Forum: International and Other Sports Forum - Discuss betting important International sports such as tennis and golf etc. with sharp handicappers from around the world.

Thread: Fore! 2018

  1. #1 Fore! 2018 
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    - - 2017 was easily my worst season since I started weekly golf capping (and posting, but not at this forum) with my first offshore accounts in 2001. I was modestly profitable on a cumulative basis over the years through 2015, then had a poor year in 2016 that probably consumed all of my modest profits from the prior years, and then 2017 went right down the crapper. While my capping efforts over the last few years have not matched my passionate efforts of the first 10 or 12 years, I definitely invested at least the same time and effort for the first 6 or 7 months of 2017 as I had in recent years, but the results were never there . . . Without a doubt my one big regret from 2017 was not wagering on Andres Romero at 300+/1 at the BMW International after I had wagered on him in the Top Euro market the week before at the U.S. Open and been reasonably satisfied with his play as I was tracking him closely.

    - - I fortunately cut back on my always modest wagers as the losses mounted in 2017 (I started with “usual” bets of $8 x 2 for e.w. wagers way back when, peaked with “usual” wagers of $12 x 2 e.w. around 2007, and last year my usual wagers of $6 x 2 e.w. had been cut back to mostly $5 x 2 and then $4 x 2 e.w. wagers by the end of the season). This week I am back starting with $6 x 2 e.w. wagers . . . However, my big mistake last year was never really cutting back on my usual number of weekly plays of about 5 to 9 players per fully invested event, even though I was seeing almost no returns, and not even “threatening” very often. This year I will be scaling back on my number of plays per event until I am at least getting some encouraging close calls. So it really won’t be possible to have as bad of a season this year as last year . . . And as of now I plan on investing at least a little more time and effort on a weekly basis, which will certainly help, provided I do it . . . Although not really successful, I did “threaten” most "consistently" last year with a small number of in-running wagers (not all of which I posted), so by cutting back on my pre-event wagers I can justify a few more wagers in that area

    - - I also get lots of enjoyment from frequently sharing any ANGLES or INFORMATION behind my wagering (per my write-ups on my NCAA Bowl game wagers), but that has been tapering off hugely in the golf forums the last two years as my plays have generally sucked and lacked conviction.

    - - Anyway, three plays for this week, none very original:

    Rickie Fowler(7/1) e.w.
    - - Everything I know would seem to suit for his making a quick start to his calendar year 2018 campaign, stylishly unveiling Puma's Aloha collection.

    Pat Perez(28/1) e.w.
    - - Gotta go back to November of 2016 for my most recent “BIG win” at 125/1 on Mr. Pat, and while I am ruling out plays this week on any “first-timers”, he was strong here last year, which IMO makes some sense based on his strengths.

    Mark Leishman(20/1) e.w.
    - - Has the game (but not yet a closing pedigree) for what I refer to as “big boy” courses that usually host big events, and my couple of prior wins with Ogilvy in this event essentially forms 1/2 the basis of a strong history of Aussies at Kapalua in January.

    (The forum was offline for the last 1/2 hour or I would have posted sooner . . . this time.)

    Cheers all around!

    GL
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  2. #2  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Kyle Stanley(40/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
    - - Thatís my value play after immersing myself in a full day of golf coverage. I thought the Clemson alumnus played well with Georgia alum Brian Harman (and he plays today with Georgia alum and South Carolina native Kevin Kisner), and I think he has prepared well so that he expects to play well, now we will see how he holds up as the trade winds continue to blow, but I think he holds up well from his T7 position.

    GL
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  3. #3  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Outrights YTD: 2-2 (-0.94*)

    - - Even though I was almost in the frame with 3 of my 4 selections last week, I am still keeping the plays below normal levels (I didnít commit to anything on the European Tour). I can see that will allow for ample in-running opportunities if something appeals, especially since I'm not taken with any of my initial picks.

    Charles Howell(40/1) e.w.
    - - If he notches a win this season heíll be on track for a career year, and I could see that happening, and happening here. If not, thereís somewhat decent value on the e.w. portion.

    Zach Johnson(33/1) e.w.
    - - A proven winner with very much a horses for courses profile, and this is not surprisingly one of his courses. But I was reading on his twitter that he was feeling sick as a dog (more or less) over the holidays, so Iím really not expecting him to be as prepared as I otherwise would expect to start the calendar year campaign in a Ryder Cup year.

    Jimmy Walker(100/1) e.w.
    - - During the Sunday coverage at Kapalua, Hawaii resident Mark Rolfing noted that the trade winds were expected to continue (although diminished) through the following week, which would be ďfor the first time in several yearsĒ for playing Waialae with the prevailing trade winds. Not knowing the exact reference to what wind during what years, I looked at the results in 2015 and 2014, and Walker was the winner both years. Although he is certainly still battling the very difficult ands lingering effects of Lyme disease, this price seemed worth a venture.

    Chez Reavie(50/1) e.w.
    - - I believe 13 of the past 19 champions at Waialae played at Kapalua the prior week, and that is not surprising given the quality of the field at the T of C. Nevertheless, I am rarely a proponent of backing players keeping their best swings when coming off a particularly breezy 72 holes during the prior week, and that would probably hold even more so for me if itís early in the year and/or thereís a decent chance of breezy conditions to work through at a new venue the following week (and there are 5 places to pay, not just the winner). So I went poking around mainly for choices that didnít play last week, and this is where my dart landed over William McGirt, Russell Knox, Sean OíHair . . . or Jason Dufner.

    Colt Knost(500/1) e.w.
    - - One more at big odds.

    GL
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  4. #4  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Abu Dhabi:

    Outrights:

    Tyrell Hatton(25/1) e.w.
    Ian Poulter(70/1) e.w.

    GL
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  5. #5  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Career Builder:

    Outrights:

    Brandt Snedeker(50/1) e.w.
    David Lingmerth(66/1) e.w.
    Chris Kirk(50/1) e.w.
    Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w.
    Lucas Glover(66/1) e.w.
    John Peterson(250/1) e.w.
    Bud Cauley(45/1) e.w.

    GL
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  6. #6  
    RX Member lostinamerica's Avatar
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    Abu Dhabi:

    In-running:

    Andrew Johnston(100/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4-5) e.w.

    GL
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