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Thread: **** Wishfull Thinking... A Guaranteed Win On the Superbowl ? !!! ****

  1. #1 **** Wishfull Thinking... A Guaranteed Win On the Superbowl ? !!! **** 
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    Two weeks back I had both ATS winning sides with Jags and Eagles.

    Whats with my thread title? Nothing - except that we all could wish for a guaranteed win if we could get it.

    On the comical side, I always asked people if you could have one wish, what would it be?

    Hundreds of different responses ranged from,

    To Wish
    Heaven could be proven true and witnessed by the whole world at once

    To win the lottery.

    To live forever

    Heal the sick all at once

    Hit a ten horse trifecta.

    Find a real Sports Almanac, like in the movie "Back to the Future"

    And hundreds more.

    When I was asked back - what would my wish be, I simply said: "I wish for all the wishes in the world". LOL!


    So today Im wishing for another win on the super bowl.

    Here is my take on this big game.
    NE
    There are a few factors that make sense to me.
    Pats are logically favored because they win the money ATS at a good rate.
    Brady is arguably the best QB in the game for the last several years.
    Belichick is the most successful coach the last 15 years.
    Pats have come back from huge deficits to win SU.
    Pats RARELY beat them selves.

    Here is the Philly list.
    Eagles have the best defense of the 2 teams
    Eagles have held the last four opponents to 10 points or less. None of those opponents were playing backups.
    Foles was reborn. Given a wish come true opportunity, he has the best QB rating ever in the last few games!
    Capping this game is impossible unless you ask yourself, What would Wentz have done if he started? You have to think it would be hard for him, (with little experience) to play at the level that Foles played at.
    I also think that if both QB's went down in this game, the Eagles would win because of their defense.
    Foles has played as well as Brady during the playoffs. Especially against Atlanta and Minnesota.

    There is much more to say but Im condensing it down to a few things.

    One game that stands out to me is the Pats vs Tampa game. Tampa has a very underrated defense. They kept NE out of the end zone in 4 of 5 drives which NE won 19-14. Philly is better than Tampa defensively.

    More importantly, is the fact that Vegas made NE only a 3.5 point favorite? They expected the Buc's defense to cover that game.
    That leads me to this line on Sunday. The 4.5 or 5.5 line is over priced! Do you think that if Philly was playing in Tampa the way the Eagles are playing now, they would only be a 3.5 point favorite? Of corse not!
    They were dogs in both games with ATL and Minn. Public opinion caused that.

    Eagles pass rush is simply to good to have Brady relax. They have better defensive speed as proven against Minny and ATL.

    On the Pats defense, no one stands out to me, so stopping Foles is going to be tough.

    I also think Foles is better right now than both QB's are on Tennsee and J'Ville.

    I also think that NE will never score more than what they did against the Jags, who had them beat until, the end in NEW ENGLAND !.

    Neutral site games in the Super Bowl isn't a factor, IMO.

    Play.
    Philly. Take the points
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  2. #2  
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    Not sure why you are even bringing up the Tampa bay game?

    patriots played a close game against Texans, then a loss by 3 at home to Carolina and then a Thursday game AT TB. That’s the reason for the line that was given. Philly did not even play TB and you are predicting a line???

    Philly was a home dog in the two playoff games as it was Foles, pretty sure if Wentz was playing Philly would have been favs

    agree in the defense and Foles has been in the league long enough

    if Philly can get to Brady, like the Giants did in the two Super Bowl losses, philly should be champs

    GL with the play
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  3. #3  
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    Good write up. Well done. I like it when someone assesses the game rather than just lob out a pick!
    GL!
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  4. #4  
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    Quote Originally Posted by wizardofodd View Post
    Not sure why you are even bringing up the Tampa bay game?

    patriots played a close game against Texans, then a loss by 3 at home to Carolina and then a Thursday game AT TB. Thatís the reason for the line that was given. Philly did not even play TB and you are predicting a line???

