Is the high-powered Rams offense... a FRAUD??

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Just wanna share with u guys a great write up about rams offense, this is not my writing btw. All credit to sergei from other site.

"first off, let me say i'm not a Rams hater. i'm not trying to say they suck. they're an exciting young team who is going to challenge for Super Bowls over the next 8-10 years, but i don't think they're there yet. especially the offense.

i think there is an element of fraudulence to the Rams offense. they're good and they're going to get better. but i don't think it's elite. i don't think its the best offense in the league. the Rams put a lot of big #'s on crappy teams. 46 vs the Tolzein led Colts, 41 vs the Hoyer led 9ers, 51 vs a terrible Giant defense, 33 vs the Savage led Watt-less, Mercilus-less Texans, 42 vs a Seattle defense missing almost it's entire back 7.

as i was looking at the Atl/LAR game it surprised me to see that despite leading the league in pts/game the Rams offense was 10th in yards/game. heck Atlanta's supposedly broken offense was eighth in yards/game. now i'm not saying that yards is more important than points or that Atlanta's offense is better because it averages more yards, but it still seemed odd that this supposed Rams juggernaut was only 10th in yards. the #2 scoring NE offense was 1st in yards per game. you think at worst, the league leading Rams would be top 5 in yards. more yards usually correlates to more points.

as i began to look through the Rams schedule i noticed they hung a lot of big crooked #'s vs bad teams with bad QB's. they had a lot of short TD drives, 20, 30, 40 yd td drives. now this isn't cause for diminishing what they accomplished. you work with the field your defense gives you. but it got me curious. how did the Rams high-powered offense perform vs good defenses? what i found wasn't encouraging.



MY THEORY: The Rams offense padded its stats vs bad teams and decent teams who were missing key personnel. when facing good defenses at full strength the offensive numbers would be ugly.

How to prove it: so as i perused their schedule i found 5 games that the Rams played vs good defenses. now i don't wan't to be accused of cherry picking games that supported my argument, so here are the 3 steps i followed to arrive at these five games:

1) the defense had to be top 10 in either Points Allowed/Game or Yds Allowed/Game. Now i did make 1 exception: the Seahawks. the Seahawks were 11th in yds/game and tied for 13th in pts/game. why make the exception? if not for being destroyed by injuries (Chancellor, Sherman, Wright, Wagner,etc) this is clearly a top 10 defense. i know other teams suffered injuries too, but i don't think you can argue with a straight face that this wasn't a top 10 defense when healthy. so after step 1 we had Minnesota, Jacksonville, Philly, NO, Arizona (2), Dallas, and Seattle (2). that's 9 games vs good defenses.

2) the opponent's defense couldn't be missing any key players. i threw out the second Seattle game since their entire back 7 was practically out. i threw out the NO game because Lattimore and Crawley, both starting corners, were missing (no surprise Goff threw for 350+yds). i threw out the Dallas game because Sean Lee was out. and if you think that's an overreaction, go check out Dallas' stats with Lee in vs Lee out. you could argue he's the most important defensive player in the league. so now we're left with Minnesota, Jacksonville, Philly, Arizona(2) and Seattle. 6 games.

3) had to be played on North American soil. this was basically to weed out the London game vs Arizona. London games are all trash. every one was a blowout. one team never wants to be there. Arizona, much like Baltimore and Miami didn't even bother showing up for a 33-0 beatdown. the Cards can't even play on the East Coast, let alone another continent. they let Detroit hang 35 on them, Philly hung 34 on them, heck even the Tom Savage led Texans hung 31 on them when the Cards had to play outside the pacific time zone.

so to sum it up, the Rams played five games this year on North American soil, vs top 10 defenses who weren't shorthanded. vs Sea, @Ari, @Min, @Jax, vs Phi. let's see how they did.



Game #5 vs Seattle LA put up 375 yards of offense resulting in 10 pts scored. however 5 turnovers did them in. Goff was only 22-47 for 288 yds, 0td-2int. this was LA's best yardage output of the five games, but 10 pts and 5 TO's... not off to a good start.

Game #6 @ Jax on the surface going into Jax and winning 27-17 looks impressive... not really. Jax outgained them 389-249. LA's offense put up 249 yards, generated only 13 pts, and scored 1 td. 14 of their pts came off a blocked punt and a 103-yd kick return. Goff threw for 124 yds and 1td.

Game #10 @ Min LA put up 254 yds and 7 pts. Goff threw for 225 yds.

Game #12 @ Ari on the surface a 32-16 win on the road vs a top defense looks good, but this may have been LA's most fraudulent result. Ari actually outgained LA 305-303. while LA did put up 25 pts (7 came from a pick 6) most of them came from short fields as a result of Blaine Gabberts incompetence. LA's offense had 2 td's. one came on a 7 play, 23 yd drive. the other on a 6 play, 30 yd drive. they also had two, 31 yd FG drives. they got 26 of their points off of 115 yards of offense. that's fraudulent. Goff threw for 220yds, 2 td, 1 int.

