How to bet AFC, NFC title games
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for both championship games on Sunday. Plus, John Parolin provides the top prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-7.5)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent pick New England
Phil Steele
The Patriots have now covered six straight home games and are on a 10-1 ATS run overall. The Jaguars are coming off a big road win and are traveling again. They're also in their third playoff contest, with the previous two going down to the wire. New England, meanwhile, has had a bye and a romp at home the last two weeks. Jacksonville is 12-6 versus my No. 30-rated schedule, while New England is 14-3 versus my No. 15-toughest schedule. There is no doubt that the Patriots have a huge edge at quarterback with Tom Brady versus Blake Bortles. While Bortles looked good last week, he is converting just 53 percent of his passes in the playoffs this season with just 151 yards per game. There is no doubt New England has the edge on offense, as its 397 yards per game is the best in the NFL.
Jacksonville has the No. 3 defense in the NFL in yards per game, and New England is 28th, but did you know that since Nov. 26, the Patriots have allowed just 300.6 yards per game with the defense recording 33 sacks, while "Sacksonville" has yielded 341 yards per game with just 19 sacks? New England also has my No. 2-rated special teams versus the Jaguars' 20th-ranked unit. New England has five Super Bowl titles under Bill Belichick and when they have been the No. 1 seed, New England is 5-0 in the AFC title game. Jacksonville has not even been to the playoffs since 2007, and this is its first AFC title game since 1999. Do not be concerned if it is close at the half, as the Patriots have had an 80-25 point edge in the second half of their last four playoff games. The situation, home edge, playoff experience, offense, special teams and even current defensive form all favor the Patriots, and they're not even laying double-digits.
ATS pick: New England -7.5
Warren Sharp
The Jaguars' weak spot defensively this season has been their run defense, where they rank 26th as compared to No. 1 against the. While their run defense has improved, it has allowed a 46 percent success rate since Week 14, which ranks 23rd in that stretch, and would be below average over the course of the season. The strength of the Jaguars defense is against the pass, but that strength can be exploited by a team like the Patriots, who infrequently use three (or more) WRs.
Using Sharp Football Stats research this week, I found that while the Jaguars pass defense ranks No. 1 in success rate (39 percent), No. 1 in yards per attempt (5.0) and No. 2 in passer rating (59) on all passes when an opponent lines up three or more WRs, their performance drops to No. 23 in success rate (55 percent), No. 28 in yards per attempt (9.6) and No. 18 in passer rating (99) when their opponent uses one to two WRs in formation.
The Jaguars offense isn't without its advantages, either. New England's third-down defense has been poor, ranking 27th through the first 16 weeks. The Patriots have been much better in the red zone, but they faced the fifth-easiest schedule of red zone offenses this year. I expect a battle in this game, but at this point in the week it is impossible to know exactly how Tom Brady's throwing hand will perform, as he hasn't participated in practice since injuring it. I will reluctantly pass, because there is a massive difference between a fully healthy Brady and a severely limited Brady, from both a game plan and performance standpoint.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
The Jaguars own the profile to not only cover the point spread, but beat the Patriots. It's a quarterback league with Brady as the poster boy, however, a stern pass rush is the next best thing. Certainly the Jacksonville owns the defense to give New England major issues. They're strong on all three fronts while recording 55 sacks (second-most) and 21 INTs. Meanwhile, they've built the offense around a power running game ranked first in the NFL with 143 yards per game. Of course, the Patriots rank 31st against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. However, the Patriots are the Patriots. Yards allowed are not touchdowns allowed. My numbers are right with the market, making the AFC Championship Game an easy pass.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Prediction: New England 27, Jacksonville 18
The pick: New England and the under -- NE -7.5, 46
John Parolin's props
75.5 rushing yards by Leonard Fournette (O/U -110)
It's conference championship weekend, so for the seventh straight year (literally) you're probably reading or hearing about how Belichick takes away the other team's top weapon on offense. In the last six AFC championship games, no player gained more than 72 rushing yards against the Patriots' defense. It's an imperfect comparison, as Fournette means more to his team's offense than a C.J. Anderson, Ray Rice or DeAngelo Williams (in for an injured Le'Veon Bell last year). But it supports the overall point -- the other backs occupied less attention. Anderson had Peyton Manning and a productive group of receivers, Williams had Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, and even Rice had Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith.
