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Thread: Fore! 2018

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  1. #1 Fore! 2018 
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    - - 2017 was easily my worst season since I started weekly golf capping (and posting, but not at this forum) with my first offshore accounts in 2001. I was modestly profitable on a cumulative basis over the years through 2015, then had a poor year in 2016 that probably consumed all of my modest profits from the prior years, and then 2017 went right down the crapper. While my capping efforts over the last few years have not matched my passionate efforts of the first 10 or 12 years, I definitely invested at least the same time and effort for the first 6 or 7 months of 2017 as I had in recent years, but the results were never there . . . Without a doubt my one big regret from 2017 was not wagering on Andres Romero at 300+/1 at the BMW International after I had wagered on him in the Top Euro market the week before at the U.S. Open and been reasonably satisfied with his play as I was tracking him closely.

    - - I fortunately cut back on my always modest wagers as the losses mounted in 2017 (I started with “usual” bets of $8 x 2 for e.w. wagers way back when, peaked with “usual” wagers of $12 x 2 e.w. around 2007, and last year my usual wagers of $6 x 2 e.w. had been cut back to mostly $5 x 2 and then $4 x 2 e.w. wagers by the end of the season). This week I am back starting with $6 x 2 e.w. wagers . . . However, my big mistake last year was never really cutting back on my usual number of weekly plays of about 5 to 9 players per fully invested event, even though I was seeing almost no returns, and not even “threatening” very often. This year I will be scaling back on my number of plays per event until I am at least getting some encouraging close calls. So it really won’t be possible to have as bad of a season this year as last year . . . And as of now I plan on investing at least a little more time and effort on a weekly basis, which will certainly help, provided I do it . . . Although not really successful, I did “threaten” most "consistently" last year with a small number of in-running wagers (not all of which I posted), so by cutting back on my pre-event wagers I can justify a few more wagers in that area

    - - I also get lots of enjoyment from frequently sharing any ANGLES or INFORMATION behind my wagering (per my write-ups on my NCAA Bowl game wagers), but that has been tapering off hugely in the golf forums the last two years as my plays have generally sucked and lacked conviction.

    - - Anyway, three plays for this week, none very original:

    Rickie Fowler(7/1) e.w.
    - - Everything I know would seem to suit for his making a quick start to his calendar year 2018 campaign, stylishly unveiling Puma's Aloha collection.

    Pat Perez(28/1) e.w.
    - - Gotta go back to November of 2016 for my most recent “BIG win” at 125/1 on Mr. Pat, and while I am ruling out plays this week on any “first-timers”, he was strong here last year, which IMO makes some sense based on his strengths.

    Mark Leishman(20/1) e.w.
    - - Has the game (but not yet a closing pedigree) for what I refer to as “big boy” courses that usually host big events, and my couple of prior wins with Ogilvy in this event essentially forms 1/2 the basis of a strong history of Aussies at Kapalua in January.

    (The forum was offline for the last 1/2 hour or I would have posted sooner . . . this time.)

    Cheers all around!

    GL
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  2. #2  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Kyle Stanley(40/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
    - - Thatís my value play after immersing myself in a full day of golf coverage. I thought the Clemson alumnus played well with Georgia alum Brian Harman (and he plays today with Georgia alum and South Carolina native Kevin Kisner), and I think he has prepared well so that he expects to play well, now we will see how he holds up as the trade winds continue to blow, but I think he holds up well from his T7 position.

    GL
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  3. #3  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Outrights YTD: 2-2 (-0.94*)

    - - Even though I was almost in the frame with 3 of my 4 selections last week, I am still keeping the plays below normal levels (I didnít commit to anything on the European Tour). I can see that will allow for ample in-running opportunities if something appeals, especially since I'm not taken with any of my initial picks.

    Charles Howell(40/1) e.w.
    - - If he notches a win this season heíll be on track for a career year, and I could see that happening, and happening here. If not, thereís somewhat decent value on the e.w. portion.

