How all four wild-card underdogs can pull off upsets
Matt Bowen
ESPN INSDER
Heading into wild-card weekend, four NFL teams -- the Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers -- are all at least 6.5-point underdogs.
Luckily for those teams, I'm here to help them pull off upsets and advance to the divisional round. Let's look at these four games through the lens of a coach and break down three things each underdog has to do to win. Here we go:
How the Titans can upset the Chiefs
Saturday: 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN | Point spread: KC by 8.5
(Don't have ESPN? Get instant access today: ESPNInstantAccess.com)
1. Create chunk plays in the passing game with Corey Davis
Why it's important: The Titans need to script a game plan to attack a Chiefs defense that has surrendered 247 passing yards per game this season, which ranks No. 29 in the NFL. With the ability to target the big body of rookie first-round pick Davis on deep inside cuts or outside breaking routes that work away from free safety help, quarterback Marcus Mariota can pick up quick 20-yard strikes while also loosening up the run box. You want to see running back Derrick Henry pound the rock? Then move back those safeties and create some room up front for the Titans to utilize their downhill schemes.
How they can do it: With only 34 grabs for 347 yards in 11 games, Davis hasn't produced consistent numbers. When you watch the Week 16 tape against the Rams, though? Yeah, that's where Davis flashed his route running, speed and physicality after the catch. He caught six of nine targets running the backside dig, the post/stop and the corner route. He averaged 15.2 yards per catch -- with an air yard per target of 13.6 -- against the Rams. Think of intermediate routes here where Mariota can lean on his ball placement and touch. If the Titans want to steal this one on the road, Davis needs to play a big role in the game plan.
2. Use Johnathan Cyprien as a downhill thumper in the box
Why it's important: The Titans' run defense has quietly been one of the league's best. Tennessee held Leonard Fournette to 3.6 yards per carry in a Week 17 win over the Jags, and the Titans have allowed an average of only 88.8 yards rushing per game this season (No. 4 in the NFL). But can they slow down the Chiefs run game with Kareem Hunt? Since Matt Nagy took over the playcalling duties in Kansas City, Hunt's usage has exploded. Outside of a Week 17 throwaway game after the Chiefs had already clinched the AFC West, Hunt has taken on a massive workload. During Weeks 14-16, Hunt saw a whopping 78 carries. That's where Cyprien comes in as that extra defender in the box. He's physical, and the Titans can window-dress multiple ways to add the safety to the front.
How they can do it: I go back to the Week 17 tape because it shows how the Titans aligned Cyprien both against pro/reduced formations and shotgun/spread looks. In a standard eight-man front, we know Cyprien can align over the tight end or roll down late on the edge. But given the Chiefs' multiple formation looks, I really like pressing Cyprien over tight end Travis Kelce in three-wide receiver personnel while bumping the end outside. This allows Cyprien to get his hands on Kelce at the snap and play a pulling guard. Create a mess of bodies there. Given that the Titans also have to account for Kelce on middle-of-the-field routes, challenging the release is the best way to do it. Plus, that gives the Titans the ability to stick ball-hawk safety Kevin Byard in the post -- to overlap any deep ball to Tyreek Hill. The ultimate goal here, however, is to slow down Hunt. We know he's going to see another high-volume day. So limit those yards with Cyprien in the front.
3. Get Mariota on the move
Why it's important: Mariota hasn't had a great third season in the NFL. He has only 13 touchdown passes, and he has thrown 15 interceptions. But over the past three weeks, Mariota has completed 61.3 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and a pick. And his Total QBR during that stretch sits at 66.4 (No. 7 in the NFL). Now, those numbers don't jump off the stat sheet, but the tape tells me he's playing with better vision and using his legs to make off-schedule plays. That's why I would get Mariota on the move Saturday. Put some stress on the Chiefs' defense and cater to Mariota's skill set on the edge.
