NCAA (Monday)

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yesterday: 6-4 +1.50


1 unit: 149-141 -6.05
2 unit: 100-59 +69.90
3 unit: 1-1 -.30

overall: 250-201 +63.55

Just played these. May add tomorrow. I like some of the marquee matchups and just no those lines will move hopefully towards who I like. Look for middle plays or outs on the (2). This time of year is crazy and lines are sharp in conf play.


726 Providence -1 -110 (1)
730 MF under 154 1/2 -110 (1)

734 Penn St -7 1/2 -110 (2)
728 Michigan -7 -110 (2)
744 Nebraska -5 -110 (2)
 

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Providence (1)

Making a play on Providence at home in a game where all they have to do is win and I don't lose the play. Don't have to worry about a ft or two to cover a2 or higher spread.

At home Providence is 8-2 and 3-2 in conf play. The are always a tough out at home. Beat Xavier by 9 in their last home game and have some nice history over Butler at home.

Provo has won the last 3 at home in this series and 4 out of the last 5 at home in the series and coverd ats in four of them by margins of 6, 14, 3, lost by 4, and won by 9. So kind of liking them at home at -1.

Butler at 1-3 in true road games with losses at Creighton (11) down by as many as 25, at Xavier (7), and at Maryland (14), they did beat Georgetown by (2) IN ot.

so worth a shot for me in this strange starting time for Monday game on Mr. Kings day
 

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Welcome to a really good place for sports, discussions, and many really good posters.


I highly advise that you check out all of the posters in this hoops forum as there are just to many of them to name. There are many of them on the plus side, and mnay more who will be by the end of the season.
 

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Duke at Miami Fl under 154 1/2 (1)


If you play this one you will most likely be nervous the whole game. You might go some possessions without a basket, but then boom, 3's falling and fast break points so quickly.

I'm getting 150.4 on combined average for both teams counting all games. Some of them were high scoring beat downs against weak teams early in the season. Coach is looking at everyone and evaluating, and players are trying to impress their coach. Now I'm hoping the some of the grunt of ocnf season is kicking in.

Duke is a very tough team to play a under on as they are 19-7 last 26 on the O/U (I'm a fool)
on the other had MF is is 5-13 on the over/under last 18. (maybe not I'm hoping)

Looking at the last 10 games in this series (last 6 years with same coach at the helms usually same style of play) the total points scored were :

Last year: 105 and 128, seasons before, 149, 164 , 113, 153, 152, 152, and 137, so 9 out of 10 were under the present number for this game set at(154 1/2). It's a gamble, it could go way over, these players are different than those previous games, (coaches aren't though)

Miami has a pretty good D giving up only 60.7 ppg on the season and 58.7 at home. I just got to think with a packed gym and the length of MF that they will match up well and that Duke shots will be highly contested and offensive rebs by both teams will be harder to come by.

If that MF spread climbs higher I may be hitting them up on the game. Waiting for all that Duke action to come in

Duke are 3-10-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. (like it)
Underdog is 9-4-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings. (MF underdog a t home and like it)
 

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Any concern for a Michigan hangover after Saturdays big win?

COTINUED SUCCESS
 

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Michigan (2)

Maryland at 14-5 but 1-3 on the road. They are also 3-9 ats last 12 big 10 games.
Maryland has 11 wins at home but not at home in this one.
Maryland was hurt hard by losing some very key players in Jackson and Bender for the season.
Maryland now has Fernando and Wiley listed as questionable for this game with a illness and a concussion.
I'm sure this already reflected in the line, but their presence will be missed on the court for sure on the road.

Mich at 15-4 and 11-6 -1 ats, and a even better 6-1-1 ats at home! (like it a lot)
Mich also 9-1-1 ats last 11 in big 10 play. (they are really a nice team)

Maryland did beat them last year at home, but Maryland was definitely a better team last year and Michigan much, much better this year than last.

