Indiana (2)
NW at 11-7 and 6-9 ats and 1-4 away and 2-3 in conf scoring 74.8 ppg giving up 67.2 ppg for a diff of 7.7
IU at 10-7 and 8-9 ats and 8-3 home and 3-2 in conf scoring 74.7 ppg giving up 72.2 ppg for a diff of 2.5
Diff of 5.2 in favor of NW and Indy usually worth 4-5 at home. Line is a tad high using all numbers. Using home and away diff of 16-17. Cupcakes for both teams, unexpected losses for both teams, and runs for both teams.. Right now Indiana the hot team with two straight conf wins (3-2) in conf play going for 3 straight and of course at home. NW broke a losing streak with a big home win over Minny, of course who was humiliated at home today by 34 points. Anyway, I see NW is 1-4 on the road losing their last two by a average margin of 20.5.
IU have won 3 straight and 4 out of the last 5 at home in this series. (like home court with such a small spread)
NW have the edge in shooting stats although the home and away are pretty close at IU.
IU appears to be used to their new coach and the offense and have won two straight big 10 games both by 4 at Minny and home over Penn St.
Hartman is back after tightness in his shoulder kept him out a game and scored 10 points against Penn St. Davis is out for the year but has already been out for a few games now. His loss allows IU to play faster again as the pace was tough for the big man. And speed is what they will need to defend the 3 and NW back cuts.
It's not often you will get a Indiana team only giving up 2 1/2 points at home in a conf game.
They can compete and gave Duke a pretty good game at Assembly Hall.
If we didn't have forgiveness in college basketball on teams that have looked bad at times we'd be out of teams to play on.
Playing my home state team today but you know I've also went against them plenty of times.
Missouri St (2)
Ind St at 8-9 and 6-7 ats and 2-3 away and 3-2 in conf scoring 73.8 ppg giving up 73.1 ppg for a diff of .7
Missouri St at 13-5 and 8-6-1 ats and 7-1 home and 3-2 in conf scoring 70.8 ppg giving up 62.1 ppg for a diff of 8.7
Diff of 8 and MS worth 4 at home, line is set at -10. close,
Missouri St at home scoring 71.0 giving up 60.1 ppg for a diff of 11.1
ISU away scoring 74.6 ppg giving up 74.0 ppg for a diff of .6,
still around 10-11
Sometimes it's hard to explain why you like a game and especially when you go against a team that you've watched even before the Larry Bird day's. (student then) now those were the days! I think they are in trouble this game. MS is definitely the better team to begin with and with both teams currently at 3-2 in conf play they both will be fired up for this one. Shooting stats are close with the edge going to ISU and the strong edge to the boards for MS.
The home team had won the last 9 straight in this series until last year. ISU broke that streak with a 5 point win at MS. MS had a lot of injuries and definitely will be ready with a veteran team back this year.
Now the biggest reason why I'm going against ISU:
Injuries: Last game 5 players didn't even suit up for the N. Iowa game. The flu hit the team pretty hard and they have been fighting it since the N. Iowa game. A couple of the starters had to come to the bench for rest trying to play through it.
Key injury: Davis 3rd leading scorer and best big, didn't dress last game, I thought he was just out with the flu but now they say he has pneumonia and may be unavailable for the game. If he doesn't play gone are 26.6 min and 10.4 ppg and 5.2 rebs, 82.9 ft% and 35% 3 pt,
reserve Thomas: Didn't dress last game and has a knee injury, they said he was day to day.
Knight: most likely done for the season and has already missed a lot of games,
back to the flu, our coach keeps things in house like that, no one knew those guys weren't going to play, but then in his defense they just might have come down with that day, anyway pretty sure it's gone but we will have a very short bench.
The other two ISU bigs, Murphy and Rickman, can't score, take that back, Murphy is starting to get in the post and did get the winning tip in at the buzzer last game. He is always in foul trouble. His back up is a work of art, he can jump back has no hands and shoots ft's at a 42% clip,
ISU leading scorers are both guards that can shoot the 3 and are averaging 17 and 14 a game. If MS just defends them and contests their 3's ISU doesn't stand a chance.
Missouri St strength is their play. With ISU without Davis, and Murphy always in foul trouble, they will get killed on the inside.
Missouri St: post play:
Johnson: 29 min, 15.2 ppg, 11.4 rebs, 77% ft
Scurry: 16.6 min, 9.3 ppg, 7.2 rebs, 70% ft
Miller: 20.7 min, 9.2 ppg, 4.1 rebs, 76% ft
We will get killed on the inside.
So I think we will need everyone of those 10 points, but the way hoops has been going in conf play you just n ever know for sure what's going to happen.
good luck everyone
