Sos

i am torn on the Jax/Pats game.. I like the defense of the Jags, but can they "slow down" Brady and Co...? I was looking at who they each faced this past season...

Pats had 15 toughest sched. and Jax had the 30th ...

Pats faced
KC - L
Saints - W
Texans - W
Car - L
Tampa - W
Jets - W, W
Atl - W
Chargers - W
Den - W
Raiders - W
Miami - W, L
Buff - W, W
Steelers - W

Jax faced
Texans - W, W
Tenn - W, L
Balti - W
Jets - W
Steelers - W
Rams - L
Indy - W, W
Ariz - L
Cleve - W
Seat - W
San Fran - L
Chargers - W
Cinn - W

Teams in bold above were teams that made it to the playoffs...(Pats - 6, Jax - 3)

Jax was not really tested this season with offenses that can put up 30+ points like the Pats can... and when they played "good" defenses,
they didn't fair well (Ari, Rams)

But 9 is a ton of points... really torn on this game... see value on both sides...

Thoughts??? lets discuss....

MODS please delete this one... somehow a double post... I dont know why... sorry

Sagarin is not perfect but has NE at # 29, Jax at # 31. SOS matters especially first round IMO.
I wonder how good the Jax defense really is... gave up 42 last week, 490 yds passing. If their SOS is that bad, then there is some logic to wondering if their D is really as good as portrayed. They played a lot of weak offensive teams. IMO the first time they played the Steelers the Steelers (especially Ben) had their heads up their asses.
NE is in sync, is a covering machine, is very healthy with all their offensive weapons ('cept Edelman), and their D has played very well last 1/2 of the schedule, I wonder if Jax can stop NE and at this point do not think Jax can keep up with NE scoring. Bortles is better than the nasty narrative we keep hearing, but Belicheat will take out Fornette and make Bortles beat them.
Long way to go, but at this point I have to think NE is going to smother the Jax offense and put 31-38 on the board themselves.
You are a good capper... we shall see.
GL!

The reason Pitt put up 42 points is the Jags played prevent most of the 2nd half, or we would have seen another outcome like week 5, dontbbe fooled by the final score.

Heres something from a site a got that was interesting on teams with a 12-4 finish or higher & their SOS......its a 10 year span, from 2005 to 2014


2014 - The Cowboys went 12-4 on the 31st-ranked schedule and lost in the divisional round, 26-21 to the Packers. The Ravens went 10-6 on the 30th-ranked schedule and lost in the divisional round to the Patriots, 35-31. The Steelers went 11-5 on the 29th-ranked schedule and lost to Baltimore in the wild card.

2013 - The Broncos went 13-3 on the 31st-ranked schedule and lost 43-8 in the Super Bowl to the Seahawks, I think.

2012 - The Broncos went 13-3 on the 31st-ranked schedule and lost in the divisional round 38-35 in 2OT to the Ravens. The Falcons went 13-3 on the 27th-ranked schedule and lost in the NFC Championship to the 49ers.

2011 - The Packers went 15-1 on the 31st-ranked schedule and lost in the divisional round to the Giants, 37-20. The Saints went 13-3 on the 30th-ranked schedule and lost in the divisional round to the 49ers. The Patriots went 13-3 on the 23rd-ranked schedule and lost in the Super Bowl to the Giants. Funny enough, New York had the fourth-hardest schedule and nearly every other playoff team that year had an easy schedule.

2010 - The Falcons went 13-3 on the 22nd-ranked schedule and lost in the divisional round 48-21 to the Packers.

2009 - The Vikings went 12-4 on the 30th-ranked schedule and lost in the NFC Championship to the Saints. The Packers went 11-5 on the 31st-ranked schedule and lost in the wild card to the Cardinals.

2008 - The Titans had the best record at 13-3, and their schedule was ranked 23rd; they lost to the Ravens in the divisional round.

2007 - The Packers went 13-3 on the 29th-ranked schedule and lost in the NFC Championship to the Giants.

2006 - The Chargers went 14-2 on the 29th-ranked schedule and lost in the divisional round to the Patriots. The Bears went 13-3 on the 31st-ranked schedule and lost in the Super Bowl to the Colts.

2005 - Seahawks are the obvious ones, but in all fairness they were third in DVOA. The Panthers had the 31st-ranked schedule and went 11-5, losing to Seattle in the NFC title game. The Colts were 14-2 and had the 27th-ranked schedule, losing to the Steelers in the divisional round.


None of the 10 Super Bowl winners had a really easy schedule. There are 18 teams listed about, 28 if you count all the teams with the easiest overall schedule, and none of them won a Super Bowl. That includes three teams that won at least 14 games, and those three teams went 0-3 in the playoffs.

There were 10 teams that went 13-3, and out of those, four went to the Super Bowl (all lost, of course), and four others didn't even win a playoff game. The closest any of these 28 teams came to winning a championship was the 2011 Pats, and at least they were 23rd.

PS...and the 2 stiffer defenses ( Ari & Rams) the Jags lost both

Jags are 4-0 SU & ATS as a road dog in 2017 including in Pitt twice.....I won't count week 17, they had the division wrapped up.

The Cards & Rams games Jags were a road fav........Jags are 2-3 SU & ATS as a road fav

Any opinion on NFC?

The Jags were +2.5 at the Titans on New Year's Eve and lost, but yeah that was a game they didn't need.

The more i give thought to this game, I'm thinking the Pats may blow them out...(and cover) not committing just yet, still studying the match ups...

I feel very confident that the Pats are going to cover in this game as well and I love Philly to win straight up. I also have a large futures bet that I placed back in week eight (NE-PHI meet in SB) before Carson went down so perhaps I am a bit biased.

I think getting the Pats down at around three and Philly up around 10 would be a sweet teaser and much more confident in that result than messing with the totals.

Just my humble .02

The Computer Group said:

The reason Pitt put up 42 points is the Jags played prevent most of the 2nd half, or we would have seen another outcome like week 5, dontbbe fooled by the final score.

Click to expand...

Good point.

The Steelers are arguably way more talented than NE, and the Jags effectively beat them down twice. NE has Brady, Bellichick, and Gronk but looks like the Jags should at least be closer to even than +8.

Also in last year's Superbowl, NE was blown out, until the Falcons defense gassed in 2H.

If Jags can shut down Gronk and put in some long drives ie limiting NE possession, they should win comfortably.