Afc & Nfc Conference Championship Games

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Here we are, down to 3 games left on the season, oh how fast it always goes by when watching & betting football, adding all the holidays in between, etc.....

Patriots did to the Titans what they usually do to teams up in Foxboro, win games (with the help of a few terrible calls against their opponents by the refs), & this is the Pats 4th str championship game, which means you still gotta be great no matter how much the refs wanna help.

Was watching Fox news & they were talking about the Vikings ending, & the weather lady stated she was rooting for Philly, & as long as the Pats don't win, cuz Brady doesn't need another ring, let someone else win she said, lol.....I think everyone in america agrees with her sentiments except for people in Boston & a few outside.

The Titans did beat the Jags twice this season, but the last game in week 17 had the Jags going thru the motions, they were focused on the SB. Amazing how Bortles goes from looking like crap vs Bills to looking like Montana vs the Steelers.

Jags defense gave up 42 points on the road, but IMO, the defense wasn't fully cranked in this game, & the offense took over & Pitt didn't get their revenge, again getting embarrassed at home in the playoffs.

We all know what the Patriots are capable of, & if the flag happy refs keep it to a fair called game, the Jaguars will go into Foxboro & win SU........sure the Pats have Belichick & Brady, the best coach & Qb combo of all time, close by is Walsh & Montana.

I think the game plan Belichick will have is to get the ball out fast & dink pass, Brady wont have all the time to throw like he has past several games, & I do know the Jags will blitz Brady & try to get him off his game.

I think Jags defense will get to Brady & sack him several times, that's the only way to beat the Pats.......let's not forget Tom Coughlin is the executive vice president of football operations for the Jags, & he defeated Belichick & Brady twice in the super bowl with the Giants & Eli Manning.......if he can do that with Manning, he can do it with Bortles.....but this Jags defense is so much better than those teams the Giants had.

Coughlin knows how to beat Belichick in the big game, & I'm sure he's giving the coaches plenty of info.......nobody thought the Jags would get this far, including me, but they've gotten here on their defense & their RB Fournette (check injury report).

I will be taking (Jaguars plus points & ML, waiting for a better ML, both locals have Jags +9.5)


Will be back with my NFC write-ups
 

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Good luck. I like the Jags myself. I think it will be a tight game. Hopefully they can pull off the upset!
 

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Call us crazy, but I like Jags ATS and SU as well. GL
 

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Please somebody explain how the Jags struggled to score 10 at home vs Buffalo but put up 45 in 17 degree weather in Pittsburg.

NE will have the refs and other things going for them, with Brady 40 now they will leave nothing to chance.

After NE's famous upset win vs The St. Louis Rams as 14 pt dogs, there were several statements made, Ram WRS Torrey Holt and Issac Bruce were both quoted in the local paper as saying that the NE DBs and LBs were shouting out the Rams plays, with the Rams nomenclature, as the got to the line of scrimmage. I do not know if this can be searched for... it might have been "scrubbed". It was hushed up, for the sake of the NFL. Also, the whole game NE tackled Marshall Faulk when he went out for swing passes and nothing was called. A good search of the internet will show there are dozens of articles with visiting teams stating how they need to screen their locker rooms for surveillance bugs, etc, all the days they are in NE.

Yes it is real. How deep it goes, how much will go on now that everybody knows about it is another thing. We shall see. The Titans game was a disgrace. All those drive changing calls, NE keeps the ball when they should punt, Titans punt when they should keep it, until the Titans wore down and more importantly Mariota was injured and unable to roll out, scramble, avoid the sack... if the game is legit, take the +9. But beware, NE has ways of getting what they want, and with Brady getting older they do not want to waste this opportunity.
 

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Please somebody explain how the Jags struggled to score 10 at home vs Buffalo but put up 45 in 17 degree weather in Pittsburg.

NE will have the refs and other things going for them, with Brady 40 now they will leave nothing to chance.

