| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.04 |
| Last 30 Days | 18 | 8 | 0.00 | +21.20 |
| Season to Date | 29 | 22 | 0.00 | +16.08 |
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#552 TEXAS TECH -5½ -110 over West Virginia.
2:00 PM EST. The Mountaineers have skyrocketed into the top-5 after ripping off 15 wins in a row including a 4-0 start to Big-12 play. Although a win over ranked Oklahoma is nice, head coach Bob Huggins loaded this team up with cupcakes during its non-conference schedule. Oddsmakers have not been fooled either, as West Virginia has been the betting favorite in every game they've played this season where a number was posted. Wins over Morgan State, Marist, New Jersey Tech, Fordham, and Coppin State do nothing but pad the win-loss record but a closer look shows us that the Mountaineers have played the second weakest schedule (112th) of the team's ranked in the top-5. For comparison's sake, #1 Villanova has played the 14th toughest schedule, while #4 Purdue has played the 42nd. Last Saturday's high profile win over the Sooners thrust "Press Virginia" back into the national conversation, further inflating its stock in the market.
Texas Tech is coming off its second loss of the season but falling to a pair of ranked teams in Oklahoma and Seton Hall is nothing to be ashamed of. TTU is now 3-1 in Big-12 play after wins over Kansas State, Kansas and Baylor. That 85-73 win at Allen Fieldhouse over the Jayhawks proved that the Red Raiders are ready to hang with the big boys, while Baylor and K-State were crushed by 24 and 16 points respectively. Texas Tech leads the Big-12 in scoring defense and ranks fifth in America in that category. The Red Raiders are allowing just 60.2 points per game.
The Mountaineers have owned the Red Raiders in this series winning seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams, but that should only fuel these highly motivated hosts, who are likely sick of being on the wrong end of those one-sided results. TTU already has some nice wins on its resume, but knocking off a top-5 conference rival would go a long way towards building a tournament resume.
This game marks the first time this season that West Virginia has taken back a price, and it's curious that it comes after they've made their way into the national spotlight as the #2 team in the country. However, Lubbock is not an easy place to win. Last season, the then #7 Mountaineers lost outright to the unranked Red Raiders. It may seem prudent to back the Mountaineers getting points here after they've been nearly unstoppable since losing their first game of the season, but we see this an opportunity to sell high on UWV. The Mountaineers have a high profile home game coming up against Kansas on Monday night and may get caught here in a bad spot.
#520 SETON HALL -12½ over Georgetown
12:00 PM EST. Seton Hall saw its flawless record in Big East play snatched away by the Golden Eagles of Marquette on Tuesday night. It wasn't a "good" loss either, as the Pirates went down with the ship in a 20-point beatdown. While some may see that lopsided decision as an "eye opener", we see it as an opportunity to buy low on one of the Big East's best teams. Seton Hall is 14-3 after playing the 32nd most difficult schedule in the nation, and all three of its defeats came on the road. Both Marquette and Rhode Island made the NCAA's last year while Rutgers has been tougher than advertised this season with a win over Wisconsin among others. The Scarlet Knights also went to overtime with #4 Michigan State.
The Pirates returned six of seven players from their regular rotation from last year's NCAA Tournament team and this might be the best squad that has taken the floor for Seton Hall in quite some time, which is saying a lot after two straight trips to the Big Dance. Seton Hall is 3-0 against ranked competition this season, and the Pirates have won 13-straight at the Prudential Center but all this market sees is a very well-known program (Georgetown) with a very good record (12-4) taking back big points. It’s fool’s gold.
The Hoyas are a nice story, but we're only interested in that narrative because it gives us the opportunity to take advantage of a weak team with brand recognition in the market. The Hoyas are coming off a 69-66 win over St. John's on Thursday night. Although the score was close, that was one of the most boring games played on any court this season. The Hoyas were fortunate to get the W after shooting just 33% from the field while committing 22 turnovers. The MSG crowd was sparse and the fact a game coached between "old" Big East legends like Chris Mullen and Patrick Ewing couldn't draw shows just how far this conference has fallen from its glory days of the 1980s. Ewing's Hoya's are 12-4 but like their coach, this team has been chewing the fat and feasting on weak competition. Georgetown has played the 346th toughest schedule in the nation, and just 351 teams qualify. The Hoya's foundation is built on a house of cards, and they are not in the same league as Seton Hall. Against the Johnnie's, GT was getting 6½-points and won outright but the Johnnies had Villanova on deck and looked somewhat uninterested in the Hoyas. Now one of college basketball's storied programs is taking back massive points but this isn't your daddy's Georgetown or Big East for that matter. We're selling the Hoya's misleading record here and actually get a bargain with the vastly superior host.
#537 LaSalle -110 over DUQUESNE
12:30 PM EST. College basketball is beautiful for so many reasons and now that the market has shifted its focus from college football to college basketball, more opportunities arise and none on the board are better than this one. What we have here is the Duquesne Dukes at home with a 12-5 conference mark and a 3-1 conference record evenly priced against LaSalle, a team that sits with a 7-10 record and a 1-3 conference mark. The home team with the way better record and no significant injuries look like a pretty strong play here to the unsuspecting but we’re here to tell you that the Explorers are the better team and it might not be close.
Wins and losses influence the market but we’ll continue to preach to play the ingredients and not the results. Results in all sports can be so misleading and that applies here to both squads. We’ll first have a look at how the Dukes got to be 12-5. The Dukes opened with victories against St. Francis and VMI. After three straight losses to Robert Morris, Cornell and Pitt, the Dukes reeled off another six victories in a row against six cupcakes in Maryland Eastern Shore, Stetson, Delaware St., Mississippi Valley St., North Carolina A&T, Lamar and San Francisco before closing out its non conference schedule with a loss to Southern Illinois. The Dukes would then open conference play with three straight wins over Dayton, George Washington and Fordham before losing to VCU in its last game and there you have it. The Dukes of Duquesne have played the weakest schedule in the nation, ranking 351 out of 351 teams but most of this market only sees wins and losses, which brings us to the Explorers.
By contrast, LaSalle’s strength of schedule ranks 53rd in the country, which is almost 300 positions higher than Duquesne’s SOS. This is an Explorer’s squad that lost by just nine to then #11 Miami and by just nine to then #4 Villanova, who is now ranked #1. Against then #20, Northwestern, the Explorers lost by eight. In conference play, the Explorers are 1-3 but the losses came against Rhode Island, VCU and UMass, who are a combined 9-4 in the A-10. This is a truly battle tested team with a solid frontcourt and talented guards now have a chance to make their move up the A-10 standings. Duquesne are complete imposters and will at some point pay a heavy price for scheduling games against such weak competition.
ALL BETS ARE TO WIN 2 UNITS
