    Renato Paratore(80/1) e.w.
    Chase Koepka(400/1) e.w.

    GL
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  7. #107  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Through 33 weeks:
    Outrights YTD: 44-369 (+94.97*)
    Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)
    - - The week started with a 59, and so, so close to a 300/1 payoff. Greatly enhances my definite propensity for above average weeks immediately after one of the four men's majors, when the capping motivation isn't always there, but the ANGLES and INFORMATION are frequently at a peak.

    GL
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  8. #108  
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    Northern Trust:

    Outrights:

    Jordan Spieth(18/1) e.w.
    - - Iíve seen stats broken down that are consistent with Jordanís claims of being close, so Iíd rather be on board a week or two early instead of a week or two late.

    Stewart Cink(100/1) e.w.
    - - Itís been a LONG journey, so IMO Cink has to be relishing the taste of the bit in his mouth, and IMO the time and place line up just fine, with Destination East Lake very much a goal.

    Gary Woodland(66/1) e.w.
    - - Woodland holds his good form and bad form more so than most. Says heís on point, and although I doubted his chops to deliver from out in front at a major, heís likely looking for some redemption, seasoned with some up close Tiger exposure.

    Kevin Streelman(150/1) e.w.
    - - A run of 4th, 10th and disappointing 46th at a place that holds more meaning for Streelman than quite possibly anyone else in the field qualifies as attractive course form in my catechism, and a 7th place in his late season current form offers some hope.
    https://www.pgatour.com/beyond-the-r...ern-trust.html

    Sam Saunders(275/1) e.w.
    - - Saunders has been on the outside looking in at events of this stature, and heís playing awesome enough to perhaps flip a switch toward making some noise.

    Jamie Lovemark(200/1) e.w.
    - - Iíll take a stab per another punterís analysis that Ridgewood has classic, quirky and shot value elements that are right up Lovemarkís street.

    Brandt Snedeker(45/1) e.w.
    - - Sneds could be emotionally spent after the events of last week, but I wonít be picking up this winning marker, and a former FedEx Cup Champion has exhibited momentum before under playoff circumstances.

    Phil Mickelson(90/1) e.w.
    - - I canít abide that price unless Leftyís form and narratives are pretty sour . . . Joining the twitter universe this week doesnít seem on point with a moment of struggles and disinterest.

    Sean OíHair(600/1) e.w.
    - - IMO, lame as it might be, I think there is definitely something wrongish in a price that says OíHair has the least chance of all.

    Kyle Stanley(90/1) e.w.
    - - Iíve given enough serious consideration to the likes of Dechambeau, Na, Schauffele, Matsuyama and Knox to be kicking myself if they deliver, but Iíll let Stanley carry my remaining cash.

    GL
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  9. #109  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Boeing Classic:

    Outrights:

    Paul Goydos(45/1) e.w.
    Brandt Jobe(33/1) e.w.
    Billy Andrade(66/1) e.w.

    GL
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  10. #110  
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    Boeing Classic:

    Outrights:

    Michael Bradley(100/1) e.w.
    Kirk Triplett(50/1) e.w.
    Tim Petrovic(30/1) e.w.
    - - Bradley was overlooked on the capping printout I was working from, but I never intended to pick up that almost winning marker. It appears Jobe is no longer in the field, so my alternate is Triplett. And after the further capping I'll add Petrovic as well (over Parel, Perry or Jimenez).

    GL
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  11. #111  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Made in Denmark:

    Outrights:

    Matthew Fitzpatrick(16/1) e.w.
    Lee Westwood(40/1) e.w.
    Adrian Otaegui(50/1) e.w.
    Justin Walters(125/1) e.w.

    GL
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  12. #112  
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    Quote Originally Posted by lostinamerica View Post

    Northern Trust:

    Kyle Stanley(90/1) e.w.
    - - Iíve given enough serious consideration to the likes of Dechambeau, Na, Schauffele, Matsuyama and Knox to be kicking myself if they deliver, but Iíll let Stanley carry my remaining cash.
    Quote Originally Posted by lostinamerica View Post

    Boeing Classic:

    after the further capping I'll add Petrovic as well (over Parel, Perry or Jimenez).
    - - Having documented a close sniff of both a four stroke winner in DeChambeau(66/1 e.w.), and a three stroke winner in Parel(30/1 e.w.), it's at least one too many that got away to not at least follow through with documentation that I'm kicking myself.