    Zach Johnson(33/1) e.w.
    - - A proven winner with very much a horses for courses profile, and this is not surprisingly one of his courses. But I was reading on his twitter that he was feeling sick as a dog (more or less) over the holidays, so Iím really not expecting him to be as prepared as I otherwise would expect to start the calendar year campaign in a Ryder Cup year.

    Jimmy Walker(100/1) e.w.
    - - During the Sunday coverage at Kapalua, Hawaii resident Mark Rolfing noted that the trade winds were expected to continue (although diminished) through the following week, which would be ďfor the first time in several yearsĒ for playing Waialae with the prevailing trade winds. Not knowing the exact reference to what wind during what years, I looked at the results in 2015 and 2014, and Walker was the winner both years. Although he is certainly still battling the very difficult ands lingering effects of Lyme disease, this price seemed worth a venture.

    Chez Reavie(50/1) e.w.
    - - I believe 13 of the past 19 champions at Waialae played at Kapalua the prior week, and that is not surprising given the quality of the field at the T of C. Nevertheless, I am rarely a proponent of backing players keeping their best swings when coming off a particularly breezy 72 holes during the prior week, and that would probably hold even more so for me if itís early in the year and/or thereís a decent chance of breezy conditions to work through at a new venue the following week (and there are 5 places to pay, not just the winner). So I went poking around mainly for choices that didnít play last week, and this is where my dart landed over William McGirt, Russell Knox, Sean OíHair . . . or Jason Dufner.

    Colt Knost(500/1) e.w.
    - - One more at big odds.

    GL
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  4. #4  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Abu Dhabi:

    Outrights:

    Tyrell Hatton(25/1) e.w.
    Ian Poulter(70/1) e.w.

    GL
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  5. #5  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Career Builder:

    Outrights:

    Brandt Snedeker(50/1) e.w.
    David Lingmerth(66/1) e.w.
    Chris Kirk(50/1) e.w.
    Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w.
    Lucas Glover(66/1) e.w.
    John Peterson(250/1) e.w.
    Bud Cauley(45/1) e.w.

    GL
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  6. #6  
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    Abu Dhabi:

    In-running:

    Andrew Johnston(100/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5) e.w.

    GL
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  7. #7  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Relying on the 20+mph winds to persist, I like these two matchups because of a sharper short game paired IMO with no disadvantages in ball flighting:

    Sunday:

    Pieters(-125) over Fisher
    D.Johnson(-200) over Grace

    GL
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  8. #8  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Dropping D.Johnson(-200) over Grace as too expensive.

    GL
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  9. #9  
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    Dubai:

    Outrights:

    Andrew Johnston(90/1) e.w.
    Andy Sullivan(80/1) e.w.
    Ross Fisher(25/1) e.w.
    Robert Rock(200/1) e.w.
    Henrik Stenson(11/1) e.w.

    GL
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  10. #10  
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    Stephen Gallacher(80/1) e.w.

    GL
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  11. #11  
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    Farmers:

    Outrights:

    Lucas Glover(100/1) e.w.
    Jhonattan Vegas(45/1) e.w.
    Jason Day(22/1) e.w.
    J.J. Spaun(100/1) e.w.
    Kyle Stanley(50/1) e.w.
    Charles Howell(40/1) e.w.

    - - Seems like Tiger is not the only one with skinny odds that is requiring a leap of faith; Day and Rahm seem possible value exceptions. It was right here 12 years ago that I pegged Glover for a big future that has been what it's been . . . A Farmer's Insurance Agency is a new tenant in our building, I'm going to rub their sign for luck.

