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Thread: Super Bowl 52------Brady vs Foles

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  1. #1 Super Bowl 52------Brady vs Foles 
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    Down to the last NFL game of the season, damn that sucks, but at least we have a lot to look forward to this spring......here in Pa, we're getting online poker, online casinos, online lottery by this summer, & PASPA should be overturned by the Supreme court, we shall have legal sports betting by next NFL season, so lots to look forward to, & let's not forget world cup soccer this June, I absolutely love it, but its only once every 4 years.



    Pats -5.5 vs Eagles.........

    Brady going for his 6th ring, he's trying to tie the GOAT of the NBA, Jordan with 6 rings.

    Brady vs Foles looks laughable, but its not......Eagles have the better defense, & that what got the ball rolling down 0-7 to the Vikings, a 50 yard pick 6.

    Eagles defense will keep them in this game, & as long as Foles plays well like he did vs Minny, there won't be a problem. Philly must have had the reigns on Foles past few games, cuz he looked like crap.

    Brady will play like he usually plays, with intensity & a little help from the refs, Brady could win his 6th ring. Gronk was injured vs Minny, & with 2 weeks off, will be interesting to see if he will play in the SB.

    Gronk is a big weapon for Brady, & will need him to beat the Eagles IMO......although he didntbneed Gronk in the 2nd half come back over the Jags.

    With 2 weeks away, still plenty of trends & stats to look over, but I did make a play on Philly already at +5.5......will play the total also, still looking everything over......if anyone has any angles, trends or SB systems, please add them in here, TIA!


    Official play so far:

    Philly +5.5
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  2. #2  
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    Super Bowl 25 all over again.
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  3. #3  
    We see the light PeePee's Avatar
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    Except last year miracle come back in OT... All Pats Superbowl wins were very close no more than 4 pts.... This seem high from the outlook
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  4. #4  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Clipped this article in 2012

    An effective method to predict future outcomes is to study past results of similar situations. Thus, the goal is to better understand the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion by identifying meaningful shared statistical characteristics of those teams. In this new age NFL where quarterback play and the passing game is as important as ever, here are three key statistical parameters each of the past four champs fall under.


    1. Pass Efficiency Ratio greater than 1.20: The ratio compares net yards per passing attempt and net yards per passing attempt allowed (NY/PA divided by NY/PA allowed). A ratio equal to one indicates for every one yard an offense gains per pass attempt, the defense allowed one yard per pass attempt. In today’s aerial league, this performance measure captures arguably the two most important team qualities; the ability to pass the football and the ability to stop the pass. This season only three teams, the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks, boast a pass efficiency ratio greater than 1.20.
    2. Positive Turnover Margin: This statistic is the total number of forced turnovers minus the total number of turnovers committed. The ability to take care of the football and force the opposing offense into turnovers remains a crucial determinate in the outcome of football games. In 2012 alone, the team that won the turnover battle is 162-42-1 (.794) SU and 154-48-3 (.762) ATS.
    3. Positive Sack Differential: This statistic is the difference between a team’s total sacks on defense and sacks allowed on offense. The number helps to quantify the ability of the offensive line to protect the quarterback and the defensive line to get after the opposing quarterback. Sacks, which result in the rare scenario where a team gains negative yardage on a play, can change the complexion of drives and ultimately have a significant effect on the final score.

    Team
    Pass Eff.
    TO Margin
    Sack Diff.
    2011 Giants
    1.20
    7
    17
    2010 Packers
    1.31
    10
    9
    2009 Saints
    1.24
    11
    15
    2008 Steelers
    1.37
    4
    2
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  5. #5  
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    Brady vs Foles.....lmbo
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  6. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeePee View Post
    Except last year miracle come back in OT... All Pats Superbowl wins were very close no more than 4 pts.... This seem high from the outlook
    Was watching last years SB with my 2 cousins, they're brothers, & one had Atlanta & the other Pats......it was hilarious how the Atlanta backer was all smiles & Pats bettor was pissed off & how the roles switched.....but it was worse for the Atlanta bettors cuz it was a complete melt down right in front of their eyes. And my cousin that had the Pats was saying to everyone, I told you Pats would come back & win, lol!
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerz View Post
    Clipped this article in 2012

    An effective method to predict future outcomes is to study past results of similar situations. Thus, the goal is to better understand the anatomy of a Super Bowl champion by identifying meaningful shared statistical characteristics of those teams. In this new age NFL where quarterback play and the passing game is as important as ever, here are three key statistical parameters each of the past four champs fall under.


