Ultimate Super Bowl LII betting guide
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
Sunday's Super Bowl will feature the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles in Minnesota. ESPN Chalk's Super Bowl Betting Guide is here to help with all your betting needs, bringing you a comprehensive look at Super Bowl LII.
Our NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Warren Sharp) provide their analysis on picking the game against the spread, the over/under and various prop bets that they like. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information will also give his thoughts on a bunch of props. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has more than 400 prop bets available.
PDF of Westgate's full prop list
All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.
New England Patriots (-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 48 (opened at 47.5)
PickCenter: 56 percent pick Philadelphia
Steele: The line opened at New England -5.5, but is now down to the Patriots being just a 4- or 4.5-point favorite. Philadelphia has never won a Super Bowl and has just six players with Super Bowl experience, while the Patriots are in their eighth Super Bowl since 2001 with 33 players who have played in the "Big Game." New England is 5-2 in Super Bowls featuring the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady combination, but the Patriots have won only one of those games by more than four points -- and that was last year in overtime. In this season's playoffs the underdog has barked loudly, going 8-2 ATS.
In the past 36 conference title games, only eight times has one of the Super Bowl contestants lost ATS in that round. I would think the value would be on that team, but a further examination shows that the team that lost ATS in its conference title game is just 2-6 straight up and 2-5-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. New England did not cover versus Jacksonville. Philadelphia has the No. 6 offense and No. 4 defense in the NFL and is one of just four teams that ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense. New England has the No. 1 offense and No. 28 defense, but that latter number is misleading. The Patriots allowed 441 yards per game in their first six games, but have allowed just 310 yards per game in their past eight, which would have ranked sixth in the NFL in that span.
The Eagles have the more complete team and have outgained their foes by 62 yards per game, with New England at just plus-33 yards per game. The Patriots have the edge in experience, quarterback and head coach; they also boast my No. 2-rated special teams versus the Eagles' No. 11-ranked unit. There is not a lot of value and I am going to go against the grain. The straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS, but I will call for New England to win by a field goal and give a lean to the Eagles plus the points.
I feel the best play in the Super Bowl is the total and I like the 'Over.' I mentioned earlier that the Patriots' defense has vastly improved over the past eight games, but in that stretch New England faced Buffalo twice, Miami twice, the Jets and Tennessee; those offenses have an average rank of No. 26. Philadelphia's offense has gotten stronger by the week as Nick Foles has taken control; the Eagles' backup quarterback has completed 75 percent of his passes in back-to-back games, with Joe Montana being the only other quarterback in NFL history to accomplish that feat in the playoffs. Philadelphia just took on the NFL's No. 1 defense and shredded the Vikings for 456 yards and 27 first downs. The Eagles had 38 points early in the fourth quarter before going conservative with 10 runs on their last 12 offensive plays.
New England just faced the No. 3 defense in the NFL with Brady playing with stitches and tight end Rob Gronkowski missing the entire second half. Brady's hand will be much closer to 100 percent and Gronkowski will likely be back to boost what is the best offense in the league. The Eagles' defense plays great at home, allowing just 12 points per game, but away from home they are allowing double that at 24 points per game (Philadelphia took on an offense ranked better than No. 14 in only three of its eight road games). The Eagles' weakness on defense is versus the pass and that plays right into the hands of Brady. Seven of the last nine Super Bowls have hit 48 or more points, so the number is very reasonable.
ATS pick: Lean Philadelphia +4
Total: Over 48 total points
Rynning: It's difficult to discount the edge Belichick and Brady bring to this contest. Of course, it's well-known how many times they've reached the NFL's pinnacle game, winning five times. To strengthen their edge, the competition will be highly questionable under the strenuous circumstances. Brady owns a massive edge over Eagles backup Foles. The Eagles were written off to close the regular season with Foles underwhelming before his breakout in the NFC Championship Game, a performance that'll prove difficult to duplicate.
Meanwhile, Eagles coach Doug Pederson is a solid X's and O's guy, but his game management leaves much to be desired. New England's coaching staff should once again wear down the opposition in the adjustment phase, while the Patriots pounce upon a Pederson error. As I've noted, the Eagles are a well-rounded team and they actually own the right profile to cause issues for the Patriots with their running game and defensive front. However, the time to play the Eagles was when they were a home 'dog catching precious points. Now against a better team and on neutral turf, the value jumps to the Patriots.