How they can do it: The easiest way is on sprint and boot concepts, giving Mariota a run/pass option once he breaks contain. Dump the ball or hit the crosser on boot and target the deep-7 cut on the sprint. Plus, with his ability to pull the ball down -- he has 13 carries for 84 yards in his past two games -- Mariota can quickly pick up the sticks.
Given that we can expect some QB-designed runs in the Titans' game plan -- they have run nine in the past three games -- putting the ball in Mariota's hands on schemes that maximize his ability is the best play. Yes, Mariota has looked good throwing the ball from the pocket over these past three games. But the Titans need to highlight Mariota's unique traits as much as possible. And he has to deliver when those movement passes are dialed up.
How the Falcons can upset the Rams
Saturday: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: LAR by 6.5
1. Target Julio Jones in the red zone
Why it's important: Jones caught just five passes inside the 20-yard line in the regular season. That's bad football. In fact, Jones had 99 snaps in the red zone and was targeted only 18 times. Look, this guy is one of the most feared wide receivers on the planet when we talk about size, speed and, in the red zone, ridiculous matchup ability. Too big, too strong. But instead of asking Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan to simply force the ball to Jones or toss up 50/50 throws on the fade, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian can script those matchups for Jones based on alignment versus the Rams' secondary.
How they can do it: Put Jones in the slot. Yeah, we aren't talking about drawing up a new game plan here. Instead, bump Jones inside to take advantage of his freakish skill set. With only 27 red zone snaps from a slot alignment this season -- and just one grab on four targets while in the slot -- the Falcons need to create more formation flexibility. This gives Ryan the ability to look up Jones on high-percentage concepts. Throw the seam, create pick situations off inside crossers, or run option routes. Ryan can then manipulate the Rams' zone coverages inside the 20 while also forcing L.A. to play the matchup. Does cornerback Trumaine Johnson travel with Jones inside? Only one way to find out. If the Falcons want to advance, field goals won't cut it. They need touchdowns. And Julio needs the rock. Bump him down to the slot. Let's go, Sark. Get it done.`
2. Try to steal one against Jared Goff
Why it's important: Limiting Todd Gurley is at the top of the list for the Falcons' defense. We know that. Gotta tackle there and win with speed on the edge. But Goff's second-year jump under coach Sean McVay is legit, so Atlanta can't just focus on the run game. The former No. 1 overall pick tossed 28 touchdown passes and threw for 3,804 yards this season. He's a smooth fit for McVay's modern offense that meshes the quick game and play-pass while creating open windows for Goff. But we also have to remember that he's still a young player, and he's making his first start in the postseason dance. The game changes in January -- it gets faster. That's why the Falcons should play with their safeties a bit and try some late rotations to get Keanu Neal lying in the weeds.
How they can do it: I'd go back to Dan Quinn's game plan from Super Bowl LI. Remember the pick-six the Falcons produced against Tom Brady? Or the inside crossing routes Atlanta took away? Show a two-high safety look and drop Neal at the snap. This is called Cover 1 "jump," and it allows Neal to rob the second level of the field. And given the amount of reduced formations the Rams run to create free releases and separation for Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins, I want Neal patrolling the inside hole. This puts the Falcons in a position to pass off routes -- with Neal as inside help -- and it also leads to turnover opportunities. And, maybe most importantly, it gives the Falcons a physical presence. Want to run an inside route? Neal will be there just waiting to drop the hammer. Boom.
3. Feature Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the passing game
Why it's important: During the Super Bowl run last season, Freeman grabbed 54 passes for 462 yards and two touchdowns with Coleman catching 27 passes for 421 yards and three scores. That was under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, and the numbers have dropped in Sarkisian's system. This season, Freeman went down to 36 receptions for 317 yards and one score, and Coleman logged 299 yards and three touchdowns on 27 receptions. Remember, in Shanahan's offense, both running backs were featured as moveable pieces in the passing game. And I think Sark can use some of those same schemes to create instant matchup ability for Atlanta on Saturday night.
