How to bet Carolina-New Orleans
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday's game between the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent pick New Orleans
Phil Steele
The Saints controlled both meetings this year. First up was a surprising 34-13 road win (which turned their 0-2 season around), then they won easily 31-21 at home just five weeks ago. It is very tough to beat a team three times in one season. The Saints have taken on the third-toughest schedule in the NFL, playing Carolina and Atlanta twice each and facing teams such as New England and Minnesota. Carolina has taken on the NFL's toughest schedule, facing those teams plus Philadelphia with Carson Wentz.
Carolina has the edge on defense as it holds foes to 32 yards per game below their season average (fourth best in the NFL). The Saints are in the Superdome again here and have the clear edge on offense. Drew Brees and Cam Newton have each thrown for 21 touchdowns this year, with the Saints putting more focus toward their run game. A key cog to the Panthers' offense is tight end Greg Olsen, who missed both of this year's regular-season meetings. He is back to full health in this one and had nine grabs versus the Packers a few weeks back. Carolina was -5 and +5 in the first two meetings but is now getting a full touchdown. The angles cement this one as New Orleans is 1-3 ATS this year as a touchdown-plus favorite and Carolina is an outstanding 5-1 ATS as a 'dog with five outright upsets.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Erin Rynning
The Saints have enjoyed a tremendous season with their always convincing offense anchored by a real defense. Still, the Panthers did little wrong while garnering their own 11 wins. The Saints are enjoying the accolades; however, this Carolina defense outperformed the New Orleans defense in yards per play and game. Meanwhile, the Panthers' offense was expected to start slow with Newton overcoming a shoulder issue. It's worth noting that down the stretch the Panthers averaged just short of 28 points per game. Note my buy price on this game under the total was 49, which flashed earlier in the week.
Pick: Lean Panthers and under
Warren Sharp
With these two teams having played twice already this year, this matchup comes down to one thing: the New Orleans rushing attack. If the Panthers can't slow down the Saints' run game, they won't stand a chance in this game. Carolina ranks No. 6 against the run and is trending as the No. 4 run defense the past month, but the big problem is its explosive run defense. Carolina ranks as the No. 28 explosive run defense, and that is the strength of the Saints, as they rank No. 5 in explosive run offense. The Saints also target their RBs a ton in the pass game, and average 7 yards per attempt when targeting them.
The Panthers' passing offense has been trending slightly worse, part of which is because of some injuries, but their rushing offense has improved, and that is the weakness of this Saints defense. The Saints rank No. 23 against the run, and allow the worst rushing success to opposing run offenses. The Saints are the easiest run defense the Panthers have faced this year since Week 5, when they beat the Lions in Detroit, so they've played many strong run defenses for the majority of the season. Newton is the leading Carolina rusher, and, the past four weeks, he has averaged 13 rushes per game, In the Week 13 game, Jonathan Stewart recorded a 64 percent success rate but Christian McCaffrey had a terrible game (17 percent success rate).
Newton won't be able to do it all by himself, but, if Stewart is healthy and capable of running well, the Panthers will be able to keep the Saints' powerful offense on the sideline and bleed the clock. Lean: Panthers
Mike Clay
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Carolina 21
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO -6.5, 48.5
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Sunday's game between the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent pick New Orleans
Phil Steele
The Saints controlled both meetings this year. First up was a surprising 34-13 road win (which turned their 0-2 season around), then they won easily 31-21 at home just five weeks ago. It is very tough to beat a team three times in one season. The Saints have taken on the third-toughest schedule in the NFL, playing Carolina and Atlanta twice each and facing teams such as New England and Minnesota. Carolina has taken on the NFL's toughest schedule, facing those teams plus Philadelphia with Carson Wentz.
Carolina has the edge on defense as it holds foes to 32 yards per game below their season average (fourth best in the NFL). The Saints are in the Superdome again here and have the clear edge on offense. Drew Brees and Cam Newton have each thrown for 21 touchdowns this year, with the Saints putting more focus toward their run game. A key cog to the Panthers' offense is tight end Greg Olsen, who missed both of this year's regular-season meetings. He is back to full health in this one and had nine grabs versus the Packers a few weeks back. Carolina was -5 and +5 in the first two meetings but is now getting a full touchdown. The angles cement this one as New Orleans is 1-3 ATS this year as a touchdown-plus favorite and Carolina is an outstanding 5-1 ATS as a 'dog with five outright upsets.
ATS pick: Lean on Carolina
Erin Rynning
The Saints have enjoyed a tremendous season with their always convincing offense anchored by a real defense. Still, the Panthers did little wrong while garnering their own 11 wins. The Saints are enjoying the accolades; however, this Carolina defense outperformed the New Orleans defense in yards per play and game. Meanwhile, the Panthers' offense was expected to start slow with Newton overcoming a shoulder issue. It's worth noting that down the stretch the Panthers averaged just short of 28 points per game. Note my buy price on this game under the total was 49, which flashed earlier in the week.
Pick: Lean Panthers and under
Warren Sharp
With these two teams having played twice already this year, this matchup comes down to one thing: the New Orleans rushing attack. If the Panthers can't slow down the Saints' run game, they won't stand a chance in this game. Carolina ranks No. 6 against the run and is trending as the No. 4 run defense the past month, but the big problem is its explosive run defense. Carolina ranks as the No. 28 explosive run defense, and that is the strength of the Saints, as they rank No. 5 in explosive run offense. The Saints also target their RBs a ton in the pass game, and average 7 yards per attempt when targeting them.
The Panthers' passing offense has been trending slightly worse, part of which is because of some injuries, but their rushing offense has improved, and that is the weakness of this Saints defense. The Saints rank No. 23 against the run, and allow the worst rushing success to opposing run offenses. The Saints are the easiest run defense the Panthers have faced this year since Week 5, when they beat the Lions in Detroit, so they've played many strong run defenses for the majority of the season. Newton is the leading Carolina rusher, and, the past four weeks, he has averaged 13 rushes per game, In the Week 13 game, Jonathan Stewart recorded a 64 percent success rate but Christian McCaffrey had a terrible game (17 percent success rate).
Newton won't be able to do it all by himself, but, if Stewart is healthy and capable of running well, the Panthers will be able to keep the Saints' powerful offense on the sideline and bleed the clock. Lean: Panthers
Mike Clay
Prediction: New Orleans 28, Carolina 21
The pick: New Orleans and the over -- NO -6.5, 48.5