Game #13 vs Phi by far LA's best point output in a 43-35 shootout. the offense put up 28 pts. however, they were outgained 455-307. Goff threw for 199 yds, 2td.

in total, in these 5 games vs good defenses LA averaged 298 yds/game and 16.6 pts/game. Goff threw for 211 yds/game and 5td-3int. those are abysmal #'s. 298 yds/game would've ranked 30th in the league, and 16.6 pts would've ranked 29th. now i know it's not fair to compare these #'s vs the rest of the league who had the benefit of bad defenses built into their averages, but i just wanted to put into perspective how bad LA's #'s would rank.



What is the point of all this? ok, i know what you're saying after reading this... "well duh, teams aren't going to put up huge numbers vs good defenses." i agree, but elite offenses usually average better than 298yds and 16 pts vs good defenses. think of the elite offenses of the past 15 years. Brady's Pats, Rodgers' Pack, Brees' Saints, Peyton Manning led offfenses... they had games where they would torch a good defense every once in a while and they sure as hell scored more than 16 pts/game.

look, we're here to try and win money right? this is a gambling forum. how do you make money betting? you identify things that the average bettor or bookmakers don't see or pick up on. look at every prediction out there for this weeks game vs Atlanta. everyone is saying the same thing, 31-27 Rams, 34-17 Rams, 35-21 Rams, etc. the public will be hammering the Rams in teasers and ML parlays. they will be betting the over, expecting a shootout. i think this is the game the public takes a bath on and Vegas cleans up on.

guess what? Atlanta has a legit defense. and guess what? they're not missing anyone. they're 9th in yds per game and 8th in pts/game allowed. it's highly unlikely that the Rams are gonna march up and down the field and hang 30+ pts in this game. Atlanta hasn't allowed a 100yd rusher since week 7. in the last 10 weeks RB's have averaged 3.42 yds per carry vs Atl. Look how Atlanta locked down Ingram and Kamara in their 2 meetings. the Saints scored 40 pts in 2 games vs Atl, both on indoor fast tracks. Gurley is not going to go buck wild in this one and Goff's #'s vs good defenses don't look condusive to him having a big game here either.

i think Atlanta is a live ML dog. i think getting 6 pts is a good bet. i think betting the Rams TT U27.5 is a good bet. i think teasing the Falcons to double digits is a good bet. i think teasing the Under is a good bet.

i think a underperforming, yet talented, hungry, desperate, Atlanta team that has been waiting all year to try and erase the foul taste of last years SB collapse is going to go out and expose this Rams offense and wreak havoc on the betting public this weekend.



Atlanta 24 LAR 17
 
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It sounds good and all. But the game is going to be won at the point. Aaron Donald is the best player on the line of scrimmage. Atlanta better have answers for him because his motor is no joke. They'll have to hit them with screens, a full back or extra tight end and stick to a heavy run game and Wrs got to make plays when called on. But Atlanta can't spread anyone out in the playoffs this year and win let alone the rams front. Under is probably the lock.
 
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as someone that took 25/1 the Rams I must say I have been very worried about this game, I still feel the Falcons can have a big say on the season even though they just haven't seemed to gel yet they just feel to me like they're not far off, take that NO game where they fumble in the red zone then get stopped on 4th down at the 1, that game could have been a whole lot closer...I won't be taking LA -7, having said that I have a lot more faith in them than the writer above and the one factor I am not sure he completely nails is the fact they still have huge upside especially on the D side of things, good write up with fair analysis.
 

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I don't know about the winner but I sure like the +7 I got on Wed........but I am sure I just jinx's myself.......
 

my clock is stuck on 420 time to hit this bong
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Good info mamba thanks for sharing all doggies looking juicy this weekend .
 

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Superb analysis Mamba. TY for posting.

I took a strong position this week on ATL...an experienced playoff team. Bought a half and got them +7.5 and thought I had stole something. LAR home field advantage not much although LA loves a winner now. Got em also ML at huge plus money as ATL is not traveling across the country to just cover the spread.

BOL and GLTA
 

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Who wrote that?

Overall team efficiency (adjusted for SOS), Rams are # 2 in the NFL, Atlanta # 15.

Overall team D (adjusted for SOS), Rams are # 6, Atlanta # 22.

Two huge advantages.

Offenses and QBs are rated about the same.

Atlanta has a better place kicker, Rams star is missing... that may or not matter, depending upon how the game plays out.

Rams are rested. Yes, that helps this time of the year. Atlanta had to fight the last several weeks to win then travel 2500 miles and play a rested team.

GL!
 