    GL
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  12. #12  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Farmers:

    Will Zalatoris(200/1 e.w.) First Round Leader @ North Course

    GL
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  13. #13  
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    Maybank:

    Outrights:

    Bernd Wiesberger(16/1) e.w.
    - -

    Kiradech Aphibarnrat(30/1) e.w.
    - -

    Shubhankar Sharma(40/1) e.w.
    - -

    S.S.P. Chowrasia(200/1) e.w.
    - -

    Shaun Norris(45/1) e.w.
    - -

    Scott Hend(70/1) e.w.
    - -

    GL
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  14. #14  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Outrights YTD: 3-28 (-13.19*)
    Matchups YTD: 0-1 (-1.25*)

    Waste Management:

    Outrights:

    J.B. Holmes(45/1) e.w.
    - - I was liking this play as soon as J.B.ís name started climbing the leaderboard on Saturday at Torrey Pines . . . I think any overblown criticism from the whole world about the 72nd hole last week, and the support he certainly received from many of those closest to him, makes it even more likely J.B. plays well enough starting today to get in the mix here . . . but it adds some stressful variables on how things might finally play out.

    Webb Simpson(40/1) e.w.
    - - So at this point of the West Coast swing my first preference in finding plays outside the market leaders is trying to identify players that have shown a spark of form, to go along with some confirmed or maybe just suspected extra something in motivation (i.e., rebuilding after the anchor putting ban), but not fearing they are already overextended for some inevitable down turn. When I saw Webbís record at the Phoenix bash he ticked just about every box for me.

    Ryan Palmer (66/1) e.w.
    - - Iím not thrilled that itís his 4th straight event after he held the lead for so much of last week, but I heard enough over two days about how much he likes where ďhis game is atĒ to take a flyer because of his excellent record here.

    Alex Noren(40/1) e.w.
    - - Can certainly be a crazy place when you are making your debut, but Iíve been happy backing Noren in the past in Europe when it comes to him sustaining his very best form.

    Adam Hadwin(70/1) e.w.
    - - I did my due diligence this week in research, and in recent weeks in tracking what's happening, and on that basis Iím pulling the trigger on Hadwin over Berger, Chappell, Hahn and, wait for it . . . Sabbatini.

    Lucas Glover(125/1) e.w.
    - - Not an event I feel good about for Glover, and itís reflected in his price.

    Hunter Mahan(250/1) e.w.
    - - IMO he seems trending toward something of a revival, and even though itís still too early, this former champ makes the cut for my last slot over former champ Mickelson.

    GL
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  15. #15  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    In-running:

    Alex Noren(80/1)(1/4 for 1,2,3) e.w.
    - - I'm pulling for Rickie or Phil and no one else, but after I landed Sharma with his 62 in Malaysia, I'll try for something more. Expecting some number from Noren that climbs the leaderboard, these odds seem fair on something special in the 60's.

    GL
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  16. #16  
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    World Super 6 Perth:

    Outrights:

    Jason Scrivener(25/1) e.w.
    Andrew Johnston(33/1) e.w.
    Lucas Herbert(40/1) e.w.
    Simon Hawkes(150/1) e.w.

    GL
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  17. #17  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Outrights YTD: 4-41 (-1.19*)
    Matchups YTD: 0-1 (-1.25*)
    - - Has to be the first time in ages I’ve landed winners in back to back weeks with Day(22/1) and Sharma(40/1).


    AT&T Pebble Beach:

    Pat Perez(35/1) e.w.
    - - Pretty clear Perez is targeting this event this year, much like Chez Reavie last week; unlike Reavie, Perez carries some history here, noteworthy and/or favorable and/or otherwise.

    Maverick McNealey(150/1) e.w.
    - - I’ve already backed him a couple of times on the West Coast just on his potential, now he has a home game while playing with his family.

    Dustin Johnson(+550) e.w.
    - - Definitely worth a saver on the quest for three straight weeks.