    1. Pass Efficiency Ratio greater than 1.20: The ratio compares net yards per passing attempt and net yards per passing attempt allowed (NY/PA divided by NY/PA allowed). A ratio equal to one indicates for every one yard an offense gains per pass attempt, the defense allowed one yard per pass attempt. In today’s aerial league, this performance measure captures arguably the two most important team qualities; the ability to pass the football and the ability to stop the pass. This season only three teams, the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks, boast a pass efficiency ratio greater than 1.20.
    2. Positive Turnover Margin: This statistic is the total number of forced turnovers minus the total number of turnovers committed. The ability to take care of the football and force the opposing offense into turnovers remains a crucial determinate in the outcome of football games. In 2012 alone, the team that won the turnover battle is 162-42-1 (.794) SU and 154-48-3 (.762) ATS.
    3. Positive Sack Differential: This statistic is the difference between a team’s total sacks on defense and sacks allowed on offense. The number helps to quantify the ability of the offensive line to protect the quarterback and the defensive line to get after the opposing quarterback. Sacks, which result in the rare scenario where a team gains negative yardage on a play, can change the complexion of drives and ultimately have a significant effect on the final score.

    Team
    Pass Eff.
    TO Margin
    Sack Diff.
    2011 Giants
    1.20
    7
    17
    2010 Packers
    1.31
    10
    9
    2009 Saints
    1.24
    11
    15
    2008 Steelers
    1.37
    4
    2
    Who's this years team?
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  8. #8  
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    There have been 23 games played in London & Mexico combined, that's 46 teams......out of those 46 teams, 25 have made the playoffs, only 1 team has gone on to win the SB that same year......the Giants in 2007 over the Pats.

    This year we had these teams play in London or Mexico:

    Rams......lost to Atlanta in wildcard round

    Saints......won over Carolina in wildcard round but lost a heart breaker to Vikings in divisionals

    Vikings......won in miracle fashion in divionals

    Jags......won against Bills in wildcard round, won over Pitt in divisional round

    Patriots......won over Titans


    Only team not to play in London or Mexico is Philly......does Philly win the SB?

    Had this in my other thread........
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  9. #9  
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    Finding trends all over the place:

    Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this season.

    Underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls.

    The Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 5 points or more.

    Pats are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
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  10. #10  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    Super Bowl 25 all over again.
    More like SB39 without the spy cameras (we hope)
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  11. #11  
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    What happens if Foles wins the SB, do the Eagles trade him? I'm sure Wentz will still be the starter no matter what.......but what do they do with Wentz?

    Wentz is going from almost quitting the NFL to possibly winning the SB, this is like a Kurt Warner story.
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  12. #12  
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    Official plays so far:

    Philly +5.5

    Philly ML (+185)



    Taking a shot with Philly ML, I was back & fourth on Jags beating the Pats SU, & ended up with Jags +9, couldn't pull the trigger on Jags, but Philly is a different animal & if their offense plays 80% of how well they played vs Minny, they can beat the Pats......the Philly defense is what started the avalanche, but I don't know if Philly's defense can contain Brady.

    Gronk should be back in 2 weeks......if Philly wants to win this game, their defense will have to create a few turnovers, & Foles will need to go toe to toe with Brady.

    Philly's coaches can t be scared to run the offense full force like Jags did. Jags laid off the gas in the 4th Q, & you can't do that vs Brady & Pats.

