Best bets for Alabama-Georgia
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis for the College Football Playoff title game on Monday.
Note: Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday.
CFP National Championship
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5, 44.5) vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs
When: Monday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, Watch ESPN App
PickCenter: 53 percent on Clemson
Fallica: Alabama's defense put forth a herculean effort against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, completely dominating the Tigers. But there are still some concerns with how Alabama's offense will fare versus Georgia's defense, which is pretty comparable to Clemson's. Against Clemson, Alabama's offense was actually worse that it was against Auburn, posting season-lows in yards (261) and yards per play (3.95) and saw nearly a third of its plays go for zero or negative yards. It scored two TDs in 12 drives (had two in 11 drives vs. Auburn).
I realize a lot of that could have been a result of the Tide nursing a lead and relying on that stout defense, but I think Georgia right now has more answers offensively than Clemson did. Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D'Andre Swift are better at RB than what Clemson had, and Jake Fromm has been playing at a high level most of the season, and he was fantastic in the Rose Bowl. Couple that with Georgia's defense, and this should be a much tougher game for Alabama than the semifinal.
I'm well aware you have to go back to LSU in 2011 to find the last time a pro-style, two-back offense beat Nick Saban at Alabama, but I think this could be another instance of that happening. One of the most overhyped numbers in this game is the Nick Saban is 11-0 versus former assistants mark. In those 11 games, Bama was favored by an average of 17 points per game; those games should have been blowouts, and were. This is a totally different animal and the line reflects that.
Saban won a national title in Year 3 at Alabama. His former assistant Kirby Smart beats the Tide on Monday night and gets one in Year 2 behind a solid defense, just enough offense and a big FG by Rod Blankenship.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 24, Alabama 21
Coughlin: Well, here it is: The Tide as a favorite in the title game again. Two years ago I took them as they won but Clemson came in the back door late, and then last year I went against them and they lost on the field.
As I mentioned last week, I was on the field for the Sugar Bowl, and I couldn't be more impressed with how hungry that Tide defense played. They were sensational, and I think they will be the story again in this monumental matchup. I know they lost Jennings, but it's next man up in the Saban program and I don't think it will be much of a drop off.
On the other side, Georgia comes in with its true freshman QB, and a wily old veteran OC in Jim Chaney. How will they combat the Bama defense, will they use the wildcat again? Will they max protect with their good blocking tight ends? If they do, I'm not sure their wide receivers can win enough, and Fromm will be consistently accurate. I know the Bama offense will make the proper adjustments, and they will score enough points. Plus, Tide wideout Calvin Ridley will make a couple of game-changing plays.
I think it will be close, but I feel Alabama will win a close one. My pick is Bama on the money line and not give any points, but if I have to make a pick ATS, I'll take the favorite.
ATS pick: Alabama moneyline (-175), Alabama -3.5
Score: Alabama 23, Georgia 17
Harris: Georgia must buck a lot of recent history to land its first national title since 1980. First, there's Saban's well-documented dominance against his former assistants. Saban is 11-0 straight-up and 9-2 against the number, with a scoring margin of 427-111. Kirby Smart will be the sixth former assistant to go against Saban.
Even more daunting for the Bulldogs is the profile of teams that have beaten Alabama. With the exception of LSU, all of Bama's conquerors since 2008 have been practitioners of modern offense, and have taken down the Tide in high-scoring affairs. Auburn, Clemson, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Oklahoma all have sported at least two of: offense-first identity, elite offensive brain trust and/or elite quarterbacking.
Alabama has owned its fellow downhill, two-back, power-oriented, defense-first teams that play like the Tide. If any such team could hope to run the ball on Bama from the tailback position, it might be the Dawgs and their three-headed monster, but that's a lot to ask, especially given the difference in the running threat at quarterback between mobile veteran Jalen Hurts and the relatively statuesque play-action passer (and true freshman).
History and experience are on the Tide's side, and the matchup suggests that if Georgia is to win it must win a 13-10 type game, rather than in a shootout as all of the above teams have done. Saban has been at the helm more than a decade now, and so far only LSU has managed that.
ATS pick: Alabama
Steele: Alabama has been at the top of my ratings all season. They had a banged-up linebacker corps at the end of the year and barely made it into the College Football Playoff, but showed they belong after a dominating effort against Clemson, holding the Tigers to just 188 total yards.
This will be a lower-scoring game, with both teams trying to establish the rush. Alabama has an edge on the defensive line and secondary, and Georgia at linebacker, especially with Anfernee Jennings out for Alabama. I give Fromm the edge throwing it, but Hurts has a solid 15-1 TD-INT ratio and is a dynamic runner. The running backs are even. Saban's players know what it was like to get to the brink of a title and let it slip away. That left a bad taste in their mouths for 12 months and they finally reclaim the title versus a Georgia team that is off a big two-overtime win and playing in its first playoff title game.