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Careful with total yards crap....alot them yards can and will be aquired after the game is out of reach,

So that alone is not a very telling stat,

Should be a great game tho in my opion the most competive of the weekend....
 

Gunga galunga... gunga, gunga-galunga.
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Careful with total yards crap....alot them yards can and will be aquired after the game is out of reach,

So that alone is not a very telling stat,

Should be a great game tho in my opion the most competive of the weekend....

I agree. You need to look at efficiency not just yards. Good teams score a lot more points with the same amount of yards gained. Why? Here are a few reasons:

1- better field position. When you start in better position, you don’t need to go as far to score

2 - turnovers. If you go 50 yards and then turn it over, the yards add up but the points don’t

3 - settling for field goals. Again, if you go 80 yards but can rarely punch it in yards will be very misleading

average yards required for a point on offense and allowed on defense....these are key inputs in terms of how I calculate my lines as they capture so many underlying strengths and weaknesses.

Best of luck all and happy 2018
 

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Just for the record guys, this is just information. Use it to make better judgements on ur picks today. Nobody's influencing u to pick Atlanta. I, for one are leaning rams btw. BOL.
 

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Part of the reason LA has fewer yards/shorter drives is because they have by far the best special teams in the NFL. Pharoah Cooper returns lots of kicks into + territory.
 

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Nice post mamba but I see it like this if atl can't bottle up gurley and put pressure on Goff their in trouble cause soon as Matty choke ice throw 2 or 3 dumbass INT the rams blow the doors off of atl


#goldblooded
 

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Just wanna share with u guys a great write up about rams offense, this is not my writing btw. All credit to sergei from other site.

"first off, let me say i'm not a Rams hater. i'm not trying to say they suck. they're an exciting young team who is going to challenge for Super Bowls over the next 8-10 years, but i don't think they're there yet. especially the offense.

i think there is an element of fraudulence to the Rams offense. they're good and they're going to get better. but i don't think it's elite. i don't think its the best offense in the league. the Rams put a lot of big #'s on crappy teams. 46 vs the Tolzein led Colts, 41 vs the Hoyer led 9ers, 51 vs a terrible Giant defense, 33 vs the Savage led Watt-less, Mercilus-less Texans, 42 vs a Seattle defense missing almost it's entire back 7.

as i was looking at the Atl/LAR game it surprised me to see that despite leading the league in pts/game the Rams offense was 10th in yards/game. heck Atlanta's supposedly broken offense was eighth in yards/game. now i'm not saying that yards is more important than points or that Atlanta's offense is better because it averages more yards, but it still seemed odd that this supposed Rams juggernaut was only 10th in yards. the #2 scoring NE offense was 1st in yards per game. you think at worst, the league leading Rams would be top 5 in yards. more yards usually correlates to more points.

as i began to look through the Rams schedule i noticed they hung a lot of big crooked #'s vs bad teams with bad QB's. they had a lot of short TD drives, 20, 30, 40 yd td drives. now this isn't cause for diminishing what they accomplished. you work with the field your defense gives you. but it got me curious. how did the Rams high-powered offense perform vs good defenses? what i found wasn't encouraging.



MY THEORY: The Rams offense padded its stats vs bad teams and decent teams who were missing key personnel. when facing good defenses at full strength the offensive numbers would be ugly.

How to prove it: so as i perused their schedule i found 5 games that the Rams played vs good defenses. now i don't wan't to be accused of cherry picking games that supported my argument, so here are the 3 steps i followed to arrive at these five games:

1) the defense had to be top 10 in either Points Allowed/Game or Yds Allowed/Game. Now i did make 1 exception: the Seahawks. the Seahawks were 11th in yds/game and tied for 13th in pts/game. why make the exception? if not for being destroyed by injuries (Chancellor, Sherman, Wright, Wagner,etc) this is clearly a top 10 defense. i know other teams suffered injuries too, but i don't think you can argue with a straight face that this wasn't a top 10 defense when healthy. so after step 1 we had Minnesota, Jacksonville, Philly, NO, Arizona (2), Dallas, and Seattle (2). that's 9 games vs good defenses.

2) the opponent's defense couldn't be missing any key players. i threw out the second Seattle game since their entire back 7 was practically out. i threw out the NO game because Lattimore and Crawley, both starting corners, were missing (no surprise Goff threw for 350+yds). i threw out the Dallas game because Sean Lee was out. and if you think that's an overreaction, go check out Dallas' stats with Lee in vs Lee out. you could argue he's the most important defensive player in the league. so now we're left with Minnesota, Jacksonville, Philly, Arizona(2) and Seattle. 6 games.