    Its a 4 quarter game, & if you font play it to.the fullest on both sides of the ball, Brady will make you pay with his patented come from behind win.
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  13. #13  
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    The Jaqs lost the game at the end of the 1st half yesterday by taking a knee, your right Philly can't let up for the full 60 minutes

    I played the Eagles +6 $1200 when it opened yesterday staying off the ML. The books have been giving 3-4 points for Foles instead of Wentz but as I said in the In game thread yesterday it's the coaching that makes the Eagles so good & foles has been around long enough he has learned to execute.

    They had done it again here - I had NE as -2 pt fav in a neutral site

    Going to be Mexico for the Game anybody know any good bars in Mazatlan?
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  14. #14  
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    CG... iím sure most people will figure it out but I know you meant Foles was at the point of considering walking away from the game and not Wentz.
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by xflrejects View Post
    CG... i’m sure most people will figure it out but I know you meant Foles was at the point of considering walking away from the game and not Wentz.
    Oh wow, yeah I did mess that up, lol......yeah meant Foles was about to quit.....a dislexic thought.
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  16. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by powerz View Post
    The Jaqs lost the game at the end of the 1st half yesterday by taking a knee, your right Philly can't let up for the full 60 minutes

    I played the Eagles +6 $1200 when it opened yesterday staying off the ML. The books have been giving 3-4 points for Foles instead of Wentz but as I said in the In game thread yesterday it's the coaching that makes the Eagles so good & foles has been around long enough he has learned to execute.

    They had done it again here - I had NE as -2 pt fav in a neutral site

    Going to be Mexico for the Game anybody know any good bars in Mazatlan?
    Stay safe in Mexico, last place I would go now a days, good luck tho.

    You received a good line at +6
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Computer Group View Post
    Oh wow, yeah I did mess that up, lol......yeah meant Foles was about to quit.....a dislexic thought.
    Foles is under contract and he'll be back as the backup win or lose Super Bowl. It's possible he may have to play early season depending on the Wentz rehab progress.
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  18. #18  
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyMags View Post
    Foles is under contract and he'll be back as the backup win or lose Super Bowl. It's possible he may have to play early season depending on the Wentz rehab progress.
    It will be wacky if Philly wins the SB, Foles continues to start like first 5 games next season & starts out 4-1, & then has to sit the bench after Wentz is ready ......that to me is insanity, but reality.
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  19. #19  
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    SuperBowl MVP odds decimal

    Brady 1.60
    Foles 6.50

    vs ML odds

    NE 1.45
    Eagles 2.9

    Don't think its likely that Philly win the SB without MVP performance from Foles, so betting MVP for Foles appears to have better value than ML Eagles.
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  20. #20  
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    Quote Originally Posted by croaker View Post
    SuperBowl MVP odds decimal

    Brady 1.60
    Foles 6.50

    vs ML odds

    NE 1.45
    Eagles 2.9

    Don't think its likely that Philly win the SB without MVP performance from Foles, so betting MVP for Foles appears to have better value than ML Eagles.
    I know Eli received the MVP both times Giants beat the Pats in SB, but the Qb doesn't always win it......a defensive player can win it, the RB can win it, etc, Von Miller (linebacker) for Denver beating Carolina...........Malcolm Smith (linebacker) for Seattle in 2013 over Denver.......Santonio Holmes (receiver) for Pitt in 2008 over the Cards.......the Giants in 2007 held the undefeated 18-0 Pats to 14 points in the SB, why the NFL chose to give the MVP to Eli is beyond me, the entire defense for the Giants deserved it.
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  21. #21  
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    Patriots will wear their road white jerseys in Super Bowl LII against the Philadelphia Eagles, per @MikeReiss. The team wearing white jerseys has won the Super Bowl in 12 of the previous 13 seasons, per @EpKap.
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  22. #22  
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    biggest layup of all time for brady

    philly's defense did amazing but they have no idea what brady can do to them
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  23. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Computer Group View Post
    Finding trends all over the place:

    Underdogs are 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this season.

    Underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls.

    The Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 5 points or more.

