Best system bets for the NFL divisional round

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hacheman@therx.com
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Best system bets for the NFL divisional round
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSDER

It's time for the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, which thankfully is now Buffalo Bills-free. Last week, we hit on a couple of profitable trends on the total, and this week we'll turn our attention to the spread.

In the wild-card round, bettors were split, with no team receiving even 60 percent of spread bets. That was the case all week long, too, as percentages for all teams were in the 40s and 50s from the early going.

This week is different. Right now, all four games feature a team getting more than 60 percent of bets. We'll be going contrarian and looking at two teams that public bettors are ignoring.


Big Underdogs In Games With A Sub-50 Total
OVERS
Record (win pct.) 25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won +16.41
ROI +49.7 percent
Why it works

Since the 2003-04 playoffs, 'dogs getting a touchdown or more have performed very well against the spread. At this point of the season, the large majority of the teams remaining are quite good and capable of covering a 7-point spread, regardless of their opponent. We even saw how Buffalo was able to cover last week.

When games are expected to be lower scoring, these big 'dogs have been even more successful. This is generally the case all season long because the fewer points that are scored, the better probability a 'dog has of covering. By omitting games with a total of 50 or higher, we erase five wins and eight losses from our record.

If you are a bit more of a thrill seeker, you'll be happy to know that these big 'dogs have actually been more profitable on the moneyline. This includes a solid victory for the Titans this past weekend at +369.

Big Underdogs On Moneyline Since 2003 Postseason
OVERS
Record (win pct.) 25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won +16.41
ROI +49.7 percent
As a Patriots fan, I wish everyone luck who wants to bet the Titans straight up; may want to stick to the spread on that one. However, we all saw earlier in the year that the Jaguars are capable of beating the Steelers, so it wouldn't be outlandish to think they could do so again.

Matches

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite destroying the Steelers at Heinz Field back in October, the Jaguars are 7.5-point underdogs once again. They closed at that exact line before beating up on Big Ben and the Steelers defense in a 30-9 victory.

There's no denying Jacksonville's defensive prowess, but the big question is whether the Jaguars can score enough points to keep up with Ben, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. So far, only 37 percent of bettors are backing Blake Bortles and the Jags even though they are getting more than a touchdown. Bortles was able to channel his inner Michael Vick against Buffalo, but he also struggled mightily passing the ball.

Given Roethlisberger's immobility and Brown's uncertain health, the Steelers could struggle in the passing game. Tyrod Taylor managed only 134 yards in the air last week, and in the first meeting between these two teams, the Jags' pressure caused a Nathan Peterman-esque five interceptions from Roethlisberger.

Pick: Jaguars +7.5

Tennessee Titans (+13.5) at New England Patriots

Shockingly enough, it appears there is already some sharp action on the Titans in the early going. After opening at +13.5, Tennessee has moved to +13 across much of the offshore market behind 27 percent of bets and 56 percent of dollars.

In a Twitter poll conducted by The Action Network, the majority of the public said they would need at least 17 points to take Tennessee. It took a miraculous play by Marcus Mariota for the Titans to take down the Chiefs, and many bettors believe their luck won't carry over to this week. Add in the fact that many people believe the Patriots' most recent controversy will help motivate Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and you get the perfect storm to go contrarian and take Tennessee.

Pick: Titans +13.5

Bonus pick

We're going to go back to the well and touch on last week's "dome overs," which have now gone 26-8 dating back to 2003.

Saints at Vikings

Two teams used to playing indoors will take shelter from the cold up in Minnesota this Sunday. The Saints put up 31 points against Carolina this past weekend, doing their part and then some to help us go over the closing total of 47.5. The total for this game has already risen from 44.5 to 45 across the market despite Minnesota's No. 1-ranked defense and the Saints' surprisingly good defense, which allowed the 10th-fewest points per game during the regular season. The Pick: Over 45
 

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HacheMan, last week in CFB Forum, you posted what Vegas needs for the National Champ game. Any of the same article you can share for this weekend Divisional playoffs? Thank you!!
 

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Hey Hache I don't think this information is correct.


Big Underdogs In Games With A Sub-50 Total
OVERS
Record (win pct.) 25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won +16.41
ROI +49.7 percent
Why it works

Since the 2003-04 playoffs, 'dogs getting a touchdown or more have performed very well against the spread. At this point of the season, the large majority of the teams remaining are quite good and capable of covering a 7-point spread, regardless of their opponent. We even saw how Buffalo was able to cover last week.

When games are expected to be lower scoring, these big 'dogs have been even more successful. This is generally the case all season long because the fewer points that are scored, the better probability a 'dog has of covering. By omitting games with a total of 50 or higher, we erase five wins and eight losses from our record.

If you are a bit more of a thrill seeker, you'll be happy to know that these big 'dogs have actually been more profitable on the moneyline. This includes a solid victory for the Titans this past weekend at +369.

Big Underdogs On Moneyline Since 2003 Postseason
OVERS
Record (win pct.) 25-8 (75.8 percent)
Units won +16.41
ROI +49.7 percent
As a Patriots fan, I wish everyone luck who wants to bet the Titans straight up; may want to stick to the spread on that one. However, we all saw earlier in the year that the Jaguars are capable of beating the Steelers, so it wouldn't be outlandish to think they could do so again.

Someone ran the query for the above situations and this is what actually came up

playoffs = 1 and line > 6.5 and season >= 2003 and total < 50
SU:13-32-0 (-6.47, 28.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:28-17-0 (2.32, 62.2%) avg line: 8.8 +6: 38-7-0 (84.4%) -6: 13-32-0 (28.9%) +10: 40-5-0 (88.9%) -10: 11-33-1 (25.0%)
O/U:21-24-0 (2.08, 46.7%) avg total: 43.6+6: 15-30-0 (33.3%) -6: 31-13-1 (70.5%) +10: 12-33-0 (26.7%) -10: 36-8-1 (81.8%)
RushesRush YdsPassesPass YdsCompTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team26.2108.935.4233.220.61.63.76.43.35.919.6
Opp28.8119.734.5242.821.41.45.37.64.68.026.1

Am I missing something?
 

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