    ****************
    ****************

    Through 34 weeks:
    Outrights YTD: 44-390 (+73.97*)
    Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)

    GL
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  13. #113  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Dell Technologies:

    Outrights:

    Jordan Spieth(20/1) e.w.
    Billy Horschel(50/1) e.w.
    Charley Hoffman(100/1) e.w.
    Bryson DeChambeau(33/1) e.w.
    Louis Oosthuizen(60/1) e.w.
    Nick Watney(200/1) e.w.
    Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
    Hideki Matsuyama(35/1) e.w.
    Stewart Cink(140/1) e.w.
    Bubba Watson(80/1) e.w.
    Gary Woodland(80/1) e.w.

    GL
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  14. #114  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w.

    - - Last week I had a large number of long shots that were definitely "in the hunt to some extent" (at least for a Top 5) after 36 holes, including Jamie Lovemark(200/1) tied for the lead, Chase Koepka(400/1 e.w.) somewhere way over in central Europe, Sean O'Hair(600/1 e.w.), and others. Then even though at the start of the week my capping had me betting very much against the short favorites coming out on top at the Northern Trust, and even though I still felt very much the same after 36 holes, the fact is I looked at my player roster on Friday night and was expecting nothing but a march down the leaderboard (which definitely happened early and often) (the one player I held out the most hope for was Mr. 600/1 Sean O'Hair, and he acquitted himself just O.K.) . . . On to this week, and while I liked my effort and roster in Europe, the takeaways from my capping the PGA Tour for this week are as follows: (1) I feel it is much more likely that this week the Sunday leaderboard will be heavy with the cream of the crop of current players; (2) I had much less time for capping this week than during the past several weeks; (3) I can't pick up my winning marker on Snedeker, and I am playing as though I am not picking up the winning marker that should have been on DeChambeau; and (4) in making final decisions of whom to pull the trigger on during the last hour, my one minimum criteria was that I would probably not be pessimistic about their movement on the weekend leaderboard if they did get heavily involved in the proceedings.

    GL
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  15. #115  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Shaw Charity Classic:

    Outrights:

    Davis Love(25/1) e.w.
    Stephen Ames(55/1) e.w.
    Billy Andrade(50/1) e.w.
    Tommy Tolles(200/1) e.w.
    Tom Pernice(33/1) e.w.

    GL
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  16. #116  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Through 35 weeks:
    Outrights YTD: 47-408 (+83.52*)
    Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)


    Omega Masters:

    Outrights:

    Matt Wallace(25/1) e.w.
    Robert Rock(55/1) e.w.
    Danny Willett(28/1) e.w.
    Richie Ramsay(50/1) e.w.
    Andres Romero(150/1) e.w.
    Nino Bertasio(80/1) e.w.
    Lee Slattery(75/1) e.w.
    Edoardo Molinari(250/1) e.w.
    Adrian Otaegui(55/1) e.w.
    Lee Westwood(28/1) e.w.
    Matteo Manassero(250/1) e.w.


    GL
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  17. #117  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    BMW Championship:

    Outrights:

    Jordan Spieth(20/1) e.w.
    - - Definitely class, definitely displaying extended form that seems so close to a breakthrough reward, but also being his own worst enemy for some reason or another. With some level of pressure to perform at 27th in FedEx points, and a very interesting marquee pairing with Fowler and Woods, he definitely gets a chance to carry my cash again this week.

    Hideki Matsuyama(20/1) e.w.
    - - Some excellent play of late, but the price is not inviting.

    Tiger Woods(22/1) e.w.
    - - Breaking it down as generous but sloping fairways, demanding approaches on the revamp that reward patience, judgment and excellence, typical Donald Ross greens that put serious demands on the short game and putting, maybe even some scary winds on the weekend, and a fairly flat performance last weekend while paired with DeChambeau and Koepka. I think this is the only time this year other than Carnoustie and Firestone when I will have ventured out with Tiger carrying my cash.

    Bryson DeChambeau(16/1) e.w.
    - - Seems unlikely to stack another win, but not picking up a winning marker.

    C.T. Pan(90/1) e.w.
    - - With a limited field of 70 known quantities, and only 23 names ticked for consideration after my initial capping, it wasnít a stretch to give at least a few minutes of focused research on a whole passel of likely suspects, and settle upon the most preferred INFORMATION and ANGLES, for good or bad . . . Based on recent viewing, Iíve got C.T. Pan on the brain from Wyndham and Boston as a threat to get to East Lake by doing great things.

    Kyle Stanley(66/1) e.w.
    - - Has achieved well on classic east coast venues, and sort of like him right now when getting some opportunities on the biggest stages, but donít know why his putter would cooperate this week.

    Bubba Watson(55/1) e.w.
    - - Usually his best at a handful of familiar tracks, but this underappreciated classic course perhaps offers a pleasing mix of definition and ďwide berthsĒ. Regardless, some trending form and a generous price for a proven winner of big events.