ATS pick: New England -4
Total: Under 48 total points
Sharp: This game is the ultimate chess match, and I'm excited to see it play out. The keyword is "adaptation," and the winner will be the team that adapts best to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing defense. The Eagles need to run more from "11" personnel, as the Patriots allow a 60 percent success rate and 6.6 yards per carry to offenses in 11, but a 36 percent success rate and 3.3 yards per carry in all other personnel groupings. The Eagles also need to exploit their edge in running back passes, as well as adapt and pass far less to the perimeter; instead, they should focus more targets over the middle against a Patriots defense that ranks 31st in defending that part of the field.
The Patriots need to slow the Eagles' pass rush by passing to running backs on first down, where Philadelphia ranks 29th in defending first-down RB passes. New England also must use 21 personnel often (which the Eagles rarely faced this season), attack the Philadelphia defense in the middle on passes, and look to exploit Gronkowski on deep passes, another Eagles weakness. All things considered, I think the Eagles can keep it close -- but it will be up to them to adapt their offense more to expose the weaknesses of the Patriots' defense. It would not shock me at all to see the Eagles cover the number in the first half. However, with a halftime adjustment I believe the Patriots will adapt best and expose the Eagles in the second half. I see New England winning the Super Bowl, but this easily could be a one-score game late.
Pick: New England (money line -185)
Prop bets
General
PHILADELPHIA is the first team to score
Parolin: No team has a better first-quarter scoring margin than the Eagles (plus-58 this season), almost double that of the Patriots (plus-30). In an odd statistical quirk, the Patriots haven't scored a first-quarter point in any of their seven Super Bowl appearances under Belichick. New England trailed after one quarter in three Super Bowls, and was the second team to score in five of its seven Super Bowls appearances. For a team that thrives on adjustments, neither the slow start nor the subsequent plus-27 advantage in quarters 2 through overtime is all that surprising. But the Patriots are still favored on the board here -- "Foles vs. Brady" likely tells you all you need to know about why -- though the Eagles taking an early lead would hardly be a shock.
Patriots-related props
More gross passing yards in SECOND HALF for Tom Brady
Steele: We all know the Patriots start out slow in Super Bowls, as they have failed to score a single point in the first quarter of any of their seven Super Bowl appearances. Last year, New England had just 210 yards at the half but finished with 546. I am expecting this to be a close game, so Brady will have to be throwing in the fourth quarter. Only once in their past seven games have the Patriots had more yards in the first half than they did in the second half.
YES, Tom Brady throws a touchdown pass in the second quarter
Steele: As mentioned above, the Patriots have not scored a point in the first quarter in their past seven Super Bowl appearances, but Brady really gets going in the second quarter, especially in the final two minutes of the half after seeing what the defense is scheming against him. He has five touchdown passes in the second quarter in the Patriots' past four games and gets another one or two here.
Rob Gronkowski total receiving yards OVER 73.5 yards
Steele: Philadelphia's defense has had a weakness against opposing tight ends all season. Gronkowski has topped this total in nine of the 15 games in which he caught a pass this season; he had a reception in the AFC Championship Game but finished with only 21 yards after leaving with a concussion that forced him to miss the entire second half.
Rob Gronkowski OVER five receptions
Parolin: There's a slightly concerning hole for the Eagles' defense entering Super Bowl LII. Philadelphia ranks in the top three in Total QBR allowed to both running backs and wide receivers this season, but tight ends have given the Eagles some problems -- they rank 28th in Total QBR allowed to tight ends. The Eagles are one of three defenses that didn't pick off a single pass intended for tight ends this season (Bears and Browns being the others). Philadelphia has especially struggled defending tight ends inside the numbers (including the seams), with 53 completions (30th) and a 76 percent completion percentage (28th). Why is this a problem? Gronkowski ranks in the top five in targets, catches and yards inside the numbers among tight ends. Only the Chiefs' Travis Kelce has more yards (778) and first downs (43) on those throws than Gronk (721 receiving yards, 40 first downs) among tight ends. Philadelphia's plan for dealing with Gronkowski will be critical, as the Eagles haven't had any sort of established success against tight ends. Seven different Eagles players had between five and nine tackles this season on tight end receptions; even if they vary looks, six catches for a player of Gronkowski's ability is very much in play.