3) had to be played on North American soil. this was basically to weed out the London game vs Arizona. London games are all trash. every one was a blowout. one team never wants to be there. Arizona, much like Baltimore and Miami didn't even bother showing up for a 33-0 beatdown. the Cards can't even play on the East Coast, let alone another continent. they let Detroit hang 35 on them, Philly hung 34 on them, heck even the Tom Savage led Texans hung 31 on them when the Cards had to play outside the pacific time zone.

so to sum it up, the Rams played five games this year on North American soil, vs top 10 defenses who weren't shorthanded. vs Sea, @Ari, @Min, @Jax, vs Phi. let's see how they did.



Game #5 vs Seattle LA put up 375 yards of offense resulting in 10 pts scored. however 5 turnovers did them in. Goff was only 22-47 for 288 yds, 0td-2int. this was LA's best yardage output of the five games, but 10 pts and 5 TO's... not off to a good start.

Game #6 @ Jax on the surface going into Jax and winning 27-17 looks impressive... not really. Jax outgained them 389-249. LA's offense put up 249 yards, generated only 13 pts, and scored 1 td. 14 of their pts came off a blocked punt and a 103-yd kick return. Goff threw for 124 yds and 1td.

Game #10 @ Min LA put up 254 yds and 7 pts. Goff threw for 225 yds.

Game #12 @ Ari on the surface a 32-16 win on the road vs a top defense looks good, but this may have been LA's most fraudulent result. Ari actually outgained LA 305-303. while LA did put up 25 pts (7 came from a pick 6) most of them came from short fields as a result of Blaine Gabberts incompetence. LA's offense had 2 td's. one came on a 7 play, 23 yd drive. the other on a 6 play, 30 yd drive. they also had two, 31 yd FG drives. they got 26 of their points off of 115 yards of offense. that's fraudulent. Goff threw for 220yds, 2 td, 1 int.

Game #13 vs Phi by far LA's best point output in a 43-35 shootout. the offense put up 28 pts. however, they were outgained 455-307. Goff threw for 199 yds, 2td.

in total, in these 5 games vs good defenses LA averaged 298 yds/game and 16.6 pts/game. Goff threw for 211 yds/game and 5td-3int. those are abysmal #'s. 298 yds/game would've ranked 30th in the league, and 16.6 pts would've ranked 29th. now i know it's not fair to compare these #'s vs the rest of the league who had the benefit of bad defenses built into their averages, but i just wanted to put into perspective how bad LA's #'s would rank.



What is the point of all this? ok, i know what you're saying after reading this... "well duh, teams aren't going to put up huge numbers vs good defenses." i agree, but elite offenses usually average better than 298yds and 16 pts vs good defenses. think of the elite offenses of the past 15 years. Brady's Pats, Rodgers' Pack, Brees' Saints, Peyton Manning led offfenses... they had games where they would torch a good defense every once in a while and they sure as hell scored more than 16 pts/game.

look, we're here to try and win money right? this is a gambling forum. how do you make money betting? you identify things that the average bettor or bookmakers don't see or pick up on. look at every prediction out there for this weeks game vs Atlanta. everyone is saying the same thing, 31-27 Rams, 34-17 Rams, 35-21 Rams, etc. the public will be hammering the Rams in teasers and ML parlays. they will be betting the over, expecting a shootout. i think this is the game the public takes a bath on and Vegas cleans up on.

guess what? Atlanta has a legit defense. and guess what? they're not missing anyone. they're 9th in yds per game and 8th in pts/game allowed. it's highly unlikely that the Rams are gonna march up and down the field and hang 30+ pts in this game. Atlanta hasn't allowed a 100yd rusher since week 7. in the last 10 weeks RB's have averaged 3.42 yds per carry vs Atl. Look how Atlanta locked down Ingram and Kamara in their 2 meetings. the Saints scored 40 pts in 2 games vs Atl, both on indoor fast tracks. Gurley is not going to go buck wild in this one and Goff's #'s vs good defenses don't look condusive to him having a big game here either.

i think Atlanta is a live ML dog. i think getting 6 pts is a good bet. i think betting the Rams TT U27.5 is a good bet. i think teasing the Falcons to double digits is a good bet. i think teasing the Under is a good bet.

i think a underperforming, yet talented, hungry, desperate, Atlanta team that has been waiting all year to try and erase the foul taste of last years SB collapse is going to go out and expose this Rams offense and wreak havoc on the betting public this weekend.



Atlanta 24 LAR 17

This was the best breakdown of the game I have read. You nailed it. Congrats!
 

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Thanks for posting Mamba..made me reconsider the whole game. Glad I came across this! Thanks again!
 
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Part of the reason LA has fewer yards/shorter drives is because they have by far the best special teams in the NFL. Pharoah Cooper returns lots of kicks into + territory.

Yeah he played great lol.
 

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Just wanted to say this write up was amazing. If you have any similar insights on the next round it would be greatly appreciated.
 

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