How they can do it: I think we put this idea into two separate groups with concepts that generate opportunity on backfield releases and situations in which the Falcons can flex out Freeman or Coleman. Out of the backfield, create a tight split to get both running backs the ball in space. Simple throws, too, with room to run after the catch. Flexed out? Now you get the matchup to run option routes or press down the field vertically. And who walks out there with them? Is it a linebacker? A safety? That's what you want. The point here is that Freeman and Coleman can be utilized in critical game situations to move the sticks or rip off big plays as targets in the passing game.
How the Bills can upset the Jaguars
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: JAC by 9
1. Expand the game plan with Tyrod Taylor
Why it's important: The ankle injury to running back LeSean McCoy is concerning. And while McCoy could still be ready to go against a Jags run defense that has surprisingly allowed 116.3 yards rushing per game this season (No.21 in the NFL), the Bills can't simply pound the ball all day with a banged-up running back (or backup Mike Tolbert) and expect to get out of Jacksonville with a win. That's not realistic. But this is also why I'm looking at expanding the game plan around Taylor. From creative route concepts that attack the Jaguars' Cover 3 to option football, I'm going to scheme up some opportunities for the Bills' quarterback.
How they can do it: Look, throwing curl routes to Kelvin Benjamin when he's matched up against the lock-down ability of Jags cornerback Jalen Ramsey isn't going to cut it. So let's use specific concepts that attack Cover 3, the Jags' core coverage. Start with play-action pass and four verticals from a 3x1 alignment. Remove that backside cornerback and bring the tight end across the field. There's an explosive play. The same with the tight end throwback that Taylor hit for a score in Week 17 versus Miami. Boot off play-action with Nick O'Leary working back across the face of the safety. Think of flood routes to open up pockets in the coverage. Gotta have those. And don't forget about using some triple-option out of a two-back Pistol look. Taylor can slow-play that defensive end before pitching the ball on the edge. These are coverage-beaters against Jacksonville that highlight Taylor's ability to throw the deep ball and move in the pocket.
2. Protect the ball
Why it's important: I know this is coach-speak but turning the ball over against this Jags defense leads to points. Jacksonville scored 137 points off turnovers this season. That's No.1 in the league. With speed at the linebacker position and the ball skills of cornerbacks Ramsey (four interceptions) and A.J. Bouye (six interceptions), the Jags can swallow up throwing windows and break on the rock. Throwing picks or putting the ball on the ground will send the Bills home for the offseason.
How they can do it: Taylor has tossed only four interceptions in 2017. And that's the best in the league. But against Jacksonville, the stakes are higher. That's why I talked about those specific route concepts above. Buffalo has to stay away from a high percentage of isolation routes to Benjamin. I expect Ramsey to get that matchup and throwing the comeback is risky. Ramsey can be physical with Benjamin, and I don't see there being a lot of separation at the top of the route. Another thing is middle-of-the-field throws. When the Jags drop their linebackers in zone coverage, Taylor has to move them with his eyes. That's how quarterbacks create those inside throwing windows. With the running game? That's ball security. Simple as that. But given the style of ballgame I am anticipating, where field position and points are at a premium, Buffalo can't turn over the rock if it wants to advance to the divisional round.
3. Limit Leonard Fournette's production on the ground
Why it's important: With two games of at least 28 carries this season and 81 carries over the past four weeks, Fournette is going to see the ball a lot on Sunday. And he could get the rock even more after Blake Bortles' rough outing in Week 17. That's a problem for a Bills defense that ranked No. 29 against the run this season, giving up an average of 124.6 yards per game. If the Bills can win on early down-and-distance situations, however, they can play coverage on third down and force Bortles to make plays.
How they can do it: Going back to the Week 12 tape in the win over the Chiefs, I think there is a solution to at least limit Fournette. In that matchup, Buffalo rolled strong safety Jordan Poyer down weak into the box. Some teams will run that out of an under front and play Cover 10 (the safety plays the first back weak). This allows the Bills to create an eight-man front with Poyer cleaning up the backside "A" gap. Play cutback and hit the gap as an unblocked defender. Another option is to use first- and second-down run blitzes. Both zone and man schemes with Poyer scraping off the edge or the linebackers hitting the inside gaps. The point here is that Buffalo has to be aggressive, gap-sound and attack up front. If they don't, I expect the Jags to ride Fournette to a win.