Eagles-related props
Nick Foles total rushing yards OVER 1.5 yards
Parolin: Foles has one single rush yard this season, not a ringing endorsement for the over. But as a slight value play, the over has some schematic value due to the Patriots' pass rush. The New England players with the most pass-rushing snaps in the playoffs this season include two fourth-round picks, two undrafted free-agent rookies, former Ravens defensive end Lawrence Guy and defensive tackle Malcom Brown. This is a Patriots defense that allowed more seconds before pass per play and a longer average time in pocket per play than any other in the league this season. With a defensive strategy that prioritizes good coverage over a high-octane pass rush, it's not unreasonable to think Foles could see opportunities for a 2-yard scramble. This is especially true when looking at how often Foles has been used outside the pocket. Foles has had 22 plays outside the pocket over his past five games (including playoffs). Should the coverage hold while the pass rush is contained (which will absolutely happen at points on Sunday), Foles needs one 2-yard scramble to hit the over.
Steele: Foles had a 9-yard run against the Rams, but in the past five games he has just eight carries for minus-2 yards and did not finish above zero yards rushing in any of those five games. The Eagles have been using the "Run Pass Option" offense more in recent games, and to have an effective RPO the quarterback should have one or two positive runs. Stopping Foles from running will not be a Patriot priority, and I will call for him to get a solid run or two and easily top 1.5 yards. No need to play it safe with your quarterback in the second half, it is the final game of the season.
Nick Foles longest completion OVER 37.5 yards
Steele: The Patriots will be geared toward stopping the "Run Pass Option" and short pass attack of the Eagles. They will play their corners tight. Foles will not be allowed to hit 75 percent of his passes like he did in the first two playoff games. That type of coverage will usually yield at least one big play. In the NFC Championship Game, Foles had completions of 53, 42, 41 and 36 yards versus the Vikings' excellent defense outdoors. This game is in a controlled environment. In the past six games, the Patriots have yielded seven passes of 36 yards or more.
Jay Ajayi total rushing yards UNDER 59.5 yards
Steele: Belichick will usually devise a game plan to neutralize top weapons. Ajayi has led the Eagles in rushing in eight of the nine games in which he was given a carry. Ajayi topped 60 yards in just four of those nine games. Ajayi faced the Patriots three times when he was in Miami. In those games, he had just 14, 59 and 2 yards rushing.
Jay Ajayi total receiving yards OVER 22.5 yards
Jay Ajayi longest reception OVER 10.5 yards
Sharp: On targets to Ajayi since Week 15, Foles has a 50 percent success rate, 9.1 yards per attempt and a 137.9 rating. It's the best on the team. The next best passer rating is 105.7, to receiver Torrey Smith. On early downs this season, the Patriots allow a 60 percent success rate to running back targets, which ranks 31st, and 7.5 yards per attempt, also 31st in the league. Compounding problems for the Patriots is that they have played the fifth-easiest schedule of RB-pass offenses in the league, while the Eagles' offense has played the fifth-most difficult schedule of RB-pass defenses. Having just faced RB-pass defenses ranked No. 1 (Vikings) and No. 7 (Falcons), with three catches in both games for well over 17.5 yards, I expect Ajayi to clear those numbers against the No. 31 Patriots RB-pass defense.
Corey Clement total receiving yards OVER 14.5 yards
Parolin: There wasn't much of a need for a passing-down back in the NFC Championship Game (considering the sizable advantage Philadelphia held for most of the game), but Clement still saw eight of those opportunities. In fact, Clement has had at least eight third-down snaps in four of his past seven games, including playoffs, after not reaching that number in any of Philadelphia's first 11 games. Clement proved he was a valuable weapon with five catches for 31 yards against the Falcons in the divisional round. New England is similarly susceptible against running backs in the passing game. The Patriots' defense allowed 844 pass yards to running backs this season, second most of any defense in the league behind the Titans. It stands to reason New England would focus on Eagles tight end Zach Ertz in the passing game, given his sizable target share with Foles under center, so he would need a new checkdown outlet. Clement is the most explosive pass-catching back the Eagles have.
Nelson Agholor longest catch OVER 16.5 yards
Rynning: No question Pederson will go back to the Chiefs' early victory over the Patriots, in which Kansas City used its speed for big plays. In fact, down the stretch, the Eagles have also looked to get their fastest player more opportunities.
Cross-sport props
LeBron James vs. Houston Rockets (Saturday, Feb. 3) TOTAL SCORING +6.5 POINTS against Nick Foles pass attempts
Rynning: I'm expecting a more conservative approach from the Eagles' offense relying on their ground game. Look for an MVP-type performance from James up against James Harden, while the loss of Kevin Love boosts his scoring.