    Philly was a home dog in the two playoff games as it was Foles, pretty sure if Wentz was playing Philly would have been favs

    agree in the defense and Foles has been in the league long enough

    if Philly can get to Brady, like the Giants did in the two Super Bowl losses, philly should be champs

    GL with the play
    Hey Wiz thanks for stopping by.

    In regards to NE playing Tampa its fair to say that they (Eagles) have the similar defense and I was showing that the 3.5 point spread in that game was low.

    Since you brought up Carolina that brings me to other deep factor that I have for this game tomorrow. I want to offer some insight that I use when capping. I was sure the Steelers would lose their playoff game and they did. But there is a reason. Its because they are one of the teams that are composed of the worst division in the AFC. All four teams (Cle,Cin.Balt and Pitt) lost to the Bears with a rookie starter in 3 of them.

    In regards to Carolina they swept the AFC East. That division is the second worst. They beat Buff, Miami, Jets and Pats. Carolina isn't a bad team because they beat ATL and Minn. But so did Philly - with a backup QB.

    Whats is more important to those who like NE, is that Carolina (C. Newton) completed 75% of the passes in New England! Newton has a lot of inconsistency in the passing percentage. So to do that in NE is a glaring example of what to expect from Foles who is on fire!

    I do agree that Wentz would have been favored in both playoff games in Philly if he played. But I think Philly loses one of them and never gets here for the SB with Wentz, because he was lacking experience.
    Foles is the better QB IMO, in the playoffs - because he had no pressure and years of experience with an improved team. He was also never marked and a QB who choked in his career. He is playing up to his potential because the team is better than when he was the starter and the defense is superb now. (Would like to see him go to Cleveland, where he could help)

    Lastly, in my opinion, NE traveling to Tampa on a short week wasn't a factor in the point spread. That line should have been 7 plus. Pats weren't traveling in back-to-back games for that one. If you look closely, they did struggle with B2B games on the road this season where they lost SU or won by small margins.

    Thanks for the feedback. GL tomorrow.
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  5. #5  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serbone View Post
    Good write up. Well done. I like it when someone assesses the game rather than just lob out a pick!
    GL!
    Thanks and Gl today
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  6. #6  
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    Could be totally wrong but I don't think the regular season or last couple games
    helps determine the SUPER BOWL winner.

    Bottom line, are you willing to risk significant amount of money against Brady
    and Hoodie?

    NE ML is the play.

    I can't stand NE but have them ML and hedged
    Phil +6x when Line first came out.

    Emotionally for Philly, financially for Pats.

    BOL to all wagers, need Al or Chris to say Goat
    and other silly Prop bets to come in!
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timmy Rules View Post
    Could be totally wrong but I don't think the regular season or last couple games
    helps determine the SUPER BOWL winner.

    Bottom line, are you willing to risk significant amount of money against Brady
    and Hoodie?

    NE ML is the play.

    I can't stand NE but have them ML and hedged
    Phil +6x when Line first came out.

    Emotionally for Philly, financially for Pats.

    BOL to all wagers, need Al or Chris to say Goat
    and other silly Prop bets to come in!
    Thanks for the feedback.

    Yes. I have played Philly and I feel that the risk is based on the defense of the Eagles. Brady is the best, but covering the points is the issue. I also believe that Philly can turn NE into a predictable passing team with the defensive speed. If Brady gets hurried or sacked enough the scoring will be limited.

    ML bets are greater when the line is over 10 in my opinion. But for NE to lose is realistic.

    Hoodie is facing a smart and effective coach for Philly. I don't think he will be out coached at all. He's proven himself with good play calling and preparation with Foles .

    I hope you win both bets today! Split betting is hard to win. I would have played Philly ML and plus the points if I was interested in ML.
    I think there is much more money line bets on NE today than whats on Philly. Plus I believe that vegas is counting on the ML favorites losing.
    They made it attractive enough to get one-sided on ML Patriot bets today on purpose.

    GL today
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  8. #8  
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    Finished NFL at 14-9-1
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