How the Panthers can upset the Saints
Sunday: 4:40 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: NO by 7
1. Put the ball in Cam Newton's hands
Why it's important: Over the past four weeks, excluding kneel-downs, Newton has carried the ball 32 times on designed-QB runs for 178 yards. That's an average of eight designed runs a game, a boost from the five carries that Newton saw on average per game during the first 12 weeks of the season on those scripted runs. And when Newton is a consistent threat to carry the ball, the Panthers are much tougher to defend. On the edge, or downhill with his monster frame, the QB run game needs to be at the top of the call sheet if the Panthers want to grab a win in New Orleans.
How they can do it: Start with the zone-read. That's as basic as it gets in the QB run game with rookie running back Christian McCaffrey offset next to Newton in a shotgun alignment. This allows Newton to read the defensive end and creates a natural lane for McCaffrey to bend the ball back if the end widens. But let's not forget about the inside-the-tackle runs that cater to Newton because of his rare size and body control. That gives the Panthers the ability to run QB Lead Draw, QB Counter and QB Power. Plus, on the goal line, Cam is almost unstoppable when the guard pulls and the Panthers kick out on the edge. Run through contact for six or leap over the top for the score. Newton is still the best goal line running back in the NFL. And it gives the Panthers an extra blocker at the point of attack. Regardless of the scheme called, putting the ball in Newton's hands on designed runs is going to impact the Saints' game plan.
2. Take away Alvin Kamara in the passing game
Why it's important: From the perspective of the Panthers, finding the right matchup to take Kamara out of the route tree is critical to slowing down the Saints. Kamara caught 81 passes for 826 yards with five scores this season. With the change-of-direction skills to shake linebackers in coverage and the formation flexibility to align as a receiver, he is a chess piece for the New Orleans offense. Kamara caught 20 of 26 passes from the slot in 2017, plus five of nine targets from a wide alignment. You want true versatility? There it is. Kamara is a legit talent.
How they can do it: Let's start with the matchups. Rolling down safety Kurt Coleman when Kamara is flexed out or matching a linebacker in coverage to the rookie when he releases from the backfield isn't going to pass the test. The Saints exposed those looks back in their Week 13 win over the Panthers. So let's change it. When Kamara is in the game in obvious passing situations, I would use more nickel personnel to get a slot cornerback on him. And when it comes to critical game situations, the Panthers should play some combination coverages verses Kamara. Use a linebacker and a safety. Think of a bracket style of coverage with the linebacker sitting hard to the outside and the safety rolled down. This allows the Panthers to take away that option/angle route in the Saints' playbook. And it prevents Kamara from getting another opportunity to victimize the defense in a win-or-go home situation for Carolina.
3. Feed Greg Olsen in the passing game
Why it's important: With Olsen healthy, Newton has a prime target on high-percentage, middle-of-the field throws. That's key against Dennis Allen's aggressive Saints defense where Olsen can be a quick outlet against pressure. The Panthers can create matchups to use the tight end's skill set. With the ability to win at all three levels of the field, Olsen's production has to be there for the Panthers' passing attack to click this weekend.
How they can do it: I went back to the tape of the Panthers' Week 15 win over the Packers when Olsen caught 9 of 12 targets for 116 yards and a score. And while we can't compare the Green Bay defense to the talent level in New Orleans, I was more focused on Olsen's alignment and the Carolina scheme. The Panthers moved Olsen all over the field. That allowed him to win in the quick game, catch the ball off run-pass options, work as the backside "X" receiver and run the inside seam. It was the variety of formations that jumped off the tape. And I think Olsen needs to have the same type of impact within the game plan on Sunday. Go to work on those Saints safeties and see at least eight targets. Olsen needs a big role in this one. And Cam needs to get him the ball.
