4 Tuesday w/analysis

I haven't posted all year but will try and post every day in the second half and into the playoffs
New Jersey and Dallas are to win 2 units and SJ and Ott are both 2 unit bets.

New Jersey -105 over BUFFALO
7:00 PM EST. OT included. We once again point out how results and not performances influence both the line and market and this is another perfect example of that. Buffalo went into the break on a three-game winning streak on the West Coast against Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver while outscoring that trio 11-1. As a result, Robin Lehner was awarded one of the three stars of the week but chances are that after all that adulation, Lehner will go back to being the liability that he usually is. Buffalo got some hot goaltending but let’s not forget they lost 7-1 to Dallas before that lucky spurt and had lost nine of 11 prior as well. Reports are that Phil Housley is over his head. Furthermore, Buffalo will be back home, where there is more pressure than on the road on the West Coast, where nobody gives a shit what they do. The Sabres are a metrics mess and they’ll now play a team that they are vastly inferior to on their best day.

New Jersey has lost four in a row for the first time this year. They have scored three times over their past four games, which also looks ugly on paper and also influences the market. Pay no attention to results because they mean nothing. Fact is, the Devils are playing better now than they’ve been all season long without the results. Over their past 15 games, the Devils are a top-five possession team and a top-5 Corsi Against team during 5-on-5 play. Prior to the break, they dominated Boston while outshooting them 39-24 but lost 3-2. They did the same to the Stars as well. The Devils have been outshot once over their past 12 games and have several dominating performances over that time. The Devils have also thrived in 5v5 Score and Venus Adjusted Corsi for % by winning that battle in 10 of its last 13 games. The market trusts that the Devils are regressing but they’re not, as bad luck has hit them hard. They’ll now get Taylor Hall back and will very likely come out firing on all cylinders in an attempt to get back on track. The Devils are playing at an elite level and we see no reason not to back them here at this very short price. Incidentally, Keith Kinkaid is 2-0-0 with a 1.00 and a .964 save-percentage in his career against the Sabres.

Ottawa +171 over CAROLINA
7:05 PM EST. OT included. We are not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the Senators. They are clearly the second best team in this game and they will get outplayed for sure. What we know for sure is that Ottawa has caught fire many times over the past few years and probably have a hot streak in them this year. This is a team with too much star power to keep losing as many games as they are but this wager is not about backing the Sens. It’s about fading the Hurricanes at a massive price because Carolina is vulnerable to losing every single time it takes the ice.

The Hurricanes are a team we are very familiar with because we have bet them (and watched them) so often over the past few years and ripped up a lot of tickets. The media keeps insisting that something just isn't adding up with the Hurricanes. For the past four seasons, they have ranked in the top 11 in the NHL in Corsi For percentage and are #1 this season. Last season, they ranked sixth in Corsi For percentage, and were still outscored at 5-on-5 by 25 goals. This season, they added Justin Williams to a roster with young talent in Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen and Elias Lindholm, but still sit 17th in even-strength goals. Carolina is likely going to miss the playoffs again and it’s not rocket science as to why. The number one factor in determining the outcome of hockey games is goaltending and that’s the only reason why the Hurricanes lose so often. Put Andrei Vasilevskiy on the ‘Canes and Cam Ward and Scott Darling on the Bolts and we’d be discussing the Canes as the best team in the NHL and the Bolts would be right where the Canes are this year. It’s that simple. Cam Ward or Scott Darling (it does not matter) priced in this range is equivalent to a last place teams’ fifth starter in baseball being a 2-1 favorite. It cannot be. Darling is putrid and Ward isn’t much better, thus every time either one takes the ice, there is a distinct possibility that they’ll give up four, five or more goals and it’s for that reason that any team taking back this price against the Canes must be played

San Jose +152 over PITTSBURGH
7:05 PM EST. OT included. We like the Penguins very much and think they are even worth a bet to three-peat at 18-1 (at BET365) because they have just as good a shot of representing the Eastern Conference as anyone else. That the Capitals and Maple Leafs are priced lower than the Penguins and Columbus and Philly are priced in almost the same range is preposterous. You do not see us getting behind Pittsburgh very often because they are overpriced almost every game and while we’re not going to fade them every game because of it, this one is too good to ignore, especially after the break when we’re not sure which teams will be flat and which teams will not be. It’s also worth noting that the Penguins will start Matt Murray tonight, who has been off for three weeks and there could be some rust in his game. He’s also had an emotional three weeks after the unexpected passing of his father so he’s another wild card for this game. At the end of the day, the Sharks are too good to be offered prices like this.

Win or lose, this line is just plain stupid and it is mostly based on recency bias, as Pittsburgh whacked Minnesota 6-3 just before the break and have won seven of its past nine games while the Sharkies were losing at home to the Rangers, 6-5 just before the break. That was San Jose’s second straight loss, as they dropped a 5-4 OT game to Winnipeg prior to losing to New York. However, that’s not who the Sharks are. The Rangers scored six times on 29 shots and Winnipeg scored five times on 23 shots. This price is also a continuation of the overreaction to the Sharks losing Joe Thornton. While Thornton is an inspirational leader on and off the ice, the Sharks are as deep as any team in the league and scored five times in their first game without Thornton. The Sharks have seven different players on their roster with 10 or more goals scored this season and only one team has more. Since the calendar turned to 2018, the Sharks rank sixth in the NHL in points (15), first in goals scored (44), and first in even strength goals for. 20 of the 21 players that have suited up for San Jose in the month of January have recorded at least one point and 14 of those 21 players have scored at least one goal. The Sharks come to play every night and they’ve also had great success on these East Coast trips over the years. Definite overlay.

DALLAS -½ -108 over Los Angeles
8:35 PM EST. Regulation time only. Both Dallas and Los Angeles are very much in the picture for the playoffs but only one of these teams is legit and this is the time of year that the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. That narrative likely begins here. L.A. has somehow managed to score 18 more goals than they’ve allowed but most of that positive differential occurred in the first month of the season and most of it is luck-driven anyway. Special teams are all luck driven stats and in that regard. L.A. is soaring. The Kings lead the league in penalty kill percentage at 85.5% and in a sport in which one goal is so crucial, that luck driven % is why they’re still in the playoff picture. Should their penalty killing numbers return to league average, the Kings will be losing a lot of games. This is a weak and slow team that gets outplayed often and rarely wins the puck possession battle. We prefer recent metrics than overall ones because teams make adjustments and injuries play a factor too. In that regard, L.A. ranks 22nd in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % over the past 15 games. In Corsi Against/60, the Kings rank 23rd over that same span. The Kings are one of the NHL’s most beatable teams because they can’t play catchup, they have one good line and they’re always second to the loose pucks.

Dallas has recorded just three more points than L.A. with one more game played, which shows just how close they are in the standings but talent wise, there is nothing close about these two. Dallas is a true contender that has progressively improved all season long. When the Stars lose, it’s usually because of Ben Bishop and not because they were outplayed. Over their past 15 games, the Stars ranks 7th in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % and they also rank 7th in Corsi Against per 60. That puts Dallas in top seven in both Corsi For and Corsi Against, which in turn puts the Stars with elite company. It took Dallas a bit of time to adjust to Ken Hitchcock and a new regime but they’ve been thriving for weeks and are clearly the superior team here by a wide margin. Dallas will badly outplay the Kings here and if bad luck gets us, so be it.

GOOD LUCK!