How to bet Atlanta-Philadelphia
NFL VEGAS INSIDERS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Saturday's divisional-round game between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information provides analysis on the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 41.5
PickCenter: 65 percent pick Atlanta
Phil Steele
Four of Atlanta's six losses have been by five points or fewer and they have won key games at Seattle and at the L.A. Rams this season. The Falcons are also the only NFC team remaining that made the playoffs last year. Philadelphia was plus-96 yards per game with Carson Wentz as the starter, but is minus-101 yards per game in Nick Foles' three starts. Atlanta has taken on what I rate as the second-toughest schedule in the NFL, while the Eagles had the 24th-toughest schedule. In the last four weeks, Atlanta is the only playoff team that ranks in the top 10 in both offense and defense while the Eagles are the only one that is in the bottom 10 in both categories.
Last year, Jim Schwartz's Eagles defense held the high-flying Falcons to a season-low 15 points (Atlanta averaged 34 points per game). The Falcons offense is not as potent as the 2016 version, and after their defense allowed 377 yards per game in 2016, they're yielding just 321 yards per game in 2017 (ninth). With Philadelphia tallying just 19 total points in its last two games, I like the under in this one.
Pick: Lean under 41.5 total points
Erin Rynning
It's difficult to ignore the scheduling dynamics for the Falcons. They had to go all-out to beat the Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs in Week 17 before their wild-card win in L.A. last week. Now, they swing back to the East Coast for the first game of the weekend against the rested Eagles, which is a monumental task. Philadelphia is certainly a weaker team with Foles under center, but is still a well-rounded team. The Eagles finished fourth in total defense at just 307 yards allowed per game and first against the run. Their offensive run game ranked fourth in the NFL as well at 4.5 yards per carry and the extra prep time for Foles should only help.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Mike Clay
Prediction: Atlanta 20, Philadelphia 19
ATS pick: Philadelphia and the under
John Parolin
1.5 Pass TD by Matt Ryan (Over +125, Under -145)
Ryan hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns in a game since Week 11, a seven-game streak that includes the wild-card win at the Rams. On the season, Ryan has multiple scores in only five of his 17 games, and the Eagles defense has allowed multiple touchdowns in six of 16 games this season. The 11-of-33 figure would suggest there's value to be found in the -145 price.
But does Ryan's career offer another side? Take out his high and low years -- his 2016 MVP season (a historical outlier) and his 2008 rookie year. Ryan has been pretty consistent in the rest of his career, with between 1.5 and 1.75 touchdowns per game in five of his remaining eight seasons. In that span, he has almost a 50-50 split between two-TD games (66) and games with one or fewer (65). This is a larger sample size and a more accurate snapshot of Ryan's career.
Take into account recent trends, with Ryan throwing 5.2 red-zone passes per game in the last five games (including playoffs), an improvement over his start to the season under Steve Sarkisian. Plus, while the Eagles allowed multiple touchdowns in only six of 16 games this year, they still surrendered 24 passing touchdowns -- tied for 18th in the league. Philadelphia gave up at least three touchdowns in four games, twice to Eli Manning and once each to Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. Jared Goff and Philip Rivers were the QBs who threw two TD passes, while the list of players who didn't throw TDs includes names like Brock Osweiler, C.J. Beathard and Mitchell Trubisky. Ryan can get two.
Play: Over (+125)
NFL VEGAS INSIDERS
ESPN INSDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Saturday's divisional-round game between the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information provides analysis on the best prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 41.5
PickCenter: 65 percent pick Atlanta
Phil Steele
Four of Atlanta's six losses have been by five points or fewer and they have won key games at Seattle and at the L.A. Rams this season. The Falcons are also the only NFC team remaining that made the playoffs last year. Philadelphia was plus-96 yards per game with Carson Wentz as the starter, but is minus-101 yards per game in Nick Foles' three starts. Atlanta has taken on what I rate as the second-toughest schedule in the NFL, while the Eagles had the 24th-toughest schedule. In the last four weeks, Atlanta is the only playoff team that ranks in the top 10 in both offense and defense while the Eagles are the only one that is in the bottom 10 in both categories.
Last year, Jim Schwartz's Eagles defense held the high-flying Falcons to a season-low 15 points (Atlanta averaged 34 points per game). The Falcons offense is not as potent as the 2016 version, and after their defense allowed 377 yards per game in 2016, they're yielding just 321 yards per game in 2017 (ninth). With Philadelphia tallying just 19 total points in its last two games, I like the under in this one.
Pick: Lean under 41.5 total points
Erin Rynning
It's difficult to ignore the scheduling dynamics for the Falcons. They had to go all-out to beat the Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs in Week 17 before their wild-card win in L.A. last week. Now, they swing back to the East Coast for the first game of the weekend against the rested Eagles, which is a monumental task. Philadelphia is certainly a weaker team with Foles under center, but is still a well-rounded team. The Eagles finished fourth in total defense at just 307 yards allowed per game and first against the run. Their offensive run game ranked fourth in the NFL as well at 4.5 yards per carry and the extra prep time for Foles should only help.
ATS pick: Philadelphia
Mike Clay
Prediction: Atlanta 20, Philadelphia 19
ATS pick: Philadelphia and the under
John Parolin
1.5 Pass TD by Matt Ryan (Over +125, Under -145)
Ryan hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns in a game since Week 11, a seven-game streak that includes the wild-card win at the Rams. On the season, Ryan has multiple scores in only five of his 17 games, and the Eagles defense has allowed multiple touchdowns in six of 16 games this season. The 11-of-33 figure would suggest there's value to be found in the -145 price.
But does Ryan's career offer another side? Take out his high and low years -- his 2016 MVP season (a historical outlier) and his 2008 rookie year. Ryan has been pretty consistent in the rest of his career, with between 1.5 and 1.75 touchdowns per game in five of his remaining eight seasons. In that span, he has almost a 50-50 split between two-TD games (66) and games with one or fewer (65). This is a larger sample size and a more accurate snapshot of Ryan's career.
Take into account recent trends, with Ryan throwing 5.2 red-zone passes per game in the last five games (including playoffs), an improvement over his start to the season under Steve Sarkisian. Plus, while the Eagles allowed multiple touchdowns in only six of 16 games this year, they still surrendered 24 passing touchdowns -- tied for 18th in the league. Philadelphia gave up at least three touchdowns in four games, twice to Eli Manning and once each to Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson. Jared Goff and Philip Rivers were the QBs who threw two TD passes, while the list of players who didn't throw TDs includes names like Brock Osweiler, C.J. Beathard and Mitchell Trubisky. Ryan can get two.
Play: Over (+125)