Matt Bowen
ESPN INSDER
Heading into wild-card weekend, four NFL teams -- the Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers -- are all at least 6.5-point underdogs.
Luckily for those teams, I'm here to help them pull off upsets and advance to the divisional round. Let's look at these four games through the lens of a coach and break down three things each underdog has to do to win. Here we go:
How the Titans can upset the Chiefs
Saturday: 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN | Point spread: KC by 8.5
(Don't have ESPN? Get instant access today: ESPNInstantAccess.com)
1. Create chunk plays in the passing game with Corey Davis
Why it's important: The Titans need to script a game plan to attack a Chiefs defense that has surrendered 247 passing yards per game this season, which ranks No. 29 in the NFL. With the ability to target the big body of rookie first-round pick Davis on deep inside cuts or outside breaking routes that work away from free safety help, quarterback Marcus Mariota can pick up quick 20-yard strikes while also loosening up the run box. You want to see running back Derrick Henry pound the rock? Then move back those safeties and create some room up front for the Titans to utilize their downhill schemes.
How they can do it: With only 34 grabs for 347 yards in 11 games, Davis hasn't produced consistent numbers. When you watch the Week 16 tape against the Rams, though? Yeah, that's where Davis flashed his route running, speed and physicality after the catch. He caught six of nine targets running the backside dig, the post/stop and the corner route. He averaged 15.2 yards per catch -- with an air yard per target of 13.6 -- against the Rams. Think of intermediate routes here where Mariota can lean on his ball placement and touch. If the Titans want to steal this one on the road, Davis needs to play a big role in the game plan.
2. Use Johnathan Cyprien as a downhill thumper in the box
Why it's important: The Titans' run defense has quietly been one of the league's best. Tennessee held Leonard Fournette to 3.6 yards per carry in a Week 17 win over the Jags, and the Titans have allowed an average of only 88.8 yards rushing per game this season (No. 4 in the NFL). But can they slow down the Chiefs run game with Kareem Hunt? Since Matt Nagy took over the playcalling duties in Kansas City, Hunt's usage has exploded. Outside of a Week 17 throwaway game after the Chiefs had already clinched the AFC West, Hunt has taken on a massive workload. During Weeks 14-16, Hunt saw a whopping 78 carries. That's where Cyprien comes in as that extra defender in the box. He's physical, and the Titans can window-dress multiple ways to add the safety to the front.
How they can do it: I go back to the Week 17 tape because it shows how the Titans aligned Cyprien both against pro/reduced formations and shotgun/spread looks. In a standard eight-man front, we know Cyprien can align over the tight end or roll down late on the edge. But given the Chiefs' multiple formation looks, I really like pressing Cyprien over tight end Travis Kelce in three-wide receiver personnel while bumping the end outside. This allows Cyprien to get his hands on Kelce at the snap and play a pulling guard. Create a mess of bodies there. Given that the Titans also have to account for Kelce on middle-of-the-field routes, challenging the release is the best way to do it. Plus, that gives the Titans the ability to stick ball-hawk safety Kevin Byard in the post -- to overlap any deep ball to Tyreek Hill. The ultimate goal here, however, is to slow down Hunt. We know he's going to see another high-volume day. So limit those yards with Cyprien in the front.
3. Get Mariota on the move
Why it's important: Mariota hasn't had a great third season in the NFL. He has only 13 touchdown passes, and he has thrown 15 interceptions. But over the past three weeks, Mariota has completed 61.3 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and a pick. And his Total QBR during that stretch sits at 66.4 (No. 7 in the NFL). Now, those numbers don't jump off the stat sheet, but the tape tells me he's playing with better vision and using his legs to make off-schedule plays. That's why I would get Mariota on the move Saturday. Put some stress on the Chiefs' defense and cater to Mariota's skill set on the edge.
