Super Bowl 52------Brady vs Foles

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Down to the last NFL game of the season, damn that sucks, but at least we have a lot to look forward to this spring......here in Pa, we're getting online poker, online casinos, online lottery by this summer, & PASPA should be overturned by the Supreme court, we shall have legal sports betting by next NFL season, so lots to look forward to, & let's not forget world cup soccer this June, I absolutely love it, but its only once every 4 years.



Pats -5.5 vs Eagles.........

Brady going for his 6th ring, he's trying to tie the GOAT of the NBA, Jordan with 6 rings.

Brady vs Foles looks laughable, but its not......Eagles have the better defense, & that what got the ball rolling down 0-7 to the Vikings, a 50 yard pick 6.

Eagles defense will keep them in this game, & as long as Foles plays well like he did vs Minny, there won't be a problem. Philly must have had the reigns on Foles past few games, cuz he looked like crap.

Brady will play like he usually plays, with intensity & a little help from the refs, Brady could win his 6th ring. Gronk was injured vs Minny, & with 2 weeks off, will be interesting to see if he will play in the SB.

Gronk is a big weapon for Brady, & will need him to beat the Eagles IMO......although he didntbneed Gronk in the 2nd half come back over the Jags.

With 2 weeks away, still plenty of trends & stats to look over, but I did make a play on Philly already at +5.5......will play the total also, still looking everything over......if anyone has any angles, trends or SB systems, please add them in here, TIA!


Official play so far:

Philly +5.5
 

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Except last year miracle come back in OT... All Pats Superbowl wins were very close no more than 4 pts.... This seem high from the outlook
 

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Clipped this article in 2012

An effective method to predict future outcomes is to study past results of similar situations. Thus, the goal is to better understand the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion by identifying meaningful shared statistical characteristics of those teams. In this new age NFL where quarterback play and the passing game is as important as ever, here are three key statistical parameters each of the past four champs fall under.

[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
  1. Pass Efficiency Ratio greater than 1.20: The ratio compares net yards per passing attempt and net yards per passing attempt allowed (NY/PA divided by NY/PA allowed). A ratio equal to one indicates for every one yard an offense gains per pass attempt, the defense allowed one yard per pass attempt. In today’s aerial league, this performance measure captures arguably the two most important team qualities; the ability to pass the football and the ability to stop the pass. This season only three teams, the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks, boast a pass efficiency ratio greater than 1.20.
  2. Positive Turnover Margin: This statistic is the total number of forced turnovers minus the total number of turnovers committed. The ability to take care of the football and force the opposing offense into turnovers remains a crucial determinate in the outcome of football games. In 2012 alone, the team that won the turnover battle is 162-42-1 (.794) SU and 154-48-3 (.762) ATS.
  3. Positive Sack Differential: This statistic is the difference between a team’s total sacks on defense and sacks allowed on offense. The number helps to quantify the ability of the offensive line to protect the quarterback and the defensive line to get after the opposing quarterback. Sacks, which result in the rare scenario where a team gains negative yardage on a play, can change the complexion of drives and ultimately have a significant effect on the final score.
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
  1. Team
  1. Pass Eff.
  1. TO Margin
  1. Sack Diff.
2011 Giants
  1. 1.20
  1. 7
  1. 17
2010 Packers
  1. 1.31
  1. 10
  1. 9
2009 Saints
  1. 1.24
  1. 11
  1. 15
2008 Steelers
  1. 1.37
  1. 4
  1. 2
 

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Except last year miracle come back in OT... All Pats Superbowl wins were very close no more than 4 pts.... This seem high from the outlook

Was watching last years SB with my 2 cousins, they're brothers, & one had Atlanta & the other Pats......it was hilarious how the Atlanta backer was all smiles & Pats bettor was pissed off & how the roles switched.....but it was worse for the Atlanta bettors cuz it was a complete melt down right in front of their eyes. And my cousin that had the Pats was saying to everyone, I told you Pats would come back & win, lol!
 

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Clipped this article in 2012

An effective method to predict future outcomes is to study past results of similar situations. Thus, the goal is to better understand the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion by identifying meaningful shared statistical characteristics of those teams. In this new age NFL where quarterback play and the passing game is as important as ever, here are three key statistical parameters each of the past four champs fall under.

[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
  1. Pass Efficiency Ratio greater than 1.20: The ratio compares net yards per passing attempt and net yards per passing attempt allowed (NY/PA divided by NY/PA allowed). A ratio equal to one indicates for every one yard an offense gains per pass attempt, the defense allowed one yard per pass attempt. In today’s aerial league, this performance measure captures arguably the two most important team qualities; the ability to pass the football and the ability to stop the pass. This season only three teams, the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks, boast a pass efficiency ratio greater than 1.20.
  2. Positive Turnover Margin: This statistic is the total number of forced turnovers minus the total number of turnovers committed. The ability to take care of the football and force the opposing offense into turnovers remains a crucial determinate in the outcome of football games. In 2012 alone, the team that won the turnover battle is 162-42-1 (.794) SU and 154-48-3 (.762) ATS.
  3. Positive Sack Differential: This statistic is the difference between a team’s total sacks on defense and sacks allowed on offense. The number helps to quantify the ability of the offensive line to protect the quarterback and the defensive line to get after the opposing quarterback. Sacks, which result in the rare scenario where a team gains negative yardage on a play, can change the complexion of drives and ultimately have a significant effect on the final score.
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
Team
Pass Eff.
TO Margin
Sack Diff.
2011 Giants
1.20​
7​
17​
2010 Packers
1.31​
10​
9​
2009 Saints
1.24​
11​
15​
2008 Steelers
1.37​
4​
2​

Who's this years team?
 

