Super Bowl LII betting nuggets
Rob Nelson
Here is a look at some things to know as you bet Super Bowl LII between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots.
All lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
How they got here
The Patriots entered this season as 11-4 favorites to win the Super Bowl. New England has now been the favorite to "win it all" after every week over the last two seasons.
The Patriots went 13-3 during the regular season after entering 2017 with an over/under win total of 12.5. No other team came into this season with a win total over 10.5.
The Eagles entered this season at 40-1 to win the Super Bowl, tied for the 13th-best odds in the NFL. After Carson Wentz tore his ACL in Week 14, Philadelphia's odds dropped from 6-1 to 10-1.
The Eagles went 13-3 during the regular season after entering 2017 with an over/under win total of 8.5. Only the Rams, who went 11-5 with an over/under of six wins, exceeded expectations more than Philadelphia this season.
The Patriots and Eagles are both an NFL-best 12-6 against the spread this season.
Line: Patriots -4
Despite not covering in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots are 28-9 ATS since the start of the 2016 season. New England is 7-1 ATS in games following an ATS loss during this stretch.
The Patriots are 12-3 ATS and 14-1 SU in their past 15 games against teams with a winning record.
The Patriots are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 SU in their past seven games against NFC opponents.
This will mark the 50th consecutive start that Tom Brady is favored in, five shy of the longest streak by a starting quarterback during the Super Bowl era. The Patriots are 32-16-1 ATS and 40-9 during this stretch.
Most Consecutive Games As Favorite - Starting QBs Since 1966
QB STREAK SEASONS
Kurt Warner 55 1999-2003
Tom Brady 50 << 2015-Present
Steve Young 44 1994-1996
Joe Montana 37 1989-1993
>> Including Super Bowl LII
Underdogs are 9-1 ATS with five outright wins this postseason. Those five outright wins are one shy of matching the most in a single postseason during the Super Bowl era.
The Eagles are looking to become the fifth team in NFL history to win outright as an underdog in the divisional round, the conference championship and the Super Bowl during the same postseason. The others were the 2012 Ravens, 2011 Giants, 2007 Giants and 1980 Raiders.
Over/Under: 48.5
The over is 8-2 in the last 10 games that the Eagles entered as an underdog.
The over is 5-1 in Philadelphia's past six games against AFC opponents.
The over is 5-0 in New England's past five games after not playing the previous week.
The over is 4-1 in Brady's five career starts against the Eagles.
Super Bowl history
Underdogs are 25-24-2 ATS, with 19 outright wins, in Super Bowl history. Starting with the Patriots' upset over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, underdogs are 11-5 ATS, with eight outright wins since 2001.
The over is 26-24-1 in Super Bowl history. More recently, the over is 4-1 in the past five Super Bowls.
The Patriots are making their 10th Super Bowl appearance, having previously gone 3-5-1 ATS and 5-4 SU. New England is favored for the seventh straight time in the Super Bowl after having been a double-digit underdog in each its first three appearances.
The Eagles are making their third Super Bowl appearance, having previously gone 1-1 ATS and 0-2 SU.
When these teams met in Super Bowl XXXIX, the Patriots won 24-21 but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. That game went under the closing over/under of 47.5.
This will mark the ninth straight Super Bowl with a closing spread of less than six points. Before this stretch, only four of the previous 24 Super Bowls had a closing spread of less than six points.
First-quarter line: Patriots -0.5, Over/Under 9.5
In seven Super Bowls during the Brady-Belichick era, the Patriots have never scored in the first quarter. New England has also never allowed more than nine points in the opening quarter of those games.
The Eagles have an NFL-best plus-55 scoring margin in the first quarter this season.
Rob Nelson
Here is a look at some things to know as you bet Super Bowl LII between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots.
All lines are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
How they got here
The Patriots entered this season as 11-4 favorites to win the Super Bowl. New England has now been the favorite to "win it all" after every week over the last two seasons.
The Patriots went 13-3 during the regular season after entering 2017 with an over/under win total of 12.5. No other team came into this season with a win total over 10.5.
The Eagles entered this season at 40-1 to win the Super Bowl, tied for the 13th-best odds in the NFL. After Carson Wentz tore his ACL in Week 14, Philadelphia's odds dropped from 6-1 to 10-1.
The Eagles went 13-3 during the regular season after entering 2017 with an over/under win total of 8.5. Only the Rams, who went 11-5 with an over/under of six wins, exceeded expectations more than Philadelphia this season.
The Patriots and Eagles are both an NFL-best 12-6 against the spread this season.
Line: Patriots -4
Despite not covering in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots are 28-9 ATS since the start of the 2016 season. New England is 7-1 ATS in games following an ATS loss during this stretch.
The Patriots are 12-3 ATS and 14-1 SU in their past 15 games against teams with a winning record.
The Patriots are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 SU in their past seven games against NFC opponents.
This will mark the 50th consecutive start that Tom Brady is favored in, five shy of the longest streak by a starting quarterback during the Super Bowl era. The Patriots are 32-16-1 ATS and 40-9 during this stretch.
Most Consecutive Games As Favorite - Starting QBs Since 1966
QB STREAK SEASONS
Kurt Warner 55 1999-2003
Tom Brady 50 << 2015-Present
Steve Young 44 1994-1996
Joe Montana 37 1989-1993
>> Including Super Bowl LII
Underdogs are 9-1 ATS with five outright wins this postseason. Those five outright wins are one shy of matching the most in a single postseason during the Super Bowl era.
The Eagles are looking to become the fifth team in NFL history to win outright as an underdog in the divisional round, the conference championship and the Super Bowl during the same postseason. The others were the 2012 Ravens, 2011 Giants, 2007 Giants and 1980 Raiders.
Over/Under: 48.5
The over is 8-2 in the last 10 games that the Eagles entered as an underdog.
The over is 5-1 in Philadelphia's past six games against AFC opponents.
The over is 5-0 in New England's past five games after not playing the previous week.
The over is 4-1 in Brady's five career starts against the Eagles.
Super Bowl history
Underdogs are 25-24-2 ATS, with 19 outright wins, in Super Bowl history. Starting with the Patriots' upset over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, underdogs are 11-5 ATS, with eight outright wins since 2001.
The over is 26-24-1 in Super Bowl history. More recently, the over is 4-1 in the past five Super Bowls.
The Patriots are making their 10th Super Bowl appearance, having previously gone 3-5-1 ATS and 5-4 SU. New England is favored for the seventh straight time in the Super Bowl after having been a double-digit underdog in each its first three appearances.
The Eagles are making their third Super Bowl appearance, having previously gone 1-1 ATS and 0-2 SU.
When these teams met in Super Bowl XXXIX, the Patriots won 24-21 but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. That game went under the closing over/under of 47.5.
This will mark the ninth straight Super Bowl with a closing spread of less than six points. Before this stretch, only four of the previous 24 Super Bowls had a closing spread of less than six points.
First-quarter line: Patriots -0.5, Over/Under 9.5
In seven Super Bowls during the Brady-Belichick era, the Patriots have never scored in the first quarter. New England has also never allowed more than nine points in the opening quarter of those games.
The Eagles have an NFL-best plus-55 scoring margin in the first quarter this season.