How they can do it: The easiest way is on sprint and boot concepts, giving Mariota a run/pass option once he breaks contain. Dump the ball or hit the crosser on boot and target the deep-7 cut on the sprint. Plus, with his ability to pull the ball down -- he has 13 carries for 84 yards in his past two games -- Mariota can quickly pick up the sticks.
Given that we can expect some QB-designed runs in the Titans' game plan -- they have run nine in the past three games -- putting the ball in Mariota's hands on schemes that maximize his ability is the best play. Yes, Mariota has looked good throwing the ball from the pocket over these past three games. But the Titans need to highlight Mariota's unique traits as much as possible. And he has to deliver when those movement passes are dialed up.
How the Falcons can upset the Rams
Saturday: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: LAR by 6.5
1. Target Julio Jones in the red zone
Why it's important: Jones caught just five passes inside the 20-yard line in the regular season. That's bad football. In fact, Jones had 99 snaps in the red zone and was targeted only 18 times. Look, this guy is one of the most feared wide receivers on the planet when we talk about size, speed and, in the red zone, ridiculous matchup ability. Too big, too strong. But instead of asking Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan to simply force the ball to Jones or toss up 50/50 throws on the fade, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian can script those matchups for Jones based on alignment versus the Rams' secondary.
How they can do it: Put Jones in the slot. Yeah, we aren't talking about drawing up a new game plan here. Instead, bump Jones inside to take advantage of his freakish skill set. With only 27 red zone snaps from a slot alignment this season -- and just one grab on four targets while in the slot -- the Falcons need to create more formation flexibility. This gives Ryan the ability to look up Jones on high-percentage concepts. Throw the seam, create pick situations off inside crossers, or run option routes. Ryan can then manipulate the Rams' zone coverages inside the 20 while also forcing L.A. to play the matchup. Does cornerback Trumaine Johnson travel with Jones inside? Only one way to find out. If the Falcons want to advance, field goals won't cut it. They need touchdowns. And Julio needs the rock. Bump him down to the slot. Let's go, Sark. Get it done.`
2. Try to steal one against Jared Goff
Why it's important: Limiting Todd Gurley is at the top of the list for the Falcons' defense. We know that. Gotta tackle there and win with speed on the edge. But Goff's second-year jump under coach Sean McVay is legit, so Atlanta can't just focus on the run game. The former No. 1 overall pick tossed 28 touchdown passes and threw for 3,804 yards this season. He's a smooth fit for McVay's modern offense that meshes the quick game and play-pass while creating open windows for Goff. But we also have to remember that he's still a young player, and he's making his first start in the postseason dance. The game changes in January -- it gets faster. That's why the Falcons should play with their safeties a bit and try some late rotations to get Keanu Neal lying in the weeds.
How they can do it: I'd go back to Dan Quinn's game plan from Super Bowl LI. Remember the pick-six the Falcons produced against Tom Brady? Or the inside crossing routes Atlanta took away? Show a two-high safety look and drop Neal at the snap. This is called Cover 1 "jump," and it allows Neal to rob the second level of the field. And given the amount of reduced formations the Rams run to create free releases and separation for Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins, I want Neal patrolling the inside hole. This puts the Falcons in a position to pass off routes -- with Neal as inside help -- and it also leads to turnover opportunities. And, maybe most importantly, it gives the Falcons a physical presence. Want to run an inside route? Neal will be there just waiting to drop the hammer. Boom.
3. Feature Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman in the passing game
Why it's important: During the Super Bowl run last season, Freeman grabbed 54 passes for 462 yards and two touchdowns with Coleman catching 27 passes for 421 yards and three scores. That was under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, and the numbers have dropped in Sarkisian's system. This season, Freeman went down to 36 receptions for 317 yards and one score, and Coleman logged 299 yards and three touchdowns on 27 receptions. Remember, in Shanahan's offense, both running backs were featured as moveable pieces in the passing game. And I think Sark can use some of those same schemes to create instant matchup ability for Atlanta on Saturday night.