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
Sunday's Super Bowl will feature the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles in Minnesota. ESPN Chalk's Super Bowl Betting Guide is here to help with all your betting needs, bringing you a comprehensive look at Super Bowl LII.
Our NFL Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Erin Rynning and Warren Sharp) provide their analysis on picking the game against the spread, the over/under and various prop bets that they like. John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information will also give his thoughts on a bunch of props. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has more than 400 prop bets available.
PDF of Westgate's full prop list
All lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unless otherwise noted.
New England Patriots (-4) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 48 (opened at 47.5)
PickCenter: 56 percent pick Philadelphia
Steele: The line opened at New England -5.5, but is now down to the Patriots being just a 4- or 4.5-point favorite. Philadelphia has never won a Super Bowl and has just six players with Super Bowl experience, while the Patriots are in their eighth Super Bowl since 2001 with 33 players who have played in the "Big Game." New England is 5-2 in Super Bowls featuring the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady combination, but the Patriots have won only one of those games by more than four points -- and that was last year in overtime. In this season's playoffs the underdog has barked loudly, going 8-2 ATS.
In the past 36 conference title games, only eight times has one of the Super Bowl contestants lost ATS in that round. I would think the value would be on that team, but a further examination shows that the team that lost ATS in its conference title game is just 2-6 straight up and 2-5-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. New England did not cover versus Jacksonville. Philadelphia has the No. 6 offense and No. 4 defense in the NFL and is one of just four teams that ranked in the top 10 in both offense and defense. New England has the No. 1 offense and No. 28 defense, but that latter number is misleading. The Patriots allowed 441 yards per game in their first six games, but have allowed just 310 yards per game in their past eight, which would have ranked sixth in the NFL in that span.
The Eagles have the more complete team and have outgained their foes by 62 yards per game, with New England at just plus-33 yards per game. The Patriots have the edge in experience, quarterback and head coach; they also boast my No. 2-rated special teams versus the Eagles' No. 11-ranked unit. There is not a lot of value and I am going to go against the grain. The straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS, but I will call for New England to win by a field goal and give a lean to the Eagles plus the points.
I feel the best play in the Super Bowl is the total and I like the 'Over.' I mentioned earlier that the Patriots' defense has vastly improved over the past eight games, but in that stretch New England faced Buffalo twice, Miami twice, the Jets and Tennessee; those offenses have an average rank of No. 26. Philadelphia's offense has gotten stronger by the week as Nick Foles has taken control; the Eagles' backup quarterback has completed 75 percent of his passes in back-to-back games, with Joe Montana being the only other quarterback in NFL history to accomplish that feat in the playoffs. Philadelphia just took on the NFL's No. 1 defense and shredded the Vikings for 456 yards and 27 first downs. The Eagles had 38 points early in the fourth quarter before going conservative with 10 runs on their last 12 offensive plays.
New England just faced the No. 3 defense in the NFL with Brady playing with stitches and tight end Rob Gronkowski missing the entire second half. Brady's hand will be much closer to 100 percent and Gronkowski will likely be back to boost what is the best offense in the league. The Eagles' defense plays great at home, allowing just 12 points per game, but away from home they are allowing double that at 24 points per game (Philadelphia took on an offense ranked better than No. 14 in only three of its eight road games). The Eagles' weakness on defense is versus the pass and that plays right into the hands of Brady. Seven of the last nine Super Bowls have hit 48 or more points, so the number is very reasonable.
ATS pick: Lean Philadelphia +4
Total: Over 48 total points
Rynning: It's difficult to discount the edge Belichick and Brady bring to this contest. Of course, it's well-known how many times they've reached the NFL's pinnacle game, winning five times. To strengthen their edge, the competition will be highly questionable under the strenuous circumstances. Brady owns a massive edge over Eagles backup Foles. The Eagles were written off to close the regular season with Foles underwhelming before his breakout in the NFC Championship Game, a performance that'll prove difficult to duplicate.
Meanwhile, Eagles coach Doug Pederson is a solid X's and O's guy, but his game management leaves much to be desired. New England's coaching staff should once again wear down the opposition in the adjustment phase, while the Patriots pounce upon a Pederson error. As I've noted, the Eagles are a well-rounded team and they actually own the right profile to cause issues for the Patriots with their running game and defensive front. However, the time to play the Eagles was when they were a home 'dog catching precious points. Now against a better team and on neutral turf, the value jumps to the Patriots.
