Montreal faces off at home vs Tampa Bay, and the Lightening have been very impressive all year long. They lead the Atlantic Division at 29-8-2 and have rolled some very good teams. Their 60 points lead the NHL. They are on the third game of an extended road trip, and just beat Montreal in TB last week 3-1. They have recorded BTB shutouts, while the Canadiens are coming off a 4-1 drubbing at home to the Sharks.
So why on earth would we play Montreal??
Buying low and selling high is a time tested winning formula, and getting the home team here at a tag of +160 is well worth the risk. This game falls into the following situation:
- High WP Road team of over 70% (Tampa Bay) that has won 2 of the last 3.
- If the team has won the last 2 games the results are very good fading them.
- Opp has a WP of 30-40 (Montreal), mediocre at best
- Its the first half of the season - Game 47 or earlier
Thats it. There is also a Pythagorean adjustment which bolsters the results, and in this case the team (TB) is over performing.
This play takes a leap of faith, we are playing a struggling team vs an excellent team. However, thats how you find +160 home dogs and Montreal is in a spot that historically is very good.
TB may very well continue their winning ways, but at this price Montreal is clearly the value.