    J.J. Spaun(400/1) e.w.
    - - Was not included in the 23 names I had in mind after my initial capping, but upon further analysis this play eclipsed the other long shots as offering good value and a punchers chance.

    GL
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  18. #118  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    KLM Open:

    Outrights:

    Nacho Elvira(40/1) e.w.
    Pablo Larrazabal(80/1) e.w.
    Matthieu Pavon(125/1) e.w.
    Martin Kaymer(66/1) e.w.
    Paul Dunne(45/1) e.w.

    GL
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  19. #119  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Evian:

    Outrights:

    Angela Stanford(200/1) e.w.

    GL
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  20. #120  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Through 37 weeks:
    Outrights YTD: 48-432 (+184.52*)
    Matchups YTD: 38-36 (+2.20*)

    Quote Originally Posted by lostinamerica View Post
    Evian:

    Angela Stanford(200/1) e.w.
    A winning bet that matches my biggest longshot ever of Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w at the 2009 U.S. Open (an event which also included a 5th for Ross Fisher at 125/1 e.w.), although Stanford was for smaller stakes. Actually, Sundayís result was equaled earlier this year with a 3rd place finish on Trevor Immelman(1000/1) e.w. . . But my most amazing week ever is still from 2006 when I hit winners with both Stephen Ames (150/1 e.w.) and Jean Van de Velde(100/1 e.w.).

    I know my time tonight would be better spent capping golf and football, but Iíd rather reflect for a while on a memorable season.

    ďAngela Stanford in a majorĒ was definitely "high on on my list" of "players I want to be on when they win". She has been an auto-play every year in the U.S. Womenís Open, ANA Inspiration, and Evian because simply put, time after time I would track how she would play seriously well while carrying my cash in those events in order to justify more plays . . . Watching her rack up the birdies on my computer during a stunning 64 on Friday, then a string of 4 straight birdies while I was watching on TV on Saturday, and I was pretty hopeful her narrative would make for a truly distinguished effort on Sunday. I was certainly glued to the proceedings on Sunday as she made a stunning eagle on 15, and then holed a stunning 25 foot birdie putt on 17 to bounce back from a memorable double bogie, and then piped her drive down 18, and I definitely and literally stood up and applauded on four occasions on Sunday as simply put, I realized that as long as she finished 5th or better, I was in that moment enjoying my reward for being faithful. Whether 5th or 1st, it would have felt incredibly hollow if I hadnít been on board, but no problem there. Amazing and Righteous.

    ( Looking back, Tiger Woods in a major (28/1) at Carnoustie would have been super high on my list of players I want to be on when they win, and I was super bummed when it slipped away. Looking forward, I have to put Sam Saunders ahead of Lucas Glover as my current #1 want . . . Jean Van de Velde is the name that was my most wanted EVER on that "list". )


    *********************************************


    This also a good time to look back at my first post of the year on January 5:

    Quote Originally Posted by lostinamerica View Post
    - - 2017 was easily my worst season since I started weekly golf capping with my first offshore accounts in 2001. I was modestly profitable on a cumulative basis over the years through 2015, then had a poor year in 2016 that probably consumed all of my modest profits from the prior years, and then 2017 went right down the crapper. While my capping efforts over the last few years have not matched my passionate efforts of the first 10 or 12 years, I definitely invested at least the same time and effort for the first 6 or 7 months of 2017 as I had in recent years, but the results were never there . . . Without a doubt my one big regret from 2017 was not wagering on Andres Romero at 300+/1 at the BMW International after I had wagered on him in the Top Euro market the week before at the U.S. Open and been reasonably satisfied with his play as I was tracking him closely.

    - - I fortunately cut back on my always modest wagers as the losses mounted in 2017 (I started with ďusualĒ bets of $8 x 2 for e.w. wagers way back when, peaked with ďusualĒ wagers of $12 x 2 e.w. around 2007, and last year my usual wagers of $6 x 2 e.w. had been cut back to mostly $5 x 2 and then $4 x 2 e.w. wagers by the end of the season). This week I am back starting with $6 x 2 e.w. wagers . . . However, my big mistake last year was never really cutting back on my usual number of weekly plays of about 5 to 9 players per fully invested event, even though I was seeing almost no returns, and not even ďthreateningĒ very often. This year I will be scaling back on my number of plays per event until I am at least getting some encouraging close calls. So it really wonít be possible to have as bad of a season this year as last year . . . And as of now I plan on investing at least a little more time and effort on a weekly basis, which will certainly help, provided I do it . . . Although not really successful, I did ďthreatenĒ most "consistently" last year with a small number of in-running wagers (not all of which I posted), so by cutting back on my pre-event wagers I can justify a few more wagers in that area