ATS pick: New England -4
Total: Under 48 total points
Sharp: This game is the ultimate chess match, and I'm excited to see it play out. The keyword is "adaptation," and the winner will be the team that adapts best to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing defense. The Eagles need to run more from "11" personnel, as the Patriots allow a 60 percent success rate and 6.6 yards per carry to offenses in 11, but a 36 percent success rate and 3.3 yards per carry in all other personnel groupings. The Eagles also need to exploit their edge in running back passes, as well as adapt and pass far less to the perimeter; instead, they should focus more targets over the middle against a Patriots defense that ranks 31st in defending that part of the field.
The Patriots need to slow the Eagles' pass rush by passing to running backs on first down, where Philadelphia ranks 29th in defending first-down RB passes. New England also must use 21 personnel often (which the Eagles rarely faced this season), attack the Philadelphia defense in the middle on passes, and look to exploit Gronkowski on deep passes, another Eagles weakness. All things considered, I think the Eagles can keep it close -- but it will be up to them to adapt their offense more to expose the weaknesses of the Patriots' defense. It would not shock me at all to see the Eagles cover the number in the first half. However, with a halftime adjustment I believe the Patriots will adapt best and expose the Eagles in the second half. I see New England winning the Super Bowl, but this easily could be a one-score game late.
Pick: New England (money line -185)
Prop bets
General
PHILADELPHIA is the first team to score
Parolin: No team has a better first-quarter scoring margin than the Eagles (plus-58 this season), almost double that of the Patriots (plus-30). In an odd statistical quirk, the Patriots haven't scored a first-quarter point in any of their seven Super Bowl appearances under Belichick. New England trailed after one quarter in three Super Bowls, and was the second team to score in five of its seven Super Bowls appearances. For a team that thrives on adjustments, neither the slow start nor the subsequent plus-27 advantage in quarters 2 through overtime is all that surprising. But the Patriots are still favored on the board here -- "Foles vs. Brady" likely tells you all you need to know about why -- though the Eagles taking an early lead would hardly be a shock.
Patriots-related props
More gross passing yards in SECOND HALF for Tom Brady
Steele: We all know the Patriots start out slow in Super Bowls, as they have failed to score a single point in the first quarter of any of their seven Super Bowl appearances. Last year, New England had just 210 yards at the half but finished with 546. I am expecting this to be a close game, so Brady will have to be throwing in the fourth quarter. Only once in their past seven games have the Patriots had more yards in the first half than they did in the second half.
YES, Tom Brady throws a touchdown pass in the second quarter
Steele: As mentioned above, the Patriots have not scored a point in the first quarter in their past seven Super Bowl appearances, but Brady really gets going in the second quarter, especially in the final two minutes of the half after seeing what the defense is scheming against him. He has five touchdown passes in the second quarter in the Patriots' past four games and gets another one or two here.
Rob Gronkowski total receiving yards OVER 73.5 yards
Steele: Philadelphia's defense has had a weakness against opposing tight ends all season. Gronkowski has topped this total in nine of the 15 games in which he caught a pass this season; he had a reception in the AFC Championship Game but finished with only 21 yards after leaving with a concussion that forced him to miss the entire second half.
Rob Gronkowski OVER five receptions
Parolin: There's a slightly concerning hole for the Eagles' defense entering Super Bowl LII. Philadelphia ranks in the top three in Total QBR allowed to both running backs and wide receivers this season, but tight ends have given the Eagles some problems -- they rank 28th in Total QBR allowed to tight ends. The Eagles are one of three defenses that didn't pick off a single pass intended for tight ends this season (Bears and Browns being the others). Philadelphia has especially struggled defending tight ends inside the numbers (including the seams), with 53 completions (30th) and a 76 percent completion percentage (28th). Why is this a problem? Gronkowski ranks in the top five in targets, catches and yards inside the numbers among tight ends. Only the Chiefs' Travis Kelce has more yards (778) and first downs (43) on those throws than Gronk (721 receiving yards, 40 first downs) among tight ends. Philadelphia's plan for dealing with Gronkowski will be critical, as the Eagles haven't had any sort of established success against tight ends. Seven different Eagles players had between five and nine tackles this season on tight end receptions; even if they vary looks, six catches for a player of Gronkowski's ability is very much in play.
