Chonce (Super Bowl) 52

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YTD: 90-70 + 16.15 units

Last week: 1-3 -
3.7 units -
link


Playoffs: 7-6-1 -2.2 units


ADD:

Super Bowl 52 UNDER 48.5 - 2 units

I don't know if this line will go up or down but I think it is good value now. Not sure about the game. The look ahead line was 7.5 so perhaps the close game in NE, Brady's thumb, Gronk's brain and Foles' amazing game is pushing that down to 5 or so. I am tempted to take NE, but their SB's are always close.
 

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Dion Lewis First Rush OVER 3.5 yards first carry -- .5 units (+100)

Jay Ajayi OVER 2 receptions -- .5 units
 

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Tom Brady distance of first TD pass UNDER 12.5 yards - 2 units (-115)
 

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Receiving Yards: Agholar + 24.5 vs Brandin Cooks - (-115) 1 unit


There is a 20 yard per game difference over the season. But Nelson got better as targets increased, it just seems like too much. The NE defense will give up yardage, moreso than points. So I think there are some angles for PHI yardage props (I will avoid scoring ones). Of course, the price of this is reflected in most of these lines, which get sharper as games approach.
 

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Total Sacks by Both Teams OVER 4.5 (-115) - 2 units

These teams combined for an average of 5, which NE getting 42 and PHI with 38. Plus, NE has 11 sacks in the post-season, so they are getting home. Philly only has 4, so the average is still 5. So I think there is a slight, but definitive enough edge here. Feel like the line should be 5.
 

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Add:

Total FGs OVER 3.5 (-115) - .5 units
NE First Downs - 2 (-115) - .5 units
Rushing Attempts Blount OVER 7.5 (+110) - 1 unit


Blount has an average of 10 carries per season but this has gone down a bit since Nov. 5 when Ajayi arrived. But still, since Ajayi Blount has gone 7.5 carries 5 of 8 times since and is averaging 8.5. And I am getting + 110. The team will want to the run the ball. I have no clue what the Pat's will cook up on defense for a game-plan, but they can be run on a bit. Alan Branch has been a healthy scratch, which is not good. Some depth pieces like Valentine, Rivers are out. They are relying on fringe practice squad guys: Lee, Rickey Jean Francois both see a lot of snaps. Geneo Grisson is on the roster.




Card

UNDER 48.5 - 2 unit
NE ML (-200) 2 units to win 1



N Algolar + 24.5 Rec Yard vs Brandin Cooks - .5 units (-115)
D Lewis first carry OVER .5 units - (+100)
Total Sacks (both teams OVER 4.5 (-115) - 2 units
Longest reception Chris Hogan OVER 18.5 - .5 units
Total FGs OVER 3.5 (-115) - 1 unit
NE First Downs - 2 (-115) - 1 unit
Rushing Attempts Blount OVER 7.5 (+110) - 1 unit

 

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0-2 for the game.


5-1 on props, with first downs pending (too lazy and sad to look it up). Overall lost though because my bigger bets lost.

Still great game, great season at TheRX. Until next season (or if I do b-ball, unlikely).
 

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