    - - I also get lots of enjoyment from frequently sharing any ANGLES or INFORMATION behind my wagering (per my write-ups on my American football wagers), but that has been tapering off hugely in the golf forum the last two years as my plays have generally sucked and lacked conviction.
    Although 312.5 units of my 184.52 units of profits for the year have come from just 3 plays (Angela Stanford, Trevor Immelman and Steve Flesch(100/1 e.w.), I have not been whiffing on my other 477 outright plays to date. I remember distinctly the first sign of good things to come came modestly enough with Jason Day(22/1 e.w.) at the Farmerís Open in Week#4, and many, many plays since have offered real chances week after week after week. I definitely persevered all season and didnít get frustrated before Immelman in July finally got me into positive territory for the season. Itís been very fun to discover again that I can trust my stuff when it includes doing the work . . . The only area where I have slacked off this season is in making consistent and serious efforts to make in-running wagers.


    *********************************************


    Finally, this seems like a good time to remember exactly how I landed a 3rd place on Trevor Immelman(1000/1 e.w.) . . . That story truly begins with Andres Romero at the U.S. Open in 2017. When I saw Romero qualified in 2017, I hemmed and hawed, and finally settled on a small wager for Top European at around 200/1 e.w. I was then tracking his scoring for 36 holes and thought I detected a steady pulse despite missing the cut by 5 strokes, but carding 6 birdies in rounds of 74 and 76. The following week his price was 600/1 e.w at the BMW in Germany, on a track that seemed to me virtually ideal for a staging a comeback from years in the wilderness, but I just didnít pull the trigger. Lo and behold, Romero wins, which is not just my biggest regret for 2017, but for several years . . . Fast forward to 2018, and I donít really recall anything except the price that had me ďprivatelyĒ dabble with a tiny wager on Immelman for the Irish Open. Then for two days I saw plain as day on my computer that he was dishing out some answers to the test, but the final result was some sort of bizarre combo of double bogie and a DQ on the 36th hole that sent him packing. Then it was on to the Scottish Open the next week and it was a no-brainer for me to conclude that the venue was more suitable, the narrative was intriguing, and there was value (and a mistake) in his price being the same as it was the prior week. At that point, I told myself multiple times before Thursday that I was not going to pull an Andres Romero, and Immelman was the first bet (nothing significant) I made for the week. Gotta trust my stuff. Thank you, Trevor.


    GL
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  21. #121  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Portugal Masters:

    Outrights:

    Robert Rock(66/1) e.w.
    Julien Guerrier(125/1) e.w.
    Nacho Elvira(33/1) e.w.
    George Coetzee(40/1) e.w.
    Raphael Jacquelin(300/1) e.w.
    Nicolas Colsaerts(75/1) e.w.
    Tom Lewis(50/1) e.w.
    Ricardo Gouveia(175/1) e.w.
    Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano(250/1) e.w.
    Pablo Larrazabal(55/1) e.w.
    Matthew Southgate(10/1) e.w.
    Oliver Fisher(200/1) e.w.
    - - A Palmer design. Do I have any reason to feel lucky? Are we near Barcelona? Allez les Bleus!

    GL
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  22. #122  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Tour Championship:

    Outrights:

    Tiger Woods(12/1) e.w.
    Cameron Smith(50/1) e.w.
    Bubba Watson(40/1) e.w.
    Billy Horschel(25/1) e.w.
    Webb Simpson(25/1) e.w
    .
    - - 5 selections in a field of 30 with no long odds is not a recipe for long term success, and this is in an event in which I donít recall doing very well since omg Chad Campbell @ 40/1 back in 2003 . . . I feel comfortable with my play on Tiger, and I feel there is no way I can give a shout to Matsuyama, but after that I feel Iím just guessing among a large number of other players with legitimate claims, including Horschel . . . I donít really think Bubba is going to be your winner, but Iím just looking for a betting interest on someone at more than 28/1, and then I decided I like the look of Cameron Smith better. Finally, just on the basis of wanting at least one more play, Iíll let Webb Simpson carry my cash even though Iíve been wrong on him both good and bad for at least two seasons.

    GL
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  23. #123  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Sanford International:

    Tom Lehman(22/1) e.w.
    Billy Andrade(40/1) e.w.
    Jerry Smith(100/1) e.w.
    Rocco Mediate(110/1) e.w.
    Stephen Ames(140/1) e.w.
    - - My life in golf started when an 8 year old from Sioux Falls, South Dakota moved in as our new neighbor.

    GL
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  24. #124  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Sunday:

    Horschel(+105) over Finau
    Woods(+105) over McIlroy
    - - Capping and pulling the trigger from the matchups menu to knock off the rust as "Ryder Cup practice".

    GL
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