Eagles-related props
Nick Foles total rushing yards OVER 1.5 yards
Parolin: Foles has one single rush yard this season, not a ringing endorsement for the over. But as a slight value play, the over has some schematic value due to the Patriots' pass rush. The New England players with the most pass-rushing snaps in the playoffs this season include two fourth-round picks, two undrafted free-agent rookies, former Ravens defensive end Lawrence Guy and defensive tackle Malcom Brown. This is a Patriots defense that allowed more seconds before pass per play and a longer average time in pocket per play than any other in the league this season. With a defensive strategy that prioritizes good coverage over a high-octane pass rush, it's not unreasonable to think Foles could see opportunities for a 2-yard scramble. This is especially true when looking at how often Foles has been used outside the pocket. Foles has had 22 plays outside the pocket over his past five games (including playoffs). Should the coverage hold while the pass rush is contained (which will absolutely happen at points on Sunday), Foles needs one 2-yard scramble to hit the over.
Steele: Foles had a 9-yard run against the Rams, but in the past five games he has just eight carries for minus-2 yards and did not finish above zero yards rushing in any of those five games. The Eagles have been using the "Run Pass Option" offense more in recent games, and to have an effective RPO the quarterback should have one or two positive runs. Stopping Foles from running will not be a Patriot priority, and I will call for him to get a solid run or two and easily top 1.5 yards. No need to play it safe with your quarterback in the second half, it is the final game of the season.
Nick Foles longest completion OVER 37.5 yards
Steele: The Patriots will be geared toward stopping the "Run Pass Option" and short pass attack of the Eagles. They will play their corners tight. Foles will not be allowed to hit 75 percent of his passes like he did in the first two playoff games. That type of coverage will usually yield at least one big play. In the NFC Championship Game, Foles had completions of 53, 42, 41 and 36 yards versus the Vikings' excellent defense outdoors. This game is in a controlled environment. In the past six games, the Patriots have yielded seven passes of 36 yards or more.
Jay Ajayi total rushing yards UNDER 59.5 yards
Steele: Belichick will usually devise a game plan to neutralize top weapons. Ajayi has led the Eagles in rushing in eight of the nine games in which he was given a carry. Ajayi topped 60 yards in just four of those nine games. Ajayi faced the Patriots three times when he was in Miami. In those games, he had just 14, 59 and 2 yards rushing.
Jay Ajayi total receiving yards OVER 22.5 yards
Jay Ajayi longest reception OVER 10.5 yards
Sharp: On targets to Ajayi since Week 15, Foles has a 50 percent success rate, 9.1 yards per attempt and a 137.9 rating. It's the best on the team. The next best passer rating is 105.7, to receiver Torrey Smith. On early downs this season, the Patriots allow a 60 percent success rate to running back targets, which ranks 31st, and 7.5 yards per attempt, also 31st in the league. Compounding problems for the Patriots is that they have played the fifth-easiest schedule of RB-pass offenses in the league, while the Eagles' offense has played the fifth-most difficult schedule of RB-pass defenses. Having just faced RB-pass defenses ranked No. 1 (Vikings) and No. 7 (Falcons), with three catches in both games for well over 17.5 yards, I expect Ajayi to clear those numbers against the No. 31 Patriots RB-pass defense.
Corey Clement total receiving yards OVER 14.5 yards
Parolin: There wasn't much of a need for a passing-down back in the NFC Championship Game (considering the sizable advantage Philadelphia held for most of the game), but Clement still saw eight of those opportunities. In fact, Clement has had at least eight third-down snaps in four of his past seven games, including playoffs, after not reaching that number in any of Philadelphia's first 11 games. Clement proved he was a valuable weapon with five catches for 31 yards against the Falcons in the divisional round. New England is similarly susceptible against running backs in the passing game. The Patriots' defense allowed 844 pass yards to running backs this season, second most of any defense in the league behind the Titans. It stands to reason New England would focus on Eagles tight end Zach Ertz in the passing game, given his sizable target share with Foles under center, so he would need a new checkdown outlet. Clement is the most explosive pass-catching back the Eagles have.
Nelson Agholor longest catch OVER 16.5 yards
Rynning: No question Pederson will go back to the Chiefs' early victory over the Patriots, in which Kansas City used its speed for big plays. In fact, down the stretch, the Eagles have also looked to get their fastest player more opportunities.
Cross-sport props
LeBron James vs. Houston Rockets (Saturday, Feb. 3) TOTAL SCORING +6.5 POINTS against Nick Foles pass attempts
Rynning: I'm expecting a more conservative approach from the Eagles' offense relying on their ground game. Look for an MVP-type performance from James up against James Harden, while the loss of Kevin Love boosts his scoring.
