PHILADELPHIA (48.0) @ NEW ENGLAND (-4 ½)
Before I get started, let’s review the 2017 – 2018 regular, and playoff season. Against The Spread in 2017, I won 65 % of the entire NFL schedule of games. In the playoffs I went 6-1-1 against the spread, and 7-1-0 straight up. As you know, if you follow my weekly football analysis, I do not feed from outside sources, to formulate my predictions. I attempt to investigate, and explore trends not mentioned by the Media. Last year, my analysis for the Super Bowl was right on. In 2018, I plan to do the same again this Super Bowl. So I suggest you closely follow what I am about to say, before you make any wagers.
During the regular season, teams go through their daily routines, habits, and comfort zones. However, comes Super Bowl, those creature of habit rituals, completely come to a halt. The Super Bowl, is a different animal. It’s a two week lay over, in a foreign city, bombarded with media, and distractions. This Worldwide attention, presents a problem with those players, or teams, in game in their game preparation. There are 26 New England Patriot players returning to the Super Bowl (with back to back appearances), and Philadelphia, only has six players returning. Tom Brady’s appearance alone, with eight Super Bowls, has that edge of experience on the road, and will be ready. Comparing Brady to his counterpart, Nick Foles, was quoted during the week, that he was “entering uncharted waters”. Meaning, with no experience in the biggest game of his life, and he lacks the confidence, to know what to expect. Now let’s go over some trends. New England is 15-0 versus a Super Bowl teams, that they never faced in the regular season. New England in its last 11 games played inside a dome. Is 11-0 (2012 to 2017). Brady is 13 -6 in domes, and the Patriots scored an average of 33 points during that stretch, and allowed on 20 points on defense. Philadelphia, in its last 15 games played in dome stadiums is 6 wins, and 9 losses. The Eagles averaged about 28 points per game on offense, and surrendered 27 points on defense. As for the keys of the game. Philadelphia, luckily caught a Minnesota Viking team, napping, and didn’t show up in the NFC Championship game. The Minnesota tenacious defense that we knew, came out flat, and unprepared. They missed key tackles. And their secondary blew many coverages. You better believe that Bill Belichick, will address his team about this, and will have his troops ready. Patriot experience, and preparation, are the keys to a Patriot victory. Like the saying goes, “been there, done that”. Offensively, Philadelphia has a solid offensive line, and the Pats have no pass rush. Didn’t we hear that all season? The Patriots have no pass rush, however, went 13-3, and are in the Super Bowl. Obviously, the brilliant Bill Belichick, will scheme up a game plan, to take their opponents best players. I expect that TE Ertz, will be a Patriot defensive priority. The other Philadelphia receivers, aren’t as talented as other receivers, which New England has already faced. If the Eagles plan to attack the Pats running the football, they will be met by Defensive lineman Alan Branch. Branch, hasn’t played in weeks, due to an injury. One would expect that he had plenty of time to heal, and will be activated to play. This is a key. Philadelphia has two solid running backs in Ajayi, and Blount. Branch in the lineup, allows the Pats to play the basic seven defenders on the line of scrimmage. However, without Branch, the Pats will be forced to play eight men in the box, to stop the run. Playing 8 men in the box, will only compromise, the New England secondary. If the Pats can make the Eagles, less effective running the football, this will place all the pressure on Nick Foles shoulders. Let me point out how important this is for a Patriot victory. I looked at the last two regular season games, and the playoff game against Atlanta. Foles struggled against Oakland, Dallas, and Atlanta. He had trouble reading defenses, and passing the football. The Minnesota game, was a gift. Minnesota’s huge upset over New Orleans, left them flat, and their entire defense letdown. Foles, and the Eagles may have put numbers in the Championship game, but the results are deceiving. As for the Patriot offense. New England has many gifted weapons, which are not one dimensional. Their receivers, running backs, and Tight Ends can catch, block, and run with the football. Philadelphia, has had trouble in the regular season, covering Tight Ends. Gronkowski should play after he is cleared from concussion protocol, and will present a problem for the Eagle defense. Philadelphia’s front four, are outstanding, and will try to rush Brady with only those four linemen. Brady, will counter with the typical Patriot offense in the first quarter. Brady, will throw shorts passes, and screens, and spread the ball all over the field, with a combination of runs. Belichick, will evaluate the Eagle defensive schemes, and attacks on Brady, and will come out with a game plan, after halftime. This point I am about to make, may appear funny to you. It’s called “intangibles”. For those inexperienced Eagle players that are attending their first Super Bowl, the nerves, and adrenaline are pumping. This will lead to their fatigue by the fourth quarter, and their energy will be spent. Like I mentioned, at least 26 Patriot players have their emotions in check, and know what to expect. On Thursday, the line was New England -4 ½ this is a tough number to call, and I think Vegas called the spread right. The earliest line set in this game was over two weeks ago, indicating that the Patriots should be favorite by -6 points. Of course the betting trend, pounced on that line and played the dog, and brought the number down to 4 ½ . The line at 4 ½ is on the fence, however, like the saying goes…”You have to dance, with the one that brought you “. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW ENGLAND 30 PHILADELPHIA 24. Take New England -4 ½, and play the over the total, 48.0.
