How To Bet Saturday's Patriots-Titans NFL Game

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How to bet Tennessee-New England
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ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for Saturday's divisional-round tilt between the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information breaks down the best prop bets.

Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.



Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)

Total: 47.5
PickCenter: 72 percent on New England

Phil Steele

The Titans have utilized my No. 4-rated special teams to get this deep in the playoffs, as their overall squad is minus-9 yards per game, but the Patriots' No. 2 special teams cancels out that edge. Tennessee had a 16-5 first down deficit at halftime versus the Kansas City Chiefs and trailed 21-3, but rallied to win as Derrick Henry stacked 147 total yards after halftime. Quarterback Marcus Mariota averaged just three rush attempts per game in his first 10 games back from an early-season injury, but has 18 carries in the last two games. However, his touchdown-interception ratio is still 15-16 this season.

The Patriots have won six of their last seven games by 18 points or more off a bye and have taken care of business as a double-digit favorite, going 11-2 ATS in the last three years (including playoffs). While the Chiefs defense was very close to New England statistically on the season, Kansas City allowed 357 yards per game in its last six games, while the Patriots defense has allowed just 306 yards per game in their last six. Travis Kelce was dominant last week until he went out with an injury, so I'm expecting a big day from Rob Gronkowski here.

Don't be concerned if it is close at halftime. New England has outscored opponents 66-18 in the second half of their last three playoff games.




ATS pick: Lean on New England

Erin Rynning

The Titans offense perked up last week with their highest offensive output since mid-November, centered around Mariota running the ball more often. The Patriots finished the season ranked 31st against the run (4.7 yards allowed per carry), but the Titans' pass defense will loom large as a huge concern. They've played a schedule against lesser quarterbacks, but still recently allowed 363 passing yards to the San Francisco 49ers and 286 against the Los Angeles Rams. The Chiefs had the same success last week until Kelce was knocked from the game. The Patriots' now-healthy spread offense should be able to move the football with great efficiency.

Pick: Over 47.5 total points

Mike Clay

Prediction: New England 31, Tennessee 18
ATS pick: Tennessee and the over

John Parolin's props

69.5 rushing yards by Dion Lewis (O/U -110)

The legend of Dion Lewis continues to grow in New England. Lewis led the NFL in yards after contact per rush this season (2.61), and in his career including playoff games, the Patriots are a ridiculous 30-3 when Lewis plays. However, this might not be a game for Lewis to rack up big rushing yardage totals.

Consider his opponent. The Titans rush defense ranks top four in both yards per rush and yards before contact per rush, suggesting opposing rushers don't get a ton of space and yardage. Tennessee allowed a total of five rushing touchdowns all season, fewest of any team in the league. Frankly, the Pats might not even need Lewis that much. Rex Burkhead returned to practice (though he's reportedly still favoring his knee), and there's a good chance New England's best clock-killing device is still Tom Brady's short passing game.

Tennessee ranks 25th in pass yardage allowed this season, including a league-high 157 passing yards per game on throws 10 yards downfield or shorter. The Titans defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete more than two-thirds of their short throws and were tied with the New York Jets for the most short-pass touchdowns in the league (20). Even playing with a lead, Brady could still be New England's best bet to keep the clock moving (which would move the game script into James White territory).

Play: Under
 

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