    Pats are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.


    Trends have factors hidden in them that fade public opinion from prior betting habits.

    For trends to be predictable, they need built-in stats that falsely provide the end result perception for the bettor to lose.

    You cant have underdogs go 9-1 without first having a false favorite to be called a favorite. In all football games there was betting history that produced the perception of a team being bet on consistently. Whether its their winning record, the winning margins, or the team that wins money ATS when favored.
    Pats are the extreme profile. Most teams that are favored have all the same betting characteristics. Occasionally there are teams that public doesnt like that is favored and the dog gets all the action.

    Vikes were hot and bet on hard. Weeks of winning streak produced the heavy betting on them. Even with Keenum at QB they looked like they were unbeatable. Since Bradford was the original starter and was injured, Keenum had no pressure to replace a starter that was never a threat in his last several years. Vikings also had a "dominating defense" to go with the low-risk of losing.

    Now we have the Eagles who suffered that similar fate in losing Wentz. All of a sudden, Foles played like he was reborn. Is this another Kurt Warner story?

    Foles faced 2 winning playoff teams (with one (1) unproven quarterback) who had winning records. Falcons lose in 15-10 game to Eagles.

    Pats played Falcons again in October and won 23-7.

    Atlanta doesn't have the defense that Philly has. Can Philly stop Brady? Falcons couldn't.

    Brady still has some magic, but with age, is bound to run out of that magic. The only way that happens, is if the Eagles do what it takes on defense. Foles will be chased like the Pats pressured Bortles. Question is...can Foles play better than Bortles did. In a neutral-site dome I think so.
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  24. #24  
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    Quote Originally Posted by halekulani View Post
    biggest layup of all time for brady

    philly's defense did amazing but they have no idea what brady can do to them
    Yeah, they must've never seen him play. They'll enter the game having studied no film, having never spoken or thought of him and they'll be the first people on planet earth to not see it coming.

    You lose money when you bet with this kind of broken sensationalist headline-style logic. And that's not even taking into account the fact that it's not just Brady. This site isn't about the usual narrative marketing bullshit so let's be straight-it's Belichick, and the team. Brady is a great quarterback but any great QB could've won 5 rings with that team and that historically shit division. If Philly doesn't see something coming it'll be a surprise to us, too.

    And don't act like a good defense hasn't fucked up Brady before. It's happened all the way from Denver in what? 05? To the Giants embarrassing him twice. He's great but he's not nearly as good as the marketing yuppies would have you believe. Get in his face and he's not even top ten all time.
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  25. #25  
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    Philly guy here. I have the utmost respect for Brady and Belichek. Unlike a lot of fans outside of NE, I really enjoy watching Tom and Co. do what they do. Guy was a 6th rounder and plays with a chip on his shoulder 18 years later still. He is a master of the comeback and rallying the Pats to do amazing things. That's the essence of sport to me. I love it.

    With all that said. I bleed Philly green. Always have and always will. The homer in me can see all sorts of angles for Philly to take this thing on Feb 4th. I believe they can and I will probably come close to a heart attack watching the damn game. I have been behind Nick Foles since Wentz went down. I knew he was capable of good things. But I am not depending on it, nor factoring it into the SB. Nick will need to put together at least a half season of consistent good play before he enters into any capping I do. What I am hoping he can accomplish on Feb 4th, is not lose the game with a fumble or a ill advised pass at a critical point in the game. As a homer, and as a believer that he is capable of good things - I lean towards Nick not losing the game. I am certainly not counting on him to win it though. If he does... I will jump thru my roof... but I ain't counting on it.

    What I am counting on is the Philly D to keep the game close. If Foles doesn't lose the game and the Philly D keeps the Pats in check - we gotta shot at this thing. Of course when Brady is coming with guns blazing in the 4th I am going to be shitting bricks. I know what the man can do when the game is on the line. Ain't nobody better. But this ain't Brady vs. the Eagles. I think Philly has enough to win the other battles on the field and bring home the first football championship in 58 years.
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