    Paul Dunne(100/1) e.w.
    - - Might offer some value playing America’s foremost coastal golf while hopefully living large and having some fun playing in the group with the billionaire McNealey clan . . . FWIW, his last tweet on Jan 21: “Battled on every shot but just couldn't get anything going in the wind. Game is improving every day just need to put it all together. #battleon”

    Phil Mickelson(28/1) e.w.
    - - I’m not really keen on his winning chances this week, but I also felt that way last week.

    Needing to pull the trigger on a few more choices to try and keep the streak alive . . .

    Patrick Reed(40/1) e.w.
    - - No surprise if he gets going sooner rather than later in a Ryder Cup season.

    Jason Kokrak(80/1) e.w.
    - -

    J.B. Holmes(66/1) e.w.
    - - Actually love J.B. next week, and loved him last week, so I’m throwing in this week.

    GL
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  18. #18  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Oman Open:

    Outrights:

    Alexander Levy(16/1) e.w.
    Matthieu Pavon(40/1) e.w.
    Romain Wattel(50/1) e.w.
    Chase Koepka(140/1) e.w.

    GL
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  19. #19  
    Be the change you want to see in the world. BZ's Avatar
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    Good luck this week!
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  20. #20  
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    Thanks!

    GL
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  21. #21  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Outrights YTD: 7-50 (-2.50*)
    Matchups YTD: 0-1 (-1.25*)

    Genesis Open:

    Outrights:

    J.B. Holmes(80/1) e.w.
    - - I know Riviera is his favorite course on Tour, so FWIW it sure seems like the right opportunity coming at the right time.

    Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w.
    - - It’s usually a poor proposition to like the chances of a 47 year old sustaining elite form for three straight weeks.

    Alex Noren(40/1) e.w.
    - -

    Patrick Rodgers(110/1) e.w.
    - - Showing better than what his odds were, still showing at least this well.

    Jimmy Walker(80/1) e.w.
    - - Can he build on something? Worth a shot.

    Marc Leishman(40/1) e.w.
    - - Need an Aussie or a South African, gets my cash over Grace.

    Paul Casey(25/1) e.w.
    - - It’s ridiculous how he always finds his way over the course of 72 holes to piss away strokes (even while close to his best) instead of salvaging strokes. Which makes these odds ridiculous . . . Leaving off Howell and O’Hair.

    Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w.
    - -

    GL
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  22. #22  
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    Chubb Classic:

    Outrights:

    Steve Flesch(90/1) e.w.
    - - His game looked tidy and his expectations seemed justifiably high from what I heard and saw, and trusting my conclusions from my viewing has always been my most successful angle.

    Rocco Mediate(200/1) e.w.
    - - Seems too big to me, or not after taking a cursory look at his results.

    GL
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  23. #23  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Qatar Masters:

    Outrights:

    Chris Wood(20/1) e.w.
    - -

    Stephen Gallacher(55/1) e.w.
    - -

    Going with some longshots . . .

    Sam Brazel(100/1) e.w.
    - - Decent run of form.

    Jamie Donaldson(100/1) e.w.
    - - Perhaps fully emerging from a clueless patch.

    Thomas Bjorn(150/1) e.w.
    - - Has seemed to me that getting paired with the captain in the early rounds has not gone well. But maybe itís the spot where the captain reaches the peak of his early season . . . T14th.

    Chase Koepka(175/1) e.w.
    - - He was a par making machine last week, whatever that entailed, hopefully some grit and a lid on the cup. This week will not be more of the same, hopefully things turn favorable.

    Felipe Aguilar(200/1) e.w.
    - - For no really good reason, this longshot edges out other multiple longshots..

    GL
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  24. #24  
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    Honda:

    Outrights:

    Rory McIlroy(11/1) e.w.
    Jason Dufner(50/1) e.w.
    Webb Simpson(66/1) e.w.
    Lucas Glover(100/1) e.w.
    Sam Saunders(110/1) e.w.
    Billy Horschel(110/1) e.w.
    Retief Goosen(250/1) e.w.


    GL
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  25. #25  
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