How they can do it: I think we put this idea into two separate groups with concepts that generate opportunity on backfield releases and situations in which the Falcons can flex out Freeman or Coleman. Out of the backfield, create a tight split to get both running backs the ball in space. Simple throws, too, with room to run after the catch. Flexed out? Now you get the matchup to run option routes or press down the field vertically. And who walks out there with them? Is it a linebacker? A safety? That's what you want. The point here is that Freeman and Coleman can be utilized in critical game situations to move the sticks or rip off big plays as targets in the passing game.
How the Bills can upset the Jaguars
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: JAC by 9
1. Expand the game plan with Tyrod Taylor
Why it's important: The ankle injury to running back LeSean McCoy is concerning. And while McCoy could still be ready to go against a Jags run defense that has surprisingly allowed 116.3 yards rushing per game this season (No.21 in the NFL), the Bills can't simply pound the ball all day with a banged-up running back (or backup Mike Tolbert) and expect to get out of Jacksonville with a win. That's not realistic. But this is also why I'm looking at expanding the game plan around Taylor. From creative route concepts that attack the Jaguars' Cover 3 to option football, I'm going to scheme up some opportunities for the Bills' quarterback.
How they can do it: Look, throwing curl routes to Kelvin Benjamin when he's matched up against the lock-down ability of Jags cornerback Jalen Ramsey isn't going to cut it. So let's use specific concepts that attack Cover 3, the Jags' core coverage. Start with play-action pass and four verticals from a 3x1 alignment. Remove that backside cornerback and bring the tight end across the field. There's an explosive play. The same with the tight end throwback that Taylor hit for a score in Week 17 versus Miami. Boot off play-action with Nick O'Leary working back across the face of the safety. Think of flood routes to open up pockets in the coverage. Gotta have those. And don't forget about using some triple-option out of a two-back Pistol look. Taylor can slow-play that defensive end before pitching the ball on the edge. These are coverage-beaters against Jacksonville that highlight Taylor's ability to throw the deep ball and move in the pocket.
2. Protect the ball
Why it's important: I know this is coach-speak but turning the ball over against this Jags defense leads to points. Jacksonville scored 137 points off turnovers this season. That's No.1 in the league. With speed at the linebacker position and the ball skills of cornerbacks Ramsey (four interceptions) and A.J. Bouye (six interceptions), the Jags can swallow up throwing windows and break on the rock. Throwing picks or putting the ball on the ground will send the Bills home for the offseason.
How they can do it: Taylor has tossed only four interceptions in 2017. And that's the best in the league. But against Jacksonville, the stakes are higher. That's why I talked about those specific route concepts above. Buffalo has to stay away from a high percentage of isolation routes to Benjamin. I expect Ramsey to get that matchup and throwing the comeback is risky. Ramsey can be physical with Benjamin, and I don't see there being a lot of separation at the top of the route. Another thing is middle-of-the-field throws. When the Jags drop their linebackers in zone coverage, Taylor has to move them with his eyes. That's how quarterbacks create those inside throwing windows. With the running game? That's ball security. Simple as that. But given the style of ballgame I am anticipating, where field position and points are at a premium, Buffalo can't turn over the rock if it wants to advance to the divisional round.
3. Limit Leonard Fournette's production on the ground
Why it's important: With two games of at least 28 carries this season and 81 carries over the past four weeks, Fournette is going to see the ball a lot on Sunday. And he could get the rock even more after Blake Bortles' rough outing in Week 17. That's a problem for a Bills defense that ranked No. 29 against the run this season, giving up an average of 124.6 yards per game. If the Bills can win on early down-and-distance situations, however, they can play coverage on third down and force Bortles to make plays.
How they can do it: Going back to the Week 12 tape in the win over the Chiefs, I think there is a solution to at least limit Fournette. In that matchup, Buffalo rolled strong safety Jordan Poyer down weak into the box. Some teams will run that out of an under front and play Cover 10 (the safety plays the first back weak). This allows the Bills to create an eight-man front with Poyer cleaning up the backside "A" gap. Play cutback and hit the gap as an unblocked defender. Another option is to use first- and second-down run blitzes. Both zone and man schemes with Poyer scraping off the edge or the linebackers hitting the inside gaps. The point here is that Buffalo has to be aggressive, gap-sound and attack up front. If they don't, I expect the Jags to ride Fournette to a win.