ATS pick: Alabama
CFB VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's college football Vegas experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- are here to provide analysis for the College Football Playoff title game on Monday.
Note: Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Friday.
CFP National Championship
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5, 44.5) vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs
When: Monday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, Watch ESPN App
PickCenter: 53 percent on Clemson
Fallica: Alabama's defense put forth a herculean effort against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, completely dominating the Tigers. But there are still some concerns with how Alabama's offense will fare versus Georgia's defense, which is pretty comparable to Clemson's. Against Clemson, Alabama's offense was actually worse that it was against Auburn, posting season-lows in yards (261) and yards per play (3.95) and saw nearly a third of its plays go for zero or negative yards. It scored two TDs in 12 drives (had two in 11 drives vs. Auburn).
I realize a lot of that could have been a result of the Tide nursing a lead and relying on that stout defense, but I think Georgia right now has more answers offensively than Clemson did. Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and D'Andre Swift are better at RB than what Clemson had, and Jake Fromm has been playing at a high level most of the season, and he was fantastic in the Rose Bowl. Couple that with Georgia's defense, and this should be a much tougher game for Alabama than the semifinal.
I'm well aware you have to go back to LSU in 2011 to find the last time a pro-style, two-back offense beat Nick Saban at Alabama, but I think this could be another instance of that happening. One of the most overhyped numbers in this game is the Nick Saban is 11-0 versus former assistants mark. In those 11 games, Bama was favored by an average of 17 points per game; those games should have been blowouts, and were. This is a totally different animal and the line reflects that.
Saban won a national title in Year 3 at Alabama. His former assistant Kirby Smart beats the Tide on Monday night and gets one in Year 2 behind a solid defense, just enough offense and a big FG by Rod Blankenship.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 24, Alabama 21
Coughlin: Well, here it is: The Tide as a favorite in the title game again. Two years ago I took them as they won but Clemson came in the back door late, and then last year I went against them and they lost on the field.
As I mentioned last week, I was on the field for the Sugar Bowl, and I couldn't be more impressed with how hungry that Tide defense played. They were sensational, and I think they will be the story again in this monumental matchup. I know they lost Jennings, but it's next man up in the Saban program and I don't think it will be much of a drop off.
On the other side, Georgia comes in with its true freshman QB, and a wily old veteran OC in Jim Chaney. How will they combat the Bama defense, will they use the wildcat again? Will they max protect with their good blocking tight ends? If they do, I'm not sure their wide receivers can win enough, and Fromm will be consistently accurate. I know the Bama offense will make the proper adjustments, and they will score enough points. Plus, Tide wideout Calvin Ridley will make a couple of game-changing plays.
I think it will be close, but I feel Alabama will win a close one. My pick is Bama on the money line and not give any points, but if I have to make a pick ATS, I'll take the favorite.
ATS pick: Alabama moneyline (-175), Alabama -3.5
Score: Alabama 23, Georgia 17
Harris: Georgia must buck a lot of recent history to land its first national title since 1980. First, there's Saban's well-documented dominance against his former assistants. Saban is 11-0 straight-up and 9-2 against the number, with a scoring margin of 427-111. Kirby Smart will be the sixth former assistant to go against Saban.
Even more daunting for the Bulldogs is the profile of teams that have beaten Alabama. With the exception of LSU, all of Bama's conquerors since 2008 have been practitioners of modern offense, and have taken down the Tide in high-scoring affairs. Auburn, Clemson, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Oklahoma all have sported at least two of: offense-first identity, elite offensive brain trust and/or elite quarterbacking.
Alabama has owned its fellow downhill, two-back, power-oriented, defense-first teams that play like the Tide. If any such team could hope to run the ball on Bama from the tailback position, it might be the Dawgs and their three-headed monster, but that's a lot to ask, especially given the difference in the running threat at quarterback between mobile veteran Jalen Hurts and the relatively statuesque play-action passer (and true freshman).
History and experience are on the Tide's side, and the matchup suggests that if Georgia is to win it must win a 13-10 type game, rather than in a shootout as all of the above teams have done. Saban has been at the helm more than a decade now, and so far only LSU has managed that.
ATS pick: Alabama
Steele: Alabama has been at the top of my ratings all season. They had a banged-up linebacker corps at the end of the year and barely made it into the College Football Playoff, but showed they belong after a dominating effort against Clemson, holding the Tigers to just 188 total yards.
This will be a lower-scoring game, with both teams trying to establish the rush. Alabama has an edge on the defensive line and secondary, and Georgia at linebacker, especially with Anfernee Jennings out for Alabama. I give Fromm the edge throwing it, but Hurts has a solid 15-1 TD-INT ratio and is a dynamic runner. The running backs are even. Saban's players know what it was like to get to the brink of a title and let it slip away. That left a bad taste in their mouths for 12 months and they finally reclaim the title versus a Georgia team that is off a big two-overtime win and playing in its first playoff title game.
ATS pick: Alabama