Fournette simply doesn't have the other weapons to keep Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia up at night. If Blake Bortles wins in Foxborough, so be it, but the Patriots are far more likely to let him try to beat them than Fournette. Plus, lost in all of Fournette's success against Pittsburgh is his relative mortality everywhere else. Fournette has averaged 3.51 yards per rush this season in the 13 games he played that weren't against the Steelers. His average was 70.5 rush yards in those games, and he averaged at least 4 yards per rush in only two of those 13. That's not even the league average (4.1) -- he was well below average in 11 of his 13 games against all non-Steeler opponents. If Bortles wins it, fine, but Fournette won't get the chance.
The play: Under
280.5 passing yards by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
Here's where the matchup gets much harder for New England. Jacksonville's pass defense has been exceptional -- the Jaguars are allowing eight touchdowns with 16 interceptions on passes to wide receivers and lead the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt allowed and completions allowed to wideouts. Overall, the Jaguars' defense has allowed 6.0 yards per attempt this season, while Brady has a respectable 7.9. Using 6.95 yards per attempt as the benchmark, Brady needs to throw 41 passes to reach 281 yards. While this is a figure he has hit only four times in 17 games this season, his recent playoff performances (plus one other factor) suggest he'll do it again.
Since 2014, Brady is averaging 47.6 attempts per playoff game, well up from his 36.5 playoff average in the first 13 seasons of his career. In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, he has thrown 251 passes in his last five playoff games, the most by any QB in a five-game stretch in playoff history. Plus, while the attack-mode Jaguars have overwhelmed plenty of teams this season, they've also given up a league-high 11 touchdowns of at least 25 yards. There are some yards to be had, and it's not like playing top defenses has intimidated Brady before. He's 3-0 in the playoffs against teams in the top two in scoring defense (like the Jaguars are), completing 71 percent of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The last time he faced a top-two team in scoring defense in the playoffs was in Super Bowl XLIX, a game during which he threw 50 pass attempts.
The play: Over
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent pick Minnesota
Phil Steele
In the Super Bowl era, the Eagles have been a home 'dog in the playoffs a total of four times and won all four games outright, including last week's upset of the Falcons. The Eagles are also 3-0 in the playoffs versus the Vikings. Philadelphia is 8-1 at home this season, but the Vikings are a solid 6-2 on the road. The Vikings are in their 10th NFC title game, and after winning their first four (then losing the Super Bowl), they have lost their past five. On the season, Minnesota is plus-79 yards per game and faced the 10th-toughest schedule, while Philadelphia is plus-59 yards per game against the 23rd-toughest schedule. The Vikings are the stronger team, but the Eagles are a dangerous 'dog, so I will look at the total.
The Eagles offense averaged 391 yards per game with Carson Wentz as the starting quarterback and just 278 yards per game with Nick Foles at the helm. The Eagles defense got healthier at the end of the year, and that combination has resulted in 20 total points over their last three games. Minnesota has the best defense in the NFL, but the Vikings offense has averaged just 329 yards per game on the road as opposed to 387 yards per game at home. The offensive line allowed 20 sacks on the road during the regular season and just seven at home. With Case Keenum and Foles at quarterback versus two of the NFL's best defenses, I expect a tight defensive struggle with the team that makes the fewest mistakes winning. Therefore, I like the under.