After NE's famous upset win vs The St. Louis Rams as 14 pt dogs, there were several statements made, Ram WRS Torrey Holt and Issac Bruce were both quoted in the local paper as saying that the NE DBs and LBs were shouting out the Rams plays, with the Rams nomenclature, as the got to the line of scrimmage. I do not know if this can be searched for... it might have been "scrubbed". It was hushed up, for the sake of the NFL. Also, the whole game NE tackled Marshall Faulk when he went out for swing passes and nothing was called. A good search of the internet will show there are dozens of articles with visiting teams stating how they need to screen their locker rooms for surveillance bugs, etc, all the days they are in NE.

Yes it is real. How deep it goes, how much will go on now that everybody knows about it is another thing. We shall see. The Titans game was a disgrace. All those drive changing calls, NE keeps the ball when they should punt, Titans punt when they should keep it, until the Titans wore down and more importantly Mariota was injured and unable to roll out, scramble, avoid the sack... if the game is legit, take the +9. But beware, NE has ways of getting what they want, and with Brady getting older they do not want to waste this opportunity.

I hear you, & yes, the Pats are well known cheaters by everyone in america & the world, unless you're a Pats fan or living in Boston. Trying to explain to a Pats fan on how they get 90% of the calls favoring them is futile.

They are known to use every imagineable angle under the sun, & I guess I would also to get the win......with that said, the Jaguars have a secret weapon, his name is Tom Coughlin, & he's beaten Belichick & Brady twice in the SB, & we all know, Belichick never loses twice to the same team, but they did, & I was happy to see it......don't get me wrong, I made a ton of money on the Pats ML & +14.5 in 2001 vs Rams in the SB, & everyone of my friends & family thought I was nuts to bet the Pats, so I don't blindly fade Brady & Belichick.

Also had several great wins with Pats & against Pats over the years......I think people are tired of seeing the same team in the SB dominating not just because of the taken, cuz Brady is one of the best ever, but cuz of the damn refs helping them so much.....that will all come to an end this Sunday, Jags ML, Pats won't advance.

My cousin took the Titans +13.5 as did I last week, & we were talking bout the lines for next week & now he's gun shy after the beat down Pats gave Titans.......as most bettors will be, not many backers of Titans will jump on the Jags, they're scared of another massacre, but it won't happen.

Cougluns Giants were well aware of the Pats cheating, & the refs influences & I'm sure the Jags are too.
 

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I hear you, & yes, the Pats are well known cheaters by everyone in america & the world, unless you're a Pats fan or living in Boston. Trying to explain to a Pats fan on how they get 90% of the calls favoring them is futile.

They are known to use every imagineable angle under the sun, & I guess I would also to get the win......with that said, the Jaguars have a secret weapon, his name is Tom Coughlin, & he's beaten Belichick & Brady twice in the SB, & we all know, Belichick never loses twice to the same team, but they did, & I was happy to see it......don't get me wrong, I made a ton of money on the Pats ML & +14.5 in 2001 vs Rams in the SB, & everyone of my friends & family thought I was nuts to bet the Pats, so I don't blindly fade Brady & Belichick.

Also had several great wins with Pats & against Pats over the years......I think people are tired of seeing the same team in the SB dominating not just because of the taken, cuz Brady is one of the best ever, but cuz of the damn refs helping them so much.....that will all come to an end this Sunday, Jags ML, Pats won't advance.

My cousin took the Titans +13.5 as did I last week, & we were talking bout the lines for next week & now he's gun shy after the beat down Pats gave Titans.......as most bettors will be, not many backers of Titans will jump on the Jags, they're scared of another massacre, but it won't happen.

Cougluns Giants were well aware of the Pats cheating, & the refs influences & I'm sure the Jags are too.


Very good point with Coughlin. IMO some teams go to extreme measures to ensure NE is not stealing plays, signals, etc, and some just do it but do not go far enough. Also IMO after the debacle last week the refs can hardly railroad the Jags as badly as they did the Titans. Hey did anyone notice there were (almost?) no offensive line holding calls in the NE-Titan game while it still mattered? Most NFL game there are several, even numerous calls. IMO if they let that go, it favors NE with the immobile pocket passer. Subtle but it matters.
We shall see.
I go with NE a lot, but last week I had to take Titans + 14, better OL, better DL, mobile QB, top RB, and they got hosed.
I cannot decide other than make sure it is a small wager. Philly + 3 looks good at this point, though...
GL!
 