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There have been 23 games played in London & Mexico combined, that's 46 teams......out of those 46 teams, 25 have made the playoffs, only 1 team has gone on to win the SB that same year......the Giants in 2007 over the Pats.

This year we had these teams play in London or Mexico:

Rams......lost to Atlanta in wildcard round

Saints......won over Carolina in wildcard round but lost a heart breaker to Vikings in divisionals

Vikings......won in miracle fashion in divionals

Jags......won against Bills in wildcard round, won over Pitt in divisional round

Patriots......won over Titans


Only team not to play in London or Mexico is Philly......does Philly win the SB?

Had this in my other thread........
 

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Finding trends all over the place:

Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this season.

Underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls.

The Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 5 points or more.

Pats are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
 

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What happens if Foles wins the SB, do the Eagles trade him? I'm sure Wentz will still be the starter no matter what.......but what do they do with Wentz?

Wentz is going from almost quitting the NFL to possibly winning the SB, this is like a Kurt Warner story.
 

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Official plays so far:

Philly +5.5

Philly ML (+185)



Taking a shot with Philly ML, I was back & fourth on Jags beating the Pats SU, & ended up with Jags +9, couldn't pull the trigger on Jags, but Philly is a different animal & if their offense plays 80% of how well they played vs Minny, they can beat the Pats......the Philly defense is what started the avalanche, but I don't know if Philly's defense can contain Brady.

Gronk should be back in 2 weeks......if Philly wants to win this game, their defense will have to create a few turnovers, & Foles will need to go toe to toe with Brady.

Philly's coaches can t be scared to run the offense full force like Jags did. Jags laid off the gas in the 4th Q, & you can't do that vs Brady & Pats.

Its a 4 quarter game, & if you font play it to.the fullest on both sides of the ball, Brady will make you pay with his patented come from behind win.
 

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The Jaqs lost the game at the end of the 1st half yesterday by taking a knee, your right Philly can't let up for the full 60 minutes

I played the Eagles +6 $1200 when it opened yesterday staying off the ML. The books have been giving 3-4 points for Foles instead of Wentz but as I said in the In game thread yesterday it's the coaching that makes the Eagles so good & foles has been around long enough he has learned to execute.

They had done it again here - I had NE as -2 pt fav in a neutral site

Going to be Mexico for the Game anybody know any good bars in Mazatlan?
 

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CG... i’m sure most people will figure it out but I know you meant Foles was at the point of considering walking away from the game and not Wentz.
 

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CG... i’m sure most people will figure it out but I know you meant Foles was at the point of considering walking away from the game and not Wentz.

Oh wow, yeah I did mess that up, lol......yeah meant Foles was about to quit.....a dislexic thought.
 

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The Jaqs lost the game at the end of the 1st half yesterday by taking a knee, your right Philly can't let up for the full 60 minutes

I played the Eagles +6 $1200 when it opened yesterday staying off the ML. The books have been giving 3-4 points for Foles instead of Wentz but as I said in the In game thread yesterday it's the coaching that makes the Eagles so good & foles has been around long enough he has learned to execute.

They had done it again here - I had NE as -2 pt fav in a neutral site

Going to be Mexico for the Game anybody know any good bars in Mazatlan?

Stay safe in Mexico, last place I would go now a days, good luck tho.

You received a good line at +6
 

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Oh wow, yeah I did mess that up, lol......yeah meant Foles was about to quit.....a dislexic thought.

Foles is under contract and he'll be back as the backup win or lose Super Bowl. It's possible he may have to play early season depending on the Wentz rehab progress.
 

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Foles is under contract and he'll be back as the backup win or lose Super Bowl. It's possible he may have to play early season depending on the Wentz rehab progress.

It will be wacky if Philly wins the SB, Foles continues to start like first 5 games next season & starts out 4-1, & then has to sit the bench after Wentz is ready ......that to me is insanity, but reality.
 

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SuperBowl MVP odds decimal

Brady 1.60
Foles 6.50

vs ML odds

NE 1.45
Eagles 2.9

Don't think its likely that Philly win the SB without MVP performance from Foles, so betting MVP for Foles appears to have better value than ML Eagles.
 

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SuperBowl MVP odds decimal

Brady 1.60
Foles 6.50

vs ML odds

NE 1.45
Eagles 2.9

Don't think its likely that Philly win the SB without MVP performance from Foles, so betting MVP for Foles appears to have better value than ML Eagles.

I know Eli received the MVP both times Giants beat the Pats in SB, but the Qb doesn't always win it......a defensive player can win it, the RB can win it, etc, Von Miller (linebacker) for Denver beating Carolina...........Malcolm Smith (linebacker) for Seattle in 2013 over Denver.......Santonio Holmes (receiver) for Pitt in 2008 over the Cards.......the Giants in 2007 held the undefeated 18-0 Pats to 14 points in the SB, why the NFL chose to give the MVP to Eli is beyond me, the entire defense for the Giants deserved it.
 

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