ATS pick: Under 39
Erin Rynning
Well, if the Eagles take on the underdog role, they get their chance in an even bigger way back on their home turf. The Eagles are a multitalented team on all levels of the football field. Certainly this team isn't a one-trick pony, and its defense is top-notch. Yes, the Vikings are a dominant team, but their offensive line will find it difficult against the treacherous Eagles front. Meanwhile, the Vikings are so ridiculously talented with their defense, this game will quickly take on a field position, field goal type of atmosphere.
Pick: Vikings team total under 21
Warren Sharp
The Eagles will be looking to lean on the run game, but I'm not sure that they will have enough success in doing so. On the season, the Eagles rank 17th in run efficiency but that has come against the fifth easiest schedule. Since Week 14, despite playing no run defenses which rank inside the top 15, the Eagles have produced a rushing success rate of just 36 percent, ranking 31st in the NFL. The Vikings run defense ranks No. 5 despite facing the fourth-most difficult schedule of run offenses. This will force Nick Foles to produce through the air, but he is one of the NFL's worst third-down and deep passers in the league this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings will be severely tested against the No. 3 third-down defense in the league of the Eagles. Minnesota has not faced a defense as stingy on this critical down all season, and the only strong third down defenses the Vikings have faced on the road (No. 6 Steelers, No. 12 Redskins, No. 14 Panthers) they struggled immensely, dropping two of three games. Ultimately, though, I believe the Vikings defense will be too much.
ATS pick: Lean Vikings -3
Mike Clay
Prediction: Minnesota 21, Philadelphia 20
The pick: Philadelphia and the over -- PHI +3, 39
John Parolin's props
69.5 receiving yards by Adam Thielen (O/U -110)
Thielen has put up incredible numbers in this 2017 breakout season, blowing away the career averages in catches and yards Randy Moss put up. He has emerged as Keenum's favorite target, seeing a team-high 132 attempts from Keenum and justifying them with an 8.9 yards-per-target average. Thielen's season averages would leave him needing eight targets to hit 70 yards in a season during which Thielen has seen 8.6 per game.
The game script helps Thielen too. The Eagles sport the league's best run defense, allowing a league-low 1,267 yards (less than 80 per game). Given that Minnesota's 3.91 yards per rush ranked 23rd this season, the Vikings may not have a choice but to pass. Thielen got his high target volume on an offense that was the second-most run-heavy in the NFL last season (45 percent of plays). If the Vikings struggle to run the ball, he'll get even more looks against a defense that ranked 27th in completions allowed to wide receivers last season.
The play: Over
47.5 receiving yards by Zach Ertz (O/U -110)
At some point, Foles might have to do something, right? Foles' average completion was 3.6 yards downfield against Atlanta in the divisional playoff. He didn't hit a single throw more than 15 yards downfield. The game was a master class in how to protect your quarterback from himself -- the Eagle with the most catches was running back Corey Clement. At halftime, Clement had twice as many catches (four) as any other player. Foles' average throwing distance on those four catches: exactly zero yards downfield. He could do that against a Falcons defense that ranked 28th in receiving yards allowed to running backs. He won't find the Vikings' defense as generous -- Minnesota ranks in the top three in receiving yards by running backs (third), overall yards after catch per reception (second) and overall yards per reception (second). Any way you slice it, Foles will have to take more risks against Minnesota.
On the one hand, this could be promising for Ertz's usage. He's averaging 8.9 yards per target from Foles on throws at least 10 yards downfield -- highest of any Eagle. But while he's the most consistent option Foles has to move the ball, that's also where the Vikings' defense might be the strongest. Between ultra-athletic linebackers like Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks and safety Harrison Smith, Minnesota is averaging 5.47 yards per attempt allowed to tight ends this season, a full half-yard better than any other defense. The Vikings have allowed a paltry 596 passing yards to tight ends this season, a figure that works out to less than 38 per game. Given the already-present question marks at quarterback, the matchup just isn't good enough for Ertz.
