How To Bet Saturday's Falcons-Rams NFL Game

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How to bet Atlanta at Los Angeles
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
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ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Saturday's game between the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday afternoon.


Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent on Los Angeles


Phil Steele

The Rams return to the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, and the Falcons led the Patriots 28-3 in the Super Bowl a season ago. You can throw out last week's games, as Atlanta was at home in a must-win situation. The Rams rested their starters and lost at home to a red-hot San Francisco team. The Rams became the first team in NFL history to go from last in the league in scoring to first in one year.

Matt Ryan's stats have dropped dramatically from 45 touchdowns and seven interceptions last season to just 18 and 11, respectively, this season. Despite those numbers, Atlanta is actually plus-47 yards per game, and the Rams are just plus-22.

The Rams' kicking has been shaky since losing Greg Zuerlein to injury, while Atlanta's Matt Bryant has hit 34 of 39 field goal attempts.

Four of Atlanta's six losses have been by five points or fewer, and they did win a key game at Seattle this season. The Rams faced five teams that made the playoffs and only once won by more than six points. I do feel the Rams are the stronger team, but I like the playoff experience of the Falcons, which should allow them to keep this matchup close.

ATS pick: Lean on Atlanta

Erin Rynning

The Rams are a great story with a sweet combination of player and coaching talent in every phase. Coach Sean McVay has pulled all the right strings this season, and resting key players last week should prove the right move with the Falcons obviously all-out to win last week against the Panthers.

The Falcons found it difficult to duplicate last season's stellar success, while Ryan and the offense simply couldn't equal the same magic. Still, they own the back class and have the experience to make this game interesting. With the Rams almost a touchdown favorite, it's difficult to claim value for the favorite.

Pick: Pass

Warren Sharp
There is a lot to like about the Super Bowl runner-ups from last season. However, this is one of their most difficult tests of the season. The Falcons have been made underdogs just one other time over the last two years by six or more points, and it was in Seattle last season in a game they almost won. They could have an edge rushing the football, but a lot of that depends on the health of RB Devonta Freeman, who missed practice much of the week. The last month, the Rams' rushing defense ranked 31st at defending explosive runs.

But on the other side of the ball, the Rams' offense could have tremendous success, given the under-reported issues with the Falcons' defense. Atlanta's defense ranks 20th against the run and behind Todd Gurley II, the Rams have the No. 5 run offense and the No. 1 explosive-run offense. Additionally, the Rams will face a Falcons pass defense which, prior to facing Newton, ranked 32nd in pass defense over the prior month and 28th at defending explosive passes.

It will be imperative for the Rams defense to get after Ryan, but assuming they are able to live up to their No. 5 ranking on the season, I can see the Rams earning a narrow cover.

Pick: Lean Rams

Mike Clay

Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 26, Atlanta 21
The pick: Atlanta and the under -- ATL +6, 48.5
 

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