How the Panthers can upset the Saints
Sunday: 4:40 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: NO by 7
1. Put the ball in Cam Newton's hands
Why it's important: Over the past four weeks, excluding kneel-downs, Newton has carried the ball 32 times on designed-QB runs for 178 yards. That's an average of eight designed runs a game, a boost from the five carries that Newton saw on average per game during the first 12 weeks of the season on those scripted runs. And when Newton is a consistent threat to carry the ball, the Panthers are much tougher to defend. On the edge, or downhill with his monster frame, the QB run game needs to be at the top of the call sheet if the Panthers want to grab a win in New Orleans.
How they can do it: Start with the zone-read. That's as basic as it gets in the QB run game with rookie running back Christian McCaffrey offset next to Newton in a shotgun alignment. This allows Newton to read the defensive end and creates a natural lane for McCaffrey to bend the ball back if the end widens. But let's not forget about the inside-the-tackle runs that cater to Newton because of his rare size and body control. That gives the Panthers the ability to run QB Lead Draw, QB Counter and QB Power. Plus, on the goal line, Cam is almost unstoppable when the guard pulls and the Panthers kick out on the edge. Run through contact for six or leap over the top for the score. Newton is still the best goal line running back in the NFL. And it gives the Panthers an extra blocker at the point of attack. Regardless of the scheme called, putting the ball in Newton's hands on designed runs is going to impact the Saints' game plan.
2. Take away Alvin Kamara in the passing game
Why it's important: From the perspective of the Panthers, finding the right matchup to take Kamara out of the route tree is critical to slowing down the Saints. Kamara caught 81 passes for 826 yards with five scores this season. With the change-of-direction skills to shake linebackers in coverage and the formation flexibility to align as a receiver, he is a chess piece for the New Orleans offense. Kamara caught 20 of 26 passes from the slot in 2017, plus five of nine targets from a wide alignment. You want true versatility? There it is. Kamara is a legit talent.
How they can do it: Let's start with the matchups. Rolling down safety Kurt Coleman when Kamara is flexed out or matching a linebacker in coverage to the rookie when he releases from the backfield isn't going to pass the test. The Saints exposed those looks back in their Week 13 win over the Panthers. So let's change it. When Kamara is in the game in obvious passing situations, I would use more nickel personnel to get a slot cornerback on him. And when it comes to critical game situations, the Panthers should play some combination coverages verses Kamara. Use a linebacker and a safety. Think of a bracket style of coverage with the linebacker sitting hard to the outside and the safety rolled down. This allows the Panthers to take away that option/angle route in the Saints' playbook. And it prevents Kamara from getting another opportunity to victimize the defense in a win-or-go home situation for Carolina.
3. Feed Greg Olsen in the passing game
Why it's important: With Olsen healthy, Newton has a prime target on high-percentage, middle-of-the field throws. That's key against Dennis Allen's aggressive Saints defense where Olsen can be a quick outlet against pressure. The Panthers can create matchups to use the tight end's skill set. With the ability to win at all three levels of the field, Olsen's production has to be there for the Panthers' passing attack to click this weekend.
How they can do it: I went back to the tape of the Panthers' Week 15 win over the Packers when Olsen caught 9 of 12 targets for 116 yards and a score. And while we can't compare the Green Bay defense to the talent level in New Orleans, I was more focused on Olsen's alignment and the Carolina scheme. The Panthers moved Olsen all over the field. That allowed him to win in the quick game, catch the ball off run-pass options, work as the backside "X" receiver and run the inside seam. It was the variety of formations that jumped off the tape. And I think Olsen needs to have the same type of impact within the game plan on Sunday. Go to work on those Saints safeties and see at least eight targets. Olsen needs a big role in this one. And Cam needs to get him the ball.