The play: Under
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning, Warren Sharp and Mike Clay) are here to provide analysis and best bets for both championship games on Sunday. Plus, John Parolin provides the top prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-7.5)
Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent pick New England
Phil Steele
The Patriots have now covered six straight home games and are on a 10-1 ATS run overall. The Jaguars are coming off a big road win and are traveling again. They're also in their third playoff contest, with the previous two going down to the wire. New England, meanwhile, has had a bye and a romp at home the last two weeks. Jacksonville is 12-6 versus my No. 30-rated schedule, while New England is 14-3 versus my No. 15-toughest schedule. There is no doubt that the Patriots have a huge edge at quarterback with Tom Brady versus Blake Bortles. While Bortles looked good last week, he is converting just 53 percent of his passes in the playoffs this season with just 151 yards per game. There is no doubt New England has the edge on offense, as its 397 yards per game is the best in the NFL.
Jacksonville has the No. 3 defense in the NFL in yards per game, and New England is 28th, but did you know that since Nov. 26, the Patriots have allowed just 300.6 yards per game with the defense recording 33 sacks, while "Sacksonville" has yielded 341 yards per game with just 19 sacks? New England also has my No. 2-rated special teams versus the Jaguars' 20th-ranked unit. New England has five Super Bowl titles under Bill Belichick and when they have been the No. 1 seed, New England is 5-0 in the AFC title game. Jacksonville has not even been to the playoffs since 2007, and this is its first AFC title game since 1999. Do not be concerned if it is close at the half, as the Patriots have had an 80-25 point edge in the second half of their last four playoff games. The situation, home edge, playoff experience, offense, special teams and even current defensive form all favor the Patriots, and they're not even laying double-digits.
ATS pick: New England -7.5
Warren Sharp
The Jaguars' weak spot defensively this season has been their run defense, where they rank 26th as compared to No. 1 against the. While their run defense has improved, it has allowed a 46 percent success rate since Week 14, which ranks 23rd in that stretch, and would be below average over the course of the season. The strength of the Jaguars defense is against the pass, but that strength can be exploited by a team like the Patriots, who infrequently use three (or more) WRs.
Using Sharp Football Stats research this week, I found that while the Jaguars pass defense ranks No. 1 in success rate (39 percent), No. 1 in yards per attempt (5.0) and No. 2 in passer rating (59) on all passes when an opponent lines up three or more WRs, their performance drops to No. 23 in success rate (55 percent), No. 28 in yards per attempt (9.6) and No. 18 in passer rating (99) when their opponent uses one to two WRs in formation.
The Jaguars offense isn't without its advantages, either. New England's third-down defense has been poor, ranking 27th through the first 16 weeks. The Patriots have been much better in the red zone, but they faced the fifth-easiest schedule of red zone offenses this year. I expect a battle in this game, but at this point in the week it is impossible to know exactly how Tom Brady's throwing hand will perform, as he hasn't participated in practice since injuring it. I will reluctantly pass, because there is a massive difference between a fully healthy Brady and a severely limited Brady, from both a game plan and performance standpoint.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning
The Jaguars own the profile to not only cover the point spread, but beat the Patriots. It's a quarterback league with Brady as the poster boy, however, a stern pass rush is the next best thing. Certainly the Jacksonville owns the defense to give New England major issues. They're strong on all three fronts while recording 55 sacks (second-most) and 21 INTs. Meanwhile, they've built the offense around a power running game ranked first in the NFL with 143 yards per game. Of course, the Patriots rank 31st against the run, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. However, the Patriots are the Patriots. Yards allowed are not touchdowns allowed. My numbers are right with the market, making the AFC Championship Game an easy pass.
