Why Jacksonville is a good bet on Sunday
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
Three games remain. For us bettors, that means only six potential full-game spread and total bets for the rest of the football season ... yikes! Always remember: Never bet a game just for action. Just because there is a big game on TV doesn't mean you have to force a bet. If you don't think you have an edge, feel free to sit back, relax and hoist a few brews as you watch some stress-free football.
With that said, I have one pick for you this weekend.
There are a few reasons I like Jacksonville here. The first is that they are getting more than a touchdown. Dating back to 2003, teams getting at least seven points in the playoffs have done well against the spread. This is especially true if you eliminate the wild-card round from your sample.
It makes sense that teams in the final three rounds have done well against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, as they're (generally) strong teams and deserve to be there. You'd imagine that games between the last handful of NFL teams remaining would be closely fought battles, and based off this data, we find that has indeed been the case.
When looking at teams getting 40 percent of bets or less, we find that betting against the public remains a profitable endeavor in the postseason. As of Tuesday, the Jaguars are getting only 39 percent of bets as nearly double-digit 'dogs.
Perhaps the trend I like the most, though, is that underperforming teams have dominated in the postseason. This is based off Pythagorean plus/minus, a theory I touched on a few weeks back. Based off their point differential, the Jaguars should have a better record than they do. Most of the time, these teams don't make the playoffs, as you would expect. This season, the Jaguars were the only playoff team with a negative Pythagorean plus/minus, while the Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills all had win percentages of .100 or higher than they should have.
At +9, there are plenty of reasons to bet on the Jags. I'm genuinely interested in seeing whether they can hit +10 at some point in the week. Given the public's deserved love of the New England Patriots, I'd say there is a fair chance it reaches double digits. I'll be waiting to see which direction the line heads before locking in my bet, as the potential reward for +10 is greater than the risk of moving from +9 to +8.5.
Mark Gallant
ESPN INSIDER
Three games remain. For us bettors, that means only six potential full-game spread and total bets for the rest of the football season ... yikes! Always remember: Never bet a game just for action. Just because there is a big game on TV doesn't mean you have to force a bet. If you don't think you have an edge, feel free to sit back, relax and hoist a few brews as you watch some stress-free football.
With that said, I have one pick for you this weekend.
There are a few reasons I like Jacksonville here. The first is that they are getting more than a touchdown. Dating back to 2003, teams getting at least seven points in the playoffs have done well against the spread. This is especially true if you eliminate the wild-card round from your sample.
It makes sense that teams in the final three rounds have done well against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, as they're (generally) strong teams and deserve to be there. You'd imagine that games between the last handful of NFL teams remaining would be closely fought battles, and based off this data, we find that has indeed been the case.
When looking at teams getting 40 percent of bets or less, we find that betting against the public remains a profitable endeavor in the postseason. As of Tuesday, the Jaguars are getting only 39 percent of bets as nearly double-digit 'dogs.
Perhaps the trend I like the most, though, is that underperforming teams have dominated in the postseason. This is based off Pythagorean plus/minus, a theory I touched on a few weeks back. Based off their point differential, the Jaguars should have a better record than they do. Most of the time, these teams don't make the playoffs, as you would expect. This season, the Jaguars were the only playoff team with a negative Pythagorean plus/minus, while the Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills all had win percentages of .100 or higher than they should have.
At +9, there are plenty of reasons to bet on the Jags. I'm genuinely interested in seeing whether they can hit +10 at some point in the week. Given the public's deserved love of the New England Patriots, I'd say there is a fair chance it reaches double digits. I'll be waiting to see which direction the line heads before locking in my bet, as the potential reward for +10 is greater than the risk of moving from +9 to +8.5.