Before I get started, let’s review the 2017 – 2018 regular, and playoff season. Against The Spread in 2017, I won 65 % of the entire NFL schedule of games. In the playoffs I went 6-1-1 against the spread, and 7-1-0 straight up. As you know, if you follow my weekly football analysis, I do not feed from outside sources, to formulate my predictions. I attempt to investigate, and explore trends not mentioned by the Media. Last year, my analysis for the Super Bowl was right on. In 2018, I plan to do the same again this Super Bowl. So I suggest you closely follow what I am about to say, before you make any wagers.
During the regular season, teams go through their daily routines, habits, and comfort zones. However, comes Super Bowl, those creature of habit rituals, completely come to a halt. The Super Bowl, is a different animal. It’s a two week lay over, in a foreign city, bombarded with media, and distractions. This Worldwide attention, presents a problem with those players, or teams, in game in their game preparation. There are 26 New England Patriot players returning to the Super Bowl (with back to back appearances), and Philadelphia, only has six players returning. Tom Brady’s appearance alone, with eight Super Bowls, has that edge of experience on the road, and will be ready. Comparing Brady to his counterpart, Nick Foles, was quoted during the week, that he was “entering uncharted waters”. Meaning, with no experience in the biggest game of his life, and he lacks the confidence, to know what to expect. Now let’s go over some trends. New England is 15-0 versus a Super Bowl teams, that they never faced in the regular season. New England in its last 11 games played inside a dome. Is 11-0 (2012 to 2017). Brady is 13 -6 in domes, and the Patriots scored an average of 33 points during that stretch, and allowed on 20 points on defense. Philadelphia, in its last 15 games played in dome stadiums is 6 wins, and 9 losses. The Eagles averaged about 28 points per game on offense, and surrendered 27 points on defense. As for the keys of the game. Philadelphia, luckily caught a Minnesota Viking team, napping, and didn’t show up in the NFC Championship game. The Minnesota tenacious defense that we knew, came out flat, and unprepared. They missed key tackles. And their secondary blew many coverages. You better believe that Bill Belichick, will address his team about this, and will have his troops ready. Patriot experience, and preparation, are the keys to a Patriot victory. Like the saying goes, “been there, done that”. Offensively, Philadelphia has a solid offensive line, and the Pats have no pass rush. Didn’t we hear that all season? The Patriots have no pass rush, however, went 13-3, and are in the Super Bowl. Obviously, the brilliant Bill Belichick, will scheme up a game plan, to take their opponents best players. I expect that TE Ertz, will be a Patriot defensive priority. The other Philadelphia receivers, aren’t as talented as other receivers, which New England has already faced. If the Eagles plan to attack the Pats running the football, they will be met by Defensive lineman Alan Branch. Branch, hasn’t played in weeks, due to an injury. One would expect that he had plenty of time to heal, and will be activated to play. This is a key. Philadelphia has two solid running backs in Ajayi, and Blount. Branch in the lineup, allows the Pats to play the basic seven defenders on the line of scrimmage. However, without Branch, the Pats will be forced to play eight men in the box, to stop the run. Playing 8 men in the box, will only compromise, the New England secondary. If the Pats can make the Eagles, less effective running the football, this will place all the pressure on Nick Foles shoulders. Let me point out how important this is for a Patriot victory. I looked at the last two regular season games, and the playoff game against Atlanta. Foles struggled against Oakland, Dallas, and Atlanta. He had trouble reading defenses, and passing the football. The Minnesota game, was a gift. Minnesota’s huge upset over New Orleans, left them flat, and their entire defense letdown. Foles, and the Eagles may have put numbers in the Championship game, but the results are deceiving. As for the Patriot offense. New England has many gifted weapons, which are not one dimensional. Their receivers, running backs, and Tight Ends can catch, block, and run with the football. Philadelphia, has had trouble in the regular season, covering Tight Ends. Gronkowski should play after he is cleared from concussion protocol, and will present a problem for the Eagle defense. Philadelphia’s front four, are outstanding, and will try to rush Brady with only those four linemen. Brady, will counter with the typical Patriot offense in the first quarter. Brady, will throw shorts passes, and screens, and spread the ball all over the field, with a combination of runs. Belichick, will evaluate the Eagle defensive schemes, and attacks on Brady, and will come out with a game plan, after halftime. This point I am about to make, may appear funny to you. It’s called “intangibles”. For those inexperienced Eagle players that are attending their first Super Bowl, the nerves, and adrenaline are pumping. This will lead to their fatigue by the fourth quarter, and their energy will be spent. Like I mentioned, at least 26 Patriot players have their emotions in check, and know what to expect. On Thursday, the line was New England -4 ½ this is a tough number to call, and I think Vegas called the spread right. The earliest line set in this game was over two weeks ago, indicating that the Patriots should be favorite by -6 points. Of course the betting trend, pounced on that line and played the dog, and brought the number down to 4 ½ . The line at 4 ½ is on the fence, however, like the saying goes…”You have to dance, with the one that brought you “. PREDICTED SCORE: NEW ENGLAND 30 PHILADELPHIA 24. Take New England -4 ½, and play the over the total, 48.0.