Pick: Pass
Mike Clay
Prediction: New England 27, Jacksonville 18
The pick: New England and the under -- NE -7.5, 46
John Parolin's props
75.5 rushing yards by Leonard Fournette (O/U -110)
It's conference championship weekend, so for the seventh straight year (literally) you're probably reading or hearing about how Belichick takes away the other team's top weapon on offense. In the last six AFC championship games, no player gained more than 72 rushing yards against the Patriots' defense. It's an imperfect comparison, as Fournette means more to his team's offense than a C.J. Anderson, Ray Rice or DeAngelo Williams (in for an injured Le'Veon Bell last year). But it supports the overall point -- the other backs occupied less attention. Anderson had Peyton Manning and a productive group of receivers, Williams had Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, and even Rice had Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith.
Fournette simply doesn't have the other weapons to keep Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia up at night. If Blake Bortles wins in Foxborough, so be it, but the Patriots are far more likely to let him try to beat them than Fournette. Plus, lost in all of Fournette's success against Pittsburgh is his relative mortality everywhere else. Fournette has averaged 3.51 yards per rush this season in the 13 games he played that weren't against the Steelers. His average was 70.5 rush yards in those games, and he averaged at least 4 yards per rush in only two of those 13. That's not even the league average (4.1) -- he was well below average in 11 of his 13 games against all non-Steeler opponents. If Bortles wins it, fine, but Fournette won't get the chance.
The play: Under
280.5 passing yards by Tom Brady (O/U -110)
Here's where the matchup gets much harder for New England. Jacksonville's pass defense has been exceptional -- the Jaguars are allowing eight touchdowns with 16 interceptions on passes to wide receivers and lead the league in completion percentage, yards per attempt allowed and completions allowed to wideouts. Overall, the Jaguars' defense has allowed 6.0 yards per attempt this season, while Brady has a respectable 7.9. Using 6.95 yards per attempt as the benchmark, Brady needs to throw 41 passes to reach 281 yards. While this is a figure he has hit only four times in 17 games this season, his recent playoff performances (plus one other factor) suggest he'll do it again.
Since 2014, Brady is averaging 47.6 attempts per playoff game, well up from his 36.5 playoff average in the first 13 seasons of his career. In fact, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, he has thrown 251 passes in his last five playoff games, the most by any QB in a five-game stretch in playoff history. Plus, while the attack-mode Jaguars have overwhelmed plenty of teams this season, they've also given up a league-high 11 touchdowns of at least 25 yards. There are some yards to be had, and it's not like playing top defenses has intimidated Brady before. He's 3-0 in the playoffs against teams in the top two in scoring defense (like the Jaguars are), completing 71 percent of his passes with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The last time he faced a top-two team in scoring defense in the playoffs was in Super Bowl XLIX, a game during which he threw 50 pass attempts.
The play: Over
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent pick Minnesota
Phil Steele
In the Super Bowl era, the Eagles have been a home 'dog in the playoffs a total of four times and won all four games outright, including last week's upset of the Falcons. The Eagles are also 3-0 in the playoffs versus the Vikings. Philadelphia is 8-1 at home this season, but the Vikings are a solid 6-2 on the road. The Vikings are in their 10th NFC title game, and after winning their first four (then losing the Super Bowl), they have lost their past five. On the season, Minnesota is plus-79 yards per game and faced the 10th-toughest schedule, while Philadelphia is plus-59 yards per game against the 23rd-toughest schedule. The Vikings are the stronger team, but the Eagles are a dangerous 'dog, so I will look at the total.
The Eagles offense averaged 391 yards per game with Carson Wentz as the starting quarterback and just 278 yards per game with Nick Foles at the helm. The Eagles defense got healthier at the end of the year, and that combination has resulted in 20 total points over their last three games. Minnesota has the best defense in the NFL, but the Vikings offense has averaged just 329 yards per game on the road as opposed to 387 yards per game at home. The offensive line allowed 20 sacks on the road during the regular season and just seven at home. With Case Keenum and Foles at quarterback versus two of the NFL's best defenses, I expect a tight defensive struggle with the team that makes the fewest mistakes winning. Therefore, I like the under.
