How To Bet Saturday's Titans-Chiefs NFL Game

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How to bet Tennessee-Kansas City
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
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ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Saturday's tilt between Tennessee and Kansas City.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.


Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)

Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent on Kansas City

Phil Steele

I was hoping the Titans would beat Jacksonville and make the playoffs last week, as I feel that they are the weakest of the playoff entrants and wanted to be able to bet against them. Tennessee been outgained and outscored on the year, and quarterback Marcus Mariota has just 12 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions. The Chiefs opened the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL, playing to an average game grade of 93.1. They then went into a 1-6 run where they were minus-58 yards per game, but have won four straight ATS and SU since. Even though they rested their starters last week, they still beat Denver and over the last four weeks have been plus-83 yards per game and playing at an average game grade of 94.7.

Tennessee is just 2-5 its past seven road games with the only wins versus the lowly Colts and Browns (losses by 16 points per game). Kansas City's past four home victories have all been by double digits. I'll back the home team here as Tennessee was in must-win mode in Week 17 and now travels on a short week.

ATS pick: Kansas City

Erin Rynning

The Titans offense was often slowed this year with Mariota battling numerous injuries, especially sapping his running ability. However, last week was an encouraging sign for Mariota with 10 carries for 60 yards. This is still a pedestrian defense for the Chiefs, while their lack of quarterback pressure provides a boost for the Titans. No question, the Titans defense (especially the secondary) will find it difficult to slow the Chiefs' multifaceted offense. The Titans recently allowed 402 yards to the Rams and 414 to the 49ers, so expect the Chiefs to hit on some big plays.

Pick: Over and lean Titans

Warren Sharp

The Chiefs are the No. 4 most-efficient pass offense and the No. 8 most-explosive pass offense, but their explosiveness will be tested against the Titans' pass defense, which ranks No. 1 in explosive passing this season. The issue for the Titans' defense, however, is they haven't really played strong competition. They played the easiest schedule of offenses this season. The Rams are the only other offense which ranked top 10 in explosive passing that the Titans faced this seaosn. But it is reasonable to assume the Titans will limit some of the explosiveness element. The bigger problem is the Titans' defense ranks 24th against the pass, including 29th over the last month. I expect the highly efficient pass offense of the Chiefs to be less explosive but to generate a fair amount of success. For the Titans' offense, their best bet is to stick the ball into the belly of Derrick Henry and let him run early and often. While his overall numbers were down last week, he recorded an extremely impressive 57 percent success rate on first-down runs. And the Chiefs' run defense ranks worst in the NFL, both season long as well as over the past month. The way the Chiefs can take the Titans out of their run game is with an early lead. A key edge could be running back passes for the Chiefs: the Titans rank 30th in success rate allowed against those plays and 31st in yards per attempt allowed.

Pick: Pass on spread, Chiefs in a teaser

Mike Clay

Prediction: Kansas City 27, Tennessee 19
The pick: Tennessee and the over --- TEN +8, 44.5
 

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