Mich at 4-2 in conf play coming off a very impressive 10 point win at Mich St. (Momentum) I can't imagine them over looking Maryland in a conf game and Mich behind both Purdue and Ohio St in conf play. Nope, pretty sure if they lose it won't be because of a underestimation of their opponent. It will be because they played bad or Maryland played awesome.

reason I've been doing this one game at a time is I'm having problems with the internet at home, things are loading slowly, coming and going, probably a combination of the snow and ice and so many people off work that the server is struggling.
 

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Nebraska (2)

Illinois 10-8 and 6-7 ats and 0-5 in conf play and have yet to win a true road game 0-5.
They have lost on the road by margins of 10, 10, 4, 7, and 7 at Mich, Minny, NW, UNLV and WF. (worth a shot going against them again)
Illinois are 2-6-1 ats lst 9 road games. (like I said, worth a play for me)

Nebraska at 12-7 and a really nice 12-5 ats, and are 9-1 at home and 3-3 in conf play. (like it a lot)
Nebraska are 8-0 ats last 8 games overall (riding the hot streak out)


Nebraska big advantage on the boards!

Neb at 3-3 in conf and really can't afford a t afford a conf loss at home. I really think they stand a good shot at taking care of business at home against a Illinois team that has been very inconsistent and not so good on the road.
 

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Penn St (2)

Minny at 13-6 and 1-3 away and 2-4 in conf play
Penn ST at 13-6 and 10-2 home and 3-3 in conf play.

No doubt liking Penn St at home in this one for me.
PS play well at home and have won last 3 at home in this series and covered all 3 ats in this series.

Minny are struggling big time.
They have lost 3 straight games. The last one at home 81-47 to Purdue. The game before that 83-60 to NW and the one before tha at home to IU by 4.
You keep thinking their due. Well definitely a chance at them playing well and covering after that loss embarrassing loss to Purdue. I fell for that after that embarrassing loss to NW, after the loss at home to IU. (warned they could come out and play strong)

I'm still playing Penn St at home.
Minny has been hurt really hard with injuries to Coffey and Lynch suspension.

Minny at 2-8 ats last 10 overall. (playing poor)
Fav is 8-2 ats last 10 in this series. (Penn St fav)


Big advantage Penn St in Home/Away shooting

Offensive stats:

Minny away: 73.2 ppg, 38.7 % fg, 31.6% 3pt, 73.6% ft, and 32.8 off rebs
Penn home: 77.6 ppg, 45.9% fg, 37.6% 3 pt, 71.4% ft, and 37.5 off rebs (nice advantage Penn St)

Defensive Stats:

Minny away: 82.5 ppg and opponents shooting 50.9 % fg (ugly)
Penn St home: 61.3 ppg and opponents shooting 38.5% fg (big advantage)

Minny road loss margins: 23, 16, 20, to NW, Ark, Nebraska,

Like I said, can they turn this this thing around or not, it's possible as anything goes in college hoops, I guess that's why the -7 1/2 spot is in place.

Look for 1/2 middles or outs, and if I can't post them or do post them, you don't have to, make your own decisions on how or why you play a game.

I'm wrong a lot and conf play is much tougher than regular season play for me.

I'm still watching the lines on some key matchups, of course wanting more or less points because I've got so many close losses that every 1/2 point matters!


Good luck everyone and always bet reasonably in this grind!
 

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Any concern for a Michigan hangover after Saturdays big win?

COTINUED SUCCESS

Sorry, just saw this MetFan, this is what I had down about it in one of my posts

Mich at 4-2 in conf play coming off a very impressive 10 point win at Mich St. (Momentum) I can't imagine them over looking Maryland in a conf game and Mich behind both Purdue and Ohio St in conf play. Nope, pretty sure if they lose it won't be because of a underestimation of their opponent. It will be because they played bad or Maryland played awesome.
 

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726 Providence -1 -110 (1)
730 MF under 154 1/2 -110 (1)

734 Penn St -7 1/2 -110 (2)
728 Michigan -7 -110 (2)
744 Nebraska -5 -110 (2)

add:

1st half: 1726 Providence +1 -110 (1)

730 MF +4 1/2 -110 (1)
732 Boston College +4 -110 (1)
 

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