ATS pick: Under 39
Erin Rynning
Well, if the Eagles take on the underdog role, they get their chance in an even bigger way back on their home turf. The Eagles are a multitalented team on all levels of the football field. Certainly this team isn't a one-trick pony, and its defense is top-notch. Yes, the Vikings are a dominant team, but their offensive line will find it difficult against the treacherous Eagles front. Meanwhile, the Vikings are so ridiculously talented with their defense, this game will quickly take on a field position, field goal type of atmosphere.
Pick: Vikings team total under 21
Warren Sharp
The Eagles will be looking to lean on the run game, but I'm not sure that they will have enough success in doing so. On the season, the Eagles rank 17th in run efficiency but that has come against the fifth easiest schedule. Since Week 14, despite playing no run defenses which rank inside the top 15, the Eagles have produced a rushing success rate of just 36 percent, ranking 31st in the NFL. The Vikings run defense ranks No. 5 despite facing the fourth-most difficult schedule of run offenses. This will force Nick Foles to produce through the air, but he is one of the NFL's worst third-down and deep passers in the league this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings will be severely tested against the No. 3 third-down defense in the league of the Eagles. Minnesota has not faced a defense as stingy on this critical down all season, and the only strong third down defenses the Vikings have faced on the road (No. 6 Steelers, No. 12 Redskins, No. 14 Panthers) they struggled immensely, dropping two of three games. Ultimately, though, I believe the Vikings defense will be too much.
ATS pick: Lean Vikings -3
Mike Clay
Prediction: Minnesota 21, Philadelphia 20
The pick: Philadelphia and the over -- PHI +3, 39
John Parolin's props
69.5 receiving yards by Adam Thielen (O/U -110)
Thielen has put up incredible numbers in this 2017 breakout season, blowing away the career averages in catches and yards Randy Moss put up. He has emerged as Keenum's favorite target, seeing a team-high 132 attempts from Keenum and justifying them with an 8.9 yards-per-target average. Thielen's season averages would leave him needing eight targets to hit 70 yards in a season during which Thielen has seen 8.6 per game.
The game script helps Thielen too. The Eagles sport the league's best run defense, allowing a league-low 1,267 yards (less than 80 per game). Given that Minnesota's 3.91 yards per rush ranked 23rd this season, the Vikings may not have a choice but to pass. Thielen got his high target volume on an offense that was the second-most run-heavy in the NFL last season (45 percent of plays). If the Vikings struggle to run the ball, he'll get even more looks against a defense that ranked 27th in completions allowed to wide receivers last season.
The play: Over
47.5 receiving yards by Zach Ertz (O/U -110)
At some point, Foles might have to do something, right? Foles' average completion was 3.6 yards downfield against Atlanta in the divisional playoff. He didn't hit a single throw more than 15 yards downfield. The game was a master class in how to protect your quarterback from himself -- the Eagle with the most catches was running back Corey Clement. At halftime, Clement had twice as many catches (four) as any other player. Foles' average throwing distance on those four catches: exactly zero yards downfield. He could do that against a Falcons defense that ranked 28th in receiving yards allowed to running backs. He won't find the Vikings' defense as generous -- Minnesota ranks in the top three in receiving yards by running backs (third), overall yards after catch per reception (second) and overall yards per reception (second). Any way you slice it, Foles will have to take more risks against Minnesota.
On the one hand, this could be promising for Ertz's usage. He's averaging 8.9 yards per target from Foles on throws at least 10 yards downfield -- highest of any Eagle. But while he's the most consistent option Foles has to move the ball, that's also where the Vikings' defense might be the strongest. Between ultra-athletic linebackers like Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks and safety Harrison Smith, Minnesota is averaging 5.47 yards per attempt allowed to tight ends this season, a full half-yard better than any other defense. The Vikings have allowed a paltry 596 passing yards to tight ends this season, a figure that works out to less than 38 per game. Given the already-present question marks at quarterback, the matchup just isn't good enough for Ertz.
The play: Under
