12 Teams - 1 Trophy

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2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 13-13 (-0.70*)
- - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1101468
2017 NFL Season: 0-0 (+0.00*)

Kansas City(-8) over Tennessee (1*)
- - Tennessee has appeared underwhelming to me this season on the heels of multiple prior seasons of underwhelming; they don’t shine with big plays or grinding it out, against a middling schedule and/or with much on the line . . . I’m not sure how much of their early season mojo KC has gotten back, but their offense has been rekindled. As I posted in a thread (elsewhere) before this year’s opening game against New England: “ QB Alex Smith is 60-25-1 SU over the last 6 seasons, and while he displays a fair amount of low risk / Captain Checkdown /game manager tendencies over the long haul of a season, IMO (with which almost no one else concurs), he has consistently as needed elevated his play and been more take charge aggressive in all or nearly all of his playoff appearances (and numerous other big games as well); unfortunately for him, it has been his teammates (and not his solid prime time coaches, either) who have been much more culpable for failing to rise to the occasion and carry those squads to the next level.” . . . Today with what’s at stake at Arrowhead I like KC to get it going and Tennessee to underwhelm in getting it going, and I expect I’ll be nervous and disappointed if KC isn’t up by at least a TD at the half.

GL
 
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Atlanta(+6) over Los Angeles Rams (1*)
- - Probably the toughest game on the card for me. The young Rams have almost no playoff experience, and are facing some problematic decisions in this game without their impeccable kicker, but from what I’ve seen this season, I certainly don’t think the Rams will shy away from a huge challenge and opportunity . . . Atlanta have never been road warriors, have had serious red zone issues (but excellent offensive production in net yards per play over the course of 1000+ plays), and have lots of experience at choking in the postseason, but showed great resolve while IMO playing their best football down the stretch to earn a shot at some playoff redemption the season after 28-3 . . . One stat worth noting is that during wildcard weekend since 2002, the team with the tougher schedule using Sagarin ratings is 41-18-1 ATS (and the stat is even stronger when there is at least a 10 team gap in the ranking), and Atlanta ranks 4th and LA ranks 17th . . . I think the Rams bye strategy last week when their seeding was undetermined holds out more benefit in the event of a deep playoff run rather than in this first playoff outing . . . I think Atlanta will be a tough out in a game featuring swings of playoff emotion and momentum.

GL
 
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Los Angeles Rams(-6)(-105)(2h) over Atlanta (1*)
- - LA is the better team, I knew that going in. LA could not have played worse for the first 20 minutes. Now the momentum is all with LA and the pressure on 13-0 Atlanta is borderline crushing. There were questions coming into this game about Atlanta holding up for 60 minutes in a playoff crucible while traveling cross country on a short week after two tough divisional battles. The fresh young team has the fresh young coach who has been pushing the right buttons all season. The footing on the field is an X factor, but I don’t see it favoring Atlanta at all from here on in.

GL
 
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Jacksonville(-8) over Buffalo (1*)
- - I do like the way Buffalo made the playoffs. But noting that that Buffalo while playing the 16th toughest schedule (Sagarin) was outscored by 57 points on the season, and the Chicago Bears while playing the toughest schedule were outscored by 56 points, Buffalo does not fit many favorable playoff profiles. It doesn’t help that they closed on the road against two divisional foes and now they take it back on the road for a third straight week, and while the playoff buzz should mean Buffalo doesn’t come out flat, and they will likely pull out all the stops, their not so deep tank will be running on some fumes after the early going. And FWIW I also expect that LeSean McCoy will not play; if he does, I don’t think he will finish the game . . . Jacksonville played a very weak schedule (31st), also has no playoff experience, and has a QB that probably gets lambasted as much as Tyrod Taylor and Alex Smith added together. But IMO Jacksonville has flexed considerably more muscle during their playoff path, and are stoked themselves about hosting their first playoff game since 1999; Jax has pretty much known their destiny for a while and have been peeking at this spot and peaking for this spot; and unlike the Rams who were anointed as a dangerous team, Jacksonville can certainly perceive getting no more respect than Buffalo in some quarters and for some time, and they should be playing with a chip on their shoulders at least as big as their opponents . . . Much like the KC game, I expect I’ll be nervous and disappointed if Jax isn’t up at halftime, and at that point while Jax may or may not have the right stuff to stomp on the throats of their opponent, I will then be shocked, unlike the KC game, if the visitor is the team imposing their will in the closing 30 minutes.

GL
 
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NFL Postseason YTD: 1-4 (-3.35*)
2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 14-13 (+0.30*)

Atlanta(-3)(+112) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - I like Atlanta's speed and wrapping up on defense, don't think Philadelphia overpowers them. Like Atlanta's resolve, momentum and experience, don't think Philly can match it. Figured the weather would be worse.

GL
 

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NFL Postseason YTD: 1-4 (-3.35*)
2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 14-13 (+0.30*)

Atlanta(-3)(+112) over Philadelphia (1*)
- - I like Atlanta's speed and wrapping up on defense, don't think Philadelphia overpowers them. Like Atlanta's resolve, momentum and experience, don't think Philly can match it. Figured the weather would be worse.

GL
Fear the Green!
 
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Pittsburgh(-7')(+100) over Jacksonville (1*)
- - Proving I'm dumber than both Tomlin and Roethlisberger.

GL
 
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2018 NFL Postseason YTD: 4-6 (-2.35*)
2017-2018 Bowl Season YTD: 14-13 (+0.30*)

New England(-7)(-126) over Jacksonville (1*)
- -

GL
 

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