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Vikings at Philly........I wish Wentz didn't get hurt, we may have had an epic game in Philly.....not saying this will be a blowout, cuz I don't know what to think as of now.

This may come down to the wire like the Vikings/Saints game.....one thing I do know, the Vikings received a miracle win last night, thanks to the Saints defender taking a swan dive into his own player going under the receiver......maybe he was trying to tackle his own teammate to get him out of the way so Minny can score? Lmao......just kidding, who knows wtf these guys are thinking when they're out there.

I do know that Payton made several bad calls through out the game, the most important one was on 3rd & 1 with :33 seconds left.....you don't run up the freaking middle against a top defense stacking the line.....come to think of it, Payton did the exact same sh*t in week 1 at Minny, 4 times inside the 10, & with 1st & goal all 4 times, he ran up the middle.....maybe he's losing his mind, who knows.

After that mistake, you gotta send your defenders deep to cover the field, lol, what a joke.

Congrats to the Vikings for advancing, they have a great defense, & Keenum looked sharp in the 1st half, the Vikings kind of let their foot off the gas in the 2nd half, & almost had their heart broken for playing not to lose.....& I believe that wax a wake up call.

Teams usually do quite well after getting a miracle like this in the playoffs......Music City Miracle by Titans in the wildcard round got them to the SB & lost, Bills in 1992 down like 3-38, came back to win 41-38 in overtime in the wildcard round & got to the SB & lost, etc, plenty of other examples......If Vikings win in Philly, they are the first team to host the SB & be in it......very interesting stuff going on this coming week in the NFL.

As of now, I'm leaning towards Vikings ML, but that could change, very tough game.

The Eagles have a good defense as well, but will Foles do just enough to not lose? Foles is a shell of himself from his 27 td & 2 int season.......Phillys defense was the reason they beat Atlanta, not Foles, altho Foles showed signs of dome great 8-10 yard passes, he shoots himself in the foot other times.

Phillys RB gotta protect the ball, cuz in this hame, Vikings will be going forvthe strip every time he runs with it.......will try & break down this NFC game more as the week goes on.....

If anyone has any angles, trends, systems, etc......please do add them in here, TIA!
 

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Perhaps I am being shortsighted, judging strictly on the last 48 hours, but for the life of me, I cannot wrap my head around the Vikings being favored by 3.5 on the road. Viking defense, with the aid of crowd noise, didn't bother Brees. I already played eagles +3.5 and may add to it. 3.5?
 

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Perhaps I am being shortsighted, judging strictly on the last 48 hours, but for the life of me, I cannot wrap my head around the Vikings being favored by 3.5 on the road. Viking defense, with the aid of crowd noise, didn't bother Brees. I already played eagles +3.5 and may add to it. 3.5?

You received a good line, might be +3 everywhere by Wed.
 

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I will probably pass on a side on NE. I am a PAtriots fan but I can't lay 9.5 vs that defense. So I would probably say Jax is where the value is. I will pass. Will angle the total.

I feel pretty confident in Minny. Then again, I just bet against them (pushed) and Atlanta (lost) so I need to look closer. I do think these defenses are getting too much respect on totals. Both gave up some points yesterday, especially Jax.

I also can't fathom that Keenum, Bortles and Foles are among the final 4. I wanted Brees to make it to add some narrative to the possibilities.
 

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Bobbyjones2,

I totally agree with you and even said the same thing re: perhaps I am being shortsighted and pounced too early. But since I devour this stuff almost 24/7 all year let alone the playoffs I grabbed PHI -4 (-115) AT 2 A.M. AT BODOG.EU AND MY LOCAL BOOK HONOURED IT AS WELL.

I also have a futures bet that pays $5000 for PHI-NE to meet in SB so I am not backing down from that either. I laid it back in week # 8 long before Wentz went down.

I've enjoyed a bountiful season, bowl run and playoffs so far so what the hell...stay humble, stick to our capping guns and may the train keep 'a rolling. :toast:
 

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